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greyenlightenment

investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

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joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC

blog https://greyenlightenment.com/

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greyenlightenment


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

				
				
				

				

					3 followers  

					follows 0 users  

					joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC
				


				
					

					
blog https://greyenlightenment.com/



				

				

				

				

				

					

					

					
					
					

					
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				Wellness Wednesday for October 28, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
yeah I am doing the same now more often. AI has gotten so much better now vs even as recently as 2025.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I have following  and writing about consumer technology since 2007 and near 100%  of these "so and so is a bubble" warnings/predictions never come true. When there is a correction it's because the entire market fell, like 2008 or 2020 in covid, not because the actual technology precipitated it. 2000 seems to be a big outlier in this case. It fit the textbook narrative: a bubble that brought down the market.  In the past examples, like railroads, other factors were absent: companies were smaller, and less aggressive fiscal and monetary policy. The fed and Congress will step in, like in 2008 or 2020.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
everything minus some  epsilon?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


They're largely obsessed with white people, but in the worst ways possible. They think white society is a hair's breadth away from putting them all in concentration camps. They all have white boyfriends, which presumably fill the same niche that orcs do in hentai, with their physical characteristics (especially their height) always being brought up.




in fairness this has a grain a truth. A U.S. president did something just like that


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Wellness Wednesday for October 28, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Reta is better


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
it's out of control . The war on drugs, which is   when this began,  morphed into a war on freedom.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Even for things I am competent at, i still  succumb to the laziness aspect. This is why even mathematicians are using AI for papers, like on arxiv. these are experts, but they still outsource.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I would argue economic and educational diversity are bigger factors than ethnic or racial diversity . America was pretty diverse even before the  wave of Hispanic and South-Asian immigration, but more cohesive; e.g. Chinese, African Americans,  Eastern Europeans, Germans, Irish, etc. Nowadays, you got people who have high incomes and pay a premium to isolate and afford premium services. 70+ years ago, wages were much lower in real terms accords the board. There was no such thing as the $300+ k/year white collar/UMC job.   Car culture part  of it it by creating literal  physical distances.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
that is the whole openclaw thing


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
but we're not talking laws here. we're taking citizens calling cops or police being called for things that do not fall under crimes. so everyone is now paranoid


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The problem is now  websites are blocking  agents' IPs, undoing the productivity gains.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Expectations have risen faster than outcomes- due more to TV than social media, because most of this predated social media.




IMHO it's not social media. If you follow random people on social media, the vast majority of people are not that successful. Most are actually struggling.  I think it's more like "we" occupy a certain bubble, but the  majority of Americas do not have nice tech jobs, high status careers, etc. Rich celebrities have always existed, but the category of "online micro-influencer" is a more insidious one because the barriers that Hollywood provides are gone. It seems more attainable and in your face.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Competition  is always better for the consumer though. Social media censorship make this clear. There are still no good alternatives to Meta.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
AI at this point does everything better. Everyone will use it to save time and outsource their thinking. The only thing it lacks is agency but even that may change.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


The youngest accidentally dropped a weight while working out, they called 911 to get him medical help, and the cops proceeded to arrest the mom upon arriving back home. For the children's safety, they have now been placed with the father who is facing domestic abuse charges and has a restraining order against him, a very safe place indeed.




This is pretty much ironically Republicans' fault. they gave police this discretion to do what they want without resistance and now it's basically biting them back by turning America into a micromanaged   nanny state. Same during covid too. In the '80s and such police did not get involved with everything.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Sorta off topic, but since we're on the topic of AI, a good heuristic I have found is that predictions of bubble/crisis/unsustainably tend to almost always be wrong. The 2000 dotcom bubble or 2008, where high valuations led to sudden corrections, are outliers. Space-X  is still above its IPO price of 135 despite fears of insiders selling and a bubble. I predict all three companies, Space-X, Open AI, and Anthropic will sustain $1-2 trillion valuations each without it collapsing. The media will be wrong as always, just as they were wrong about Amazon, Uber, Tesla, and many others. Those companies went from losing lots of money and being overvalued to being hugely profitable and much less  overvalued.


AI coding and math are the killer apps. The reason why these are trillion dollar companies is  by pivoting to coding. Every major company is using AI for  coding.




Why is there more stress and suffering now that would lead to the tripling of teenage suicides? Ask the random person on the street, they'll just point everywhere and tell you to look around and say: "everything is so hard now". I think what is so hard about life in the US, and I guess the modern age, is complexity




Better tracking plays a role too. Record keeping and classifying causes of death has gotten better now compared to  50-70 years ago. Also, more ways to commit suicide, like pills, which may not have existed in the 50s. I 100% agree things have gotten way harder (unless you're smart and talented enough to land one of those high paying tech jobs) , but I think it's a leap to say this has led to more suicides. Complexity is part of the problem, but also more competition. America produces a lot of smart, ambitious people vying for relatively few slots--be it good paying jobs or credentials. People must miss out.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
They take the time to write manifestos .  it's clearly premeditated . the average hooter in terms of IQ is not  dumb. covering their tracks would not be as hard as you're making it


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Qeekly Finance Thread - 2026-10-24
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
In terms of "median net worth by individual," it's not so bad. Outliers inflate the mean.


Median Net Worth by Age Group


• Under 35: $33,000


• 35 to 44: $135,000


• 45 to 54: $247,000


• 55 to 64: $365,000


• 65 to 74: $410,000


• 75 and older: $504,000


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Qeekly Finance Thread - 2026-10-24
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
divorce and kids can easily whittle  that to a 1-2 million


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Qeekly Finance Thread - 2026-10-24
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
"To be in the top 1% of American households by net worth, a household needs a minimum net worth of approximately $16,463,320. "


this is the most insane statistic ever. It's like , no this is more crazy than quantum mechanics.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Qeekly Finance Thread - 2026-10-24
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


I'm on the threshold of being a 1%er now.




It's amazing how those huge investment successes  still doesn't put you in the top 1%. It's like there is a lot of hidden wealth in the US.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Qeekly Finance Thread - 2026-10-24
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I would guess the vast majority of people do not earn enough , given thin liquidity, losses, and tiny trade size, to ever be at risk of an audit.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I mean the planning of a shooting takes a long time, but they otherwise appear the same to outsiders as the planning is going on, so it's a sudden escalation from going to work to going a school to kill people or attempting  to kill the president .This is why  intervention is so hard. You got huge false positives screening for loners. And potential shooters  may take steps to conceal their plans.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
For sure, Reddit and other social media censor candid discussions about this stuff


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
isn't this just behavioral psychology? But one thing that stands out is how the most inconsequential things generate the most fervent debate: the ballroom, cheesecake factory , renaming AI to SI , etc. These are tiny stakes but captivate the media, distracting from more impotent things. Culture wars tend to involve things which have low stakes but  are highly partisan in nature. I guess that is what separates it from actual war.