Blockade IS a hot war already. The concern isn't hot war with TW, but hot war with US by deterring US intervention. Start with mining to disable harbours which is grayscale enough not to be considerd "kinetic" but more than enough to stop bulk energy/calorie goods. Shifts onus on TW to escalate to homeland strikes. Cratering runways is just exta level of petty that prevents strategic materials from being Berlin airlifted.
uninsurable
Why would PRC hit shipping not bound for TW, i.e. engage in commercial ships within 12nm of TW/PRC territorial waters? There were old studies about redirecting shipping east of TW outside of Chinese EEZ with increased fuel + insurance costs measured in low double digit percentages. As someone who followed this space for 20+ years, the narrative that war in TW strait or adjacent will ruin regional shipping was propaganda for giving TW greater significance prior to semiconductors.
Taiwan has hundreds of missiles
...
biggest ports will be out of commission
As with resumption of PRC TW hotwar, having mainland hit by TW is assumed. In Syria, US launched ~100 cruise missiles / TLAMs for 8 small targets, of which non trivial amounts were intercepted using antiquated RU anti air systems. Estimates for # of missiles needed to degrade PRC's SCS bases is high several 100s, i.e. significant % of USN's deployed VLS in region. Extensive concrete infra soaks a lot of hits. In UKR almost 4000? (have not kept up to date) RU missiles did managable damage on UKR war capacity. UKR has fraction of a fraction worth of targest relative to PRC and even less ability to recover. You're grossly overestimating the damage potential of TW stockpiles.
Just from a weaponeering perspective, TW has minimal capacity to take out an impactful amount of PRC infra, especially huge ports, which PRC can repair rapidly because TW can't generate high volume of fires in a single salvo, while their stockpiles even with projected acquistions are still paltry, which wouldn't survive PRC retaliatory fire anyway. Assuming the they can launch a surprise salvo without being discovered - there's limited places on a small island that is heavily monitored to bunker/prep launchers. TW can crank defense spending to 10% of GDP and island still won't have capacity to conventionally degreate PRC in any meaningful or prolonged way. The quantity (and current quality) differential is just that great, i.e. PRC aviation can drop 1000s of mines on TW ports in one sortie. It's not the preferred blockade scenario in terms of strategic flexibility, but in terms of blockading the island into sealed crypt, it is that trivially easy.
PRC + TW legally in ongoing civil war experiencing a period of detente.
isn't as easy as it sounds
It's almost trivially easy.
Practically, PRC can simply mine TW ports, crater run ways, via overwhelming glide mines and MLRS all within PRC borders (that can hit anywhere in TW + adjacent). US + co doesn't remotely have the demining, sealift or airlift capacity to logistically support TW off PRC waters. Nor will they convince any commercial fleet/insurers to go on suicide mission of... invading One China territory. It's like how Operation Starvation crippled JP during WW2. Except TW is much smaller than JP and PRC is a much larger industrial power than US during wartime. PRC can unilaterally render TW inaccessible - it can blockade TW with basically zero sustained naval or air effort and shift risk to US actions. And really if US/JP try to run the blockade they're legally invading into Chinese sovereign territory and it's WW3 anyway. TW may have chance to survive a PLA invasion, but IMO no chance of breaking a PRC blockade. Folks are grossly underestimating the proponderous of advantages PRC has off her coast.
US buildup
You just put more assets within PRC A2D2 bubble. Safe distance for US surface fleet is beyond 1st island chain right now.
risk that an actual shooting war will be against the US
There's also the political dimension of A) wanting to favourable localized war with US where PRC has advantage. B) worthwhile to gamble US inaction which will reverabate within region on status of US capability/commitment.
Time is on PRC side, especially demographically.
demographic storm hits
There are two demographic shifts happening in PRC.
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Net demographic decline which will only reduce PRC import dependancy and increase strategic flexibility.
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Massive demographic boom in high skill workforce - PRC generating as much as all OECD countries combined in talent.
Even shit tier PRC demographics will producing multiple times more indigenous talent than US via births + immigration due to base effect. Incidentally this relatively new cohort (result of Academic / S&T / R&D reforms in 00s) is barely starting to be tapped, and within 10 years has saw PRC rapidly climbing up science and innovation index controlled for quality. Skilled workforce demographic is divident responsible for advanced economic development and building comprehensive national power. It's how the other Tigers with terminal demographics kept climbing up value chain. It's how PRC went from capturing $4 in assembly fees for every iphone assembeled to $100 in componenent fees. Now it's going after the other $400 left on the BoM. High tech growth still has decades of run way in PRC relative to current position, combined with massive automation (more than next 14 advanced economies combined) and is doing it's part in:
open a wide lead over the US
Look at regional military force balance, where PRC is rapidly and massively overtaking. And my guess is, short/medium term (next 5-10 years) PRC rockety advancement will comprehensively negate any US capital assets advantage - see how battleships reset the field. Economically, PRC GDP by PPP has led for years and relative gap has been increasing. Also consider PRC limping in technology driven growth will be coupled with disruption in western growth due to PRC eating advanced economies market share. It will start hallowing out the premium manufacturing sectors west reserved for herself. Once PRC industry starts spitting out mature high value sectors for export, every $1 PRC sells is going to take $3 from western competitors. Or PRC industrial policy will absorb selling at -$1 loss to deny $6 to west. That's the game being played, combination of growth and convergence.
