IB analyst/associate is a fake job to give 22 year olds a few years to learn some basic professionalism and finance skills. After a few years of polishing they move on to a somewhat more real job (real in the sense that they’re doing something with real-world consequences, not necessarily socially useful) like PE or more senior banker.
Banks provide this training for various reasons discussed downthread but it’s not surprising that as revenue decreases they start cutting back. They don’t want to announce to clients that they’ve been charging them to train Harvard grads with fancy finance jobs for even fancier finance jobs all this time, so instead they pretend it’s about AI. I am skeptical that LLMs are actually good at doing what junior bankers do, rather, what junior bankers do is close to pointless.
So I'd like people with more domain knowledge to weigh in on what aspects of these financial jobs are liable to be automated today and what the forecast for the field is like.
The classic IB/PE role/career track will definitely survive. I don’t think AI/LLM is very relevant to what a more senior person does. Junior roles are cyclical (related to the state of the economy, not AI developments). Back-office or support-type roles like IT will probably be most impacted for the same reason that these kinds of roles will be impacted economy-wide.
Tomato
25d ago
Fortunately none of them were raped, but it goes way beyond the MRA strawman of “trying to flirt while being unattractive.”
Tomato
25d ago
it doesn’t reach the men it’s supposed to reach, and only reaches men who don’t need feminist messages in the first place
This is asserted a lot in spaces like this with a kind of nerd-smugness but I don’t think it’s true. Why would one expect the proverbially socially adept frat bro who never heard of /ssc/ to have worse social awareness than the only-rarely-interacts-with-women loser who receives this messaging? My Bay Area female friends/fwbs/hookups/etc have showed me plenty of receipts from respectable seeming nerds who very clearly need some social education.
Having commuted past the rival Palestine and Israel protest tents for most of their existence, I can say that the account in this story is hilariously overwrought and overdramatized.
Many people are anti Zionist to some degree. It’s not an extreme view. I guess if you’ve grown up in a particular bubble this might come as a shock to you as you enter the real world.
Tomato
1mo ago
shadowstats
For anyone reading this be aware that shadowstats is extremely fake and gay.
https://www.fullstackeconomics.com/p/no-the-real-inflation-rate-isnt-14-percent
Tomato
1mo ago
I saw some statistics lately suggesting that the vast bulk of job growth has been for recent immigrants. American citizens are actually experiencing a mild job loss. I'd wanted to write a top-level about it, but I had no computer at hand.
This stat is pushed around in various right-wing and conspiratorial circles online but it is fully explained by the fact that natives are older than immigrants and are aging out of the workforce. Unemployment among prime working age native adults is near historic lows and their workforce participation rates are very high.
Tomato
1mo ago
Real incomes for the lowest earners have risen much faster than real incomes for higher earners. Higher earners are noticing that the cheap servant they used to pay to deliver their doordash is earning more money.
Tomato
1mo ago
You can’t borrow real things from the future, and when people are discussing the economy being good they are talking about real consumption, investment, etc.
Tomato
1mo ago
I’m 40. If you denominate those prices in hours worked you should be much better off, unless you are facing a major and unusual skill issue.
Tomato
1mo ago
This comment kind of perfectly encapsulates what I’m saying. Everything you’re saying about the state of the economy, for example, is just wrong and easily disprovable from tons of independent data sources.
Tomato
1mo ago
As a dirty dozen but not politically obsessed elite, I unironically believe most voters are just uninformed and not really equipped to think about certain important issues like climate change or immigration. The typical voter can’t articulate what an externality is or reliably identify one in nature. The typical voter has empirically incorrect ideas about immigration and its connection to crime and the economy. I’m not in the politically obsessed “we should cheat at elections” camp but I do firmly believe the current US government is doing an outstanding job all things considered and people who disagree either have incoherent ideas about what’s going on or are politically motivated and think that because Trump isn’t president, the economy must be bad. I think Biden is old but I don’t care because the deep state is benign and competent, so I hope he and his crew win.
Tomato
2mo ago
What happens when the whining is so intense that it actually distorts people's perception of reality?
Have you considered that you’re affected by the same thing? Honestly everything you wrote sounds like a really unhinged rightoid conspiracy theory to me. Maybe this is just evidence that everyone’s brain is broken.
Tomato
2mo ago
It feels like the left, or at least the leftists in my life, are taking an infantile tactic: we better win or we'll whine and complain for 4 years.
From my position as a moderately liberal griller this sounds like exactly what the right did after Trump lost: whining about stolen elections, utterly and embarrassingly paralyzing Congress, leading half the country into a fact-free conspiracy fantasy land, and so on.
Scott was absolutely correct here in how it played out.
?? Biden has been extremely moderate and a bunch of far left cultural elements seem to be coming to heel. What’s going on in the movie you’re watching?
Tomato
2mo ago
I think you visit cities incorrectly. Before I was married my trick was to go on a dating app and arrange a couple dates with locals. You’ll meet in some real neighborhood, go to a nice bar, see where people actually live, and get laid if you play your cards right. The last time I was in Seattle, a bit post pandemic, I had a really fabulous time. Lovely city, lovely people.
