coffee_enjoyer
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User ID: 541
coffee_enjoyer
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3d ago
It just requires common reasoning: cops in cities deal with crazy people every day; cops in cities deal with crazy people who turn violent every day; a good intuition is the result of many varied experiences with a given phenomenon over a long period of time especially where those experiences supply feedback. The feedback is whether your colleague is tackled or whether an innocent person is stabbed — add in the high tension release of cortisol which increases memory formation and… yeah. I think my assumption is safe.
training
Training is inferior to experience where intuition is concerned. The best chess players play the most games, as opposed to doing the most puzzles.
flinches and cowers until she is shot dead
is an inaccurate interpretation of the event. See my other comment here. She reached up from the ground and flung the water. Were she cowering, she would still be alive! Really if she chose any other option than lifting up the pot and throwing the boiling water toward the officers.
[snarky voice] pot of hot water, how terrifying
I think an experiment is in order. You may find the results interesting, but you also seem very confident, so maybe there’s something you know that we don’t. Just record it if so, and I’ll try to find an alternative to liveleak.
coffee_enjoyer
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3d ago
You may biased from previous media spectacles. Let’s consider everything with the right priors first: two professional police officers are dealing with a woman who is acting crazy. These two officers are trained professionals in recognizing when a crazy person is about to turn violent, because they deal with that every day. Their intuition for recognizing that is going to be top 0.1% in the country. When we hear “I rebuke you in the name of Jesus” and see a vague outline of a person, the higher fidelity vision of the police officers is zooming in at the signs of whether this mentally ill African American woman is planning the destroy their lives with boiling water. In order to prevent their life’s happiness being taken away from them they tell her to step away from the pot of water.
In this video, at about 10:40 we clearly see that she ducks first at the request, without the pot. She is on the ground. Gun pointed at her. Officer saying “drop the pot”. At exactly 10:41.50, she grabs the pot from above her and throws it at the officers. If you watch 10:40-10:45 at .25 speed this is obvious. I recommend downloading the video and zooming as slow as you can actually. She lifts her hands up, grabs the pot, throws the contents toward the officer with a right arm which increasingly stretched outward, and the steaming water splashes feet in front of her, soaking the chair with boiling water. If you do an experiment in your kitchen with a pot of water, you’d note that merely holding the pot and turning it over will not launch the water like a projectile feet in front of you. Therefore, the evidence (arm begins to stretch out toward officer + the splash) indicates a throwing movement, as well as intent of throwing (from the position on the ground, reaching up and grabbing the pot of water in your sink). The shot rings immediately after she picked up the pot and completely extended her right arm, eg a normal reaction time by an officer in good physical fitness.
How about "she dropped the pot of boiling water because the cop shot her in the head."
How about examine evidence fully before making a conclusion
coffee_enjoyer
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3d ago
It will come down to TikTok and instagram. Dems lost the Twitter stronghold but if they can shill their narrative on TikTok and insta then they can get a momentum going. I think Gaza also reduces the potency of a Floyd-like defining moment. The problem with TikTok is that it’s difficult to gauge how popular a narrative is because everything is feed-specific. There’s not really a hashtag feature that is universally used and the search function is mediocre. There could be a trending narrative among influential voters and we could have no idea!
coffee_enjoyer
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3d ago
On Sunday I speculated that the Dems will use a George Floyd-like psychological operation to increase Democrat turnout in the election. Today, Kamala issued a statement about Sonya Massey, a black woman killed by police whose body cam footage was released recently:
Sonya Massey deserved to be safe. After she called the police for help, she was tragically killed in her own home at the hands of a responding officer sworn to protect and serve. Doug and I send strength and prayers to Sonya’s family and friends, and we join them in grieving her senseless death.
I join President Biden in commending the swift action of the State’s Attorney’s Office and in calling on Congress to pass the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act, a bill that I coauthored in the Senate. In this moment, in honor of Sonya’s memory and the memory of so many more whose names we may never know, we must come together to achieve meaningful reforms that advance the safety of all communities.