TBH any appeal to demographics on hobbling PRC geostrategic aspirations is stupid for the simple reason that exquisit modern militaries don't require much labour and medium/long term move towards autonomous platforms will require even less. Sustaining military several times current size (which has already been massively downsized due to reforms) is trivial for just the sheer stupid amount of bodies PRC has (and will have). PRC is generating so much skilled talent + covid that there's record youth unemployment - talent btw the PLA has been screaming to recruit.
TLDR no country in the world is positioned to have BETTER high-skilled workforce / demographics than PRC for building economic and military power in the coming decades. And decades is about time PRC needs to properly exploit said workforce.
That doesn't mean declining demographics won't increase pressures / squeeze QoL. Competitive pressure will drive top end productivity if anything. PRC/east asia is used to being pressure cooker society. Meanwhile, unlike more developed Tigers or west, massive regional income disparity + huge home ownership + enviable house hold savings rate = significant (imo most) PRC elderly simply don't have significant expectation (or need) for comprehensive old age social support like those already at risk of collapsing in advanced economies. That's the secret. No need to worry about having an umbrella to weather the storm when *taps head* there's no expectation for an umbrella. The actual demographic storm is going to consist of stubborn savings being turned into consumption and wealth transfers from those with excess into even more consumption, resolving PRC's current economic bug of being unable to stimulate consumption beacuse said savings locked into retirement. Is it going to suck? Yes. Is it going to stop PRC from converging and surpassing US. IMO not even a little.
From PRC perspective, US sustaining RU/UKR conflict has:
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Turned EU from potential spoiler that PRC was willing to expend massive resources to to court/neutralize to becoming geopolitically irrelevent short/medium term. Pro-atlantist views have become stronger, but atlantlist as a bloc as become significantly weaker, and will likely continue to. For PRC Weak EU being removed from the board (by US hand no less) is preferrable to strong EU that could lean pro US.
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Forced PRC + RU coupling. Made india to be less committal to west alignment. PRC just gained reliable energy / resource partner in RU who will continue to export to eager global south who has demonstrated comforting indifference to LIO interests, and will likely increase opportunities of de-dollarization. RU sanctions was illustrative for PRC, many other lessons learned for TW scenario. Meanwhile central asia also open to PRC influence.
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"Created a ring of allies in the Pacific" is (continues to be) opposite of reality. Go check out the OG first island chain PRC containment schemes proposed by US policy wonks from 5 years ago. Both Trump and Biden tried to push IRBMs, AGILE Combat Support basing and military hardware actually neccessary for PRC containment... but there's been no takers. Contrary to western narrative, PRC wolf warrior has been extremely successful in cowling region into ineffective hedging, even more so after Pelosi visit and PRC exercises in response. Apart from JP and AU whose too far away, no one in region has even virtue signalled any substantive commitment to enhancing US security architecture in the region. With strengthening dollar and where global economy is heading, it's safe to dial back JP and AU commitments as well, weak economy will likely stall JP efforts at increasing defense spending, and the chance of AUKUS delivering subs before a PRC TW invasion is miniscule. If you follow the space closely, US has basically thrown every tool in the box to "create a ring of allies" in the last 5 years and relative to what US wonks imagined, current arrangement is massive failure. Ergo heavy strategic focus on porcupining TW, which wouldn't be desperately necessary if PRC could have been deterred with viable containment framework.
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PRC slow growth (largely self imposed) adjusted for inflation is still higher than US. More so adjusted by PPP. Combine with even more startling relative real decline by US partners. Sure, PRC doing not great, but almost everyone else relevant is doing much worse.
When Blinken said in May:
China is the only country with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to do it.
All this US flexing has made her sphere weaker (with more room to fall) while improving PRC's relative economic, diplomatic, and military space. Hence US going extra hard cracking down on PRC tech, but hard to say how effective it will be. PRC was suppose to be US priority while RU the sideshow, but I'd argue US efforts in Europe has largely strengthened PRC's position, especially near periphery including IndoPac. In terms of US grand strategy, that's relative decline.
Western PRC watchers and analysts in general didn't expect Xi to full sweep the standing comittee with loyalists, instead of allowing some (rival/CYL) reformists to stick around. They're now pricing in Xi/PRC going more autarkic than with a few reformers on board that sectors that had been targeted (big tech) will continue to be targeted), that zero-covid will stick around. Western MSM coverage of HK/SH crashing and foreign outflows overlooks that domestic strategic industries like defense increased. I think AVIC hit 10% daily limit. Just like how wages and employment in PRC hard tech and strategic sectors increased while soft / consumer tech tanked. The TLDR is Xi is going to keep boosting strategic indigenous industries, even if it means slapping others to free up talent and resources. Where "others" is frequently what's in western portfoliios.
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