anon_
28d ago
I have probably indirectly been affected by the higher oil prices, but I'm not sure to what extent. I imagine probably badly, but I haven't done the research to find out for sure.
It's hard to believe that higher oil prices are ever a good thing, at least within the normal range. It's directly and broadly inflationary.
You can maybe construct a few exceptions: the obvious folks with direct investment in oil/gas/refining, a family with a huge mortgage at pandemic rates and salaries that track inflation or a low-end service worker with college debt that's in a hot labor market. Still, those are pretty exceptional.
anon_
28d ago
Multiple wars happening concurrently is really straining our ability to reason about the world.
I, for one, suggest they take turns having protracted conflicts in order to preserve sense-making.
anon_
28d ago
I think you're confusing something -- we are paying a toll to the shuttle tankers that are moving oil out of the gulf. Just not to Iran. That's reflected in crude prices and you're right that "open/closed" is not the appropriate metric.
You're right about the great expense and munitions bit tho. War is not cheap and there are real costs.
That said, I think the Houthis routing the make-believe Saudi forces is 100% worth it as a reality check for MBS. He's no doubt had underlings report to him that the military is in good state while he writes huge checks for gear and not-always-existent personnel. Meanwhile, we see videos of massed Houthi vehicles charging unchallenged across an open desert in the way that would make any Ukrainian drone operator (or US A10 pilot) shudder. I think he's smart enough and adept enough to do what's needed after seeing incontrovertible evidence.
anon_
28d ago
oil transiting the Strait under American protection
This is great news.
One asterisk to the good news (and I'm not a doomer) is that most tanker fleets (or their insurers) still won't cross the strait. So smaller tankers are "shuttling" the oil to the larger ones and then offloading it via ship-to-ship transfers.
It's a great solution, but it's expensive on two levels: first, it's just plain logistically expensive and second the shuttles are charging a risk premium. So I agree with the top line that America is winning, but at the same time we're all paying higher oil prices.
I think there is a narrow path that leads to at least a conviction for perjury -- she was actually 18 at the point her father immigrated and the search turns up solid proof of it. In that case, she's have been obligated to apply for citizenship on her own and would have been perjuring herself on various official documents in the decades since.
Despite the chud dreams, I think denaturalization is not likely even in this scenario. But a charge for perjury or some other falsification-of-documents offense is advantageous for the DOJ: easy to try and prove, makes their point.
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