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greyenlightenment

investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

3 followers   follows 0 users  
joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC

blog https://greyenlightenment.com/


				
User ID: 68


				
				
				

			

		

	














	


		


			



	

		

			

			

				

					

						

							
						

						

							
							

								
greyenlightenment


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

				
				
				

				

					3 followers  

					follows 0 users  

					joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC
				


				
					

					
blog https://greyenlightenment.com/



				

				

				

					

					

					
					
					

					
User ID: 68


					
					
					
				

			




		

	

 











			
			

			
			

			




	


		

			
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	 Hot Top Bottom Old Controversial Comments
	



		

	






	

		
		

		
		
	

	

  







		

			
			
				Qeekly Finance Thread - 2026-11-07
			
		

	




	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It's not possible to make such a trade be profitable because betting on  volatility increasing has a carry cost.


But going to cash is probably the best bet, but there is no upside either.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	







		

			
			
				Site Backend Changes
			
		

	




	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Suggestion: make cast votes visible to OP before 24 hours. So I can see my vote score but others cannot, until 24 hours, and then everything visible. Votes are useful information. If a post is getting too many downvotes, it may mean I am wrong about something or I need to assess my priors.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	







		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 9, 2026
			
		

	




	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The new information is it increases the odds of him leaving. Indeed, the stock fell a lot in afterhours on the news.




I guess now we find out that he also compromised his own executive team? Who cares?




CEOs who deliver results and are not breaking the law should be allowed to do what they want, so no disagreement here. I think he doesn’t want to stay. He’s the opposite of Elon Musk: he’s not going to put up a fight here. He sees his legacy of turning Nvidia around from a gaming company to the leading semiconductor company. He can retire with that intact.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	







		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 9, 2026
			
		

	




	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
right, nuclear scientists were exempt in order to build the bomb. others were not.


Stalin was unusually pragmatic in this regard


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	







		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 9, 2026
			
		

	




	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
i will just echo  my comment 2 weeks ago about this https://www.themotte.org/post/4020/culture-war-roundup-for-the-week/491915?context=8#context


The consensus 6 months ago SPCX stock  would crash--6 months later is still at around 133--its IPO price. I predict the same for Anthropic. It will hold its valuation far better than people are expecting.




Employees will be looking to cash out after IPO lockups expire.




This is priced in mostly. When the lockup ends, people on the sidelines swoop in to buy the shares, negating the selling.


People are terrible at forecasting this sort of stuff


if i had to guess, the biggest risk is loss of pricing power due to competition. They do not have as strong of a moat as Meta , Google or Microsoft.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	







		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 9, 2026
			
		

	




	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Similar to how Stalin didn’t require the utmost fealty to the party from his smartest scientists, the US has always implicitly created exceptions for the most productive industries.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	







		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 9, 2026
			
		

	




	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Many white collar jobs are already invented. This includes both millions of public and private sector jobs. Since the end of the Second World War and the development through the 20th century of manufacturing automation and the emergence of computing hundreds of millions of jobs have been artificially invented by a combination of regulation and direct and indirect government spending in sectors like education, healthcare, finance, law, actual public employment working for government and non-government (but funded directly and indirectly by it) and quasi-government organizations, old age care and more.




They were invented to handle a wealthier, more complex, and litigious society. i don't see AI changing any of that.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	







		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 9, 2026
			
		

	




	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
more likely welfare will be expanded


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	







		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 9, 2026
			
		

	




	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
the loathed email job is never going away




UBI a la the "Freedom Dividend" idea from the ill-fated Yang campaign. VAT tax gets divided among everyone equally without means-testing.




This is probably among the least likely of the AI forecasts--even less so than the 20-30+ % unemployment  rate  figures touted by many people. It would be too expensive, for one.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	







		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 9, 2026
			
		

	




	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


White-collar labor becomes increasingly rare.




Disagree. If we see an AI boom, then this will lead to more jobs being created overall, if economic history is any precedent. A ton of white collar jobs involve dealing with the unique needs of clients ,  customers, or solving coordination, adversarial,  or edge cases--areas where AI is weak or doesn't work. When an insurance company denies a claim, they will anticipate  a notice from a lawyer. And it's war. This is not something Ai will just fix.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	







		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 9, 2026
			
		

	




	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
So the big story is  Jensen Huang had an affair with now a second woman




Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is facing a potential ouster by the company's board of directors following reports of a second extramarital affair with an internal executive, sending the chipmaker's stock plummeting over 8% in after-hours trading.




source: https://thehill.com/business/6214833-nvidia-ceo-jesen-huang-affair/


It’s like, what is wrong with this guy? I predict NVDA stock will recover, and this does not affect AI overall or the upcoming Anthropic listing. What began as a  personal matter has now consumed the news cycle, but does not affect much outside of Nvidia, IMHO.