The body cam footage shows two police officers answering a call from Massey about a prowler in her yard. Massey acts mentally unwell throughout the encounter, answers that she is on medication when asked about her mental health, and has a difficult time telling the officers what her last name is or retrieving her photo ID. The officers are somewhat friendly if impatient, but the vibe changes when Massey grabs a pot of boiling water after the officers requested she turn off the stove. The officers say they are stepping back while she grabs the boiling water (crazy people may use boiling water as a weapon, something that has lead Starbucks to ban giving patrons boiling water), and Massey says “I rebuke you in the name of Jesus”. Either because of this statement or because of a physical sign we don’t pick up on the body cam, an officer points his gun and demands that she drop the boiling water. She does not drop the boiling water but instead continues to hold on to it. Right before she is shot the body cam just barely picks up Massey throwing the boiling water toward the officers, with the water landing on the ground and steaming where it landed. I want to thank Twitter user Fartblaster4000 for turning that moment into a helpful gif.
Massey’s death is certainly not the preferred outcome of the encounter. Once the officers picked up on Massey being crazy, they should have mentally decided to leave her house if she did something like equip a plausible weapon. The three seconds that the officer gives for Massey to drop the pot of boiling water was insufficient — of course, the pot was in her hand and thrown toward the officer before the officer shot. Springfield is the third most criminal city in America, so perhaps the officers did not believe they had the resources to call mental health professionals in their place. In any case I do not think that the officers should have moved toward her but instead left the premises until they felt she did not pose a threat. Sadly, it’s not uncommon for crazy people to attack police officers with whatever is around, and it’s rational to be afraid of a crazy person who has a pot of scalding water in their hands, able to disfigure you for life.
According to a UPenn study, BLM may have been the political ingredient that shifted the election toward Joe Biden:
Mutz also notes that roughly 90% of voters reliably vote with their party, and only about 10% of voters are likely to shift their vote from one party to another. It was that group that she focused on, finding that as their awareness of discrimination against Black people rose, so too did their likelihood of voting for Biden. Interestingly, many voters who had voted for third parties in 2016 also shifted to major party candidates in 2020, and disproportionately moved toward Biden.
Concern surrounding COVID-19 caused voters on both sides of the aisle to favor their own candidate more, but it did not cause any significant vote change from Trump to Biden or vice versa. Nor, Mutz says, did factors relating to the economic effects of COVID. As levels of concern about COVID became increasingly partisan, the issue lost its ability to change vote choice so much as to reinforce it. Does that mean BLM decided the election? That question remains unanswered
If the relevant voters are swayed more by victimhood narratives than Covid, this explains why Republicans are bringing up the topic of migrant rapes. I predict we are going to see more victimhood narratives in the coming months!
coffee_enjoyer
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3d ago
A public cancellation works a lot like a public execution: everyone viewing it becomes afraid of committing the same infraction. This occurs whether or not you think the person did the crime or deserved to be punished. It changes psychology mechanically, according to the number of trials / iterations of one stimuli paired with a feared stimuli. It works best when the exposure is random, and in this case it works best when the cancelleé is capriciously chosen and otherwise unworthy of attention. (“If even she can be cancelled, I can too.”) There’s a reason that when we write online, we feel some fear at fully writing the N-Word, and some people feel fear writing faggot and retard, not because of some ethical position everyone developed over decades, but because they have experienced trials that paired this formerly neutral word with a punishment. So when we talk about canceling blameless old ladies, we do have to consider that there are significant social consequences to the act of public consequences, making prominent progressives and liberals on Twitter a little afraid of doing similar things.
coffee_enjoyer
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4d ago
coffee_enjoyer
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4d ago
My favorite reply from a relative: “this is the first time I wish Trump leaned further right”. Comedy knows no political aisle
coffee_enjoyer
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4d ago
As the owner of Twitter Elon now does get to decide that, or at least influence it, which is why his propaganda edit has 77 million views.
coffee_enjoyer
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4d ago
Brahmins had power in India, And Kamala is Brahmin. Just from what I’ve read about the corporate world online, the stereotype of Indians (as opposed to East Asians) is that they are better at the social games which lead to promotions. Whereas East Asians historically had a test that guaranteed promotions, perhaps Indian culture relied more on social quid pro quo?
