SophisticatedHillbilly
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User ID: 1964
SophisticatedHillbilly
10mo ago
Like, what is the natural process that results in the probabilistic construction of a jet engine?
Simple: Some self-replicating biological robots gradually improve through natural selection, eventually forming large multicellular organisms, some of which create jet engines as a by-product of reproductive competition and predatory defense. It's more or less the same natural process that creates ambergris, really, differing in only minor details (like evolutionary pathways) that are meaningless on the scales we're talking about. Jet engines are a thing naturally formed by humans in the same sense that boogers are.
It's worth considering that we do, in fact, live in the universe that natural processes formed a jet engine. Of course people seem to draw a (to me) completely arbitrary distinction between our actions and those of a protocell.
Now if the question is "How would a jet engine be naturally formed without going through the natural processes that form jet engines," well the answer is clearly that it wouldn't, the same as nothing, not life, not an engine, not even a simple rock, will simply wink into existence spontaneously.
The make-it-or-break-it question at hand with abiogenesis isn't "what are the odds of this?" it's "is this the natural process via which life is formed?" The research seems to be gradually moving towards showing that yes, it is, but we also definitely aren't there yet.
SophisticatedHillbilly
10mo ago
As someone with 4 siblings and who ideally wants 12 children of my own (my father had 11 siblings!) I think I can offer some perspective. Me and my siblings are basically going through the gamut of possibilities, which I find very interesting
My eldest brother moved away, currently works in some sort of research support role, and is part of a poly-amorous relationship. He drank the Blue-aid as deeply as possible, and he has no intentions of ever having children. If pushed he'll say something like "when I can afford it," but he doesn't seem to be too interested in saving up to do so. He takes international vacations, he lives in the core of a big city, and he spends what he makes. He is also perpetually miserable, God knows why.
My second eldest brother is severely physically disabled, and he has no real shot at procreation. He exists by still living in the childhood home, cared for by our mother. Sad, but he does okay. He actually tries his hand at creative projects quite frequently, but he's not particularly capable mentally either (though not retarded.)
My younger brother is the only one of the family who grappled with the challenges to religion and kept the faith, and he is in the process of steadily working himself into a well-paying trade job, buying some land in the middle of no-where, and intends to have a large family with the girlfriend he has had since he was a young teenager.
Then there is my younger sister. She wants to farm, and she does so. By the age of 10 she had convinced her parents to buy her a few dairy goats, which is now a sizable herd with impeccable lineage. She has maintained a rigorous schedule for as long as I remember, and refuses to break it for anything. I don't know what her plans are for children. I don't know if she's considered them. She just wants to farm.
Then there's me. I intended to become a journalist, run away to a foreign country, and experience interesting places and things. Once I learned that the whole field was rotten, discovered I hate working for other people and returned home, I have gradually grown in my desire to have children. I think part of it is being around a place where I have childhood memories. Part of it is knowing that I can bring them into a world where they have a future of something better than [school (which I hated and was worthless) --> college (same) --> Drone job (same).] Part of it may be reconnecting with family history, which I have records of going back a straight 130 years (not just names, but business records, letters, all sorts of things.)
More than anything though, I think my desire just grew as I began to hate life less. All these convoluted schemes seem to be missing the core idea that "people who are miserable and think life is meaningless don't really want to perpetuate that." But that's getting too into my own analysis, which I can share separately if anyone cares.
SophisticatedHillbilly
10mo ago
The issue with this I think is that they don't have to be. Many of the costs of children provide no net benefit to anyone in the long run and you can simply not pay them. Maybe people don't know this? Perhaps simply a nationwide education program about it would suffice.
Effectively all of them. Getting kids into expensive private schools? Twin studies have demonstrated them to be pointless. They end up exactly as successful and happy by the age of 35 regardless. This is also true of special early education, fancy extracurriculars, cool vacations, neat gadgets, a nice first car etc. This is all generally verifiable from twin studies. Nature wins, nurture... sort of helps, at least as far as "don't lock your kids in a basement and starve them."
As someone who personally grew up for extended periods of time without running water or electricity it was just sort of fine. Didn't really have a massive impact on my life, got me outside more, spent some more time with friends, etc. Occasionally annoying but like: you wash your hands in a bucket instead of the sink, you haul drinking water from the well (exercise), and you don't brain-drain in front of a screen. Frankly seems pleasant compared to how my college roommates lived.
You want to have your kids do better than you? Marry up, don't starve them, provide a very basic level of opportunity, and you're good to go. The sad reality of parenthood is there's very little you can do. The apple doesn't fall far from the tree. It's been known for a long, long time.