This ties in with the ambiguities of morality. I predict Mr. Huang will recover. He will remain in good standing with the public and the media despite this. Yet had he been revealed as using a sock puppet for posting "badthink" online, well, this would be much worse in the eyes of the public. Indeed, Patrick Stewart had 2 affairs and it amounted to a footnote in media coverage of his passing. All he has to do is just lay low and he will recover, unlike, say, Louis C.K., whose career was destroyed (obviously consent is an issue here, too, and an affair presumes consent, whereas for #MeToo this was a murkier area).


The second part is about the smuggling and espionage aspect, where the implications, if true, would be much worse, an actual criminal offense, than merely a consenting couple having sex (albeit involving the CEO of the largest publicly traded company in the world), yet the lax reaction by Washington is weird.


It's being treated with the same seriousness as smoking pot behind McDonald's--technically a crime in some jurisdictions, but whatever. Espionage and smuggling were always considered grave offenses (e.g. in the context of the Cold War or Prohibition) and now they are secondary, inconsequential to the affair. Morality is weird...what people take offense to, how mores change (like anti-racism being much more important than faithfulness). I think  it's implicitly understood Nvidia is a huge success and central to the US tech boom. Actually doing something would have almost all downside.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	







		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	




	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I was saying to short bitcoin actually


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	







		

			
			
				Wellness Wednesday for October 28, 2026
			
		

	




	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
yeah I am doing the same now more often. AI has gotten so much better now vs even as recently as 2025.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	







		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	




	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I have following  and writing about consumer technology since 2007 and near 100%  of these "so and so is a bubble" warnings/predictions never come true. When there is a correction it's because the entire market fell, like 2008 or 2020 in covid, not because the actual technology precipitated it. 2000 seems to be a big outlier in this case. It fit the textbook narrative: a bubble that brought down the market.  In the past examples, like railroads, other factors were absent: companies were smaller, and less aggressive fiscal and monetary policy. The fed and Congress will step in, like in 2008 or 2020.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	







		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	




	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
everything minus some  epsilon?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	







		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	




	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


They're largely obsessed with white people, but in the worst ways possible. They think white society is a hair's breadth away from putting them all in concentration camps. They all have white boyfriends, which presumably fill the same niche that orcs do in hentai, with their physical characteristics (especially their height) always being brought up.




in fairness this has a grain a truth. A U.S. president did something just like that


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	







		

			
			
				Wellness Wednesday for October 28, 2026
			
		

	




	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Reta is better


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	







		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	




	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
it's out of control . The war on drugs, which is   when this began,  morphed into a war on freedom.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	







		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	




	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Even for things I am competent at, i still  succumb to the laziness aspect. This is why even mathematicians are using AI for papers, like on arxiv. these are experts, but they still outsource.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	







		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	




	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I would argue economic and educational diversity are bigger factors than ethnic or racial diversity . America was pretty diverse even before the  wave of Hispanic and South-Asian immigration, but more cohesive; e.g. Chinese, African Americans,  Eastern Europeans, Germans, Irish, etc. Nowadays, you got people who have high incomes and pay a premium to isolate and afford premium services. 70+ years ago, wages were much lower in real terms accords the board. There was no such thing as the $300+ k/year white collar/UMC job.   Car culture part  of it it by creating literal  physical distances.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	







		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	




	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
that is the whole openclaw thing


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	







		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	




	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
but we're not talking laws here. we're taking citizens calling cops or police being called for things that do not fall under crimes. so everyone is now paranoid


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	







		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	




	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The problem is now  websites are blocking  agents' IPs, undoing the productivity gains.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	







		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	




	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Expectations have risen faster than outcomes- due more to TV than social media, because most of this predated social media.




IMHO it's not social media. If you follow random people on social media, the vast majority of people are not that successful. Most are actually struggling.  I think it's more like "we" occupy a certain bubble, but the  majority of Americas do not have nice tech jobs, high status careers, etc. Rich celebrities have always existed, but the category of "online micro-influencer" is a more insidious one because the barriers that Hollywood provides are gone. It seems more attainable and in your face.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	







		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	




	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Competition  is always better for the consumer though. Social media censorship make this clear. There are still no good alternatives to Meta.