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greyenlightenment

investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

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joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC

blog https://greyenlightenment.com/

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greyenlightenment


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

				
				
				

				

					2 followers  

					follows 0 users  

					joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC
				


				
					

					
blog https://greyenlightenment.com/



				

				

				

				

				

					

					

					
					
					

					
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	 Hot Bump Bottom New Old Controversial Comments
	



		

	






	

		
		

		
		
	

	

  







		

			
			
				Israel-Gaza Megathread #1
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The left has always supported Palestine. not a surprise at all.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 15, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


On the other hand I have no relatable experience from my own environment with this sort of thing. Shoplifting was just something teenagers did to get a free Snickers, or the much more rare person stealing clothing. This kind of behavior seems so alien and weird. Can you really maintain 'normal' shopping culture with this sort of thing happening? Or will this be 'solved' by more technology and automation where the most you will see of what you buy is an image on a screen until you pay the machine. Moving us one step closer to real life idiocracy.




These are professional gangs. they ransack stores and steal thousands of dollars of merch at a time. It's not at all like teenagers shoplifting out of boredom or for an occasional CD here and there.  Sometimes they use kids due to less severe punishments. It needs to be treated as an organized crime problem, not just a behavioral one or economic scarcity one.  The above solutions are useless and fail to do that.


The fed. govt. needs to get involved, to lessen the burden from states in charging and imprisoning these offenders. this is an instance where states do not have enough resources to fight the problem, and shows the limitations of states' rights. bail reform is a problem too. Instead of trillions wasted on education and other useless or overpaid stuff, divert that $ to prison spending where it's needed most. The ROI from putting away criminals, who impose a cost on everyone,  is way greater than spending trillions to raise reading scores by .001%.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 15, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Agree. Behavior and individuals who inflict negative externalities on all, is tolerated  too much as it is.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of February 19, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


I doubt even the most principled libertarian would be able to resist spending tens of billions of dollars forever.




Some of the most principled libertarians worked in academia or were writers, the opposite  of or private enterprise or cutthroat corporate capitalism. So it does not seem implausible the most principled libertarians would not spend the money.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 27, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Secondly, the interests and incentives of an institution are not the interests and incentives of the people within it. As I've seen it put elsewhere (particularly in discussions of the police, but also other fields), the first and highest job duty of any employee is not what it says on their job description, it's to make the boss happy.




Advertising is a subject , which, like nutrition advice, no one really  seems to know any anything, or nothing is definitive or set in stone. Why does McDonald's advertise so much when everyone is already aware it exists? But Facebook never does? I dunno. Companies advertise to create demand and awareness  for the product. this seems obvious. but also to send a message, which can explain ads which lack any sort of call to action or product.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 7, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
music  has been glorying violence  forever, and not just rap, from ancient war hymns to Bobby Darin's “Mack the Knife” , which   is about a murderer, and was  big hit in the button-down , culturally conservative 1960s.  Or the 1984 country collaboration "Highwayman".


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 29, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
what better way to deflect criticism of a group than to give said group protected status against criticism


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of February 26, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


However, though it isn't his fault directly, having Trump in charge would impact my everyday life negatively, mostly because it would fuel another 4 years of incessant leftist whining all around me, from all my friends and family, along with people starting to (erroneously, IMO) see and declare that racism and sexism is everywhere again.




The left, initially blindsided by Trump, turned it  their advantage in 2016-2020, starting with the explosion pronoun and gender issues in 2017 , impeachment and FBI investigations in 2019, and then ending with Covid restrictions and mass social media censorship in 2020. I don't think it will be as bad if Trump wins again.  The difference now is the left no longer has as much control over the narrative, as seen on Twitter now with Elon's takeover. I think many of these issued are played out.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of February 19, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


They did know, but nobody spoke up because there is a culture of silence at Google.




