Shakes
1d ago
So it's some kind of irrational bias?
I have a penis and this physical experience tells me that mutilating it would be extremely bad. I am so confident in my experience that studies and polls where people claim to have benefited from mutilating their penises are unconvincing to me. This is extremely rational.
Certainly there are perverts, according to any reasonable definition, in every letter of LGBT. What I object to is the notion that being trans (or LGB) is in itself a perversion.
Look, I'm gay, I get it. "Perversion" is a normative word. And we can all collectively decide that being gay is normal and being trans is normal and therefore not perverted. And this is a coherent definition and everybody knows what we mean. In fact, this is probably what most people mean at this point.
But also the biological "norm" is for man to reproduce with woman and for man to stay a man. Social convention can't change that. And by any reasonable definition what we're talking about is perverted. We are literally perverting normal biological sex.
Reasonable minds can disagree and this ultimately becomes a mere semantic point in a liberal society. Perversion is accepted, it's a liberal society. It doesn't really matter if we call it perversion or not. But I think it is a perversion. A lot of people think so. And when we try to deny that and act as though there's something wrong with them, that sounds like denial.
Shakes
2d ago
Well, you appear to be saying that let's all be reasonable, let's all agree on something, can't we all let's agree that some trans therapy works for some patients. And I want to be reasonable, so I ask, ok, which trans therapy? And the answer seems to be all of them all the time.
I'm willing to concede that sometimes trans therapy helps some people. This doesn't seem to cost me very much. The standard is merely whether it makes some people feel better, which seems like something almost any treatment could achieve. I think sugar pills would make some people feel better.
But then, is this the most reasonable standard? There are some treatments I would never consider good treatments no matter how many people they made feel better. That's not me trying to argue as such, that's just me trying to be open about how much I'm willing to concede. For instance, I just don't think "having your dick cut off" or vaginoplasty is really a valid form of treatment. I'm not saying this as the result of any evidence about post-op follow-up studies. For me that evidence doesn't even register. You can call me retrograde for this, I won't mind. But I do observe that sometimes people enjoy things that are objectively bad for them. This is what I mean when I use the word "delusional" (which, with apologies, I am not trying to direct at transgender individuals in particular.) There's no limit to what people could convince themselves is good. So at a certain point I stop looking at their own evaluations of whether they feel better and I start substituting my own judgment of the world. Which includes my judgment against vaginoplasty.
But I'm willing to concede that the world is big and that there are a lot of people in it.
And all of the media coverage could have been avoided if people had just treated it as a curiosity and a medical condition, and not some kind of new woke perversion to be fought.
I mean, do you think that there is no perversion in the trans movement at all? Gay rights went through this in the 90s where a significant part of the movement was in fact made up of organizations like the "North American Man-Boy Love Association". And the movement kicked those people out and tried to present itself as "normal". And then the public started to accept it more. And there are still people who dress up in leather on the sidewalk and piss on each other in public. And there are gay activists who declare that they're proud to be perverts and that being perverted is good.
As in, you're trying to fundamentally change what people understand by the basic biological categories of male and female, and not only is that controversial by itself, but there is in fact a lot of deviance within the trans movement. And I don't say that to be mean, I'm sure there are a lot of trans individuals who are basically "normal". But acting as though everything in the movement is totally normal and it's the anti-trans activists who made everything toxic seems like denial as a strategy.
Shakes
3d ago
Define "transition". If transition means teenagers receiving more mental health counseling and hormones that blunt part of the effects of puberty, I'm willing to believe that that helps some people feel better. If transition means some soft boys and girls uncomfortable with their sexual development donning new clothes and personae as they settle into a community of support, I'm willing to believe that that helps some people feel better. If transition means having your dick cut off and turned into an open wound that needs to be constantly dilated, however... I'm not sure I can believe that that really helps anybody. I guess you can always find someone delusional enough to feel better after almost anything. Doesn't the term "Stockholm Syndrome" exist to diagnose a particular case where the objectively bad experience of being kidnapped can be seen by the victim as a good development? What are we being asked to concede here? It's not clear to me.
yet anti-trans activists have been the main publicists of transness for about a decade now – trans people really entered the mainstream with the North Carolina "bathroom bill". It used to be that you would only find information about transness if you went looking for it
... Is that really how you see it? That is not my impression at all. Trans activists deliberately made themselves subject to public scrutiny and public outreach as an attempt to re-enact the classic Civil Rights playbook. LGBT organizations deliberately moved to push trans rights as the next frontier after the success of gay marriage. Liberal activists happily complied and began campaigns to push trans equity groups in corporate spaces and pronouns in professional working environments. Bruce Jenner came out as Caitlyn in 2015. That was the point at which a generation of online debate about trans rights finally bubbled up into the mainstream. Then Jordan Peterson achieved notoriety for refusing to comply with amendments to Canada's Human Rights Act that would compel preferred pronouns. North Carolina's "bathroom bill" in fact was only a response to ordinances from local municipalities that passed pro-trans legal codes first.