coffee_enjoyer
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5d ago
Are they going to try a George Floyd-like psyop to increase Democrat favorability like in 2020? They could do it from the perspective of Blacks, Indians, or Women. I can see something like a fraternity being falsely accused of raping an Indian woman, I can see Stop Asian Hate rearing its head again but the head being browner than before… I don’t know if bodycam footage of a black criminal will be as persuasive as it was in 2020. In New Jersey we had anonymous flyers show up that were anti-Indian but likely issued by Indians, maybe something like that will happen. So many different vantage points.
coffee_enjoyer
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5d ago
There are many studies on it, not one. I’ll have to dig up the one I am referring to.
coffee_enjoyer
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5d ago
I’ve read of the greatest predictors of criminality is having a sustained abnormally low heart rate during a stress-inducing task. If this is the case you may be able to ameliorate a chunk of criminality with anxiogenic substances (caffeine)
coffee_enjoyer
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6d ago
Did anyone do that in 2016-2019? I don’t recall a tech leader publicly showing that they are on Trump’s side then.
coffee_enjoyer
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7d ago
“Old and tired easily” describes Winston Churchill taking naps but executing his job well. It doesn’t describe Joe Biden, who is clearly far from the cognitive functioning of previous years, forgetting the names of his own appointees, barely able to walk on his own undirected.
coffee_enjoyer
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7d ago
Under normal conditions the President disagrees with and fires cabinet appointees. Bush disagreed with Rumsfeld in 2006, replacing him; Obama fired Chuck Hagel; Trump forced Sessions and Tillerson to resign.
Biden is a unique case of someone who is clearly cognitively out of it, who cannot reasonably disagee with his appointees, and is likely completely controlled by them.
coffee_enjoyer
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7d ago
Why is there no attention or reporting on the shadow executive branch? If Biden is mentally checked out, then the country is currently run by his most important appointments. These appointments are influencing Biden to stay in the race, and they have not made public statements against him or performed costly signals of resignation. Right now Biden’s most influential puppeteers are —
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Anthony Blinken, Department of State
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Jeff Zients, Chief of Staff
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Lloyd Austin, Secretary of Defense
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Janet Yellen, treasury
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Alejandro Mayorkas, Homeland Security
I remember thinking to myself four years ago, “who really controls Biden? Is it the DNC leadership or is it his advisors?” The present situation tells us that it’s his advisors who have the controlling share in the Biden Admin. But why is no one talking about this? It seems like a waste of time to event care about the temporarily vivified corpse of Joe. Shouldn’t we be directing all of our attention and questions to the advisors controlling him?
coffee_enjoyer
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9d ago
Fixed. Just a silly link from a recent comedy episode (the Shane Gillis Trump impersonation is insane, though)
Tech workers can be very wealthy and dress like shit. Poor people can be very poor but look wealthy, either through knockoffs or through ill-advised purchases. While physical attire isn’t being judged, the workers are probably checking your social cues to gauge level of wealth. You can tell the difference between a tech worker and a hillbilly even if they both wear cargo shorts.
don't use dress, appearance, and presentation as a basic credit check kind of way
at the commercial mall. Various subcultures still judge your appearance. From youth subcultures to finance. People dress better at industry conferences and on instagram. The mall is just no longer a place where any social encounter of value transpires. It’s a dead third space.
in theory be arrested or sued in small claims but in practice I've never even heard of such a thing
This does happen. Maybe not in San Francisco or NYC I guess, but elsewhere the restaurant will send the video of your car to the police who will charge you.
indicates high trust
I think it indicates a breakdown in predictable attire signaling. There’s just tons of wealthy people who don’t dress up. They can be billionaires and they won’t dress up. There can be people who dress up but waste the attendant’s time. And then of course there’s the prospect that the wealthy person you’ve turned away for looking poor goes to the news or your manager or Twitter. I wouldn’t say it indicates high trust, but alienation from a useful common language of socioeconomic signaling.
coffee_enjoyer
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9d ago
That is not the same thing for a variety of reasons. No one was applauding the attempt; Pelosi is not equivalent to a leading presidential candidate; the gay lover conspiracy was based on the men apparently knowing knowing each other and standing side by side when police arrived
coffee_enjoyer
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10d ago
Super informative!
coffee_enjoyer
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10d ago
If you wanted to make a foldable keyboard which merely stored keystrokes (the text you type) and nothing more, with no screen attached, in other words genuinely just a foldable keyboard, how thin could you make this? Could you make it so thin that it folds in your pocket?
