@greyenlightenment's banner p

greyenlightenment

investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

2 followers   follows 0 users  
joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC

blog https://greyenlightenment.com/

Verified Email 

				
User ID: 68


				
				
				

			

		

	














	


		


			



	

		

			

			

				

					

						

							
						

						

							
							

								
greyenlightenment


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

				
				
				

				

					2 followers  

					follows 0 users  

					joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC
				


				
					

					
blog https://greyenlightenment.com/



				

				

				

				

				

					

					

					
					
					

					
User ID: 68


					
					
					
				

			


					

						
							
								Verified Email
							
						
					



		

	

 











			
			

			
			

			




	


		

			
‎

			

				
				

					Hour
					Day
					Week
					Month
					
					All
				

			


			
‎

			

	
	

	 Hot Bump Bottom New Old Controversial Comments
	



		

	






	

		
		

		
		
	

	

  







		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 7, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Given that obesity is sorta culture war related and in the news a lot, I figured this story would be relevant: Weight-Loss Stocks Soar After Obesity-Drug Study Spurs Investor Frenzy




Weight-loss tied stocks jumped following the update with rival Eli Lilly & Co. surging 15% to a record high. A positive outlook in Lilly’s earnings report also helped fuel the climb. Viking Therapeutics Inc., a drug developer working on a treatment similar to Novo’s Wegovy, jumped 12%. And WW International Inc. — better known as Weight Watchers — which bought a telemedicine firm that prescribes obesity medications earlier this year, soared 13%.






Novo’s Wegovy showed a 20% reduction in heart issues compared to those getting a placebo in a closely watched study. The results cheered Wall Street bulls who called it a best-case scenario. Analysts saw the benefit extending the market for Wegovy as well as Lilly’s Mounjaro and possibly removing an obstacle in insurance reimbursement.




I am more convinced than ever that these drugs are not only the future of wright loss, but similar to Paxil, is also going to a part of culture too and another tool or crutch to mitigate the downsides of modernity, except instead of social   anxiety , it's too much food. We're sorta collectively  inflicted this on ourselves, as victims of our own success. The  pendulum if progress has swung so far towards abundance that we need modern technology just to try to undo it.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 4, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Many dems believe 2016 was stolen; for the right, it's 2020. The problem is , recent elections have become too close and too high stakes. no one talks about irregularities  or inconsistencies of the 1984, 1980, 1996, 2008, or 2012 elections, which were more overtly lopsided. Instead of either side occasionally running duds like Mondale, Dole, Romney, etc. the process of selecting candidates has become much more optimized and the nation more divided, overall, leading to closer elections in which refereeing and counting plays a more important role. This is going to get worse and people will continue to lose faith in the process, for both sides.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 13, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
this pearl clutching by the ADL is the worst. it turns off almost everyone and frames them as being the victims, when they are not. disagreement about foreign policy is not hate speech.




This, combined with Nikki Haley's recent bizarre "Israel doesn't need the US, we need them" nonsense makes me think the GOP is trying to make some sort of push regarding foreign policy towards Israel. Or maybe it really is all one big conspiracy lol?




like 2003 again. the possibility of deployment cannot be ruled out if things get worse.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 15, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


The reason you can’t just go to jail for shoplifting is the same reason you can’t have a working criminal justice system - any effective anti-crime policy will be functionally indistinguishable from an anti-black policy. Progressive policymakers and prosecutors have understood and internalized this lesson, and have decided to simply ignore criminal recidivism since the alternative is to throw thousands of black people in jail.




yup. same for scrapping or diluting gifted ed programs. or colleges ignoring or discounting the SATs for admissions purposes.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of June 12, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
what many of us suspected on day 1, but was labeled as misinformation by major social networks.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 22, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The remaining primaries and convention at this point serve as little more  than a coronation  for the inevitable Trump nomination. It was discussed last week the unlikely circumstances in which Trump is prevented from running.  The  questions  now are:


    

  1. 

    The likelihood  Trump wins? Betting markets put the odds between  40-60%, which is not that useful but is what I would expect. The election will be very close and come down to the usual swing states like in 2020 and 2016. Biden's approval ratings are precariously low for an incumbent, especially given that the Electoral College  works to Trump's advantage.
    

