faceh
1mo ago
My maximum charitable take is that they're just giving audiences the thing they've shown they want.
I model most movies along three axes for what justifies said movie's existence and creates the appeal to the audience.
They can be plot driven; They can be action driven; They can be character driven.
Or often, some combination of all 3.
Character driven means we get engaged with a unique/interesting character, who is put into certain situations, has a certain arc, and comes out changed in some way. The plot doesn't have to make sense, we're mostly just focused on seeing the character's reaction to what's happening, how they interact with other characters, and the lessons they learn by the end. Writing needs to be good, but mostly in terms of dialogue, giving the character(s) a recognizable voice and appropriately comedic or dramatic lines.
Action driven, we're there to see a spectacle, the plot is mostly there to set up scenarios for the action, and if the action is sensational enough the audience doesn't notice or forgives plot holes or crappy writing. You write your character some pithy one-liners and give enough of a skeleton of a plot to move things along. Choreography matters a lot more here.
Plot driven, though... we're there for an interesting story. Entertaining events, surprising twists, revelations, and a satisfying conclusion are mandatory. If the twist doesn't land, if there's noticeable holes in the plot, if there's too many boring scenes, it fails. If your audience is watching because they're "invested in the plot" and REALLY want to see where it goes, you have to make it work the entire time, and pay off effectively. In this case, the writing pretty much HAS to be solid, minimal/no plot holes, AND you have to keep your characters acting consistently.
What Hollywood appears to have noticed is that general audiences mostly prefer character and action driven vehicles... and care very little about purely plot-driven ones, where the story, not the characters, is the central draw.
I'd blame it on Marvel, to some extent. People show up to watch Thor or Iron Man or Starlord get into crazy shenanigans, with a big, splashy action fight scene at the climax to justify the cost of the ticket.
If you give them their beloved characters, and give them a pulse-pounding action sequence or two, most audiences will give it a thumbs up. They won't analyze the plot threads or question the film's logic or pick apart character motivations too much. So why bother giving them a tight, logical, completely unique story?
And its much, much easier to write stories for such films, where you don't have to make the plots completely coherent, just make your audience 'have fun' and you're golden.
So I think plot just falls by the wayside, and Hollywood optimizes for putting well-liked characters on screen and making up crazy scenarios to put them in, motivation or logical sense be damned.
faceh
1mo ago
Right. But I'm pointing out that if you were approached by Epstein and he said "hey that girl you banged was actually 15/16. We can keep it under wraps but you'll have to do some favors going forward", aren't you a LITTLE morally culpable for not taking the hit and blowing the whistle? Yes, you acted with reasonable propriety, you were lied to, you weren't intentionally doing the illegal thing, but now you're buying into it.
It beggars belief that nobody attending the parties came into knowledge that he was bringing around underage girls. Its uncertain how many sought out the parties because there were underage girls there, but the claims of "oh yeah, everybody heard the rumor that this was going on" only come out once the truth is already known.
Sure would be nice for someone to proffer these facts before they become public knowledge.
faceh
1mo ago
Epstein‘s MO was to lie about his girls’ ages to collect blackmail material, theres no reason to believe these people are like actual pedophiles
I mean, sure. But you'd really hope that such people would want reassurances that the woman was there willingly and weren't coerced, drugged, or blackmailed into it themselves. I think most 'normal' people would be sketched out, even if they don't immediately go to the cops.
That he was able to get away with it for quite a while hints that people were willingly turning a blind eye. Not the same as being complicit, but it still reads like a moral failure.
And of course we can go AKSHULLY there's no pedophilia involved whatsoever b/c all the girls were post-pubescent and in their teens. I am sure some people think there's documented proof of like, children being raped or something.
Though of course the more conspiratorial element is that the really nasty stuff occurred on the jet or on the private island.
Do I think there was literal child sacrifice or something going on? No.
But my priors on someone who is involved in pimping underage women out being involved in even more depraved activities are... reasonably high.
It is genuinely harder for me to believe that almost all global elites diligently avoid taboo and socially abhorrent/illegal behaviors. Especially with the more recent dominoes falling WRT to P. Diddy and that whole circle. That said, I don't think they're going around consuming human flesh or bathing in virgin blood, I doubt the very worst of the theories are at all accurate.