Is this that poster who makes ambiguous posts related to white nationalism and we can’t tell what his motivation is, and then they delete their account? Why don’t you just plainly state your motivation. Then people will reply at length and in good faith. No, you didn’t go from making a teary-eyed post about your parents to reading an Amren article. I genuinely can’t tell in which direction you are trying to persuade people. If you’re trying to shill people into reading Amren there are better ways; if you are trying to argue against white nationalism, why don’t you do that without the subterfuge and fibbing? If you are some activist or whatever who hates where nationalism you can just post that and be honest, that would be an acceptable post and then there could be a debate.
Your sources do not say what you think they say. What you call “path to citizenship” actually says “path for some illegal immigrants”. (Well yeah, did he graduate from MIT or something?). Your anti-immigration point mixes up legal and illegal migration, and the increase is anti-legal migration is complex and multifaceted. Being sympathetic to illegal immigrants is totally irrelevant to any policy, you can be sympathetic to those who must be punished because justice demands it. Then you ignore compounded demographic change when you mention the “low” level of illegal migration.
In practice, I just don't think most Americans want to separate from their neighbors and friends to create a white ethnostate
The more serious question is whether a reasonable white American who is fully informed on the matter would agree with such a proposal. If you show a reasonable white American (1) global demographic trends, (2) the views of their ancestors, (3) crime data, (4) genetic differences, what would they say then? The unique problem today is that if trends continue, white people will simply die out as a population with any global influence. If you tell a white person that only white people are going to be replaced in the countries they founded, whereas Africa remains African and Asia remains Asian, what would the say? They have a strong evolutionary instinct as a mammal to not want their unique genetic group to be replaced by foreigners. That’s a primitively persuasive political argument, we can literally imagine Hunter Gatherers being motivated by the same concern. At an evolutionary level, knowing that your group is going to be replaced saps motivation to do anything. There is no longer a reason to live or build anything permanent or useful, knowing that it will be handed over to other groups and your own progeny will be replaced.
coffee_enjoyer
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13d ago
Checking out the front page of various news sites, it’s noteworthy that the headlines deny Trump the honor of being grazed by a bullet or having survived a clear assassination attempt.
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NYT: “Trump safe after shooting at rally”; “One spectator is dead after chaos at event in Pennsylvania”
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CNN: “Trump shooting being investigated as assassination attempt”;
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MSNBC: “Trump safe after shots fired at Pennsylvania rally”
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FoxNews: “Trump rally shooter was killed by secret service counter sniper team, source says”
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Googling Trump and finding first headline: “Trump safe after being rushed off rally stage when shots fired; gunman and audience member dead”
What’s up with this? The headline is clearly, “Trump survives assassination attempt”, the vastly more important subject of the event. I would write, “Bullet pierces Trump’s ear in failed assassination attempt”, because this includes the important information of the bullet’s proximity. The clear, plainly visible assassination attempt is 100x more important than that a shooting merely transpired at an event in Pennsylvania. This is also the most attention-grabbing title, so the news has an incentive to report this way. The bias is boundless…
He would have to know the strength of the woman, the weight of the pot, how much water was in the pot, and when the woman was planned on releasing it in the throw. I imagine once he realized the woman was reaching for the boiling water and in the process of throwing it, he was intent on shooting her.
IMO this is all a game of “which world would you rather live in” —
Possibly schizophrenic woman throwing boiling water at “guy doing his job” is extolled as an innocent victim by the president and president elect, with “guy doing his job” being painted as a demon and going through a lengthy criminal trial
“Guy doing his job” is fired from his job because he is bad at it, but we don’t destroy his life, and we don’t valorize a crazy violent woman, we must move on and possibly implement nation-wide training for what to do in such an encounter
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