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greyenlightenment

investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

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joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC

blog https://greyenlightenment.com/

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greyenlightenment


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

				
				
				

				

					2 followers  

					follows 0 users  

					joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC
				


				
					

					
blog https://greyenlightenment.com/



				

				

				

				

				

					

					

					
					
					

					
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				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 5, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It works..let's see


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 5, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Because we're not constricted by reddit's rules,  we can have as many stickies as we wish. I would like to see a heath & wellness one


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 5, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The media way underestimated trump's odds. It was never as low as 10%>. Even in 2020 we can see how the election became very close at one point during the night, until Biden's mysterious surge. The strength of the GOP, and especially Trump, has always been the swing states, compared to the left whose strength is in # number of votes and turnout.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 5, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


By contrast, a novel which captures the inner life of a mentally retarded person is elusive and largely unexplored. Writing a book is beyond the means of most mentally retarded people, and professional writers have trouble portraying characters who are so vastly different from themselves. Even the lives of ordinary people are largely unexplored, because ordinary people do not write novels, and professional writers have trouble writing ordinary characters. It is easier to create a clown or a buffoon than it is to write an accurate depiction of a person with slightly below average intelligence. Another reason why stories about ordinary people are unexplored is because audiences demand stories that are extraordinary. There is a realm of possible story ideas that do not get explored because they are boring to audie




The short story Flowers for Algernon shows it can be done. Underdog stories are popular probably because people want to believe they are true  and they identify  as the underdog. I find the obsession  with the downtrodden to be annoying but I guess that's what people want.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 5, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


DDoS-Guard dropped them without warning.




see, the free market means companies cannot collude /sarcasm


same pattern we have seen in the past . one censors and the rest follow.  alex jones another example


I think this is why it's so important to not get banned even if it means temporarily compromising. I posted yesterday that kiwi should have gone into hibernation mode  while migrating instead of keeping the site up. This way they would have not been officially banned by Cloudflare. Being banned is  the scarlet letter that makes it impossible to find alternatives. It was smart of TheMotte to begin migration b4 Reddit admins came down.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 5, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
PEDs should be allowed or even encouraged for  infantry.  If there is any application in which increased physical performance is desired, it's combat. That's how it was in the 40s when America  needed to mobilize hundreds of thousands  of young people in months, They took amphetamines to improve endurance and morale,  https://allthatsinteresting.com/amphetamine-use-world-war-2


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 5, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Americans are obsessed with pharmaceutical intervention to make their lives easier.




Probably because they work.  People have this notion that millennia ago people lives long heathy lives without modernity. I think this Romanized view ignores that people live  and died of chronic pain and other conditions that today can be treated. Urinary tract infections and such.




But if I wanted EPO simply because I think it would be neat to ride my bike up hills faster?




agree but for drug tested competitions obviously it seems unfair taking drugs. I otherwise see no problem if athletes want to take drugs..their choice. But then you have to deal with the issue of externalities. If some of these people are getting sick and need healthcare for PED complications or develop chronic conditions later in life from use, this imposes a public cost.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 5, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I remember this was discussed a few weeks ago on the reddit sub. I think some of this is attributable to America's police being more effective, better trained, better armed. The Italian police don't strike me as being that good at their jobs or intimidating compared to big, burly American cops  with guns with   those mushrooming bullets. Also, longer sentences, harsher recidivism laws means  fewer criminals that would otherwise be on the streets, hence fewer police needed relative to population. Of course, there is the counterargument that Nordic countries have had success with less strict policing and more lenient sentencing, but this overlooks major differences such as demographics, unreported crime or differences in reporting crime, and population size.  Regarding certainty of punishment vs. severity, I think the US strikes the optimal balance. I think high severity is better. Why do so many people get cancer screenings when the certainty is low, because cancer is so deadly.  Criminals make a similar rationalization.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 5, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
a lot of these seem like drug related crimes, blame politicians for that.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 5, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I have little reason to believe the US is worse at solving murders or has a worse clearance rate compared to other countries. I think there are major factors at play here    https://www.criminallegalnews.org/news/2018/feb/16/us-murder-clearance-rates-among-lowest-world/


