Turniper
9hr ago
Mm, probably like 20%? We host a lot. I have a house, so this is pretty easy. But we hosted a lot too when we had a 2 bedroom apartment with 1 common room and a tiny galley style kitchen, just 15 instead of 30. Our friends who didn't host now host once a year now that they have houses.
Obviously anecdotal, but the trend bears out in my experience. People who aren't already social don't become social when they finally hit it big and their material constraints loosen. I think most of this is downstream of culture/internet/expectations, pointing to material deprivation that is very real, but not actually very limiting on your ability to meet and interact with people is just a convenient way of absolving yourself of responsibility for the choices you would rather not justify in words.
Turniper
9hr ago
They do, but the race is less about debt and more about the capability growth and its effects on revenue. OAI and Anthropic are both printing money. But the 50-100B a year they can theoretically print will vanish in a single year if a competitor leapfrogs them. Their revenue is only sustainable while they remain the only game in town, if open or big tech model competitors like gemini get capability parity, they go from serving inference at 80% margins to serving inference at 2% margins as competition intensifies (At least on API usage billing, consumers are probably more locked in, but still very willing to move on if someone else has a better model for their 20 dollars). Their debt is nothing if they keep leading the pack, everything if others catch up to their leads.
Turniper
10hr ago
What are people's stock picks looking like these days? I made a mint on Twist Bioscience recently off a twitter tip, but I rotated out already after it rocketed. Wishing I went in with more volume, but it wasn't my conviction, so I went pretty light. Other than that, my individual picks are mostly the usual that have served me well, MSFT, Nvidia, Amazon. I tend to keep about 20% of my funds as 'money where your mouth is' money, but I kinda just struggle to see opportunities better than holding more Nvidia atm. I did grab some SK Hynix after the korean market vomited up its leverage, but I'm already eyeing selling out of that for a small profit, I worry the industry is gonna overbuild in a big way in a 2-3 year timeframe (Plus china). Also recently (Well, 6 months ago) exited my costco position, which was kinda a dual retail thesis, I felt future shopping would trend in either amazon or costco-esque directions. But it's just too expensive for me atm relative to growth potential, even after the dip. Keeping an eye on it to buy more if it falls further though.
I feel there definitely are opportunities in bio/pharma, I'm just not keyed in enough to find them reliably. Most of my wins there have been gleaned from listening to people in the field.
Anyway, thoughts? Anyone got a pick they're pondering?
Turniper
4d ago
The restrictions cut both ways though. Getting lifted and slammed in the octagon is often a waste of energy for your opponent, on concrete, it can be immediate death. I'd agree that generally cuts against BJJ techniques that rely on holding guard, but there are some moves like a double ankle sweep that get a lot more powerful with a hard surface.
Turniper
4d ago
Oh, a bunch. Eye pokes are the big one, there are tons of circumstances where it's optimal to risk your fingers to threaten their eyes. Biting, gouging, small joint locks/breaks, attacking the throat, and using the clothing/hair round out the list. That's pretty much all of them though. If it isn't banned, and isn't done, you can kinda just assume it's not effective at scale. IE any head-kick that you're not already seeing generally doesn't pencil out the risk vs reward of a one shot knockout vs catching a nasty cross or overhand during your recovery.
Turniper
4d ago
Canada has no realistic path to doubling it's population and transitioning to a command economy. Might as well say 'Britain should acquire colonies, that would solve the downsides of Brexit'.
Turniper
8d ago
Yeah, simple if you're already comfortable replacing shingles, splicing into your houses wiring, understand the variety of products that go into sealing a roof, and trust your work poking holes in one.
That's like 2% of homeowners. Plus you probably need an electrician anyway if you want to legally sell power back to the grid. Sure, it's doable, but it doesn't change the general accuracy of his estimate.
Turniper
8d ago
This is hilariously implausible. Do you really think the crew of the Lincoln, a ship which has had soldiers disciplined for talking to journalists without permission (About the conditions you insist are fake), would be able to cover up the ship receiving missile fire? The ship with a crew of over FIVE THOUSAND? Yeah, that's not how things work these days where everyone has phones.
