faceh
21hr ago
Yeah, I imagine paramedics have a clinical but unvarnished view of human fragility. Most of us are probably, in theory, only a few inches and a bad fall away from parapalegia at any given moment when we're not fast asleep.
Seeing what a short fall to concrete can do to a human, its sometimes amazing to think that we don't keep the whole world (or ourselves) ensconced in bubble wrap at all times.
faceh
1d ago
If we allowed the human advancement for advancement's sake, then our enemies would gain political power.
Ironically, one of the better reasons to get space-based industry going is to try and outrun these Molochian incentives for a while.
My dream is to have a nice little O'Neill Cylinder of my own, tucked inside a nondescript asteroid, powered by fusion, so that I can genuinely just live life in peace, such that there's no major incentive to try and exercise political authority over me and mine.
Unless we think that the drive of the collectivists will not permit them to leave someone alone who could be forced to come into the fold. At which point I'd rather fight them to the death before we get off-planet.
faceh
1d ago
My general response to that is "the market would sort it out" under normal conditions.
We just can't let the existence of human suffering, somewhere, be an excuse to shut down human advancement everywhere.
If we are productive enough to have excess resources lying around after we feed, house, clothe, and entertain ourselves, some of it can probably get thrown at speculative science projects or pure pursuit of knowledge sans profit motive.
Is there demand for it? Probably not that much... but the people that would demand it also happen to be pretty rich.
Some of that also comes down to how you answer the Fermi paradox. If there's a small but nonzero chance of happening across other intelligent life (or the remnants of same) that's a potentially massive payoff, so buying a few lotto tickets 'makes sense' if survival isn't compromised (lol Dark Forest Theory).
Deep Space Telescopes in particular seem to be relatively cheap to deploy and have a small but real chance of discovering something really, really cool... even if not immediately valuable.
If we were moving rapidly towards space industrialization, they'd also be useful for finding ripe targets for Von Neumann Probes.
faceh
1d ago
I can count one of my ratchet clicks away from leftism when I first heard the performance of the poem "Whitey on the Moon."
From 1970, complaining about the moon landing whilst poverty exists.
Just an insane level of scope blindness. "How dare you move the course of human history and the frontiers of exploration forward while I have to pay more for food.
Which ignores that we can walk and chew gum at the same time, but also represents the kind of envious Luddism that threatens to keep us confined to this rock forever.
(And no, this isn't a feature that is limited to the left).
Agreed, but even aiming at the companies manufacturing intermediate parts can work.
(I just have an ETF that holds robotics and automation stocks)
The Chinese dominance is concerning.
Personally I'm bearish on Chinese industry in the medium term, so I'd still prefer holding what few U.S. options exist.
faceh
2d ago
My genuine expectation is the next explosion/bubble (if AGI isn't cracked circa 2028 as seemingly expected) is robotics, specifically automated robotics.
I expect quadcopter-style autonomous drones, human-form-factor robots, and non-humanoid robots are about to see a surge in usage. Elon announcing that they'd literally shut down Tesla production lines to build more Optimus robots seems like one of those screaming sirens indicating what the future brings if he's positioning himself to dominate the production of physical robots NOW.
And this and other indicators have not percolated through to the mainstream awareness yet, so we're absolutely still 'early' to the game. And with the looming population crisis, robots are going to be a NECESSARY tech tree branch to explore.
So what are some companies in that branch of the tech tree that stand to gain from the 'intermediate' phase of the robotics industry?
Do I know specifically which stocks are best to aim for a 5x? Hell no.
Tesla would be a good one... but hard to see it genuinely 5xing in a short period given how inflated its value already seems.
Otherwise, make a few bets on some pharma companies to discover something even cooler than magical weight loss drugs (likely with AI assistance). Problem there is FDA approval being slow.
faceh
3d ago
I mean, I liquidated almost my entire crypto holdings to get the funds for my house/holdover for extra expenses.
And I don't regret it, because the crypto world went FULL retard after I bought the house, and while the house value increased a lot, the mere fact of "I can live here and not be bothered by increasing rents or volatile crypto markets" was a source of peace. Decent interest rate too.
I've had some investments perform better, but none that were as directly beneficial to me in the interim period.
Buying a house you intend to reside in for the long term is an easier play than buying one you might or might not be staying in five years later.
But that's very dependent on the labor market. Can't stay somewhere if there's no decent-paying jobs.
There was a point in time where I held two whole Bitcoin. Now I hold functionally zero. Can't live in a Bitcoin, can't store my stuff in one, can't invite friends over to hang out in one, and BTC hasn't provided me with minor projects to work on outside that significantly help with my mental health.
I dunno. I could spend my days tracking the market's ups and downs... or I could tend my garden, do small repairs around the house, sleep in a bed that I cannot be removed from absent an act of God.
Its not so bad.
I think it is underestimated that for a certain type of person, the mental peace of owing nobody else any money (which gives them a piece of leverage over you) and having a decent amount of savings squirreled away GENUINELY outweighs an extra 2-3% of gains from keeping things in the market.
Best way to describe it is that debt = fragility. If you get behind on payments, the interest rate marches on. The creditor can call in the funds under certain circumstances, whether you have the money or not. You get behind and it can be a struggle to catch up, and it inhibits you in other ways. And bankruptcy is an option but you have to be in dire straits to pull that lever.
And it can also make it harder to take on new debt even when that would be advisable.
I'm not one of those "usury is evillllllll" guys, but I am one of those "I pay every debt on time and as owed" guys so the mental stress of knowing I gotta keep up with payments is annoying.
Me, I like short term, secured loans as my go-to. Seen too many people get screwed over by personally guaranteeing debt for things that weren't productive enough to justify it.
faceh
4d ago
But I'm not sure how workable that is in practice.
I just note that Florida has had VERY few issues with rioters and harassment of civilians in the past 5 years.
There are of course other reasons for that.
I think it almost facially true that if the law disfavors those who act against the harassers, then most will choose to just sit by and take no action, which likely emboldens the protestors further.
It also sidesteps the issue of local officials who might tacitly support the protestors and order Law Enforcement to stand down.
I would never blame someone for not wanting to escalate a situation on their own, though.
faceh
5d ago
Maybe it's my imagination, but I feel like I've seen more and more of this Terrorism Lite in recent years. Things like traffic-blocking; meeting disruption; etc.
I mean... look up historical activist tactics, especially in the '60s and '70's.
Both terrorist-lite and terrorist-heavy tactics get employed, and there are whole books written on the proper training and implementation of each.
In the same way, there could be laws which sanction people, organizations, and governments for providing material support to what I have called Terrorism Lite. (Perhaps someone can suggest a better term.)
Generally agreed, but the other approach is to empower those on the receiving end to immediately respond relatively harshly and given them legal support for doing so.
Florida's notorious anti-riot law did in fact increase penalties for organizing riots/violent protests. But it also added legal protections for individuals who are targeted by rioters and respond with violent action (limited to self defense, mind).
I think its obvious that if interrupting a religious service with a mob of people could get someone beaten or even shot, and the defender would be legally immune from consequences... they'd be much, much less inclined to take on the risks inherent in that action.
This is a separate question from whether the churchgoers have the ability and will to actually get violent.
And yet when I argue that it's not all that big a deal on the individual level if the Mona Lisa were destroyed, I get dogpiled.
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