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greyenlightenment

investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

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joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC

blog https://greyenlightenment.com/

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greyenlightenment


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

				
				
				

				

					3 followers  

					follows 0 users  

					joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC
				


				
					

					
blog https://greyenlightenment.com/



				

				

				

				

				

					

					

					
					
					

					
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				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 25, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
yes it has that shitty Ghibbi style or whatever it is called. it's not even good animation


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 25, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The video is real , but what was the sequence of events that led to her brandishing  those weapons .It's not like people carry   axes when they go walking. were they just on the ground lying there or something.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 25, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


The obvious explanation is that the videos are being heavily promoted. But I don't know if this is the case. It's my understanding that YouTubers generally don't pay for promotions,




I saw it said "promoted" under the sidebar, indicating he's paying for views. The low comment to view ratio is what you would expect for a paid video. . Videos with  highly engaged fans will have really high ratios.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 25, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


I don’t think tariffs are a central Vance belief at all. If you oppose them it would be easier to lobby him personally in 2028 as presumptive Republican nominee than to convince people to oppose any Republican candidate on that basis.




It's possible he personally thinks they are a bad idea, but he has to signal protectionism,, as that is what is popular with voters and necessary to win the primaries. Trump has shown the winning playbook and I cannot see his successor deviating much from it, at least not during the campaign.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 25, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Trump frequently changes his mind though. We saw this with tariffs.




A person like Scott Lincicome of CATO truly believes that government taking equity of private enterprise is bad policy, and thus it's easy for him to critique it.






And you see with libertarian Republicans like Ron Paul, Justin Amash and Thomas Massie criticizing the Intel buy




The rise of Trump, who copied the same protectionism of Biden, on top of Obama, has basically revealed the libertarian-adjacent wing  of the GOP to be ineffectual. These people forever have been on the losing side, save for Ross Ulbricht pardon. Their publications and think tanks  are utterly ignored by anyone of importance. They are screaming into the wind. It has always been that way, but it's like what a  waste of money promoting all those libertarian causes. I think this shows that some flexibility is good, and Trump's  successes is illustrative of this. Otherwise you just become obsolete and end up wasting money and time.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Why does advice work so poorly?
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Competent teachers and coaches through talent and experience are able to identify these levels in their clients/students and will adjust advice accordingly




yeah there is a "you get what you pay for" rule in regard to advice quality


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 25, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
For the past 3 weeks I have been inundated with ads paid for by USAFacts, a non-profit  founded by Steve Balmer. In its own words, it's a "...not-for-profit, nonpartisan civic initiative making government data easy for all Americans to access and understand. We provide a data-driven portrait of the American population, US governments’ finances, and governments’ impact on society."


Some of these videos have a considerable number of views. The videos below have 10 million views each in less than a month, indicative of a large budget  and a major media push. YouTube ads targeting the US are not known for being cheap, given that it's a high-SES audience.  YouTube counts a view as someone who clicks the link and watches at least 10 seconds of the video, at a cost of roughly 10 cents a view. By my estimation, he has spent $2-4 million in promoting these videos, among others, in just a month alone. This is pocket change for him, but my question is, what does he hope to accomplish with this?


https://youtube.com/watch?v=JXKLoDXmZNo


https://youtube.com/watch?v=Bl1HRu18X0Y


Although it describes itself as non-partisan, this does not preclude some sort of agenda or motive by its founder.


The 2028 US presidential election is still years away. The content itself is not outwardly partisan and it's hard to shoehorn it into any specific agenda.  Perhaps he hopes viewers will  become better informed about trade, to dissuade them from voting for the presumptive GOP nominee, that being JD Vance, who supports tariffs? But the ads are broadcast everywhere, not just battleground states.  Or he's trying to cement a legacy as a lecturer and public intellectual , similar to Milton Friedman or Ray Dalio, who also have popular economics videos. Between this and Bill Gates' philanthropy, it shows that the ultra-wealthy tend to also be workaholics.  They are not content just retiring with their money. The last thing I would want to do is get all dressed up and read for hours scripts for many videos. Sounds really tedious and boring.


I don't think it will work though. The era of the 'TV public intellectual', as exemplified by Donahue and  Crossfire which pioneered the format, peaked in the 80s and 90s, before the internet.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Why does advice work so poorly?
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I sorta see what you mean. Personally, I have  learned give and take little advice. People generally do not want unsolicited advice. Good advice is typically very specific and by an expert ; for example , an academic advisor.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 25, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I always assumed that life-saving care must be rendered unconditionally, but that the insurance company can still refuse to cover certain elective procedures, in which the hospital  is under no obligation to perform them.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Why does advice work so poorly?
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Summary:


There is an extreme amount of intraindividual variability, yet advice tends to be one-size-fits-all. This is especially relevant for fitness and dieting advice.