Likewise, JK Rowling only started associating with TERF causes after perceived trans excesses that began the whole debate. It isn't as if conservatives woke up and decided that they needed a new scapegoat one day and the trans community was as good a target as any.
If anything, it seems to me like trans activists succeeded in their public outreach, then overreached by doubling down on trans kids. Now that the tide is shifting against trans rights, the movement is unable to admit that their own strategies had anything to do with anything.
Shakes
6d ago
I had mice in my apartment. I guess pest control didn’t solve the problem because they could always come back.
Shakes
7d ago
The centrifuges we knew about were mostly destroyed in the July 2025 12-day war. I'm not aware of any additional centrifuges being destroyed in the 2026 war.
I’m not sure that’s true:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/3/iaea-confirms-some-damage-to-irans-natanz-nuclear-facility
Either way I’m not convinced the relevant details would be public. All the details we could discuss are going to be classified.
My assumption is that the American military knew where all of Iran’s nuclear sites were and bombed them. I don’t know that that translates to 100% destruction but I’m pretty confident we would have gotten most or all of what matters.
In which case, all that’s left is to destroy the remaining nuclear dust.
The sanctions relief and reconstruction funding in the MOU probably moves the date forward by more than this by making it easier for Iran to rebuild the destroyed centrifuges.
They can’t rebuild anything without American satellites and intel knowing about it. And we would just be back here again, and America could bomb them all again.
I think the idea is to break out of the cycle and give Iran a stake in something greater than Nuclear Development. It’s possible it won’t work out, but I don’t think that’s a flaw with the deal as such.
Shakes
7d ago
l think this is somewhere between moon landing conspiracies and Holocaust denialism.
Forget Trump, what was Obama doing trying to restrict Iran’s nuclear programs? This is absurd.
Shakes
7d ago
This is not a “pinky swear”. We destroyed their nuclear facilities and now we are destroying their nuclear material.
Shakes
7d ago
I would dispute even "conditional surrender", at least as far as the Iranian side is concerned. It is (or will or would be) a negotiated peace. Both sides make some concessions, so both sides have some points they can try to sell as victory.
I was with you for the first paragraph.
In your scorekeeping you’re leaving out the major point: Iran’s nuclear weapons program is being destroyed! This was a major explicit goal of US foreign policy for the last 50 years. The centerpiece of Iran’s foreign policy is gone.
Shakes
8d ago
People on this forum were confidently predicting that Iran would toll the strait and this would be evidence that Iran had won. I predicted it would not happen and that this would be evidence that Iran lost.
So far the strait remains untolled.
Shakes
8d ago
upon the implementation of this MoU.
Iran will get temporary waivers until the sanctions expire. The sanctions will expire when a final deal is reached (see point 7).
What quick blow did he strike against North Korea?
We didn’t even get that far because the Norks agreed to talks after Trump threatened them.
Shakes
8d ago
The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon, in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph 7, with the minimum methodology to be down blending on-site, under the supervision of the IAEA.
We destroyed their nuclear facilities and now we’re going to destroy the material that remains.
They'll just pretend they're enriching
Well now you’re just arguing that Iran isn’t going to follow the deal. If that’s the argument it doesn’t even matter if the deal is good or bad.
Shakes
8d ago
We are going to acquire Iran’s nuclear dust and destroy it. Iran will not pursue nuclear weapons. I think this is a huge victory, because it solves one of the largest problems of American foreign policy of the last 50 years.
The money and sanctions and aid are contingent on a round credibly abandoning their nuclear aims.
In fact, Iran will begin to become a normal nation. It will not happen as quickly as it did when we conquered Japan. But that is what is being advanced here. If I ran no longer seeks nuclear weapons, and is no longer pursuing war with its neighbors, why are they our enemy? We can’t exactly become allies overnight. But we can at least figure out what regional problems remain to be discussed, and solve them at the negotiating table. In peace.
