@greyenlightenment's banner p


investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

2 followers   follows 0 users  
joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC

blog https://greyenlightenment.com/

Verified Email


User ID: 68


investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

2 followers   follows 0 users   joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC







User ID: 68

Verified Email

The data is mixed. An n=1 overfeeding study showed Keto as the clear winner

another overfeeding study showed high carbs as the winner. what to make of this, who knows.

It has a strong scientific basis as well. The people who are most critical seem to have some sort of ideological objection.

Congrats on the progress. But AFIK it doesn't . the data shows no diet works particularly well . it may have worked well for you, but this does not not means it can be generalized as if it's a scientific truth/fact. Even if Keto is more effective for weight loss, the issue is also adherence. Someone can create a diet called the 'pond sludge diet' ..it's very effective for weight loss. just eat pond sludge, but the problem is no one can stick to that kind of diet. That is the problem with diet industry...humans are so unique individually that it's hard to create something which works for many people reliably. This is why GLP-1 drugs are such major a revolution in that they seem to work well on the general population. If overfeeding on keto leads to weight gain is debated still.

Most people aren’t smart enough to consistently get away with criminal behavior. This includes very smart people.

hmm as others alluded below, but you don't hear about the ones who get away unless they choose to confess

ever shoplifted in their lives, and if I found out they did I would lose respect for them and shame them for it. Because that's not the kind of person I want to hang out with, even if they were stealing from some soulless megacorp and there's no risk of them stealing from me. Ethical people who can reliably recognize each other and group together can create better. happier, more stable subcommunities by filtering, which creates a hard-to-measure cost to being unethical.

That seems a little harsh to cut off a friendship over that. yeah, rape, for sure, but that seems too harsh given how common it is . If someone stole from me personally after I told him or her to stop, then that would be another matter. Interesting point...goodness is its own reward. It does not need any justification beyond that.

it does apply but for him to be punished it would have to be proven that he intentioned to disrupt it. This is why chat logs and audio recordings are so useful, like in jan 6th, which shows premeditation and intent. the problem with seeking maximum punishment or even jail time is it it can come around later; your opponents can also hold you to this new standard, so it means everyone is made worse off in the long-run just to briefly take a moral high ground. This why he will not be punished severely. He may be compelled to resign. His defense that it was an accident, I am not buying it, and neither is the public. Who makes that sort of mistake.

Sorta a low-effort post, but this is the place. It would seem like there is no rational reason to be ethical, from a practical or game theoretic perspective. It's only disadvantageous if everyone or most people are unethical, but if only a few people are unethical they have a major advantage by not playing by the rules. Consider that unethical people can sometimes act with impunity for a long time before facing any consequences, assuming they ever do. Second, the victim(s) has to meet a very high burden of proof for someone who is unethical to be punished. This means gathering evidence, time to process evidence, etc. And finally, a lot of unethical people , having achieved success, then transition to becoming legit and covering up their history. The philosophical argument for being ethical fall short. yes, if everyone were unethical society would collapse, but there are enough people who are ethical that this does not happen.

The special sauce is the inflated appraisal value. this is done with real estate too or insurance fraud.

no, you are right. the 17-25 million is wrong.

Given his age, the only things he fears now is a long stint in jail . Trump has so far stayed above it all, whereas ppl close to him or who protested in jan 6th keep being jailed.

He valued Mar-a-Lago at 17-25 million. I texted a broker in the area and he told me 100 million for an ocean acre and 25 million for a non-ocean acres. Mar is between 17-20 acres depending where you look online. Palm Beach has gone up a lot since COVID so maybe divide those numbers by 2 since Trump made his filling. He listed the property at 450-650 million. Without doing a full underwriting (maybe zoning issues where it couldn’t be worth the raw land price) it still appears Mar is worth a lot of money.

this is obviously wrong. Zillow showed a 2.4 acre waterside Palm beach plot selling for $200 million.

If Democrats are so strong then why do they have some a lack of POTUS level candidates? I agree they control institutions but that always felt like the not elite people and the midtwits.

Who is in the White House now? Does it matter if they can produce the votes?

they nominate someone with serious Alzheimer questions without serious challenges makes me think I’m not making it up.

ppl used this argument in 2020 and it failed. The vast majority of voters don't care if the president is not mentally at 100%. For either Biden or Trump. Outside of a small subset of people on Twitter, average people do not care about the gerontocracy, or even welcome it. Rather than old people being seen as competition or incompetent, old people being in power gives hope to others that age is not a limiting factor to success, and that it's not too late.

Ted Cruz I think is cringe in his public persona and he’s quite far down the GOP bench but my guess is he’s more intelligent than anyone for the left. Same with Romney.