Turniper
13d ago
Tangentially related, but once on my EMT-B rotations at 21, I had a Chinese guy assume that I was a fucking resident, because I was a man wearing scrubs on the L&D floor, who was clearly too young to be an attending. I was not a mature looking 21 year old. I didn't stop getting carded until like 30. A few weeks earlier on an ER rotation an elderly black lady had asked how young they were starting us these days, because she couldn't believe I was working in a hospital when I looked like a high school freshman.
Anyway, the nurses had a great laugh about that and I believe the poor intern? was given shit about it for several weeks.
Also I was wearing big stompy boots with my borrowed scrubs, and he apparently just didn't notice those.
Turniper
1mo ago
I'm less familiar with Kriss than I am with marketing writing. Substack is a platform you basically need to funnel to via a big twitter or youtube account. Other people's substacks and tiktok are also good options. It doesn't give you much organic visibility, even if people view and comment, you need another way to drive links. It's more of a bottom of funnel than a top of funnel place, with good monetization options for dedicated fans.
Turniper
1mo ago
Substack's algorithm doesn't work like that, unless you drive viewership from other platforms you're gonna get almost zero visibility.
Turniper
1mo ago
Mm, this really isn't true. If you write like Sam Kriss into the void, you'll enjoy approximately zero organic success. You need to both write like Sam, and market like him, to enjoy success like him. There are platforms that will drive viewership organically to your writing. Most of them are places to read fiction for free. If you want to write blogs, you're gonna need to market yourself.
Turniper
1mo ago
Blend shapes will allow you to mess with proportions. That's actually pretty easy, and the industry standard solution for stuff like scaling fat or muscle. The problem is that animations wont play nicely with blend shapes. If you increase the length of legs or forearms rather than scaling height uniformly, all your physical interaction animations begin to break. If you really want truly unique builds, you basically need to do VR style procedural IK animation for all your interactions.
Turniper
1mo ago
Yeah, that's a really hard goal. It's only gonna get worse once you add blend shapes, equipment, and attachment points. You'll start to find that you really need to have unified skeletons, because if you don't, you'll need new copies of models for everything. IE you'll need to reskin and possibly even mess with the low-poly mesh for every pair of pants x every base mesh you build. If your dwarves/elves are just humans modified with aggressive blend shapes though, you only need pants for men and pants for women. It's definitely a cool idea, but I tend to think it's way too big for a single person to accomplish, not one of the low hanging fruit for procedural generation, like terrain or animating a spider.
Turniper
1mo ago
There's definitely other processes that work. I know some people who do manage to get books done by ruminating over the story in their head for ages and only writing when inspiration strikes them. Met one at a party last night actually, was an interesting talk. But they're the sort of people who actually are struck by inspiration regularly. For the rest of us, there is daily discipline.
Whatever one's process is, if it does not result in words on a page month over month, it will never result in books.
Turniper
1mo ago
By generate procedurally, do you mean use unreal's tools like metahuman and just export a model? Or like, write code to build you a model? If the former, yeah, I would definitely recommend using some sort of preexisting humanoid avatar model that has all your blend shapes and replacement slots configured, then just building from that base. Building new dedicated humanoid characters is really an activity for people doing very art-driven projects with particular aesthetics. I personally work in Unity, so I just import UMA and that gives me good default humanoids out of the box that I can always replace with custom models later.
Turniper
2mo ago
This whole thing just seems like an insane non problem to me. Families should have one language everyone can speak. You use that language at home. You want to teach them another language, you can do that. It's really not that hard.
Turniper
2mo ago
It sounded to me like he's one of those serial entrepreneurs whose main skill is talking people out of there money. Adam Neumann sorta type, equally happy to spit his game on a government committee or private art investor.
I mean, no, it really isn't? There are nations in which you can discuss revolting against the government, where you can recruit men, buy weapons, and even drill in public, but as long as you don't pull the trigger, it's mostly accepted. And there are nations where that isn't true, and telling the wrong joke, or looking at a picture of a gun will get you jail time. The constitution sets out where various lines are. My point is the post above misunderstands drastically where the line actually is.
