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greyenlightenment

investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

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joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC

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greyenlightenment


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

				
				
				

				

					2 followers  

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					joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC
				


				
					

					
blog https://greyenlightenment.com/



				

				

				

				

				

					

					

					
					
					

					
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	 Hot Bump Top Bottom New Controversial Comments
	



		

	






	

		
		

		
		
	

	

  







		

			
			
				On Courage and Adversity in Modern Life
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
So the question becomes - how do we set up a society in which people can routinely take small risks or deal with small amounts of adversity, and learn to become more agentic in steps as they grow?


By making it easier for people to find work. Too many people are risk averse because of the difficulty of acquiring the necessary credentials and expertise to find a good job that will provide the necessary funds for  risk-taking down the road.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 8, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I have long believed  it makes no difference if what you say is right or wrong,  but who says it. I think this is why so many people tolerate Eliezer's AI-doom argument even though it's unscientific, because he's so smart (or at least comes off as being so smart) that people will give him a lot of benefit of the doubt.




Russ didn't really give strong arguments, and the rest of the interview repeated this pattern a couple times




Russ Roberts interviews have always been underwhelming. I  to listened to a few...just doesn't do it for me.  He cannot give strong arguments because his scientific background is weak and his personality is not forcefull.




if you want to convince people who are not already steeped in your philosophy you need to have a short explanation of your thesis that you can rattle off in about 5 minutes that doesn't use any jargon the median congresscritter doesn't already know.




Unpopular take: The whole thing is a grift. The goal is not to convince anyone of anything but to donate to his foundation/non-profit. He wants someone with deep pockets like Vitalik Buterin, Elon Musk, Theil to donate. I don't think he believes the things he espouses.




AIs will kill us all, you should be able to give a tight, logical-ish argument that gets the conversation going in a way that an audience can find interesting




EY can give a tight argument, but it's lacking the necessary specifics. If someone wanted to puncture his argument they would just press for details, or accuse him of making an unfalsifiable claim. EY is shifting the burden if proof to everyone else to prove he is wrong.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 1, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/12/us/jordan-neely-daniel-penny-new-york-subway-death-charge/index.html


Daniel Penny, a 24-year old Marine, turned himself to police after being charged with 2nd degree manslaughter for the killing of Jordan Neely. It looks like I was initially wrong. I said that drugs may have played a role given that the original NYTs story, which I replied to, from a week ago said that Neely had been choked for only 50 seconds and released and was unresponsive. The updated story is that he was choked out for much longer,  as long as 15 minutes, which would have def. been lethal, and the video is pretty bad.


So retract my original argument in which I posit drugs played a role.  This is why you should always wait until you have all the information before forming an opinion. I think Penny is not without some guilt here. Keeping someone in a choke for so long is going to  end in death. It's likely Neely was not rendered unconscious  near-instantly  from blood loss to brain, such as from a sleeper hold as I originally assumed from the original story (I assumed Penny put Neely in a hold, and then Neely went limp in 20-30 seconds and did not come back), but  far worse, had been suffocated to death, like being held underwater because his windpipe was restricted.  That's why he was flailing around. It would have been more humane had Penny just shot him although that would have carried a worse charge.


A second degree manslaughter conviction is not that bad. only max 15 years for killing someone, and with parole Penny may only spend 5 years, which is a pretty lenient sentence for killing a guy, and not even in self defense or accident. By comparison, Ross Ulbricht faces multiple life sentences despite not killing anyone.    I cannot say Penny is not without some blame in this matter.  But In Penny's defense, the police took too long to come, and despite Marine training he and his accomplices didn't know what else to do.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 8, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/12/us/jordan-neely-daniel-penny-new-york-subway-death-charge/index.html


Daniel Penny, a 24-year old Marine, turned himself to police after being charged with 2nd degree manslaughter for the killing of Jordan Neely. It looks like I was initially wrong. I said that drugs may have played a role given that the original NYTs story, which I replied to, from a week ago said that Neely had been choked for only 2-3 minutes and released and was unresponsive. The updated story is that he was choked out for much longer,  as long as 15 minutes, which would have def. been lethal, and the video is pretty bad.