Same in SF, same in LA, same in San Diego.
Tomato
3mo ago
Are modern women just that impulsive when feeling unhappy in a marriage? Or misled? Do they have illusions about singlehood?
Why isn’t the most direct explanation—that many women are unhappy in their marriages and leave because of that—on the table?
Everyone who bothered to chime in seemed to agree with the notion that divorce is usually a net negative for the wife, both romantically and economically
I don’t really understand how one can objectively rule out that they were really unhappy in the marriage and are happier outside of it, even though they’re poorer or have fewer partners or whatever afterwards.
Tbh this kind of sounds like an MRA revenge fantasy. I’m sure that women (and men) probably overestimate their out-of-marriage prospects a bit, which would lead to “too many” divorces, but most people also have a really strong “make it work” determination that probably counterbalances this somewhat.
Tomato
3mo ago
Whats the actual deal with the Chinese illegal immigrants? Are the numbers actually high? If so are we to interpret this as the situation in China being much worse than we thought, or is it some clandestine operation? The latter seems super implausible. If the numbers of captured people are really that high I can’t imagine nobody would be caught with a suspicious gadget or spill the beans on interrogation.
As a new parent with a 3-month old baby, I'd be interested in this too.
My totally unscientific intuition, sort of based on how heritable everything is, is that as long as you don't totally fuck up (feed him, don't keep him locked up in a dark room, have him socialize with other children and adults) it doesn't really matter/whatever an upper-middle class person would naturally do is fine. My wife initially fell victim to tons of the baby gear marketing, but once you realize that your baby is equally happy in the $50 generic amazon swing as he is in the $300 fancy swing, you kind of apply that lesson to child rearing writ large.
It's probably more important for his happiness to make sure he breathes through his nose than it is to play Bach by his crib while he sleeps or put him in one of those Russian math programs. We'll try, as much as possible, to avoid a burnout-inducing, intense middle school/high school, although that's hard where we live because a lot of our neighbors are that type. In my job I see plenty of kids coming out of grueling East Asian-style schooling and it absolutely puts them at a long-term disadvantage.
Hopefully the kid will be interested in something and we can nurture him to go deep in that direction, and hopefully it's as straightforward as just exposing him to a lot of things and seeing what he likes. The main thing I'd be at a loss over what to do is if he was just passionless and wanted to watch esports all day or something because I'm not like that and it'd be hard for me to understand and intervene.
Probably if you are hell-bent on raising a chess prodigy you should teach him chess early but that and related things seem like totally pathological goals to shoot for with your kid.
Tomato
4mo ago
Mortgage credit in the US in particular is very weird became almost all loans are insured by quasi-governmental agencies, and they have a very simple cut and dry rule for the insurance fee. You have FICO, you have LTV, you find where you are on this prescribed grid and that’s how much it costs. It’s already subsidized, it’s already not a market price, it already doesn’t accurately reflect the underlying risk, and this is all sort of on purpose because it’s one way the government wants to encourage homeownership. Messing around with this stuff on the margin is sort of second order compared to the fact that this entire edifice occupies 80% of the mortgage market.
Tomato
4mo ago
Consumer credit access and rates in the US are typically determined by a combination of credit score, loan to value (how levered the asset is), and debt to income (how manageable are the debt payments relative to how much you make).
Tomato
4mo ago
They are for consumer stuff though. What are you gonna do, some huge financial analysis for every guy who walks in wanting a credit card or mortgage?
Tomato
4mo ago
Quality increases show up by reducing the price index, making real GDP higher.
And even supposing these things are systematically missed and we are in fact much better off beyond what GDP reports, they should be apparent in measures of happiness or quality of life, and they are decidedly not.
Tomato
4mo ago
Yeah. And beyond that the whole “tech revolution” didn’t show up dramatically in any aggregate economic stats like GDP or productivity growth. My model for what happened is basically, we used to do a bunch of tasks using a red widget. Someone invented a blue widget that does those tasks 5% better (but they’re super annoying to use). As a society we switched en masse from red to blue widgets. The way people do their tasks is now very different and so it feels like there must have been some dramatic upgrade, but in reality:
- we do essentially the same tasks
- we use blue widgets instead of red widgets
- economic output is a tiny bit higher because the blue widget is a tiny bit better
- were all stuck living in blue widget world where everything is more annoying but anyone who uses a red widget gets outcompeted
- the guys who invented blue widgets got incredibly rich in the (in aggregate, marginal) transition from red to blue widgets and now they’re on Twitter peddling some exhausting reskin of Ayn Rand.
This has been a conspiracy theory on the right for a while. “They” are trying to demoralize you by insisting that ugly things (architecture, art, music, people) are beautiful. Very common /pol/ thread topic. Also comes up whenever female video game protagonists are mid. I don’t quite understand the objective or mechanism here but this is a very mainstream claim among that crowd.
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