The_Golem101
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User ID: 548
The_Golem101
17d ago
Fair, but I feel you've missed the important detail that lots of the polling holds implicit but might not be obvious - Ukrainians who want a negotiated end to the war/freezing along current lines are supporting ongoing fighting until that is achieved by definition, the option in the poll for taking Russia's current offer is defined as "capitulation".
It's maybe a subtle point, but hugely important, in a sense you're right, it's capitulation to outsiders as they would end up with less territory, but it's also fighting until Russia is forced to accept the Ukrainian red lines, security agreements or whatever ends up in there. It's a very important distinction to the population and why many are fighting so hard - to give the best chance that this is an end to the war, not a temporary pause.
The_Golem101
17d ago
Coffee, I really like some of your writing, which is why I write all this and why your denial of Bucha is so strange, it makes me question everything else you say, and so it’s worth focusing on.
The timeline makes the Ukrainian-perpetrator theory physically impossible. Russia’s Defense Ministry of course claimed the bodies had been placed on the streets after Russian units fully withdrew from Bucha around March 30, but commercial satellite imagery shows otherwise. In addition, a video filmed by a local council member on April 1 shows multiple bodies along Yablonska Street, and Maxar imagery shows at least 11 of them had been there since March 11, when Russia, by its own account, occupied the town. Many bodies in the satellite images also sit in the exact positions seen in the street-level footage, it literally cannot be faked. We also have signal intercepts, identified Russians, eye witness accounts that match the above, and Ukraine flew in independent forensics teams to avoid exactly this denial, but that’s just flogging a dead horse.
Russian soldiers raped mothers in front of their kids and killed them, shot people in the street and hung them from lampposts, and all without much caring to hide it. The fact that you persist in believing Ukraine somehow did it instead suggests that either your priors are to accept whatever Russia says, no matter how incredible, or that you wish others to. That may seem uncharitable, but it is the only conclusion I am left with given the strength of the evidence.
However, on your other points quickly:
the Russian soldier raped by Kadyrov's troops
Meduza says that was fabricated, do you have a better source?
The evidence we have is a Russian telegram chat from a soldier group, a photo of a dead body, and a note saying all of the above. I do not see any Meduza debunking, maybe they have more information but it seems hard to know what other evidence could surface other than the above. It seems perfectly believable given the endemic rape in the Russian military (as we discussed before), the use of Chechens as barrier troops and to cow their Christian charges, and the hatred Chechens have of Russians, but I guess your priors vary.
Nothing approaching the horror of bombing 100 schoolchildren
I am not sure what this refers to? I see Russia claimed there was a single strike that killed 21 schoolchildren in Luhansk, without the evidence like names, interviews etc that Ukraine provides for similar cases (but its possible) while Ukraine claimed it hit a school building being used for training by the Rubicon drone unit. I see no claims of 100 schoolgirls? This may actually have killed schoolchildren and been a mistaken target. Russia by contrast has definitely killed at least 760+ confirmed Ukrainian schoolchildren, and raped, kidnapped and abused many more. So, again, nothing Ukraine has done this war comes close to approaching the horror of common Russian actions, the worst case is well below a Tuesday for them, your point is perfectly inverted and really weird.
Zelensky supporting the UPA was retarded, and he's not a great politician in some regards, agree with you there. However, those deaths don't carry forwards from the 40s to invalidate Ukraine fighting Russia today.
In terms of Muslims in Moscow, your own sources say the lower bound is 300,000, but that has to be an underestimate as it's a 2010 figure of only permanent residency. The real number probably exceeds 2 million using your own source there, but also ones like this. Paris is burning, Russia had many terrorist attacks (including in 2024), and I would be surprised if the base rate of attacks in Moscow is lower than in similar cities with similar muslim populations, it's more of the same rather than Russia finding some solution.
Hi Shrike -
Possibly a bit clumsy wording by me there. I didn't mean that Belarus and Ukraine are literally at the same level of income, rather that there is a clear bifurcation in the post Soviet states - those who moved into a Western, EU orbit became much more wealthy, those who stayed stuck in a Russian orbit were much poorer, while those like Hungary that went one way then moved towards a Russian type patronage model for a protracted time saw their growth collapse versus neighbors.
Ukraine is poorer than Russia, and Belarus - stuck in the Russian orbit without significant hydrocarbon revenues or Russia's heavy subsidies of Belraus and Ukraine's post Soviet heavy industry had a much harder job adapting than Belarus' agriculture. Plus, all three have a deep oligarch problem, which Ukraine will have to deal with.
My contention is that a future Ukraine in the western system has no reason why it can't achieve something like Poland or the Baltics, and they know it - that was the literal trigger for Maidan. Honestly, they could probably have a higher HDI/GDP per capita than Russia, even without any hydrocarbons, that's what Poland proved as a reference class.
There's actually a lot of really good publications and papers on how Russia's economy functions - I really like those on the rent management system and they were super useful when I did economics over there. I think Gaddy and Ickes are really readable too, but there are others!
