anti_dan
8d ago
I wouldn't be above 10% predicting any of those things, all of them combined I'd be under 5%.
Democrats just resoundingly demonstrated they have an incredibly high floor. Harris-Walz got 75million votes. On those non-existent (probably negative) coat tails they were just -4 in the senate with a very tough map given the Montana and WV retirements, while actually receiving more total votes for their candidates, and actually gained 2 house seats. They also managed to hold steady in governorships, even with the crazy North Carolina guy somehow holding on in a reddish state.
They don't need popular policies or politicians. Those are outdated. They have vote-harvesting operations, which is what matters.
anti_dan
3d ago
Given the number of closures of PP in states that banned abortion, they do not.
anti_dan
4d ago
In the area I grew up in the Catholic schools at still at 8k per head, and this is a state with heavy regulation of even those. If you had a good regulatory environment I suspect you could get very competent schooling at around the 2-3k per head number.
anti_dan
5d ago
Fully refunded + $10 on the platform my wife ordered through. Not worth my time to file a police report, but who knows what their policy is. If cops come in the next 30 days and ask for the footage I will have it.
anti_dan
10d ago
I'm surprised how much political capital he was willing to spend on this.
I'd like to hear the case that this was actually significant political capital. Democrats were already flipping out (Fetterman excluded) over Trump's failure to stop Israel from bombing Iran and continuing to conduct effective operations in Gaza. So they are already on team Hamas/Iran and not on team Israel/MidEast stability. This strike was just a logical move along the route of letting Israel win all the wars we'd otherwise have to fight if they got wiped out, and from time to time we lend some aid.
anti_dan
4d ago
But DNA can't solve that factual question. The jury already answered that question without DNA, which can only further implicate him. He can only go from 100% guilty to 100% guilty.
anti_dan
5d ago
I will try but I have no idea how they work. We have had this happen one time before at our previous residence. The driver hung a bag over the fencing of the adjacent lot and took a picture then 3 minutes later I went to look for it and there was nothing. We never were told what happened in that case. I suspect unless I file my own police report (which I dont really have cause for because they fully refunded me) I would ever get any notice.
I know that on large purchases Amazon does file its own reports with local PD. But that is for over $1k at a single location, and then the PD will try to see if there is a camera and file charges. But for $50 of takeout we ordered because we both had really stressful Friday workdays? I doubt it.
anti_dan
14d ago
This strikes me as an odd theory based on the fact that married folks with kids remain the core of the Republican coalition.
The reality is position 2 is a compromise position because you go to the war with the army you have. And the army of married folks are very nice people who are uncomfortable letting toddlers and homeless people die in the streets to save 5% of GDP or whatever the numbers bear out to be. The married people also have been paying social security and medicare all their adult lives at this point and want that security they were "promised". Thus, entitlement reform is a losing issue. Not with me, presumably me and you could win tens of thousands of votes nationwide campaigning on a platform of eliminating Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, LINK, and all the other poverty-reduction programs. But that doesn't work for a party that wants to have presidents and congressional majorities.
So what do you do? You target the unsympathetic leeches like single guys age 29 playing lots of COD, because those are the cuts you CAN make. The alternative is you lose handily, the cuts you made are reversed, more foreigners are added to the roster, and they lop off a lot of penises and breasts of confused 15 year olds.
anti_dan
9d ago
Concur. He legitimately got his first and most important prediction wildly incorrect.
anti_dan
14d ago
3). They lack media platforms in major markets. If you want to hear conservative news, you have a very large network to choose from. You have podcasts, YouTubers, tv news networks, radio, websites, substacks, etc. and they are generally agreed on what they support, or at least who they support. They have a mutual respect and understanding that you don’t attack other conservatives unless they’re going too far to the left. The Left has individuals with TV, radio, or podcasts, but they really don’t support each other. Raechel Maddow doesn’t tell the same story as Ezra Klein who doesn’t tell the same story as Thom Hartmann.
This is false. Democrats control most major media outlets. Your have to intentionally seek out conservative podcasts or other. If you just watch a football or basketball game, the news that follows will be massively left of center.
anti_dan
14d ago
It's worth noting that Kagan, though she agreed on heightened scrutiny, declined to join the Court's low-IQ wing to assert that also the law failed under heightened scrutiny. Once again she shows herself to be, by a wide margin, the most competent jurist on the Court's left wing.
