faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
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User ID: 884
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
1mo ago
Me personally? No. If the US government had given a single known sociopath a license to kill 5 people, though, trying to get them to change that decision would not be a very high priority for me.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
1mo ago
Rephrasing - is it a big enough problem that the disease of having ~1k kids/year go on puberty blockers is worse than the "cure" that would be implemented by the political apparatus would be? Being realistic about what historical political "solutions" have looked like.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
1mo ago
... I don't think puberty blockers are as damaging as lobotomies, and also puberty blockers in the context of gender affirming care are like 10x less frequent than lobotomies were at the peak of that craze. I think people 50 years from now (assuming the world of 50 years from now substantially resembles the world of today) will probably think of it similar to how we think about high schoolers smoking or using tanning beds (i.e "basically not at all").
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
1mo ago
I don't think the once-ascendant ideology is particularly entrenched anymore. The anti-woke/anti-trans movement at this point feels very similar to the way the atheism community felt in the 2012 era, as they ran out of defensible causes and started to turn to indefensible causes and on each other. Had they packed up and gone home once their original goals were met (e.g. no prayer in schools) I think the world would be a happier place.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
1mo ago
Lots of societies have had to deal with some folly of youth causing some number of kids to ruin their lives in one way or another in their quest for status and acceptance. In ancient Rome, kids seeking social status joined gladiatorial schools, and many of those kids ended up crippled or dying. In Victorian England, girls wore incredibly tight corsets which caused reduced lung capacity, skeletal deformations, and abdominal muscle weakness, which led to lots of health problems (including much higher chances of miscarriage or death in childbirth).
Just because something is a problem doesn't mean a political solution exists. The politician's fallacy ("We must do something. This is something. Therefore we must do this") is frequently cited as a fallacy due to the third line, but the first line is often also wrong - we don't actually have to try to solve every problem.
I think the use of puberty blockers is a problem of small enough scale and low enough severity that it's probably better to just let it ride.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
4mo ago
Which line of that grant application says "no white boys allowed in our science club"? Be specific.
Mind that those numbers are over 2 years or half the term. Unless you're saying there were 6M+ distinct people who immigrated illegally during Biden's term?
Edit: also, for the claim that over half of all illegal immigrants came here in the last 5 years to hold up, we'd have to say that the census under Biden was underestimating in a way that previous censuses didn't. In the absence of better data, I'm inclined to trust the census to at least get the relative proportions correct.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
2mo ago
I live in California, I interact with people who are not here legally on a quite regular basis. Thinking about e.g. the people I know who have a new partner/housemate, or got a new nanny/gardener, and then filtering down to those that are not here legally, they're mostly people who have been here for a while. Substantial selection effects, obviously.
But also census data says, of foreign-born non-citizens, the distribution of dates of entry as of 2023 was
Entered 2010 or later: 12.8M (56%)
Entered 2000 to 2009: 4.9M (21%)
Entered 1990 to 1999: 3.0M (13%)
Entered before 1990: 2.1M (9%)
Total: 22.9M
As of 2021 the same data was
Entered 2010 or later: 10.2M (48%)
Entered 2000 to 2009: 5.3M 24.79%
Entered 1990 to 1999: 3.3M 15.66%
Entered before 1990: 2.4M 11.32%
Total 21.2M
So that's an increase of 1.7M non-citizen immigrants in the 2 year period from 2021 to 2023, with an increase of 2.6M who entered after 2010 (and a decrease of ~900k non-citizens who entered before 2010 over the same time period, who left/died/gained citizenship). And keep in mind that in a normal year 700k to 1M green cards are issued. So I don't see space for half of illegal immigrants to have come over later than 2020.
Where are you getting your data, aside from vibes?
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
1mo ago
Most of the 1.5 million trans people in the US are not minors, and the fraction of the trans minors who go on puberty blockers is about 3%, not "only 10%". Unless you're talking about what they do once they reach adulthood, but if you want to forbid adults from doing things they want to do with their bodies, trying to add regulations around what kids can do probably won't help.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
1mo ago
I do see the difference, but moral panics over "think of the children" have a history of having the reactions be cures that are worse than the disease, and I see no particular reason to think that this time is different. Do you have a reason to think that this time is different?
