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Missing Petes - Where are the 30-something liberals?
This write-up was prompted by Zohran Mamdani’s rising popularity in the NYC mayoral race.
Pre-2016, American politics was run by boomers. As the youngest boomer, Obama was expected to pass the baton to the next generation of Democrats. Alas, geriatrics returned with a vengeance, and Gen-X tapped out for good.
Of the dominant American political groups, I'm most sympathetic to neo-libs with a YIMBY flavor. Therefore, I’ve kept an eye out for Millennial newcomers who fit into this mold. 'Left of center with accommodations for changing times' is a tried and tested formula for fresh Democrats. It started off great. Tulsi and Pete had respectable presidential runs for their age.
Then began the woke revolution and the COVID crisis. During this period, I expected radicals to be ascendant, and they were. Progressive Millennial faces were introduced through 'The Squad,' prison abolitionists, and protest movement leaders. All positioned in opposition to the neo-lib incumbents, all terrible policymakers. Thankfully, the progressives haven’t won anything at the national level just yet.
Their mortal enemies, the Boomer neo-libs (Kamala, Biden, Blinken, Pelosi), ran the nation for four years. Most of it was in a post-woke era where the nation was shifting to the right. Yet, we saw no new neo-lib faces during that time. At both the national and local levels, less-progressive democrats like Tulsi and Ann Davidson were pushed out despite their popularity, as proven by their rise in the Republican camp.
Train-man Pete is the obvious exception. But where are the other Petes? If boomer Democrats dislike AOC’s allies, why haven’t they groomed any young leaders of their own? Have boomers reinforced the stereotype by once more pulling up the ladder behind them?
I ask rhetorically, of course. The answer is yes. Boomers crushed the political prospects of an entire generation behind them. Millennials weren't going to have it any easier. The sheer greed of 80-year-old geriatrics is embarrassing. No policy goals left to pursue, just a legacy of corruption and unmet promises.
I dislike Zohran. Among my fellow Indians, he is what we call a 'chutiya' (hard to translate; the closest synonym would be wanker). Yet, I feel dirty saying anything positive about Cuomo. Do the two options have to be a corrupt neo-lib boomer versus a Millennial wanker? As the boomers die off, who will take their place in Democratic power structures? Because from my perspective, all the young leaders are socialist wankers.
So I ask again: Where are the other Petes?
According to Polymarket Eric adams has a slim but present chance of holding his seat.
True believer extremist progressives.
While in general I think betting markets are a useful(ish) signal. They are ludicrously irrational when it comes to political odds.
I am not a gambler by nature, so I haven't dabbled, but both the Trump v Kamala and the recent Canadian Election had essentially free money bets available during the election hysteria.
At one point very briefly, Pierre Poilievre's odds of winning went from <1% to 5% for ~30 mins around midnight after the voting stations closed and after every major news organization had called the election against him. The reason? "Poilievre bros" were "rallying" and "holding the line against the lib-tards". They were literally throwing money away, I regretted not having an account in that moment.
https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minster-of-canada/will-pierre-poilievre-be-the-next-canadian-prime-minister
I don't see it, but maybe that's due to the resolution of the graph. Either way the market was able to correct it in minutes because free money is a great motivator for smart people to take action.
Yeah I went and looked too and couldn't find it, I just remembered I have a screenshot.
https://imgur.com/a/oiQI0wg
It's the resolution of the graph, can't see it.
The Trump vs Kamala odds stayed irrational for a significant chunk of election day. A guy in my office worked out an arbitrage play between one of the sites and Kalshi that worked on the math. Unfortunately he couldn't execute because one of them required you to be a US citizen.
Trumps odds were also inflated vs the polling for a while, driven I think theoretically by a French millionaire (if I remember correctly) who was dumping large sums into Trump bets.
That screenshot doesn't show any spike from 1 to 5 around midnight. It does show a bump on election night which is also reflected in other markets. This kind of bump is very common, as the market updates based on early results such as exit polls and poll reporting, which can sometimes be in the opposite direction of the final outcome. That doesn't mean that such an update is wrong either, as the prediction is all about chances.There's no requirement for the odds to follow movements in the polls, if there are other factors with predictive value. Nate Silver's model also put Trump's odds above his polling numbers for quite a while as well.
No, it shows PP with 4% odds, when he had 1% moments before, and the newspapers had all called the election against him.
This screenshot was sent in a group chat as we talked shit about the election, not saved to specifically document the timeline of odds.
You don't have to believe me if you don't want to.
You could even probably dig into the comment section of the market and find all the people saying "hold the line" if you were so inclined.
Oops you're right. I'm blind
To be fair, it's not exactly a stellar screenshot lol
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