This is similar to what Trump did with North Korea, and it’s similar to what Trump did with Venezuela. Neither of those countries can be understood as allies. In fact, they both still pose enormous threats. But they are now working within normal diplomatic relations that fall short of war. And if they continue to cooperate, relations will continue to develop, and then they can become rich.
This is the Trump Doctrine. You establish overwhelming force over an adversary, strike a quick blow, then negotiate.
Shakes
8d ago
but perhaps some plan trusters can help me out.
Sure yeah I'd be happy to.
Iran hands over the uranium and pinkie promises not to make a nuke [...] Those are the kind of things that would make me say the war was a success. Now it's your turn!
The MOU:
The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons.
Shakes
8d ago
The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons.
No toll on the strait, Iran's nuclear material will be destroyed, and diplomatic relations between Iran and America are approaching normal status. Iran's military has been substantially reduced by American bombs. In exchange Iran will be allowed to rejoin the global economic system and begin redevelopment. Matters relating to Israel and broader regional peace will be postponed for the future, but are clearly progressing in a good direction. This is broadly what I have been predicting for months now.
I'm sure that many are going to balk at the $300 Billion and proclaim that this is a bad deal. But if Iran gives up its nuclear program and stops threatening regional war and international trade, the Iran concern is over.
Shakes
8d ago
I've been to Vibecamp a few times so I'll take the opposite side: I don't see the big deal.
I've certainly never seen anything weird at Vibecamp of the kind that is imagined here. If I had seen that, or thought it was a realistic possibility, I would probably change my answer.
However, most of what happens is fairly normal. A large group of twitter nerds and postrats spent a weekend in the woods camping and playing games. There are campfire games and marshmallows. There's are a few traditional entertainments. Usually somebody sets up a "tea room" decked out with mattresses and decorations where everyone lays on the floor. Someone sets up a rotating "secret bar" that starts operating in some hitherto-unused location after the sun sets. Probably somebody is running a workshop where everybody practices writing tweets. There's a cafeteria with regular meals but the food sucks so some campers will set up their own provisions. I became very friendly with the guy who does a crawfish boil every year.
The campground is large and the families who bring their kids are given cabins and tents on one side of it. Adult activities are placed far away at the other end of the camp. And in my experience these two kinds of activity never intersected anyways: the children are long in bed by the time people really start drinking in earnest.
Maybe the good nerds of twitter can't explain themselves without opening broader discussions about morals and sexuality and tolerance of drugs. But in practice it's a little like complaining that the same internet has websites with Bluey and websites with porn.
Shakes
8d ago
Vibecamp just an annual convention where people from this scene rent a campground in the woods for a long weekend and hang out. Dancing, cooking, kayaking, cabins and tents, various workshops and physical games. By "this scene" I mean rationalists, "tpot," tech nerds who read Scott Alexander, etc. A good number of the people there would be familiar with The Motte, although probably not a majority.
Shakes
8d ago
Well, no. The fact that the people who listened to Iranian claims have been proven wrong is good evidence against listening to Iranian claims yet again.
Shakes
8d ago
No my point is that even the rumors of what a “Losing” deal looks like are better than what was confidently predicted three months ago by critics. Iran was supposed to be in control of the straits right now.
Shakes
9d ago
Space datacenters are probably inevitable if we keep increasing the compute power available in space as satellites get cheaper. The question probably is whether it will make anything efficient outside of orbit.
Shakes
9d ago
I actually think this is true across a lot of topics. I observe that leftists generally have a better intuition for beauty than conservatives do -- because liberals know exactly what to deface. I.e., if we participate in a body-positivity movement with slogans like "Health At Every Size," we all know which sizes are being promoted. You don't have to promote that it's ok to be healthy and fit. Likewise the climate genocide paint-throwers will try to deface Van Gogh and Leonardo, not Piss Christ.
Shakes
9d ago
Reality Winner has been a literal pink-hair although not at the time of her arrest.
Shakes
9d ago
A few months ago I was assured that Iran was going to acquire nuclear weapons and toll the strait. Now that that seems unlikely to materialize the unsubstantiated rumor is something else. Because the aim of the war, which is the same thing everyone has said for 30 years, is that Iran could never be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons. Which they are now further away from than ever.
It’s now being alleged in official court documents as well:
https://apnews.com/article/reflecting-pool-liner-cut-national-park-service-trump-98e11bfcb5899753c79bf55698dc958f?taid=6a3d5a134493680001f18a36&utm_campaign=TrueAnthem&utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter
More options
Context Copy link