greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
User ID: 68
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
12hr ago
odds are it's not a big deal. It's not nearly as contagious of Covid.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
12hr ago
The school closures were useless because by then it was far too late, and even then it was already established the virus was not nearly as deadly as feared especially among young people. For the vast majority of people, Covid was like a bad cold.
if the Hantavirus can be confined to the ship, then a stronger case can be made for quarainte, with appropriate monetary compensation.
On Polymarket, a Hantavirus pandemic in 2026 trades at around 10%. This is obviously limited by the usual effects -- even if you believe that the probability is zero, 10% gain over seven months or so is not that great of a return of investment. It would be useful if there were pandemic bonds traded on the open market (so one could compare their prices to what they are usually), but from what I can tell there are none.
Out of money put options on index funds can also accomplish this. The problem is these tend to be cash incinerators 95-99% of the time. If you throw 1% of your net worth on these , you can make a nice profit if this is a repeat of Covid...a few people did this in early 2020. This is unlikely though, from Google "Hantavirus is generally not highly contagious between people and does not spread like common respiratory viruses such as COVID-19 or flu."
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
12hr ago
no, because I haven't looked into the case since then
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
12hr ago
I use him an example because, regardless of what you think of his politics, it's remarkable what he (and a handful of others ) has done over the past decade. With minimum promotion they created concepts and lingo ( e.g. cathedral, accelerationism, neo reaction) that have gained currency among the media, intelligentsia, and even the highest rungs of power, as well as implanting criticism of democracy as something to be taken seriously. Elon by comparison owns an entire social media platform hasn't really had nearly as much success implanting an idea or meme of similar popularity.
The fancy prose makes his ideas more memorable and taken more seriously by important people. Compare "free trade is bad for jobs" vs "great sucking sound." The latter is more memorable and memetic, and people continue to refer it after Perot's death.
If it were possible to increase Elon's verbal IQ by 1 sd at the cost of 1sd of wealth, he would probably be even more effective.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
16hr ago
But "Sam Wilkinson from Sticks" isn't an industry leader. I would argue , on net , the smartest people are less susceptible to bad opinions , even if everyone has bad opinions. Good opinions is downstream from high verbal IQ, which is the most "g loaded" of the IQ subtests.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
16hr ago
But in the examples cited they are trying but fall short. Their opinions are not well received despite their business success. Marc Andreessen tries to be contrarian, and it blow up in his face because he gets basic stuff wrong and cannot bring himself to conceding the point. David Brooks and Tyler Cowen for example have consistently well received opinions despite neither of them being on the left. It's not just a matter of political bias. Elon Musk has the biggest platform in the world. If he wanted to write a thoughtful argument, I am sure he would get much more praise if he could write it better than how he normally writes. Swapping Elon's wealth for Moldbug's erudition would produce much more successful opinions on Elon's end. Moldbug would not get basic facts wrong even if his opinions mare controversial.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
19hr ago
The S&P 500 is pretty conservative. In over 15 years, the biggest drawdown was 20%. Even >10yr treasury bonds have more downside .
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
19hr ago
Yes, it's worthwhile comparing to losing $ due to inflation
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
19hr ago
At the time I felt like this was a railroading of justice. The case progressed to so fast given the conflicting evidence. It's as if they wanted to make an example of him.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
1d ago
even then you end up missing out. research shows if you have any $ the optimal strategy is to go all in
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
2d ago
I guess I’m moderately bearish. Maybe a little sell in May correction. So I think I would wait for a 10% correction to deploy.
You could be waiting for years, at which point you will be buying back at a much higher price than had you bought now.
What do you think the chances are that we are currently in a large (AI related or not AI related) bubble that will pop? It seems like the money printing of the past few years has massive upward pressure on the stock market so I don't know how to unpick the two.