That basically leaves as expenses: diapers, food, gas for driving them to school, clothes. That's practically covered by tax benefits alone. Medical expenses are a legitimate concern, but they can be dealt with (or just ignored, if you're lower class and have already acquired a mortgage!) If the wife's career is an issue, I can't really speak to that. That's just never been an issue in any of the relationships I've known as all the women happily jumped on being a stay-at-home-mom when it was an option (as my own girlfriend wants to, and is ready to drop her career plans at a moments notice,) so I've no experience with it.
I'm phone-posting, but for sources I'd look into 'Selfish Reasons' For Parents To Enjoy Having Kids by Brian Caplan, which is very good, and just general twin studies. SSC has some good old posts about it as well I believe if you dig.
SophisticatedHillbilly
10mo ago
This is extra true of those murders which, especially in the southeastern US, have little connection to other crime. Most murders there are a personal feud sort of thing, or a "you fucked my girlfriend" sort of thing. Totally expected and seen as very reasonable in local circles. Very different than gang activity, robberies that go wrong, etc.
SophisticatedHillbilly
10mo ago
Any explanation of the Christmas Effect that's faster than 1.5 hours?
SophisticatedHillbilly
10mo ago
Sometimes men and women behave the same, instead of differently - what then?
Now this is an honest question and not meant to be snarky: When?
I just genuinely cannot think of a single situation in which men and women behave the same. Not one. Not when studying in school, not when walking to the bathroom, not when sitting down for lunch, not when speaking in a business meeting. Maybe I'm just not thinking broadly enough?
Currently though, I'm liable to think the proper heuristic is "men and women literally never behave the same in any situation ever, and if anyone says they do they're either smoothing over differences or autistic." If there are some weird exceptions then those seem to fall more under the "exception that proves the rule" than anything else.
This doesn't give unlimited explanatory power, but it does require every single generalization about people to be split into two more specific generalizations, which I feel will cleave reality much closer to the joints.
SophisticatedHillbilly
10mo ago
Which shouldn't be exceptionally surprising. Men aren't significantly more likely to molest children, I believe, once you account for reduced reporting rates among male victims of female molestation.
This seems to line up with that, taking into account the naturally higher rate of homosexual attraction among women, which pads the numbers somewhat.
SophisticatedHillbilly
10mo ago
There are two prongs to this:
1: Yes, citizens spreading their ideology is legitimate. It can also be evil, if the ideology is evil. Whether legal or not, evil should be combated, especially when it personally influences one's children. The debate then is whether the LGBT ideology is evil. It would also be legitimate for citizens to spread Nazism, but that would be evil, and I would like it fought however possible.
2: The issues around schools are entirely separate from what is considered for citizens to do. It is legitimate for someone who works as a teacher to spread their ideology, but not in their capacity as a public school teacher. It would not be acceptable for a public school teacher to secretly teach their students about God, hold prayers, tell them to hide it from their parents, bring in crosses for the kids to wear etc. The same goes for any LGBT ideology.
SophisticatedHillbilly
10mo ago
What is the absolute cheapest way to acquire a decent house? Money is tight, but me and the girl are tired of living in an RV, and we're ready to upsize. Land isn't a concern because we have a family property, but it needs to last awhile and it needs to be larger than the 350 sq ft (!) we currently live in. I've been looking at the following options:
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Construct an A-Frame house. These seem solid, but the cost is somewhat prohibitive, at somewhere around 25k with me performing a significant amount of the labor. Not a huge fan of the shape either, as it seems to be pretty bad conceptually in the cost-vs-space sense.
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Do one of these sort of things: https://www.steelmasterusa.com/quonset-huts/. Cost seems comparable to the A-frame, but for more space and durability
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Buy a used mobile home. They can be surprisingly cheap. As low as free, actually. They won't last more than probably a decade, but hey, that's a future problem. Size is disappointing, but not unbearable. I grew up in a mobile home after all.
Any other ideas? Any actual home construction seems to move it into the 200k range, which seems not worth it to me relative to the steel building setup, though I'm open to other opinions.
SophisticatedHillbilly
10mo ago
Additionally, many who would report themselves as paycheck-to-paycheck have assets and are saving money. A friend of mine describes himself as such while putting 30% of his money into an investment account each check. To him, that money does not count because it is not available for spending (by his self imposed rules).
SophisticatedHillbilly
10mo ago
I think the Native Americans serve as a great second example. Forcefully immigrated? Not exactly. Forcefully moved and made part of the US? Definitely. The fact they also do poorly is a second data point in favor.