    2. 

  2. 

    What will a second Trump term be like? My guess is much like his first term. A lot of  hollow populist gestures to his base  but not much happens. I still don't understand these people who are otherwise centrist or middle-left like Matt Yglesias and Noah Smith, who predict or expect a foreign policy  crisis if trump wins , but always fail to articulate what this entails. I guess they have to keep toeing the 'orange man bad' line even though he was not that bad, and the economy and other metrics did well under his presidency (until Covid, which was out of his control anyway).   Key alliances were strained much, as commonly feared in 2016-2017. The leadership of allies like Germany and France begrudgingly accepted Trump, and not much else happened.
    

    3. 



				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 25, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It was a big deal in 2015-2019 online especially, but like a lot of things of that era, it fizzled out. The peak was 2017 , before the ill-fated Unite the Right rally, as you mentioned. It has been replaced/subsumed by the civ-nat/trad people  on Twitter, who tend to reject the paganism or secularity of the alt-right, while still being anti-left. This is higher status too. The alt-right was damaged by being low status and being associated with LARP-ing behavior.




Even when they got together at their biggest event with Unite the Right in Charlottesville, there were barely 1,000 of them and they were vastly outnumbered by counter-protesters.




That is typically what you would expect for a movement that is mostly online. Considering that attending such an event is not without risks (like being assaulted or loss of employment), this is an underestimate of actual support.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				ACX: Galton, Ehrlich, Buck
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


I was not at all familiar with Ehrlich’s work,




His 'work'  is a 1968 book in which he was wrong about everything, and then a follow-up book in which he is also wrong. At 90 he's still collecting tenure.   He epitomizes everything wrong with academia and public intellectuals. Be wrong and still get paid and get accolades.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 8, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/12/us/jordan-neely-daniel-penny-new-york-subway-death-charge/index.html


Daniel Penny, a 24-year old Marine, turned himself to police after being charged with 2nd degree manslaughter for the killing of Jordan Neely. It looks like I was initially wrong. I said that drugs may have played a role given that the original NYTs story, which I replied to, from a week ago said that Neely had been choked for only 2-3 minutes and released and was unresponsive. The updated story is that he was choked out for much longer,  as long as 15 minutes, which would have def. been lethal, and the video is pretty bad.


So retract my original argument in which I posit drugs played a role.  This is why you should always wait until you have all the information before forming an opinion. I didn't think the story would blow up like it did. I just assumed it was some random altercation. The video is why it went so viral. I think Penny is not without some guilt here. Keeping someone in a choke for so long is going to  end in death. It's likely Neely was not rendered unconscious  near-instantly  from blood loss to the brain, such as from a sleeper hold as I assumed from the original story (I assumed Penny put Neely in a hold, and then Neely went limp in 20-30 seconds and did not come back), but  far worse, had been suffocated to death, like being held underwater because his windpipe was restricted.  That's why he was flailing around. It would have been more humane had Penny just shot him although that would have carried a worse charge.


A second degree manslaughter conviction is not that bad. only max 15 years for killing someone, and with parole Penny may only spend 5 years, which is a pretty lenient sentence for killing a guy, and not even in self defense or accident. By comparison, Ross Ulbricht faces multiple life sentences despite not killing anyone.    I cannot say Penny is not without some blame in this matter.  But In Penny's defense, the police took too long to come, and despite Marine training he and his accomplices didn't know what else to do.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of June 12, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
i think you're overreading into this. it's in the same 4 pt band since 2011-2008. next year it could be down 2 pts.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 29, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I have tried debating liberals on this, and it's not just leftists who are hostile to HBD. It usually ends up going in circles. they start by denying that IQ is real or  that it measure anything. i ask why are some people better at {math,engineering,physics, etc.} than others, and it's a sort of cognitive  dissonance  of conceding that there is some innate ability or 'thing' that is unequally distributed  but at the same time not the same as intelligence.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 25, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


People who commit crimes in welfare states are criminals either because of mental issues such as low Iq, low impulse control and psychopathy, or they want status




Or out of opportunity. lenient sentences creates an incentive to commit crime, too.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 1, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Yes, I know, Covid "has been over" for well over a year, pretty much no-one cares about this topic anyway, but I wonder if we'll now start more getting full appraisals of the entire Covid period. It is bewildering to consider how little people (apart from the two formed and ongoing "Covid tribes" - lockdown/vaccine skeptics on one hand, zero-covidists still wearing masks on the other hand) care about Covid now, considering how large it loomed for two years. For instance, I watched some Finnish election debates a few months ago, and the dire financial/general status of the health care system was frequently discussed with almost no mentions and indications that the Covid crisis and the decisions done during this period might have had anything to do with it.




