confused-badger
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User ID: 3628
confused-badger
30d ago
Maybe you need to have a 115 IQ to do it? It’s by far the easiest part of my job.
confused-badger
1mo ago
I become more and more skeptical that the current LLM approach to AI is going to get us close to AGI, let alone ASI, whatever that means. The models are just clearly not that smart, and if you don’t realize this it’s because (1) you are not that smart or (2) you’re using it in the domain that the architecture happens to be good at, which is language (which includes chatting but also programming and some formal math.)
People are super language-oriented and so are overly impressed/distracted when something can do human language so well. We’re just dazzled by language use, and that massively biases our perception.
The technical field most dazzled by LLMs is programming, which is also basically just a translation job. Society has been under the misapprehension that being a computer translator is a super hard and intellectual job, partly because it has paid so well in the past couple of decades. This is just because there aren’t any people who are natively bilingual in English and computer, in the same way there are lots of people who natively bilingual in English and Spanish. Like an English teacher in China, people were able to arbitrage this lack of supply, and people mistook the existence of this arbitrage as evidence that the field is super difficult.
If you are in a technical field outside of this it is very obvious, and has been for a long time, that the current architecture is bad and progress stalled. A bunch of programmers will lose their status, like so many loser English teachers in China, but beyond that the current path isn’t going to change much.
confused-badger
6mo ago
Possibly? But that’s a totally different criticism.
confused-badger
6mo ago
So are you a norm enjoyer or not? Let’s hear the denunciations of Trump and co.
confused-badger
6mo ago
Golly, until this election we held politicians to a high standard of restraint and decorum, and now suddenly for no reason at all people don’t care much any more.
confused-badger
6mo ago
Of course serious inquiry into this is aware that correlation != causation and they employ lots of methods to establish causation.
confused-badger
7mo ago
Immigration increases wages in the long run
And the short-term lockout effect where we seem to be importing the upper middle class rather than growing our own natives into it.
The average person who thinks this (ie falls victim to the lump of labor fallacy) is frankly too stupid to make it to the upper middle class, and even if stopping H1B immigration miraculously didn’t simultaneously reduce labor demand, would never be in the running for a good tech job anyway. The right model for these kinds of people is that they are peasants who in other eras would’ve been fine with a low status peasant job, but in the era of social media cannot stomach that reality and so are lashing out.
The Trump movement is so obviously a movement by and for losers-in-denial. Everything that happens is easily understandable in those terms (the extremely cringe Charlie Kirk lionization is a perfect example of this).
confused-badger
7mo ago
Btw the subtext here where republicans are the principled free speech party is historically incorrect. There were a long series of religious right-motivated censoring movements in the 90s (and not to mention the Dixie Chicks and Freedom Fries stuff following 9/11). If you came of age during the late 2010s or early 2020s you won’t have the visceral memory of what this was like but I assure you this was a major thing at the time.
The only consistently free speech people have been the centrist democrats (Liberals who want higher taxes) and centrist republicans (Liberals who want lower taxes).
confused-badger
1yr ago
This is a confusing post because as of the end of the Biden administration, the unemployment rate was very low and prime age labor force participation rate was very high.
The world is so much bigger than software and it's a huge shame that the last 15-20 years of social media company success stories have narrowed smart, motivated peoples' imaginations so much.
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