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greyenlightenment

investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

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User ID: 68

greyenlightenment

investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

3 followers   follows 0 users   joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC

					
				

				

				

				

				

					

User ID: 68

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And I think that’s actually why the elites running the systems cannot fix things.

Fix what? Elites developed the policy that solved the 2008 mortgage crisis as the rest of the world struggled. The zero-interest rate policy and QE has since been copied by other central banks. It was not elites who were buying those mc mansions with 0-money down. Same for Covid vaccines.

Elon Musk is technically is an elite and has contributed greatly to society. Society is not going to solve difficult problems like space travel using only ordinary people. Difficult coordination problems require elites. Sometimes the public isn't always owed an explanation or it would be against the interests of national security, like the Manhattan Project.

Why is modern architecture so bad, and so common?

This is more like one person's opinion than a matter of fact

the WTC facade, composed of tridents situated above the square aqueduct-like arches of the foyer, was an example of visually pleasing modern architecture. it does not always have to be bad.

Ouch. 4-pleb detected. The cool kids are over here getting a dozen 5s each and couldn't imagine getting a 4.

is this supposed to be a diss. Maybe I can send some passages of the math paper I am working on, and you can proofread them, as you've obviously way smarter. You must be so successful at life with that attitude.

If disparate impact is actually ended, expect every Walmart level job to have the equivalent of an IQ test.

This what the Wonderlic accomplishes (along with interview, which also is a screening mechanism), and according to people on reddit, it's very common and many companies use it. AFIK, the Wonderlic or any company that has used it has never been successfully sued for disparate impact on the grounds off the test itself. https://old.reddit.com/r/legaladvice/comments/x5qv4v/an_employer_gave_me_a_wonderlic_test_is_this/

What makes the Wonderlic particularly useful is it's not only very quick and cheap to proctor (no psychologist, unlike a full-scale IQ test), but it screens for both competence, like reading and math, and also functions as an IQ screen/filter on the high-end, due to rarity of top scores, which map to a bell curve and highly correlated with full-scale IQ.

Wonderlic is the test that literally lost Griggs.

The outcome is more nuanced. https://home.ubalt.edu/tmitch/645/articles/Cognitive%20AbilityTesting%20EF%20wonderlic.pdf

While the Griggs case is often mistakenly cited to call into question the lawfulness of cognitive ability testing, in reality the ruling on this case recognizes that these tests, as well as educational requirements and other hiring tools (e.g., criminal background checks, credit checks, experience requirements, physical requirements), are appropriate for assessing job applicants as long as certain criteria are met

My broader point being: The tests are widespread, as shown on reddit. Wonderlic and employers work together to ensure the tests are compliant and used appropriately, hence and there are a paucity of lawsuits, let alone successful ones, indicating it has been a success. I support unconditional use of tests for hiring, but it's wrong to say such testing does not exist or that a full-scale IQ test would be better, when the Wonderlic is by many measures better and already does that.

I think it's too soon to tell. The market came roaring back and Trump hasn't even done anything, nor any progress from China -US relations. As soon as the stock market goes back up, he will go quiet. he hadn't complained about tariffs until recently, for this reason. It's not so much the tariffs they they dislike, but the market's reaction to it. To wit, excluding April, his last tweet that mentioned tariffs was on November 25th, 2024: https://x.com/BillAckman/status/1861198845574815947

Regarding the economic implications, Ackman and others are justified in complaining. These tariffs are unprecedented in size and scope. It's like "we want trade reform, not a return to the early 20th century"

People getting way poorer from stocks crashing than from tariffs, which aren't even going to be that bad in terms of projected increase in inflation (2-3% overall). Whole thing feels like a huge overreaction. Stock valuations are based on multiples, so a small loss of profits can mean a large decrease in share price.

An alternative is of course having your groceries delivered, which is still far cheaper than owning a car.

Not always. in the long-run a car is cheaper. You pay a huge premium for delivery.

I also don't care for that lifestyle, but "engaging in risky behavior argument" as justification to deny care can be used for almost everything. Car accident while going too fast and not wearing a seatbelt? Snowboarding? Downhill skiing? Smoking? Football in high school? etcetera .

consider the possibility that an opinion doesn't have to apply to everyone or all circumstances

Meanwhile, I'm just trying to prepare myself for how much worse things are going to get under the inevitable eight years of Harris.