I at least will not forget that businesses, lives destroyed on useless preventive measures while these experts kept their jobs and faced no accountability for being so wrong.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of February 19, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


But large conspiracies are not impossible. Many conspiracies continue to exist even when all or most information is publicly available. For example, there was a large scale effort to convince the public that Covid had a zoonotic origin. Perhaps it did, perhaps it didn't. But evidence in support of a lab leak was deliberately denigrated by nearly all authority figures. There was no need to maintain a secret channel of communication. Once consensus was established, peopled picked up the signals to stay on side, and ones who didn't were punished. The best evidence in favor of a lab leak (that the pandemic started near a lab doing gain-of-function research on coronaviruses) was never secret. It was just not spoken of.




Yup a notable example of a large scale conspiracy  are the trading strategies used by Renaissance Technologies, which after many decades and hundreds of employees and considerable speculation online are still a secret. Not a single one of those employees spilled the beans to the public, thanks to NDAs and financial incentives to stay quiet.  It is indeed possible for large groups of people to keep secrets for a long time.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 18, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


This approach should, theoretically, neutralise right wing arguments against open borders.




Work visas for a  subset of  of the population is not the same as open borders. Open borders  means anyone can enter for any reason. You're using these terms interchangeably.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 6, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
‘The Marvels’ Meltdown: Disney MCU Seeing Lowest B.O. Opening Ever At $47M+ — What Went Wrong




SATURDAY AM UPDATE: The last-minute push for The Marvels with an appearance by star Brie Larson on The Tonight Show and at a theater in NYC post-actors strike have not moved weekend grosses any higher for Marvel Studios‘ The Marvels. The film is seeing a Friday in the vicinity of where we expected it at $21.5M, and a weekend opening between $47M-$52M, the lowest ever for Disney‘s Marvel Cinematic Universe.






Oh, also, The Marvels gets one of several post-pandemic B CinemaScores from audiences after Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (B+), Thor Love & Thunder (B+), Eternals (B), and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (B). Comscore/Screen Engine PostTrak exits are worse at 3 1/2 stars and a 73% positi




It's even worse after factoring in double-digit inflation since 2021 or so. Disney, however, is the master of 'Hollywood accounting' and squeezing every drop of water from a franchise installment, such as  licensing or merchandizes for years after the movie is discontinued from theatres.   Also   the "Disney‘s Marvel Cinematic Universe" is comprised of  24 movies. Some of these movies are expected to be underwhelming or loss-leaders and are not given an equal marketing push. It's assumed that Iron Man sequels will do better than stuff like "Ant-Man and the Wasp".


Richard Hanania blames gender pandering/wokeness, but it's worth noting that the 2017 Wonder Woman did well ($800+ million gross total , $100+ million open)  despite obviously having a female lead. Also, having a pretty (by conventional Western standards) blonde lead does not also fit into the wokeness paradigm either.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 7, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
As some are already aware, Huff Po is attempting to cancel the controversial  writer/pundit  Richard Hanania over some far-right  posts he wrote a decade ago under an alias,  which has been  tied to his real identity.  This coincides with his release of his book by Harper Collins, with the intent to have the publisher cancel it.
v


The Huffington Post article: https://archive.is/YbIpz


(it would have been a 'boss move' had Elon suspended Huff Po account over this, declaring 'cancel culture is over'. )


There is already a prediction market about it, with 80 percent 'yes' it will be published


https://manifold.markets/AnonPlz/will-harper-collins-publish-richard


I agree overall though that nothing bad will happen to him, as I discuss here on my own blog post.  First, cancellation does not work that well on academics/pundits as it does on other professions/careers (such as tenure). Even top CEOs are easier to cancel than pundits.  Second, the left's credibility has been eroded in recent years due to hoxes , fake news, and 'mission creep' (when everyone is a racist or other bad person, the term loses its meaning/potency).


