aeqno
11mo ago
The bond market was starting to act up. Nothing good could have come from that.
aeqno
11mo ago
So the tariff climbdown begins, at least on the part of the United States. Smart phones, computers, and chips to be exempt from the reciprocal tariffs:
https://content.govdelivery.com/bulletins/gd/USDHSCBP-3db9e55?wgt_ref=USDHSCBP_WIDGET_2
As things stand, this basically decimates small and medium-sized business owners while leaving Big Tech sitting pretty, despite the former being a key pillar of GOP support for decades, and the latter only having their MAGA awakening one month prior to the election.
I think this Hacker News comment really sums up what's just happened:
This is pretty much how I expected this to play out, at least for now. Trump acts all tough and doesn't back down publicly, but China actually doesn't back down. So what happens is that some businesses get exemptions to mitigate the impact. Then some fine print gets changed about how the rules are enforced. Like, suddenly it turns out that Kiribati is a major electronics supplier to the US :) End result - US economy takes a hit, China takes a smaller hit. Trade balance widens further, most likely. The rich get richer, while many small companies struggle to survive.
The admin's hand also seems to have been forced by the bond market going crazy. The trade specialists now have the unenviable task of unwinding the past two months in whatever way is least damaging to Trump's ego. Most likely, everything remains on the books, and we now spend the next several years developing workarounds for this clusterfuck.
aeqno
11mo ago
If Trump's attempted coup wasn't the time for her to stand up, what situation would be more fitting?
aeqno
11mo ago
China has retaliated with 84% tariffs on US goods:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2025-04-08/trump-tariffs-stock-market-updates
Trade war is now on for real.
They were serious, came prepared for teargas, took precautions to not out themselves or their comrades, hid their faces to avoid being identified, paid for things in cash
You'd probably love Antifa, then.
aeqno
11mo ago
So in regards to Trump, I don't think I've seen a better /r/leopardsatemyface example than the SV oligarchs who went all in on MAGA in the run-up to the election.
What was particularly interesting is how they fully took on the MAGA rhetoric style on Twitter and appeared to wholly buy in to that world view, complete with its insane conspiratorial thinking. I often wondered if this was playacting for the rubes, of if they had actually "become the mask".
Well, a look at Bill Ackman's Twitter feed shows that it was the former. For context, Ackman is a billion dollars long on Nike, lol.
What's fascinating is that you can see how the mask slowly comes off Ackman's face. The earlier Tweets, as the situation was just starting to develop, are along the usual MAGA lines of "Leader strong and wise! America's enemies will tremble before him.", along with a laundry list of how the pure and innocent United States has been taken advantage of by bad actors.
However, as it becomes clear that Trump isn't bluffing, panic starts setting in and Ackman (who unlike the average MAGA knows the difference between a tariff and trade deficit, and also why the latter is not a bad thing) starts diplomatically hinting that this is actually a pretty fucking stupid idea. After a while, he realizes subtlety doesn't work with his new audience says we'd be starting "economic nuclear war" with the rest of the world, and "this isn't what we voted for".
As of this posting, he's currently at the bargaining stage of grief:
https://x.com/BillAckman/status/1909313079130951801
I find Ackman really interesting as he's a very visible proxy for all the smart people who pretended to be stupid because they saw MAGA as a vehicle to even more wealth, power, and influence (Vivek & Vance would be others).
aeqno
11mo ago
Alternatively, both you and the market are still in the denial/bargaining stage.
aeqno
11mo ago
Most of those things are probably bought by the lower and middle classes on credit.
aeqno
11mo ago
Would Nero or Caligula have had the full support of the Evangelical community, tho?
aeqno
11mo ago
We will see a return to the spoils system where government appointments are cycled in and out with every new administration as payoffs to supporters
Hey, just like the late Roman Republic!
aeqno
11mo ago
So after Sec Def Hegseth denied posting classified info in the leaked Signal chat, the Atlantic has released more screenshots of him describing the full play-by-play warplan:
Also, looks like it might have been Waltz's deputy Alex Wong who accidentally e-vited Goldberg to the chat:
https://x.com/RichardHanania/status/1904883964072124642
What gets me is that none of this even matters anymore, so I don't get the big deal made over it.
When you've refused to concede a national election, your supporters have stormed the central seat of government, and you've then not only been allowed to run again but been resoundingly re-elected, why would something like this be even a ripple? I'm surprised even right-wing rags like the NY Post have this at the top. What do they think will be the outcome of any of this? Trump already said he's not firing Waltz. The GOP will remain dutifully silent. The public sure as shit don't care.
Yeah, in 2012, this would've been career-ending for everyone involved, but these are different times. Absolutely nothing comes of this.
That was already true before the war (Poland, Baltic states), and even more so after Finland and Sweden joined up.
Man, isn't it weird how all the nations with direct experience of Mother Russia's loving embrace fight so hard to avoid feeling it once more?
Also, why can't people just listen to what Putin actually says? He's on some medieval LARP of Russians and Ukrainians being the same people. Richard Hanania had a great take on Tucker Carlson's interview with him:
https://x.com/RichardHanania/status/1755750991964913902
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