fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
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User ID: 3415
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
1yr ago
My claim is that anyone who says "we should simply tell them to not have sex" as a method of preventing unwanted babies is being willfully ignorant of the fact it's been conclusively demonstrated not to work
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
1yr ago
That does seem plausible, although a bit too narrow
But also humans like to have sex so if you tell them "don't have sex, that is all" then they won't listen to you and won't use birth control they're unaware exists
I tried skimming a few papers but figuring out which states the data came from was a pain in the ass so I gave up, happy to both walk away feeling like we're right
given this place has always been more disaffected liberals than anything else
I think I probably fall into that bucket but it's funny because I've been turbo posting here for a week due to an injury keeping me indoors and I absolutely feel like my political/etc views are a minority
Maybe this is a recent development, but this place strikes me as rather* right wing with a strong pro-natalist/Christian lean
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
1yr ago
Putting everything else aside, flexing your upvote count on someone is profoundly cringe
Especially as this site has a pretty strong ideological bias, and like literally every website with voting, voting is 100% indicative of in-group/out-group agreement/disagreement and is largely unrelated to comment quality
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
1yr ago
https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters
They have, continuing a trend that started over a year ago
I would like to present one of ChatGPTs greatest works, it's also like chatGPT 3 or 3.5, so it's basically an archeological text at this point.
Shooty shooty pew pew pew!
Let’s all learn what guns can do!
Liberals in the USA
Love to nod their heads and say,
“You bought your guns from a store!
You can’t fight a civil war!
Fight the army, you will lose!
They have jets and tanks to use!”
That’s not where the story ends!
They have homes, and kids, and friends!
Tyrants threaten you with bombs?
Just remember: they have moms!
You can’t live inside your jet!
Can we find you? Yes, you bet!
You’d send soldiers and marines
Up against AR-15s?
They’re outnumbered ten to one.
That is why I need a gun.
Don’t forget, because it’s true:
Government is scared of you.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
1yr ago
Have competent technocrats in positions of power? And then have them do competent things publicly
The Canadian liberals just did this pivot, although we'll see if they can follow through
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
1yr ago
I think his point here is that repeatedly having sex, if left to run it's natural course, will result in a baby.
So repeatedly having sex and always using birth control means you've deviated from the natural course in a way that prevents a baby from growing up
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
1yr ago
don't have premarital sex
How is convincing western populations not to do this going?
Follow up question, does abstinence only sex education show any efficacy in preventing pregnancies?
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
1yr ago
Because 1 clearly doesn't work?
Remember all the abstinence only culture war stuff in the late 2000s / early 2010s?
Pretty sure abstinence only sex ed resulted in the highest rates of teenage pregnancy
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
1yr ago
To be fair, it's not exactly a stellar screenshot lol
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
1yr ago
No, it shows PP with 4% odds, when he had 1% moments before, and the newspapers had all called the election against him.
This screenshot was sent in a group chat as we talked shit about the election, not saved to specifically document the timeline of odds.
You don't have to believe me if you don't want to.
You could even probably dig into the comment section of the market and find all the people saying "hold the line" if you were so inclined.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
1yr ago
Yeah I went and looked too and couldn't find it, I just remembered I have a screenshot.
It's the resolution of the graph, can't see it.
The Trump vs Kamala odds stayed irrational for a significant chunk of election day. A guy in my office worked out an arbitrage play between one of the sites and Kalshi that worked on the math. Unfortunately he couldn't execute because one of them required you to be a US citizen.
Trumps odds were also inflated vs the polling for a while, driven I think theoretically by a French millionaire (if I remember correctly) who was dumping large sums into Trump bets.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
1yr ago
Edited my comment to be more clear.
This was ~30 mins around midnight after the voting stations closed and after every major news organization had called the election against him.
Like the election was over, he had lost. His odds were <1% because every major newspaper had come out and said "we are calling it, Carney has won". But then the boys rallied and moved the needle for a bit.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
1yr ago
As so often, attack precedes defense.
I actually think drones have been a bigger win for Ukraine than Russia.
The longer a Russian attack takes and the further into Ukrainian lines they get, more and more drones get vectored onto their attacking troops. And it's hard to suppress them, so every Russian attack inevitably gets bogged down. They cannot for the life of them generate a breakthrough.
Otherwise, spot on analysis.
According to Polymarket Eric Adams has a slim but present chance of holding his seat.
While in general I think betting markets are a useful(ish) signal. They are ludicrously irrational when it comes to political odds.
I am not a gambler by nature, so I haven't dabbled, but both the Trump v Kamala and the recent Canadian Election had essentially free money bets available during the election hysteria.
At one point very briefly, Pierre Poilievre's odds of winning went from <1% to 5% for ~30 mins around midnight after the voting stations closed and after every major news organization had called the election against him. The reason? "Poilievre bros" were "rallying" and "holding the line against the lib-tards". They were literally throwing money away, I regretted not having an account in that moment.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
1yr ago
Truthfully, that was kind of a rhetorical question because I believe in and fully agree with everything you just said.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
1yr ago
I wrote this in a longer comment but to be clear I'm not saying ICE or splashy deportations are totally useless. Optics and messaging do matter.
My thesis is that they scale poorly, and the fact the government is prioritizing "high optics low scale" options and ignoring "lower optics high scale" options means they won't make a substantial dent in the 11-13 million illegals in your country.
And the fact they aren't simultaneously using all available options for maximum effectiveness means it's a safe bet they don't really want to fix this as much as they say they do.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
1yr ago
Sounds like a great way for them to get smoked in elections
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
1yr ago
I think "bring the hammer down on the companies" accomplishes this
If in 4 years, the Dems come back to power and open the immigration flood gates, but the jobs immigrants used to do are now done by Americans, people will lose their fucking minds over the direct connection between immigrants and job losses.
Right now this is more subtle because of you replace an illegal Mexican farm hand with an illegal Guatemalan farm hand, no one bats an eye. If you replace an American farm with with a Guatemalan farm hand, the American can go on fox news and tank the Democratic polling
I mean okay?
Any proposed policy or solution that requires massive (edit: and unpopular) social change to work isn't a very useful proposal, but it's a nice dream I guess
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