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 15, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It peaked but a comeback was still possible in 2023  , just improbable.  Politics is full of surprises and comebacks.




The more republican primary voters got to know Ron Desantis the less they wanted to vote for him apparently.




I think it was more  to do with being overshadowed by Trump, literally in the case of being physically smaller. Without Trump, DeSantis is competitive; in  late 2022  he polled ahead of Trump for a few months or so on the anti-wokeness angle, which was no small feat. Regarding relatability ,is he worse than Romney, yet he was nominated.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of June 12, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
so Japan. I recall someone here raised this hypothetical four-six or so  months ago. There were no answers/solutions  within the framework of liberal democracy. The problem is people are motivated by relative social status. Govt. incentives will never be good enough. Aid is good for raising the bottom, but dos not help the top 10 percent who want to join the ranks of the top 1 percent.  The issue is is not scarcity of money but scarcity of status.  forcing people to do things crosses into the line of authoritarianism.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 15, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Agree. people   think that bigger means stronger or better fighter. Outside of weight classes in which skill is controlled for, this is hardly true. Someone enraged and on drugs can have considerable strength, way more than suggested by appearance alone . Studies show considerable variance of grip strength for males even controlling for weight, with many smaller, lighter guys having more grip strength than bigger, heavier guys. It's also unlikely he was actually malnourished or even hungry.   Someone  who has been professionally homeless for a decade cannot find a foodbank?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 22, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Well, what do you know, Alabama has now actually implemented this “most humane” form of execution for the first time, and news coverage from the BBC and others have been almost exclusively negative. There’s little to no nuance, just statements that the UN and EU condemns this “particularly cruel and unusual punishment.” Where now is the context that the US is merely doing what it was previously criticized for not doing?




Obviously it's negative because they are opposed to the concept of a death penalty altogether.


Regarding Canada or other examples or scenarios, waaaay easier to put someone to death who wants to die and will comply compared to someone who does not.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 15, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


To tie it back to wokeness, wokeness is designed to distract from and cope with this structural reality. Say you have 10 graduate students in a chemistry program and there’s a job for only one of them at the end. You’re engaged in a Malthusian struggle, fistfights over beakers and Bunsen burners. Then somebody says something slightly racist or slightly inappropriate. What a relief – you can throw that one person off the overcrowded bus! That kind of phenomenon is perfectly natural, and could be avoided with more growth.




Except it's not at all like this. Sure, maybe only one finds a chemistry job, but they all eventually find  decent jobs, if the stats are any indication. College grads have half the unemployment rate compared to high school grads, and make considerably more money too , especially for STEM. This is the problem with these theories of society. They start with the theory and then everything  must bend towards it or viewed through the lens of it.


I agree about consulting. Same for the financial services sector, and also the advertising industry. There are large sectors of the economy in which people are being  paid large sums of money to produce mediocre results, or in which there is no way to track or quantify results, like with ad spending. It's a problem of asymmetric information. The firm knows its overcharging or overpromising, and the client doesn't.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 18, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


I love the irony that baseball cards from your father's era are valuable because kids played with them (and ruined them) and Moms threw out the collection later, while baseball cards from my era are still totally worthless because everyone from my childhood saved them in archival quality protetive materials (I still remember kids arguing about the merits of various cardboard boxes and plastic pockets sheets) for long term storage. All of our 1989 Ken Griffey Jr Upper Deck #1 were going to be worth a fortune because they were perfectly preserved.




They are worthless because also too many were made and there is no community around them. MTG and Pokémon have a large community/fandom and utility in that they can be played. Powerful, rare cards are valuable for their in-game utility. baseball cards and comic books are static things with a much smaller community and no utility.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 4, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Disney has outperformed or tracked the S&P 500 as far back as it began trading. 2022-2023 is a huge  outlier in terms of bad relative performance . from $200 to $80 in just a year vs spx almost having recovered its losses. i think you could be right that the stock may have simply gotten ahead of itself due to Star Wars and Marvel hype wearing off, combined with some costly unforced errors, changing sentiment, woke backlash, etc. .


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of February 19, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
This would be fine if so many employers did not req. degrees. Employers love degrees because it's an effective filtering mechanism.