For the right at least, IQ does not win general elections .

there was a huge bounty on Bin Laden's head, $25 million, and it still took a decade and the military to find and kill him

Imainge a criminal mastermind like SBF who was worth billions hiring his own militia and private security. That would not be so hard for a billionaire. Criminals can hire militias too.

many on the right support Ukraine war . it's not nearly as polarizing as George Floyd and the like.

imho, I like shorter posts more. they leave more up for interpretation whereas effort posts tend to cover bases

Individuals would still have discretion to use firepower against criminals so i am not disagreeing with you there.

Could you please send me some of these super-determined LEOs with unlimited resources?

i mean FBI for larger scale crime. I thought that was obvious in my post. Let's assume a dozen criminals band together and buy firearms and target a single residence or business at a time, and then do this systematically. That is what happened in the early 1900s. Homeowners and business owners have jobs and families to deal with. they don't have the time, resources, or inclination to fight organized crimes.

Disagree with Kulak's position. crime would surge under his style of policing, especially organized crime. Criminals fear govt. enforcement far more than private enforcement and is a better deterrent. Governments have unlimited resources, including to detain criminals for a long time or forever, whereas bounty hunters and other private citizens are much more limited. Even if property owners have full discretion to use guns to defend themselves, criminals would still prefer this over more aggressive public policing. An armed citizen is not going to go to the end of the earth to capture a habitual criminal, but a government agency like the FBI which has unlimited resources will. Militias would not work agaisnt crimes in which the criminal goes after distant targets.

NFTs are like MTG cards ,yet the latter proved to be a way better investment. MTG cards have the advantage of utility (in the context of playing them) and scarcity, whereas NFTs have no utility even if there is scarcity in terms of the mint run.

Gates is legit smart. I am not sure why this is even debatable even if his politics suck

They may just be internet points, but it sucks being downvoted, here or elsewhere. Scott removed the option to vote on his blog ,and there is a good reason Facebook , Twitter and other social networks do not allow negative votes. Given the success of those sites, they probably know best about how to maximize engagement. People take this stuff personally because opinions are an extension of one's self, as they are conceived by a person. it's not just a rejection of the idea or opinion, but also the person who espoused it. i think that is how a lot of people see it.

So NFTs are a bubble that has finally burst, surprising nobody (or at least, nobody seems to be willing to admit publicly they believed the hype). They were the Tulip Mania of our day.

This was very obvious even without hindsight . Good thing i stayed away from this stuff. it's valuable for the same reason some artwork is valuable. a market forms in which supply and demand determines the price. the community collectively subscribes to the belief that these jpgs are worth something, and hence they are.

Twitter Blue currently has around 700,000 subscribers,

how is this obtained? being private, twitter does not have to disclose this.

At this rate, it would take over 500 years for Twitter Blue revenues to cover the $44 billion acquisition cost.

Elon can probably get X running a profit, but he will never make back his initial investment.

a valuation is a multiple of revenue . it's not like Elon needs to recoup the entire $44 billion with revenue. He can go public or resell it at some multiple ..maybe 30-50x or something if he can demonstrate rapid growth and profitability

I think this calls into question the power of the left. The left are assumed to be this big, monolithic organization than can bring down anyone or anything, but except for small targets like Jan 6th protestors, is limited. The Fed. government would love to be able to do something about Musk, but cannot do much . he is under fed. investigation but I don't think much will come of it https://techcrunch.com/2023/09/19/doj-investigates-elon-musk-perks-at-tesla/

He networked into some good situations and found the PayPal mafia. Not sure if that’s luck or skill. But certainly some path dependency.

it was not just luck and networking. he created Zip2 in 1995 and then x .com in 1999, which in 2000 merged with Confinity. Thiel was voted as CEO and Musk ousted (which is why there has always been a bitter rivalry between the two individuals) , and changed its name to PayPal in 2001. He had the skills and had built a reputation having already created two companies before getting involved with PayPal.

I think the “420” tweets heavily violated securities law.

It's not a matter of thinking they did. they actually did https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2018-219

Did anyone say that? I'm genuinely curious. Every discussion I've seen so far is just whether he is hella smart (99.99), very smart (99.9), or just smart (99).

The people who say Elon is as smart or smarter than a Field's medalist or a Putnam winner. I argued that the latter is smarter, which does not seem that unreasonable on my part. We're talking the best of the best of a very g-loaded task, that being pure math. Sure , Elon could be as smart, but if i was going to wager, my $ would be on the medalist, based on math being g-loaded , the rarity of skill involved, competition, etc.

How smart do you think Elon is, percentile wise. For all I know you are saying the same thing as everyone else, but just not stating your numbers so you are all talking past one another.

From what we know about him, probably 90% confident he is between 140-150.

Never coming back? He has twitter. It's not like the $40 billion was put in a furnace. and also, Twitter Blue generates considerable revenue by now. same for Twitter Gold. People will willingly use big tech companies like Google and Facebook even when they know such companies willingly share private info with governments. I hope Musk succeeds in turning twitter into the much needed competition big tech is lacking.

The bar for being most wanted by the FBI or put on a most wanted list is surprisingly low. There are many categories too