Between 0 and 1 probability. In other words, who knows. (I think it's not). But this is irrelevant , imho, because the market has gone up so much, and stands to keep going up even more, that even if it were a bubble and does pop, you may still be missing out by not buying now, as no one knows where the top may be. People who thought home prices were overheated in 2013-2014 or waited for lower prices after Covid, were either forced to rent forever, sit on sidelines forever , or buy at a much higher price. If the Nasdaq gains another 30% this year and 100% within 2 years, you would need a pretty big crash to undo just those gains, so we're talking a once in 15-50 year event. I do not like those odds. I would rather just hold my nose and buy, accepting that market is possibly overvalued, but also that I will not get a better price either. Overpay now or regret later.
It seems like I am outpacing the rate of inflation with my investments. For example I have doubled my money in 4 years, whereas I am not paying nearly 2 times as much for gas or groceries or restaurants compared with 2022. And it seems like inflation is much slower at the lower end of prices- for example goods at thrift stores or antique stores seem to be retaining low prices while things like houses and fine art are exploding in valuation. Do you think it's likely to stay this way in the US for a while or do you think the inflation will be coming for lower priced goods as well?
This is why the stock market is so great for wealth creation and inflation hedging, even compared to collectibles, cars, etc. Only MTG & Pokémon cards have outperformed the stock market long term. I am not sure about art--not much liquidity, lumpy markets and possible manipulation.
Do you think it's too late to buy bitcoin or is it still wise to buy it today? I have only like $2000 worth of bitcoin because I never found it very appealing or interesting but I can see its use in hedging against fiat currency debasement and many people smarter and richer than me are still interested in its success.
You're too late by 8 years. Stocks are clearly better.
Yeah it's a long shot, but if the AGI narrative is true, then I think it's possible. Imagine the S&P 500 goes up 20-30% in 3 months. I would be beating myself up for not buying those contracts for $100. I have already acted by putting $ in 5-month contracts and more in 900+ day SPY contracts in anticipation of either rapid or slower "takeoff". This is only 1% of my total account value, but the upside is 300x or more, so I see it as a positive EV. I can easily hedge out the 1% with selling index puts or bonds.
The rest of the $ is in the usual index fund mix, but then there is the lottery play of OTM calls when AI AGI FOMO takes over. If AI is once in a lifetime technology, we could see a once in a lifetime or ever rally.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
2d ago
This stock market rally has been insane. I think this is the greatest increase in a 1-month period ever, a 180 degree reversal of sentiment from panic 1.5 months ago over Iran to now euphoria even as oil prices remain high.
There is a possibility that the market pricing in AGi/takoff...in other words, this is really it. To invoke the meme, "it's happening". What will happen is the stock market will go vertical, something like 50-100% gains in a year for 3-5 years in anticipation of massive gains in productivity and earnings due to AI, which will be reflected in earnings reports later. So stocks will temporarily be wildly overvalued until the productivity wave hits.
One way to play this, which I am running now, is a two-pronged strategy: invest in something like a mix of leveraged S&P 500/nasdaq indexes funds (e.g. QLD, SSO) and then a small fraction out-of-money SPY call options.
So I may buy SPY call options that expire at $860 in 5 months at $100/contract. This is 17% out of money. If the S&P 500 continues its current trajectory for the next 5 months, this is a target of $1062 .This works out to a profit of $20,000 per contract. It's like a lottery ticket , but with much better odds. I think most people would agree, even AI skeptics, that AGI is much more probable than winning the lottery.
Many industry experts agree that there will be some AI phase or paradigm shift, if it hasn't already happened. If this means GDP and earnings forecasts have to be ratcheted upward for the next decade or longer, of course this will be reflected in stock prices. Even going from only 3% to 6% real GDP growth or 10% to 20% margins , when compounded over decades, implies a huge revaluation of stock prices that will be nearly instant.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
4d ago
I like the idea of working out; i fear the possibility of an injury and never having it recover and being in chronic pain
The whole thing went from total crisis mode to the virus being a lot less deadly than feared. So interest waned. Also, a deep investigation would implicate the very people doing the investigating ( governments, scientists, agencies, and leaders). I think there is too much stake to want to lay the blame anyone or any party. Let's assume China is at fault--are US leaders going to risk tanking the economy in retaliation? Probably not.
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