The most recent data does show Ukrainians have largely given up on outright military victory and want a negotiated end, but they overwhelmingly reject terms that amount to capitulation. The dominant position is a third option: freeze the war on roughly the current line, without legally giving up territory or disarming, still fighting. All of those require fighting Russia to a standstill, and are based on the assumption that is the correct thing for Ukraine. I am perfectly aware of the polls, they match my descriptions above, and Zelensky's challengers are attacking him from that position, there is no popular capitulation position. What's your "trust me bro" information I'm missing?
The_Golem101
18d ago
Pork, I know Ukrainians, I have relatives fighting, and the poem "The beginnings" applies to all of them. I'm British but the force of the Ukrainian's fury would impress Kipling, and I would not want to be a Russian over the next few decades after their sowing of the wind.
As per reality, I can strongly predict reality based upon all of what I posted, for example the pro/anti war/Russia direction of Zelensky's future challenger. Would you make a prediction there?
The UK had a similar level of conscription in WW2, what does that prove? Did you think that after Coventry and London that we wanted peace? Gently, where is any of what you are saying coming from other than vibes?
Coffee, people pointed out before how totally insane your take of: "Russians are actually based and trad" is, but I guess it's my turn, again:
You remember that Moscow has an official Muslim population in the 1-2 million range, comparable with Paris, and rising, plus many more unofficial migrants push it much higher. Relations are not great, with many past terrorist attacks. You might say the same about the west, but this is the same story, not a solution by the Russians.
Russia's elite is wildly corrupt, stealing from its own population rampantly in a way that would make Alex Jones' theories of elite misbehavior look tame. Their model has kept Ukraine and Belarus edit poor versus their more west leaning compatriots, and only oil revenues sustain them - they have no economic theory or model for flourishing worth exporting, and everyone knows it. Ukrainians knew this well before Maidan, but that is what pushed them over the edge, they aspire to be Poland or the Baltics, not a vassal of a shitty larp of a rotting pretend trad state.
Don't let yourself be ruled over those who hate you is the best red tribe advice I've read on here, and it cut to my heart. The Ukrainians know it, I'm confused how you miss it? They seem pretty based to me.
We also have many war crime incidents in the war, both by and inflicted onto Russians - who immediately upon entering Ukraine killed civilians and looted almost at random. Remember, this while they were told Ukrainians would fold, welcome them and it would be over in weeks - why can't you see these people are not in any way people you want near your family or those you love, and I would pay serious blood and treasure to keep that it way?
Once again (as you did not reply before), possibly the incident most be interested in was the Russian soldier raped by Kadyrov's troops who are used as barrier troops and left to run rampant over their Christian charges, who then hung himself. Not sure if you read Russian, but a rough translation is: "Goodbye. love, in the time that I am here I have seen hell. There were not so many deaths in Chechnya or even Afganistan. seas of human meat. but that is not why i depart. We here, Russian people, are nobody, and Chechens rule. They drink, are lawless and rape, they despise everyone and no ones doing anything about it. Kitty, they took all the money you sent and they did a thing to me. This is to let you know that I resisted. Remember that you and me owe nothing to anyone. This is the only way out. See you after death". That's your positive influence for resisting Muslim influence?
The_Golem101
18d ago
Ukrainians: I would like to fight.
Allies: We can support you in that effort
Porkpiehat: EXCUSE ME, isn't there someone you forgot to ask?
My brother, the Ukrainians have, with a massive majority, chosen to fight. The only opposition to Zelensky comes from a position of wanting more efforts to fight, based around those who have other ideas on how to fight. They really, honestly, truly, want to do it, I promise you from personal experience. Zelensky isn't forcing them to against their will, he's riding a tiger and likely to be voted out post war for his failings here. Some have left the country, some will return, but those who remain strongly think the best future for Ukraine is by breaking Russia, and truly think they can.
Kind of based. I'm confused by those who can't see that.
Coffee, I come back to this, because you are absolutely better than this. As I see your points, and please do others jump in if I have lacked charity or understanding:
I do not believe Azov, who are not load bearing to any of this. I believe the evidence provided in my reply to you, primarily the satellite footage released days in advance of Ukraine retaking Bucha and can date the executions to post any early fighting, and also matches footage taken prior to the retaking of the city and exactly matches the patterns of bodies found once it was retaken. That's a hilariously high bar of evidence, and if it was the other way around for Azov you would correctly be calling it out, and you have claimed events prior on far far shakier evidence. Russian soldiers ran rampant over civilians they had power over, none of which is built upon needing to believe a single word of Azov.
Why do you even like the Russians here? Why can't Bucha be a terrible failure and a mistake by units gone rogue for you?
Anyway, on our other notes:
Your Meduza link shows that there are other allegations versus mine that Chechens raped, DNR soldiers this time, but that neither of them have been disproven? Are you agreeing with me?
And your source that 3% of the respondents were muslim, in line with the lower bound i mentioned, but that 65% of residents express that religion is important and 36% of them Islam is the most important? In a city of like 13 million? Do you see a slight pickle even in the narrow survey that the massive irregular population is not going to be well covered by? That there may be quite a few Muslims in Moscow isn't some weird conspiracy, who do you think is launching all the terrorist attacks?
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