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Stefferi

Chief Suomiposter

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joined 2022 September 04 20:29:13 UTC

https://alakasa.substack.com/

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User ID: 137

Stefferi

Chief Suomiposter

7 followers   follows 0 users   joined 2022 September 04 20:29:13 UTC

					
				

				

				

				

				

					

User ID: 137

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What would there be for the Dems to gain for hiding Biden's death?

I'm reminded of the time when Kate Middleton went on an extended media hiatus and the odd behavior by the British royals around it led to a host of conspiracy theories, ranging from relatively benign "they're divorced" to the raving ones like "They've harvested her for organs to keep King Charles alive". Or when Putin was absent from publicity for some time in late 2022 and there was fervent speculation that he had died and there was a power struggle in Kremlin. In both cases the supposedly dead party eventually turned up and the speculators, well, at least didn't come out looking so good afterwards.

Of course it is entirely possibly that it does turn out that Biden has died or been seriously incapacitated by Covid, but again, why wouldn't they just come right out with it to get sympathy points and make Kamala's road to nomination even easier?

It's also quite likely that Republicans were implicitly or explicitly saying that Joe is demented long before he was actually exhibiting signs of it, which must have created a bit of a boy-cries-wolf effect for many Dems.

In a way, though, I rather envy the Democrats' ability to snap quickly into place around a candidate, utterly unbothered by whatever claims they made or positions they staked out a mere week ago.

Republicans demonstrated much the same ability in 2016, though, albeit on a longer schedule.

It became a moot issue fairly quickly anyway, as Bill and Hillary were some of the first major figures to endorse Kamala.

The tacit (and heavily papered-over) admission that Biden will not be fit to serve as President in January is also, I think, effectively an admission that he should probably have been removed from office for disability months, if not years, ago.

They could go with "Biden still has enough juice to serve until 2025, but does not have enough juice that it would have last until 2029." Dunno how true it is, but they COULD go with that, and probably will.

About it not happening.

That I was wrong?

I have never seen any evidence that Harris has the intelligence or insight required to lead a nation.

Does Trump?

I don't think this switch will be good for the Dems (Biden staying would also not have been good for them, it's a no-win situation), but at least they can now make the instant switcheroo to "It's Trump who is old and demented, HE should drop out now".

The only thing this chatter proves is that Hillary Derangement Syndrome is still going strong. A number of Republicans just can't let go of a long-time enemy, to the point of fantasizing about facing her yet again and again.

Heard much the same from a programmer friend.

I incidentally just learned about the Okta breach yesterday simply by getting frustrated with it and searching on Twitter evidence on whether everyone else hates using it continuously as much as I do.

Possibly a part of the explanation, too.

Interestingly this crash has seemingly barely affected Finnish businesses and organizations at all (apart from cases where they have projects with foreign companies, of course). Apparently there were some minor glitches at the system of the bank I use, but I didn't notice it at all.

I wonder if it's simply that Finnish companies are patriotically committed to using F-Secure/WithSecure solutions above all others...

This is, quite honestly, probably one of the biggest pluses of a national governmental health insurance system. The left-halvers, whatever the situation, can contact a health centre and hope to get whatever their problem is fixed without dealing with an opaque jungle of insurance stuff (and in my experience even if you have private supplemental insurance it's quite easy compared to what Americans seem to go through in these horror stories). Not only good for the left-halvers themselves, also good for the workers or whoever it is that has to be in charge of explaining this stuff in a more complicated system.

If it happens this way it would essentially make the Dems a semiparliamentary party, one where a gaggle of congressional and ideological leaders can force out a sitting president on a relatively short notice despite not actually having the backing of primaries or anything like that for it, quite like Truss, for instance, was forced out of Tory leadership on short notice after the economic shock. Republicans, meanwhile, are now in uncommonly strong grip of their nominee, at least if these reports are be believed, with Trump easily steamrolling whatever religious conservatives there are to completely rewrite the party's language on abortion and SSM.

Which is a better way to lead a party? Dunno, but the Republican model, with its forceful leadership, would probably seem the more popular one, especially when talking about a singular executive who is expected to possess forceful leadership in general.

No, not really, from what I’ve seen. A small subsection that is in the process of forming itseld into a tribe of its own does.

One non-assassination-related explanation could be that someone got an inside tip… of Musk announcing he’s going all in for Trump (ie 45 million donated per month) and took it as indication of a quid-pro-quo deal where Trump returns to Twitter, which would of course kill Truth Social instantly.

Particularly since it was entirely possibly that Trump would spring a surprise veep announcement or that the veep candidate would even accompany him on stage.

Stephen Fry wrote a novel with a scenario where a time traveler basically cancels Hitler from history and it just means a smarter Hitler alternative takes over and actually manages to wipe the Jews out.

Tenacious D, and Kyle’s role in it, play to a very obvious male fantasy. You’re a normal schlubby guy who can play a bit of guitar, and all of sudden a Real Live Superstar who oozes charisma picks you up and makes you a celeb as well.

he keeps saying kind of as a joke that you’re a king among men and a sex god and what do you know, a bit of it rubs on you as well. Guys see you on the street and go ‘Heyyyy, Rage Kage! Love you man!’ You can probably get cute women with a fair bit of ease despite, again, being a schlub.

Of course, it’s also knowingly a role Kyle has assumed and built together with Jack Black, but it’s a fantasy, that doesn’t matter. There are obvious dividends for Jack as well, as can be seen from how many guys are angry at Jack for betraying his friend.

Minor celebrity Kyle Gass, who isn't particularly politically important, might have gotten away with it being a dark joke, but megastar Jack Black, who has frequently stumped for political causes, being involved means that it's on another level.

If there's a civil war, the battle lines aren't going to fall along neat ideological lines and a lot will depend on which military units stationed wherever will side with whichever side. If you look at the Spanish Civil War battle lines (with the caveat that they moved a lot, of course) and compare them with the preceeding election, there are parts where the Nationalist/Republican territories match the left/right election map and parts where they don't.

Fico's assassination didn't happen during a national election campaign. You could argue that it happened close to European elections cycle, at least, but the European elections have their own logic due to low voting rates and aren't treated as a "real" election nearly to the same degree as national elections are.

A better comparison would be Bolsonaro in 2018, who was IIRC behind in polls but cinched a Victory after the assassination attempt.

At least one explanation I've seen that it tries to convey that it's ok to use both she/her and they/them. Presumably there's a bunch of potential ways it's used.