ThenElection
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User ID: 622
ThenElection
6d ago
We believe in pluralism. Regardless of if you're a fan of Scott Weiner or Connie Chan, you're welcome in our big tent.
ThenElection
6d ago
Main character syndrome. Even the founding of Anthropic itself was an error (maybe the fundamental error) from a safety point of view: having some differences of opinion around product safety decisions is not a reason to start a rival lab creating exactly the kind of competitive dynamics people have warned about for decades.
ThenElection
6d ago
Yud had a bit on Twitter about that today:
I note, because I think that even now it still matters: On my history, EAs generally and Amodei specifically, indulged in politically polarizing "AI safety" in a leftist direction, because that got them short-term power; stymieing others' attempts to stay right-left neutral.
ThenElection
6d ago
I doubt the Left would be much better; it's deeply convinced that LLMs are just Gebru/Bender style racist stochastic parrots being pushed by NFT tech bros that have zero value of any sort, and existential safety is just a TESCREAL distraction from the real threats of climate change and Trump. On the whole, safety seems deeply out of fashion; if anything, people have updated against AI safety in the wake of the HF incident, which is just wild.
The only place existential safety oriented folks have a lot of sway is, ironically, OpenAI and Anthropic. sama is kind of a cypher, but safety is something he takes more seriously than you give him credit for, sandboxing incompetence aside. (A spicy take: he's objectively better for safety than Dario, because he's socially fluent enough not to alienate every potential ally or future collaborator.)
I'll wait for the S-1 to decide for sure, but most likely yes, up to 5% of my portfolio.
Why not more? I have a high degree of conviction that AI will radically accelerate the economy (mod any paperclip effects), but I'm much less sure on who will reap most of the benefits. I could see anything from Ant/OAI/GOOG individually taking it all, to an oligopoly, to it diffusing through the economy with relatively few rents accruing to the labs as intelligence is commoditized. And there is a built in cap to returns: even (or especially) if everything goes perfectly according to plan for Ant, they will become the number one target for redistribution, and short of Dario overthrowing the government, he'll be asked to share with everyone else. Someone's X% ownership of Ant is not going to be getting them X% of the light cone.
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