What can I say, ensuring there are consequences for elites misbehavior is one of my pet issues.
faceh
1mo ago
Could he say something that makes him look more guilty?
"I am pre-emptively pardoning any person who might be connected to this case whatsoever."
(i.e. what Biden did with the Hunter situation).
I'd immediately assume he was directly involved if that happened.
I did some self-interrogation on why I was dissappointed with this outcome, and I think a lot of the issue is that there wasn't a clear definition of what people wanted to see from this investigation.
There's at least two, maybe three 'generally accepted' definitions of the "Epstein Client List."
-
The literal list of people who appear in Epstein's notes and logs and such. This we kind of know exists, and it has been released, at least in part. Not dispositive proof of any actual wrongdoing.
-
The list of people that Epstein kept of those he had compromised directly and trafficked women/girls to for purposes of blackmail, and who thus would be at risk of legal consequences if discovered. This would be pretty decent proof of wrongdoing.
-
The list of people that the FBI has constructed via corroboration of details in the above notes and evidence and established some cause to believe were actually complicit in Epstein's activities either because they benefited from them or were trying to keep their own activities under wraps. THIS one would be the grounds for actual legal action.
And I find that I wanted them to release #3. I don't want a bunch of disparate notes and papers that people have to comb over and construct elaborate theories around, I wanted the designated law enforcement officials to do their job and actually zero in on the people 'involved' in the conspiracy (look, we KNOW there was a conspiracy, its beyond 'theory' at this point) and thus would be truly culpable, even if there wasn't quite good enough evidence to convict. The FBI is very good at rolling up whole organized crime groups at the same time. There's a reason the Mafia is not really a major force in the U.S. anymore. If there was a larger group of people at work its impossible that they COULDN'T trace their activities. It is possible they traced them and realized it would be a fruitless exercise to attempt prosecution.
So people who wanted lists 1 or 2 released are disappointed because they're being told such a thing technically doesn't exist. Which may be true! Maybe the only true list of co-conspirators existed in Epstein's brain. Which, if so, definitely bumps up my personal odds of him being murdered.
But I think the real issue that is pissing people off is the lack of #3. As in, we know there were girls being trafficked, we KNOW there must have been people they were trafficked to, and there's significant reason to believe some of them were high powered politicians, celebs, and other elites. If the FBI has exonerated such people, fine. But what it feels like is that they just kinda shoved it all in a drawer and decided there was no reason to dig deeper. Or were told to do so by some other power.
Anyhow, I genuinely expect that the truly salacious, explosive details will be kept under wraps until most of the involved parties are old and all but immune to prosecution, or dead. We'll get a declassified Epstein report in about 10-20 years that reveals the full extent of the coverup, but by then it'll be hard to gin up the public ire enough to actually take any action, and obtaining justice against the involved parties will be impossible, so it'll just fade into status as a historical scandal.
That's just how it goes. Forget it Jake, it's Chinatown
faceh
1mo ago
To an extent, I'm using the availability heuristic based on my initial impressions of white identitarians as I remember them.
The Northwest Front was my first exposure to this particular approach to White Nationalism, and while I wouldn't call the members associated with it dysgenic, well, you can see how effective they are at website design. There's a sheen of incompetence over the whole affair.
faceh
1mo ago
The simple fact is that there's like a 2:1 guy:girl ratio on the apps.
And the girls are much, MUCH more selective than the guys.
So the pool of women being limited is, inherently, the issue. Some guys will lose, guaranteed. Its not a traditional market where you can achieve mutual gains through trade.
And in a zero sum game, optimizing to try to win just makes it harder on everyone at once.
And it IS a zero sum game. Every guy that pairs off with a woman is making it harder for the remaining guys to get what they want.
So telling guys to optimize their profiles is just increasing the competitive pressure with very minimal change in success odds. Improving YOUR chances makes some other guy's chances decrease, and vice versa. If you both compete as hard as you can, most of the efforts are wasted for no real gain.
You'd like to find one that doesn't find your interests repugnant, though.
And again, why optimize to compete for the same limited pool of women that every other guy is now optimizing for.
faceh
1mo ago
Indeed, once you clear the dozen other hurdles and expectations she'll have too.