I will just chime in to agree with this 100%. Kagan is the smart left of center justice and it is not close. I think she might actually be the smartest justice right now. Gorsuch being younger has an argument and Alito being more concise also does. It is certainly those 3 though.
anti_dan
14d ago
Gorsuch signed onto it, so I guess he must agree? Or maybe he didn't want a bunch of circuit court misreadings if this case ended up in a 4/1/1-3 mixed-majority. But the reasoning here's vague enough that red circuits can draw every other transgender case that isn't specifically a CRA thing (and maybe even some that are) as about Skrmmeti-like distinctions, and blue circuits can draw every other transgender case as more like Bostock.
People often forget SCOTUS justices are politicians. Gorsuch wrote Bostock when he was in a DC swamp that was overwhelmingly trans-triumphalist. He almost certainly thought he was HELPING by making it less of an issue. A few years later and its now basically mainstream thought that trans treatments for teens is the modern day lobotomy. He would not write Bostock again.
anti_dan
14d ago
Pretty sure abstinence only sex ed resulted in the highest rates of teenage pregnancy
We'd have to fisk both sides of the claim, and I'm tired, but doesn't this sound to you like a classic case of where black population clusters also correspond with conservative Christian clusters (aka southern states)?
anti_dan
8d ago
That can amend the Presidential computation, but it doesn't change the Senate, and in the House there still will be like a floor of 195ish.
anti_dan
10d ago
Hanania doesn't even have the benefit of being a stopped clock. He's confused and going backwards. The people who he's now decided are a threat, the so called "woke right" are not university professors, presidents, congressmen, CEOs, etc. They are frogs and eggs on X and the occasional podcast host. He's trying to re-calibrate against a basically non-existent enemy, which, even if it was to turn into a threat, would have to build steam for 30 years to get to where the woke left CURRENTLY still is with regards to power.
anti_dan
7d ago
The Dems run Mark Robinsons all the time, they still hit their floor which is demonstrably quite high.
anti_dan
10d ago
Wasn't one of the big complaints of feminism when it started that such jobs did care about the gap?
Yes, but it was another one of the complaints that was question-begged into existence. Woman at every peg of the promotional ladder already worked less than men. If you take 3 years off, even if you come back at 100%, you will have men 3 years younger than you next to you that are working harder than you were 3 years ago, and now you are 3 years older and even less likely to put in 60 hours while only obligated to do 40.
anti_dan
24d ago
The country's main legislative building is arguably the most legitimate target for protest in the country.
That the J6 protest escalated into a riot that eventually spilled into the building itself is more about the abject security failures than anything special about what the rioters did.
anti_dan
19d ago
I think people underrate persuasion, its just often not visible.
When I was in high school I was a Diablo II forum moderator and trader, and ideas like that there are significant racial IQ gaps simply were not among the facts or topics I was in contact with. But as Diablo II kind of died (its not actually dead even now) the forum got interesting and political from time to time. And then topics were introduced. And I was able to learn about such topics, expand, etc.
anti_dan
7d ago
If Republican candidate quality matters in a red state, the Dems aren't close to being down and out.
anti_dan
9d ago
It would be much harder to accuse Israel of genocide if they studiously avoided anything that hit the general populace. Water, power, etc.
I really don't think it would. I would describe their current conduct as studiously avoiding the general populace, but the nature of the place of combat means even an 'A' student is going to kill or injure a ton of "civilians" (a term I hesitate to use when the population has elected Hamas, and the only people who would have a chance if another election were held were people calling Hamas too soft on killing Jews).
anti_dan
9d ago
Caplan isn't that much older than I am, so he's mostly seen the same wars I have. These have been predominantly wars in Islamic countries, where his argument doesn't hold much grip on reality. We are talking about Gaza, Iraq, Afghanistan, now potentially Iran. These are territories where "Death to Israel" holds 90%+ popularity and "Death to America" is only a few clicks behind.
But you don't actually need most of that. 3k would be pretty bare bones. But you really just need 1 paid adult per 30 kids or so. A warehouse style aluminum building would work. Some open fields around it would be fine. One guy should be able to do all the janitorial & maintenance and grounds work. Support staff could be largely outsourced to one of the cheap HR companies. There will be significant upfront costs for supplies, but those can be stretched over 30+ year lifespans for the buildings, desks, etc. And the books can either be bought 2nd hand for cheap or be disposed of entirely based on your choices. Constantly cycling through new textbooks is a choice, and a wasteful one.
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