So retract my original argument in which I posit drugs played a role.  This is why you should always wait until you have all the information before forming an opinion. I didn't think the story would blow up like it did. I just assumed it was some random altercation. The video is why it went so viral. I think Penny is not without some guilt here. Keeping someone in a choke for so long is going to  end in death. It's likely Neely was not rendered unconscious  near-instantly  from blood loss to the brain, such as from a sleeper hold as I assumed from the original story (I assumed Penny put Neely in a hold, and then Neely went limp in 20-30 seconds and did not come back), but  far worse, had been suffocated to death, like being held underwater because his windpipe was restricted.  That's why he was flailing around. It would have been more humane had Penny just shot him although that would have carried a worse charge.


A second degree manslaughter conviction is not that bad. only max 15 years for killing someone, and with parole Penny may only spend 5 years, which is a pretty lenient sentence for killing a guy, and not even in self defense or accident. By comparison, Ross Ulbricht faces multiple life sentences despite not killing anyone.    I cannot say Penny is not without some blame in this matter.  But In Penny's defense, the police took too long to come, and despite Marine training he and his accomplices didn't know what else to do.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 8, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
the push for de-institutionalization  is partly to blame. In the past maybe he would have been committed. It's easy to find solutions to deal with overtly violent or mentally ill people, but those who are a nuisance and only occasionally act or threaten violence, but without breaking laws or physically harassing people, are harder to deal with.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 8, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Only 15 years and a normal-life-ending felony record, for restraining a violent drug-addled mentally-ill person who the government refused to do anything about.




There are mentally ill people when I go down the street. some of them yell at pedestrians.  I would love if someone could do something about it, but that's not the job of citizens even if he is a major burden on society and net-negative value.  I cannot just go up to one of those guys and choke him out,  not that I could or would choose to take that risk.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 8, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
that is a good point. Subways are a hotbed of culture war, . You got many people of diverse backgrounds confined to this small metal tube, same for airplanes. Most passengers are behaved; it only takes one to fuck things up for   everyone.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 8, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
this is why defund the police is so stupid, even if you believe in social justice. Because vigilantism is possibly worse . the police are trained at dealing with these sorts of rowdy passengers.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 8, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
good point. the question  is, how long should you wait; how much info is ideal?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 8, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
that's what I was thinking too. I assume 'restraining someone safely' would be covered in basic training , especially when the assailant is not armed and does not seem particularly strong


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 8, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Peter Thiel in 2016-2017 had the ear of Trump. Too bad nothing came of it.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Wellness Wednesday for May 10, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


autism and subpar physical appearance, but I've realized




This is of course subjective. How did you come to this realization? People online who post pictures tend to be in the top quartile.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 8, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


I’m surprised no-one mentioned the way this incident has been covered on the /r/NYC subreddit. Given that it’s a deep blue city and Reddit is a deep blue site, you’d think everyone would be up in arms about Neely’s death. But the dominant mood is dramatically more pro-Penny than here, for heaven’s sake. Multiple posters saying that he did what needed to be done, people have a right not to be hassled by psychopaths on their commute, even some highly upvoted comments calling out progressivism by name as the ideology that created this problem. I’m utterly bemused and perplexed. Am I missing something?




I have observed that city-specific subs tend to be more right-leaning compared to the broader subs and reddit overall. Probably some self-selection going on. NYC has woke types, but also Bloomberg-type neoliberals who are still considered 'blue'.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 8, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


How and when did the Ashkenazim come to be?