I'm just pointing out that if you optimize for the 'wrong' thing, you could end up in a local maxima that gets you more likes in general, but actually filters out the women you'd really be happy to have.
And hey, if you get one and have to 'settle' a bit, its not so bad.
But if EVERYONE is optimizing for the same set of things, and the pool of women is fixed, you're really just creating a zero sum game that means you can get nothing at all despite (because of?) giving up on the things you really like.
I repeat, the pool of women is mostly fixed, so why do you want to optimize for the same thing every other guy is optimizing for?
faceh
1mo ago
Even if that take is outdated, liking anime and video games isn't something that women are going to find attractive.
As stated by @MathWizard up there, if you want someone with similar interests to you, you gotta put it out there somehow.
And as per usual, if you're hot, you could straight up say you're into lolicon and hentai and you'd still get likes.
So are you optimizing for hookups, or something resembling a soulmate?
In the grand scheme, its probably not changing your odds much in aggregate, but somewhat increasing the chances of finding someone who likes what you like.
faceh
1mo ago
Its not so much that.
But as with rules 1 and 2, attractive people have a lot more options to pursue in life, so it is just inherently less likely they'll pursue white identitarianism.
And slightly MORE likely that a less attractive person, who wants to feel some sense of belonging and superiority, might pursue white identitarianism.
i.e., if they have nothing going for them in life other than being white, it is not too surprising they might lean into that factor. Not that their internal hatred warps their physical appearance.
Exceptions will abound, but I'll take a bet as to the aggregates.
I still would avoid obvious icky hobbies on a dating profile. Anime has a very strong association with porn, child porn, and childishness.
This take is so heavily out of date I'm wondering if it was frozen in about 2011 and just recently thawed out and revived.
Anime fans aren't relegated to 4chan these days.
One of the most popular series on Netflix in 2022 was an anime series tied into the Cyberpunk:2077 universe.
Netflix has been producing a TON of original anime series themselves. They literally revived a series from 2001 to help fill out their roster.
Which should tell you they're finding viewership for this stuff, and not just among loli enthusiasts.
Now, you might be correct as to how the older generations view anime, but there's probably a similar number of female weebs as male weebs about in the younger gens. Now, if you're looking for someone who is NOT a weeb, then yeah, maybe exclude it.
Sounds like Detachment 2702 has been busy.
I do often wonder if some nontrivial amount of incompetence is tolerated by large organizations, since that makes it a tad easier to hide certain intentional actions and pass them off as accidents or coincidences.
Kind of like how "falling from a window at great height" is apparently either very popular as a suicide method in Russia or just happens accidentally a lot.
Yeah.
Even if you assume there's a large contingent of white people who actively would prefer to live away from most minorities... the ones who are in a position to openly state and act on that preference are probably not the high-quality human capital that most would want to live around, either.
Or they've made their white identity the entire basis of their personality and those folks tend to be tedious.
faceh
1mo ago
Rich countries tend to suffer from Cost Disease and overregulation which stops a lot of things that ought to be easy to do from happening.
I agree that after you get this many wildfires, there should be incentives to throw money at the problem until it stops. But if people are willing to throw money without limit, someone will be willing to soak all those funds up and deliver as little as possible.
Its kinda funny (not in the 'haha' way) that government and citizens alike ignore this market signal of "IF YOU BUILD HERE, YOUR HOUSE WILL LIKELY BE DESTROYED, (AND YOU MAY DIE) ARE YOU ABSOLUTELY SURE?
That said, I also note that we just build things way more densely than ever before, in terms of how much expensive infrastructure we pack into each acre in some places.
I sincerely assume that there is no chance that Insurance Cos. and their underwriters can stay solvent if a serious earthquake hits the Los Angeles area, or a Cat 5. Hurricane rips through Miami.
If the insurance was charged at the actual market rate, I would also guess that many places would only be inhabited by the uberrich who can self-insure, or by the poorer folks who go without insurance, build cheap, and don't quite understand the risk they're assuming.
I live in Coastal Florida so I've seen a mix of both happening.
faceh
1mo ago
Guess that depends on whether you consider plagues or pandemics in that category.