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 5, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


The reason that I make this post is somewhat of a follow up to [12], and to indicate that the reasons I believe social media is a pretty awful technology, and the reason I support greater censorship isn't solely a matter of politics. It's a matter of homeless people [13] [14] investing in a bankrupt movie theatre stock, because influencers who run Onlyfans accounts and monetize their Youtbe channels make money by being "leaders" of a "movement". Because people are convinced that this bankrupt movie theatre stock is their ticket [15] out of the middle class. Because [16] this is how to get back at the man - how to get revenge for 2008.




It has to do  with so-called lottery system of success. Most of these people are not that smart IQ-wise, so a comfy white collar job is out of the question. Speculation and other hustles such as crypto, youtube, or meme stocks is the only ticket to getting rich. Unfortunately for them and not surprisingly, the expected value is negative, so most lose. Crypto crashed 70% this year..AMC crashed..NFTs crashed..see a pattern.  The boring old college + white collar job + index funds +home ownership route has a much higher expected value and much smoother returns, but you need to be smart to succeed at this...you need the credentials and skills to land a good job and then a good income to buy a home, which these crypto and AMC people often lack.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 5, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
shorting carries unlimited loss. this is  a risk that is on every prospectus. Melvin's mistake was poor risk management, they were victims of not protecting their possible downside..


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 5, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
No, because  gambling losses are not socialized. liberal arts degrees are more socialized. A case can be made that bad food should be banned because it imposes an externality in the form of higher healthcare costs


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 5, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
violent crime is just one subset of crime. the impulsive guy who kills a family member or drug dealer out of rage is different from a career criminal. I think the latter may be worse because it causes more widespread economic harm over longer period. The long sentences and harsh recidivism laws are to deter the non-impulsive, non violent criminals.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 5, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
By police, I don't mean investigators. homicides are not  solved by police, at least not in America.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 5, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
GME was being led/controlled by hedge funds the entire way up and down. I think people vastly overestimate reddit's influence. The average speculator on Reddit probably has just thousands of dollars, maybe $2-10k, but we're talking many billions of dollars of daily option volume and tens of billions of dollars of trading volume. Only hedge funds can move those kind of numbers.  On that Friday I recall GME momentarily still went up despite the robinhood trading freeze , which proves hedge funds were doing the buying (it was not  reddit folks with the robinhood accounts).


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 5, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
They could have bought puts , that way the max losses are capped. their risk management was shit to allow this to happen. Naked shorts are   risky even if the allocations are small, precisely for this reason. See 2008 Volkswagen squeeze.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 5, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
about $130 billion of that is stable coins or new additions. Also, one must take into account the huge decline from 2018-2020, which is why BTC is unchanged since late 2017,  and why BTC lags index funds  (SPY, DIA, QQQ) on many timeframes as far back as 2017.  BTC is only at 19k, a 90% gains from oct 2020, which is nowhere close to 3x.




Housing did not go up 3x in the last few years




Housing is bought using leverage using a mortgage, usually 10-30 years. Its not like most homeowners are buying  a home 100% cash down. The returns for housing is much more smooth, making it ideal for leverage.


Finally, if you look at price weighted volume, much of the buying was after and during price surged in early 2021, so most of these people are looking at a loss. Anyone who bought BTC after late 2020 and didn't sell is looking at a loss, which is probably a lot of people.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 5, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
maybe disallow people who habitually engage in poor eating habits  from using public healthcare services.. deny public healthcare to alcoholics and smokers is a starting point.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 5, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


The peaceful stupidity - It is said that some of the greatest inventions in the history of mankind come during times of war. Where the nation is put at risk and all resources are put into maximizing upgrades to ones technology or any capacity to beat the enemy. It was war that boosted the process of splitting the atom. It was the pressure of war that sent satellites into space. It was war that sent men to the moon long before they had any right to be there. That is not to say that there is no creation during a time of peace. Many things are invented during times of peace. Yet in the previous lines there is a symbolism which we see once again in the fact that in the most developed societies of the west we have now begun to see people get dumber over time. A society wide fall in overall IQ. A warning of the possibility of bad days ahead. Even a possible sign that we in the past century went way past the point of our natural capabilities and now find ourselves in a world that none of us understand.