Advice does not work as well in adversarial situations, in which both parties are applying the same advice.


Too many people applying the same advice dilutes it effectiveness.   This is seen in college admissions, where everyone follows the same essay-writing advice.


Survivorship bias may make some advice appear better than it actually is. Those who are successful at applying advice will tell others. The majority, who fail, will just go away.


Other advice is time sensitive or topical, and what worked in the past will not work now or in the future. 'Value investing' worked great for much of the 20th century, but became less effective in the 21st century.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 18, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
right, he still has tenure


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 18, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
He still has tenure. the funding can be terminated at will


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 18, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
But had he not signed the letter, would his funding not been cut? The stated justification by the trump administration has to do with UCLA failing to adequately police antisemitism on its campus, not wokeness.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 18, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
link to the letter https://newsroom.ucla.edu/stories/scientists-condemn-racist-violence  these cut have to do with UCLA's complicity in failing to denounce antisemitism, not the letter ? Had he not signed the letter, presumably his funding would have still been cut?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for June 15, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Why would someone who is being sued and appears to have some tangible assets choose a default judgment and not defend his or her self in court? This pertains to the Wes Watson situation. There is a thread about it: https://old.reddit.com/r/WesWatson/comments/1l39uoa/default_judgement_against_wes_watson_from_the_7/


It would seem completely irrational to not show up, especially as in the case of Mr. Watson , as he does appear to have attests that can be seized to fill the judgment. He can also be taken to court to testify under oath as to his financial situation and location of assets. I did some research on this , and typically there are exceptions (e.g. living expenses or homestead )  or the judge can set aside the judgment, but I don't think this would easily apply here. I also read a no-show would lessen the plaintiff's legal expenses, so this could lead to a smaller settlement if one does not expect to win.


Is it possible that he protected in his assets in such a way as to be judgment proof using a cool legal trick, or maybe he's actually as dumb IRL as he appears on youtube?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Why Bother?
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


And especially why bother continuing to argue when doing so is only likely to be """rewarded""" with mass-downvotes and distributed dogpiles by commentators on a forum you don't even really like, and only stick around on out of some sort of... IDK, perverse masochism, I guess?




The majority of people here are willing to engage in reasonably good faith with fairly deep arguments , which you typically will not find on Reddit, Twitter or elsewhere. There is an obvious a rightwing bias, as this site's userbase is primarily composed of members of the right-leaning, abandoned   themotte subreddit. Reddit's socialism or democratic subs may be more up your alley though; there are many to choose from, whereas Reddit by comparison has actively censored anything to the right of the mainstream, and is why this site was created.




Despite my faint hopes, the dysfunction in this country appears to be acclerating.




The thing is, both sides see the country spiraling down the drain or otherwise in decline, but in the opposite direction.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of June 2, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
When you read about Ross he failed on so many levels. Just the most basic opsec.  I guess it worked out in the end . Pardon + huge donation + stash. The vast majority of peopel in his situation  will not be pardoned.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of June 2, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It would seem that is a bad idea because now you've admitted to it after going through with the crime . It's like writing a confession letter and hoping nothing happens. The pure white hat way is to just disclose privately and hope you  get some remittance or there is a bounty program. most do


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of June 2, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Some of programs are surprisingly quite limited. Chat GPT cannot download videos off youtube for example. Or remove text from images. Some  random website can do it, but not 'state of the art' AI. Instead it shows a guide on how to do it with python . So basically it's like google, instead of actually automating said task.  It also runs into meager data usage limits when performing  computations , like trying to to solve  4x4 systems of equations (it will run into limitations when trying to solve more 4 of these matrices in 5-10 minute interval), and makes mistakes with other operations such as complex logarithms. Again, crappy websites can do this without limitations.  It excels at rewriting and text though. For a free program it's not bad, but does not   live up to the hype either. So I think it may not be the  economic gamechanger as some expect.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of June 2, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
what do you mean? by almost every metric life has gotten better the past century? GDP keep  chugging along too


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of June 2, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
If the feds determined the coins were procured illegally, any attempt at obfuscation becomes laundering ,even before it gets to the cash-out phase.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of June 2, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It seems like the cashing out part is where people get caught


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of June 2, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Yeah but you always run the risk of being captured anyway. See what happened to El Chapo. There are no safe countries from the reach of the US anymore except  perhaps North Korea.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of June 2, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I saw that. It's amazing how much MTG cards have appreciated over the past 25 years that the market can absorb such a large transaction. It's like an asset class in and of itself. someone should make a MTG card ETF or an ETF of MTG and Pokémon.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of June 2, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I saw an Nvidia presentation where Ai can be used to simulate an assembly line or an entire factory or warehouse, including even modeling the physics of the entire process of moving and assembling goods. Surely, there will some productivity gains from all of this.