faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
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User ID: 884
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faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
User ID: 884
I think "becomes the principle intellectual force developing AI" is a threshold that dissolves into fog when you look at it too closely, because the nature of the field is already that the tasks that take the most time are continuously being automated. Computers write almost all machine code, and yet we don't say that computers are rhe principle force driving programming progress, because humans are still the bottleneck where adding more humans is the most effective way to improve output. "AI inference scaling replaces humans as the bottleneck to progress", though, is pretty unlikely to cleanly coincide with "AI systems reach some particular level of intellectual capability", and may not even ever happen (e.g. if availability of compute for training becomes a tighter bottleneck than either human or AI intellectual labor - rumor in some corners is that this has already happened). But the amount that can be done per unit of human work will nevertheless expand enormously. I expect the world will spend quite a bit of calendar time (10+ years) in the ambiguous AI RSI regime, and arguably has already entered that regime early past year.
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