And I'd specifically point out that WWII took a long time to kill that many people, whereas most natural disasters happen over minutes, to hours, to days at most.
In 2004, an earthquake/Tsunami combo killed like 225,000 people in a day.
So on a simple deaths/hour calculation, I'm not certain your point would hold.
A single hurricane allegedly releases almost as much energy as the entirety of humanity's nuclear bomb stockpile. And there's 5-15 of those per year.
Weather is very complex but new AI methods are useful here, plus more sensors would be useful.
That's the, I dunno, "scary" part.
Quelling weather in one place might make it harsher somewhere else. How do you dissipate the energy of this system without it bursting out all at once somewhere?
That said, I would be all for engineering the paths of major hurricanes so they don't intersect with land at all. Simple enough approach.
Note, I'm huge on eventually rendering weather a nonissue. Become a Kardashev II Civ ASAP.
Or build O'Neill colonies where the weather can be precisely controlled at all times.
faceh
1mo ago
And if you're prepared to pay for that, you can!
That's about the reality if you're buying waterfront property on the coastline of Florida.
Naturally, only really wealthy people can buy such property.
faceh
1mo ago
End of day you really can't account for every variable, or conditions that are far outside the 'expected' normal range.
Weather in particular is a chaotic system. Some days the conditions just happen to coincide to make things more severe than expected.
Remember just about a month ago a Swiss village got swept away by an avalanche. What are we to do about this risk? Engineer every mountain to be stable?
Or Volcanic eruptions. We don't HAVE an engineering solution to those!
The arguably better solution in many cases is to build the houses and infrastructure as cheaply as can reasonably be done so they can be more easily rebuilt, and spend the extra money on early warning and evacuation efforts.
faceh
1mo ago
Interestingly, women’s reply rate is highest for bios which are only slightly negative, whereas men’s reply rate is highest for very negative bios.
Cursed stat. They complain about the men with the nasty bios and the disparaging comments yet reward that with extra attention.
Although I'd be very surprised if that was what led to actual dates and even MORE surprised if it led to relationships.
What are you optimizing for.
Also no, nobody has a strategy that works consistently and the dating apps themselves are very motivated to shut one down if it arose.
They're gamified to all hell so its really like asking someone for tips on roulette or slots.
faceh
1mo ago
Flash floods and earthquakes are probably my most feared natural disasters, since they give very little warning and there's no real workable contingency for their occurrence.
But as far as disaster preparedness, we humans simply aren't (yet) capable of holding back the forces of nature when they run amok.
Occasionally we get reminded that even our most destructive wars barely hold a candle to a single "act of God."
There's almost nowhere on the planet you can keep your kids that won't be vulnerable to some natural disaster or other.
Civilization has mitigated so many threats that it is easy to feel safe and sound, but every single year there's a set of dice rolls that determine if a particular human settlement gets obliterated or not.
Unless we're willing to spend the entirety of global GDP attempting to disaster-proof every single town and city, we are to left with the option of praying to whatever higher power we believe in.
Also likely true.
Teens and even many adults probably need some new stimuli every couple minutes if they're going to keep eyes on the screen. Remembering a subtle setup or vital piece of exposition that comes to a head in the 3rd act requires that they actually noticed it when it happened.
I'd guess that's why the Minecraft movie made so much money, just constant flood of stimulus after stimulus, don't need to care about any particular one, it won't come into play later.
To say nothing of the Super Mario Bros. movie, which I saw in theaters with friends, and the entire time I couldn't help myself thinking "okay, WHY do the blocks float and why are there random powerups hidden in them to give you special abilities? WHY does Kong society have an arena for gladiatorial combat? Why do they have dozens of go-karts, and why the hell does this rainbow road exist in the first place?"
I don't ask these questions about the video games! But the movie has the conceit of a plot... but I've literally never seen a plot that was more based on "something happens to move us to the next scene" and the movie just lacks any real connective tissue. Actually, the Deadpool and Wolverine Movie, which I also saw in theaters was also kind of like that. Probably the laziest setup for a 'final showdown' I've ever seen.
Also solid point. Even a little bit of executive meddling can upset the delicately constructed but perfectly balanced plotline you established, and the the end product just seems like a mess. Much easier to disrupt a good plot than to build it.
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