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
2mo ago
Huge relative to the number of illegal immigrants already in the country? I will repeat the question I asked Dean:
If you were to go to a home depot parking lot at 7 am and talk to the workers there, what do you think the median time the undocumented subset of workers have been in the country would be? I predict 8 ± 3 years.
Do you predict otherwise? If not, that means that most illegal residents of the US are not recent arrivals.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
2mo ago
If you were to go to a home depot parking lot at 7 am and talk to the workers there, what do you think the median time the undocumented subset of workers have been in the country would be? I predict 8 ± 3 years.
Do you predict otherwise? If not, that means that most illegal residents of the US are not recent arrivals.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
1mo ago
Or loses a malpractice suit when they do malpractice, yeah. Again, 40k kids a year start "gender affirming care", only 1k of those 40k start puberty blockers. I really don't think puberty blockers warrant special attention here.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
1mo ago
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
1mo ago
At all. If you cared about corruption by anyone as much as you claim, you should already have investigated the claims against the previous administration, and you would have had no choice but to conclude that it at least looks fishy, and therefore you would have investigated it and you would now have bulletproof arguments that it wasn't corruption
Which specific claims are you talking about here? Hunter Biden? Stolen election? Biden's "fuck all y'all I'm pardoning everyone" end-of-term pardons? The congressional insider trading thing? Or is there some other specific, credible, and concrete accusation of corruption that you are referring to?
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
2mo ago
Is your claim that there haven't been substantial changes since Trump took office?
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
4mo ago
Those with scientific merit will get reapproved and those whithout merit will get to spend even more time complaining about "right-wing anti-intellectualism" than they already do.
That sounds like a concrete prediction. Care to make it concrete enough to bet on?
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
6mo ago
It's not even clear that LLMs are analogous to cars here. When you call something a coder, I expect it to be able to do the job of a coder, rather than being a tool that helps improve performence.
The original tweet Jim referenced said
o3 is approximately equivalent to the #175 best human in competitive programming on CodeForces. The median IOI gold medalist has a rating of 2469; o3 has 2727.
Jim summarized this as
Apparently this AI is ranked as the 175th best coder on Earth.
Which is perhaps a little sloppy in terms of wording, but seems to me to be referring to coding as a task rather than a profession. I've never seen "coder" used as the word for the profession of people whose job requires them to write code, while I have seen that term used derogatorily to refer to people who can only code but struggle with the non-coding parts of the job like communicating with other people.
That said, if you're interpeting "coder" as a synonym for "software developer" and I'm interpreting it as meaning "someone who can solve leetcode puzzles", that's probably the whole disconnect right there.
From what you're saying they'd be more like high-performance component that could improve a particular car, but won't be able to go anywhere on their own.
Yeah, that's a good analogy. Coding ability is a component of a functional software developer, an important one, but one that is not particularly useful in isolation.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
11mo ago
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
1mo ago
I would say "more attention than puberty blockers", because the number of affected kids is much higher. Something caused a massive uptick in either the experience of dysphoria, the reaction to dysphoria, or some combination thereof. I think "social contagion" is a thought-terminating non-explanation here. To reduce the rate of trans identification, I think it would be worth looking into what generally leads to discomfort with being embodied (as that seems to correlate extremely strongly, and also seems to be much more common than it used to be).
Of course, if you don't actually care about that and your main objection is to "point deer say horse", that is perfectly valid. But in that event I also don't take statements of concern about puberty blockers at face value, and will discount your policy suggestions in that area accordingly.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
1mo ago
Oh nice. That is relevant to my interests in a way that I will share on Tuesday.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
1mo ago
Not a dedicated one, no, just a simple little 10 line Python script
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
2mo ago
Oh good point. An all-wheel drive vehicle is a four-wheel drive under easy driving conditions, and a one-wheel drive if one of the four wheels loses traction.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
2mo ago
I know they will lie about this and claim a massive drop in traffic regardless of what actually happens.
Do you think the NJ port authority is falsifying the EZPass data they're sharing here?
Look like puberty blockers were prescribed for trans reasons to about 1400 kids in 2021, with that number increasing by about 200 kids / year. Puberty blockers were additionally prescribed to about 20,000 kids in 2021 for central precocious puberty (puberty starting before age 8 for girls or age 9 for boys).
As a point of comparison, about 3100 teens between the ages of 12 and 19 died in car crashes in 2021.
Is there a reason you think that puberty blockers, specifically, are a big problem?
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