I don't see much evidence that things are dumber per say. Math, medicine (certain cancers are now curable), physics (like James Webb telescope) , computer sci, AI (like Stable Diffusion, machine learning), etc. is making a lot of progress; the caliber of research today is greater than in the past; papers are longer, more complex....today's child prodigies are starting college at earlier and earlier ages, much like how the mile times and weightlifting records also keep being beaten despite a lot of Americans seemingly being obese and out of shape. Math research much more complicated, kids taking calculus at earlier age. YouTube guys routinely  lifting weight that 50-60 years ago would have set records. I think rather there is a greater  bifurcation between the smart and the dull, the fit & strong vs the fat or weak...High school seems dumbed down because it's designed to accommodate a lot of dull kids (blame demographics).


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
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I think this will lead to most people just downvoting it twice without much consideration as to the nuance between disagreement and well-argued disagreement. Well-argued but unpopular opinions can still do well here, so it's not like group-think is necessarily a problem that needs a new voting system.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 5, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Yet this is not a fruitful scorn. The beginning of wisdom it is said it to forgive one's father. And the hate you see lobbed at boomers for their egoism, real or imagined, doesn't help us in any way.




I think blaming boomers, or any generation , is counterproductive, but people hate the boomers not because of ego but rather they are perceived as being out of touch. They, the boomers, don't understand or are not empathetic to how the younger generations 'have it harder' (even though I think this is debatable). True, homes were much cheaper 50 years ago, but so  mortgage rates were way higher and I don't think 20-30 year mortgages existed. Jobs didn't pay that well even adjusted for inflation. The 6-figure white collar job didn't really exist in the 70s like it does today. Or the 7-8 figure 'exit'. YouTube, blogs, podcasting, apps and other ways of making money also didn't exist. It was better for highly conscientiousness people that Jordan Peterson talks about, who can put in long hours at a low-skilled factory job.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 5, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


I think you're confusing the cart and the horse. Rising obesity is not a problem in of itself. It's a visible symptom of technology outrunning the self-control, prudentia, and conscientiousness of the population — or of technology hurting those, directly. People looking like orbs out of WALL-E doesn't prevent an advanced technological society. It only causes retired pensioners with obsolete skillsets to die earlier.




Obesity is an interesting subject. I think a distinction needs to be made between childhood/teen obesity and adult obesity. People tend to gain weight as  they get older, at around 1-2 pound /year, up until around 60. I think looking at childhood/teen obesity gives a more accurate perspective of the situation. Childhood obesity is particularly bad because the complications later in life are perhaps worse.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 5, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Understanding of stats or  HBD is irrelevant. The strongest opponents of HBD tend to be people with above average abilities, at least from what I have observed.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 5, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


On the right you'll hear complaints about the sexual revolution, May 68, and ruining marriage and morality in general over short term bliss as well as handing a whole bunch of power to the state.




I think people tend to overstate how old the boomers are. They are people in their early 60s to 70s. So even as recently as 1990 boomers were finally entering politics and busines in stride. True, boomers grew up in the 60s but they didn't influence policy, nor did they have much influence in the 70s either. The blame instead is mostly on the silent generation.




Boomers may not have had six figure jobs that often but they had cheap houses, job security and a whole lot of actually valuable things that you can't get easily today even with a whole bunch of paper




If you include compensation the picture improves  a lot https://ritholtz.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/hcc-.png


Adjusted for inflation, today's college  grads still earn more.  https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d07/tables/dt07_381.asp


An MBA in 1976 made $10,200 ($52k in today's dollars) compared to $96-130k today.  Even with student loan debt, this is way more.