Political division will increase, as will the intensification of the news cycle, but stocks and the economy should do fine. The wealth tax she floated during early campaigning, predictably, she has discarded in favor of middle-class tax cuts. I don't think it will be as bad as feared in regard to the economy. Also, 'peak woke' was under Biden, whereas wokeness got much worse under Trump. Elon Musk is single handedly doing more to fight wokeness than even any politician now.

The dems offer a lot: student loan forgiveness, healthcare reform, housing reform, etc. It's just the handouts are not as effective at winning votes.

What's interesting about Trump is that he can't turn this off either. He can't code switch between the two different ways of communicating, and it continually suprises him when he is misinterpreted.

I'm sure he's more articulate in business or private. also he's probably not as sharp as he was , so he's more forgetful and like Biden has trouble finding the right word or names. Being misinterpreted easily is not always a bad thing as a public figure when communicating to the public. It makes it harder to attacks to stick. With trump you never know if he's being serious or hyperbole, so it keeps everyone guessing. To his supporters, they decode his language. To everyone else they are either offended or confused, which was the point.

This was an example of an unforced error, albeit a tiny one in the grand schemes of things. It makes me wonder why anyone would book a comedian at all. Politics is very much scripted; comedians by trade are not.

It is often, which was my point which you missed. I support the unconditional use of IQ tests for hiring/promotion, but it's wrong to say that testing is uncommon or that Griggs is preventing companies from using screening.

no executive order for btc reserve (yet), which was way hyped-up and his donors expected.

After Jan. 6th and other incidents, no one taking any chances.

because he's not white. looking good on video typically requires fully European phenotype , although blacks pull it off too. Jews look the worst. that is what I have observed at least. whites tend to have a more angular or square face and solid lower jaw which looks better on video. But jews make up for it by being articulate, high verbal IQ.

Nick did tweet it multiple times, and it's a type of trolling where it's hard to know if it's trolling or not, because it's credibly something he could mean. It could mean a return to the patriarchy. Or as mentioned above a sexual joke. Or just for lolz. All this does is play into the hand of the opposing side's worst possible framing, yet for memetic value it wins.

This is why Nick is so smart. He waited until after the election, knowing nothing could be done; making one's own team look bad with sexism is not a concern anymore. He was originally skeptical of Trump and hated Vance, so he's hedging his bets, and then after Trump wins, instead of looking dumb or a traitor by not voting for him, he one-ups everyone else by being MORE extreme so his supporters forget that he didn't vote for Trump. had Trump lost he could have just blamed Trump being a Zionist shill. So both bases covered.

The lesson is clear: do not run women

Like everything, it's hit or miss. Elites being necessary doesn't imply all elites are good or competent.

The left doesn't hate McDonald's, or at least not anymore. It employs a lot of minorities, has many inner-city locations, and has always appealed to urban/hip sensibilities. I think there is more hate for McDonald's by the right for the whole obesity/seed oil angle. As part of the whole post-2021, post-Covid health reversal which saw the political polarity flip in terms of health culture, the left went from admonishing fast food in the early 2000s (e.g. Supersize Me) to bringing it under their coalition/fold. This is partly why they were so appalled by Trump working there; the rest because they are appalled by anything Trump does, or other reasons given.

It just seemed interesting as one of those things that seemed to trigger something unexpected in people for reasons that go way beyond the substance of the actual event, and figuring out what's resonating with people in either a positive or negative way, and possibly why, seems like a good path towards predicting future trends.

it's the trump effect, anything he does evokes a disproportionate reaction, because it's trump

Trump had made it abundantly clear during campaign and after winning that there would be tariffs, and even when he floated some tariffs in January 2025 and Feb against Mexico and Canada , the stock market brushed it off, only to crash a month ago. The market seemed to have no problem with tariffs until only a month ago.

This means a pardon will be on the table as soon as it's an option. My complain is that the FBI and prosecutors have too much power overall whether it's sentence length or the scope of indictments, affecting both sides of the aisle, so this leads to more pardons and preemptive pardons. The abuse of pardons is really to lessen the the power of the judiciary. Compared to the rest of the developed world, the US hands out long sentences and indictments like candy, for all sort of things. The scary thing is how many files the FBI has on people who are never actually charged...it's immense.

The metabolism slowdown is the major problem. Some people see such a huge slowdown despite still being fat and cutting calories to low levels. those people are screwed . you can only cut so much

where you getting this from? i have not seen headlines indicating such

cognitive tests are already allowed and common: it's called the Wonderlic test. There of tons of threads on Reddit of people having taken it. The NFL has used the test for a decades and not once has been sued despite blacks consistently doing much worse than whites.