Post ww2, America became the unofficial homeland for Jews, after Israel. That is where they thrived and became such dominant force, thanks to meritocracies,  where Jews really thrive. It was not going to be anywhere else. Great Britain had its entrenched  monarchy and parliament. Other countries were too small or  too homogenous. America, by being so meritocratic, powerful, and accommodating of diversity, was perfect.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Wellness Wednesday for May 10, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I loled at your choice of words


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 8, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It's not without precedent. According to Wiki,  "A law in place until the 1850s stated that no member of the Jewish religion could be elected to Parliament. Some Christian denominations were similarly prohibited. If elected, a member would be excluded if he refused to swear an oath of abjuration with a strong Christian wording."


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for May 14, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Anyone else notice they are they getting downvote more often on the 'orange site' (for those who use it) or reddit or are getting much more negative pushback than usual? Or antagonism? I have at least. I am not referring to here. I think a lot of people are having a bad time, are struggling, and this is manifested in the form of increased anger online. It cannot be blamed on Covid anymore, as that was years ago, but it seems worse now than shortly after and during the pandemic.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Friday Fun Thread for May 12, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


This will probably get buried but it's outrageous that you can be bankrupted by medical debt if you get sick in the US! In Europe this doesn't happen.




I run a cancer forum on reddit https://old.reddit.com/r/coloncancer In the  6+ years moderating the community, I have encountered exactly zero Americans being bankrupted or made destitute due to medical debt, or being denied treatments or long delays owing to unaffordability. Everyone gets good, timely, high-quality treatments regardless of socioeconomic status, including costly surgeries and the latest chemo even if there is low likelihood of the procedures working. High medical bills are either negotiated lower, covered by various insurance programs (like Medicaid), covered by charity care, etc. Medical debt can be easily discharged, unlike other types of debt.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for May 14, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Charles Atlas's physique




i think he stood 5'10 and 185 lbs at 15% bodyfat/ that is doable


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Friday Fun Thread for May 12, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Good points, you try to bring these up anywhere else like reddit  or hacker news and get downvoted to oblivion.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Friday Fun Thread for May 12, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
From what I have read, Canadians who have above average risk factors, such as family history, seem to have the hardest time getting timely colonoscopies, which would detect the cancer sooner.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 15, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Turkish Presidential




As usual, any news from turkey is bad news, whether it's earthquakes, NATO, Syria, Kurds, political unrest, bad election results, and so on . It's currency keeps falling against the dollar, it stock market keeps falling too. Same as from 2013-2021. Same shit as always.


It goes to show how whatever problems the US has, are worse elsewhere. America's political problems does not cause its stock market to fall or currency to crash, unlike in Tukey , Brazil, or elsewhere. It's like this with most countries...nothing but bad news that makes America's problems seem quaint by comparison.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 15, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


This obviously has huge implications for inequality. Too reduce inequality, we have to reduce the rewards that high-income people get for their labor. But this will cause a large reduction in the hours worked by high skilled people and will cause a much larger decrease in GDP than the reduction in hours. By tolerating inequality, we can have a much higher level of economic output, and thus more money to be spent on social welfare programs. The costs to reduce inequality are very high indeed.




Or bigger families, more kids, etc. The robber baron fortunes dissolved so fast, in a few generations, because it was diluted rapidly due to large families, lavish personal spending,  and philanthropic projects. Rich people, elites having fewer kids and delaying family formation probably contributes to rising inequality. Jeff Bezos' divorce for example cut his net worth a lot.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for May 14, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
NYC subways get huge traffic, so I imagine police do not prioritize attending to fights unless it involves guns


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 15, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Both of factors basically disappeared since in most of the world. Few countries have experienced significant consistent economic growth in the last decade (China, US and Israel as exceptions), let alone productivity growth. Also neo-liberal borderless capitalism and almost limitless human liberty through internet does not function as the great ideology of the age as it used to anymore. The economic crash killed the belief in the first and the Arab Spring in the second.




Yup. Ex-US market have lagged big time since since 2010, such as in terms of stock market gains, GDP, innovation, etc. See no reason for this to improve.  2002-2010 was an outlier that will likely not be repeated. It does also  call into doubt the Keynesian assumption that you can print your way to prosperity; except for the US, this has failed.