Turniper
2mo ago
This led me down an interesting rabbit hole as to how this guy keeps making movies if he's so bad. Apparently in his early career the tax and subsidy combinations offered by the german government were so substantial films could be major flops and still be financial successes. He claimed subsidies were often as much as 50% of production costs and any losses were full tax writeoffs, so it was at worst basically a risk free investment. Meanwhile his 'more successful' films that actually broke even at the box office would sometimes sell 3-4x their total box office run in home video sales, House of the Dead alone is likely more than half of the money his films have ever made. A lot of this information eventually sources back to the man himself though (After laundering through interview -> wikipedia), so possibly worth taking with a grain of salt.
Turniper
2mo ago
Uh... No, no it is not. The second amendment guarantees citizens the right to maintain the capabilities to come at the king, it does not free them from consequences if they miss.
Turniper
2mo ago
Path of Exile 2. The new patch is just so peak. It finally feels like a true sequel to the first, even with half the character classes missing.
Turniper
3mo ago
I am just a non-miserable tightwad. There's very little that costs money that I want and yet do not have. Most of my big spending is A) The house, and B) Nice groceries (Which is just not that large).
For a single person, it's really not complicated. You identify what you care about, and what those things cost, and compare the cost benefit of them being part of your life vs the additional years you need to work to afford those drinks/that boat/the next step up the housing ladder.
Where it gets complicated is when your working partner comes into it. Ultimately, you really need to understand your wife here. Does she support you retiring early? If yes, does she actually, or will she get resentful about it? Will it make a difference if you're pursuing a hobby seriously or taking care of the kids rather than getting high and playing games all day? Does she expect you to support the family entirely when kids come into the picture? If so, is that gonna be just while she's on maternity leave, or is there an unspoken expectation that she'll transition to full time caregiver while you win bread? You really need a firm understanding of how she feels about your money vs our money vs her money, and how much she enjoys work, if you're even gonna consider stepping away.
I am married, semi-fired, and expecting kids in the next few years, so I've got some experience here. My wife is very much uncommonly devoted to separate finances and does not feel entitled to my money. The flip side of this, is despite being unemployed, I do still pay more than 50% of the household expenses. Additionally, we are both naturally quite frugal, so there's few 50-50 travel expenses that I'd balk at. It helps that her limiting factor on travel is available days off, while mine is money, so there's not a lot of pressure to go on more trips. On top of that, I do a lot of household labor, and expect to be primary caregiver a sizable part of the time when kids get added to the picture.
In your case, with the massive income disparity, and your wife enjoying spending more than you, I'd just add half a million to your fire number (Unless it's already so large you'd be able to afford her quitting and traveling as much as you want). It's just gonna make sense for you to do more earning for the family with your large earning capacity.
Turniper
3mo ago
Nice. I've been driving my 07 for almost 18 years now, and I love it to death. Just an absolutely bulletproof car, I basically give it the absolute minimum possible maintenance and nothing breaks except the UV-vulnerable plastic and the usual belts. I keep saying I'll sell it when the next problem comes up, but I think outside fluids and state inspection it's gotten 500 bucks in maintenance since 2021.
They can't service their debt if their revenue falls off a cliff. Anthropic's debt is in the vicinity of 70 billion. Their revenue this year is projected to be a whopping 65 billion (If each quarter is as good as their last one). Their revenue last year was just under 10 billion. See the issue? Those are some very different numbers. OpenAI's debt is probably in the vicinity of 100 billion, but their revenue this year is on track to hit 40 billion. I don't know their rates, but the issue is those revenue numbers could theoretically as easily go to tens of billions as they could hundreds of millions, and those are revenue numbers, not profit. If the industry ends up with mostly comparable models, a race to the bottom on cost could destroy companies. But if the big names manage to hold their decisive advantage for as little as five years, they could well print over a trillion dollars before anyone catches up and begins to drive price down.
But to answer your question, they can service their debt unless revenue falls below well last year's numbers and remains that way. And the only realistic way that happens is serious competition on cost.
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