SophisticatedHillbilly
9mo ago
From my experience working in a job where the use of the quotes feature was vital: Google will randomly and without warning place users into experimental variations of their features as a form of A/B testing. If you get placed in the "Google prioritizes words in quotes" user bucket and not the "Google demands exact string match of words in quote" bucket, your search won't turn up the exact results and you're just out of luck.
I managed to escalate this issue quite high into Google support at one point, and the above was more or less everything they told me. Was quite stressful when I needed the exact match for my job.
SophisticatedHillbilly
9mo ago
To take it a step further: I happen to know someone who is either a billionaire or quite close to it (I believe he recently complained that his net worth had fallen just under the billion mark due to some supply chain issue) and is still absolutely not elite in any way. His money is in agriculture, and he is very 'country' in his mannerisms. I do think a world where he'd get to be 'in the room where it happens' would be a better one, but he doesn't act the part of the right sort of person, so he's just wealthy and subject to the whims of the worthless social-gamers.
SophisticatedHillbilly
9mo ago
Now unlike the above, this is merely "something I read somewhere at some point" and not official, but:
I've read that it's worse than that. They've frequently messed around with search function, and how they evaluate the changes is how many searches a user makes. I.e, if you type in a search, immediately find what you need, and leave Google, that's bad, while you search 4 or 5 times to get Google to finally show what you wanted, that's good.
The A/B testing is specifically trying to make the experience worse for users.
SophisticatedHillbilly
9mo ago
Good to know, and I'll take your word for it over random-poster-on-other-forum.
SophisticatedHillbilly
9mo ago
Admittedly it's been years since my experience with it, but I don't recall that being an option at the time. Could've just missed it though. Thank you for mentioning it, it'll likely help me out in the future.
SophisticatedHillbilly
9mo ago
I wouldn't say they're bad per se, rather that they're a stabilizing agent. If there were only strong men, there would be no society at all, as there wouldn't be enough of the type who mindlessly upholds status quo. Too many however, and no necessary advancement and adaptation can occur.
They're the stabilizing rods of the great nuclear reaction we call society. Too few and it explodes, too many and you choke out the necessary chain reactions.
SophisticatedHillbilly
9mo ago
The counter would be that, in determining how much society offers various parties, it should matter how many people go against our most basic urge to survive because they think the deal is just that bad. One side opting out vastly more is important data.
This does create the rather intuitive answer that impoverished black men on average get a better 'deal' than the average middle-class white woman.
SophisticatedHillbilly
9mo ago
Consider two identical twins. The parents force one twin to get good grades, play sports, practice piano, etc. The other twin is completely ignored and follows his base instincts (video games, probably). Unsurprisingly the first twin ends up with better life outcomes,
So I don't disagree with your actual point, but twin studies tend to converge on the idea that these twins will actually have roughly the same life outcomes.
SophisticatedHillbilly
9mo ago
There's always the sticky question of how to define "success", however. Some would say that a small-government US with a much lower GDP and less international power (but still #1), but much more personal freedom, local political control etc is more successful than a richer, stronger, less free US.
SophisticatedHillbilly
9mo ago
I think part of the issue is weird occurrences that have no satisfying explanations given, which people can then attribute to their own pet theory.
Take the Phoenix Lights for example. Super weird, seen by millions, and the only explanations given are "aliens!" and "super secret weird government shit." Given that to many people these are more or less the same thing, or at least connected, you end up with a lot of people that can then point to the Phoenix Lights as evidence of aliens.
Most serious alien believers are, in my experience, equally willing to accept "the government engages in numerous weird programs and experiments, often testing them on the unwitting public (or at least exposing members of the public to them) MK Ultra style," to explain these weird events as much as they will accept aliens, or demons, or synchronicities or kabbalah or whatever.
What they won't accept is "none of that happened, pay no attention to the strange occurrences, nothing happens that is not publicly available information."
SophisticatedHillbilly
9mo ago
People repeat this a lot but the only explanation I see for it is that the left keeps fighting and the right just doesn't. If you don't like the left that's bad I guess, but it rarely seems to be used to support the more general point: you have to actually expend effort for your beliefs to win, and you have to keep doing that forever or your beliefs die. "Blood of tyrants" and all that.
Without that, it always just feels like whining that other people actually try.
SophisticatedHillbilly
9mo ago
which is absolutely howl-worthy when you consider how convenient it was that there were clear and obvious miracles right up till the point we could properly document and examine them.
Well yes, because if they're not documentable, they don't eliminate the need for faith. If they are, then they would, so they don't happen.
I don't even necessarily disagree with you, but this is just a terrible point. It's countered by the very argument it's trying to address.
Is that not the employers fault for firing someone for such an absurd reason? I find it hard to blame the teens for that particular aspect of this.
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