It's not so much as a culture as the incentives encourage it. It's dream job. Imagine growing up poor or lower middle class and now being in the top .1-1%.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of February 14, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Deep fakes have existed for a while  now, but they tend to be easily detected . The moving or transposed parts tend to not align well with the static parts and audio, creating a weird effect. For enough money the quality can be improved. I imagine a  well funded actor could create a deep fake which passes such scrutiny.  There was a notable incident: $25 million stolen due to a deep fake. This will get worse, and likely will require better ways of vetting sources as deep fake technology improves.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 29, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


It's been interesting watching this argument continue to unfold between Stancil and Sailer, and it's still going on. A couple weeks ago we had the CW thread about BAP saying that Sailer-style race-realism is a dead end and the right-wing should embrace the myth of colorblindness. This thread shows why that conclusion is wrong. HBD is not a mythological replacement for progressivism (and that is actually what we need), but this thread shows it's needed because it's incredibly disruptive to the liberal mind.




This is also proof that no press is bad press. Did Stancil  lose? Yes, if you have to resort to calling your better-prepared opponent a Klansman then I think that is an admission of defeat, but he also got a lot of fans who agree with him. So both sides benefited.  I think it shows how weak or ideologically motivated the anti-HBD arguments tend to be. Anyone had the opportunity to shutdown Steve but no one rose to the occasion.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 22, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
From the above link




Navarro was convicted in September on two counts for refusing to testify and provide documents to the House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol, which issued its report and dissolved in late 2022 after Republicans won control of the House.






The charge carried a mandatory minimum sentence of a month in prison. Federal prosecutors had sought six months for Navarro, saying he, “like the rioters at the Capitol, put politics, not country, first, and stonewalled Congress’s investigation.” Navarro, prosecutors said, “chose allegiance to former President Donald Trump over the rule of law.” Federal prosecutors said Navarro “thumbed his nose” at the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol.




This continues in the tradition of people being associated with Trump or defending him, like Jan 6th, being arrested . At least many of the sentences are very short but the definite  risk  of jail and career and reputational loss must be taken into consideration for anyone who wants to associate  with Trump. Trump himself is still untouchable as those around him keep falling.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 8, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The future of Open Ai is much like Wolfram Alpha--something overhyped to change the world and initially really cool and useful,  but now crap due to to extreme metering of computational power and paywalls. Expect the same here. The need to turn a profit from this will limit the power.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 1, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


I’ve read a lot of fairly surface level articles and reviews about this by people like Scott Alexander, Brand Caplan, and Freddie DeBoer, but mostly forget the details. They tend toward saying that most things work about as well as other things, but some situations are miserable or waste a lot of money and resources, and wasting billions of dollars making people miserable for no reason is probably bad.




They are mostly right. Much of this stuff is vague, indeterminate, or wishy-washy. Smarter kids tends to imply better outcomes regardless of pedological  method. At the extremes , parenting matters , specially extreme wealth.  trump's kids will turn out fine, or at least have better odds of success compared to kids of average upbringing. I read that one-on-one tutoring helps a lot.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Wellness Wednesday for December 27, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Game development seems like a good enough grift, right?




If the objective is to make money fast, this is probably not an ideal path . Game dev. is saturated beyond belief


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 27, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


This is not to say that white men are somewhat underrepresented, that despite being 31% of the US population, they’re only 15% of those being cast in ads, or something along those lines. This is to say that there are literally no white men in TV commercials. You can watch ad-supported TV for hours and not see a single one. For a while I noticed that white men were allowed to be shown, but only if there was a non-white, non-male onscreen with them. But more recently the trend has been to simply not show them at all.




yeah, blacks are 13% of US population yet have 70+% representation in ads, it seems. Same for govt. work (not just blacks but other minorities too). Some stereotypes are true.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 13, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


With those numbers, you’re exceedingly unlikely to know anyone with kids going through those procedures. To me, this just seems like a moral panic amplified through the news in order to distract the masses from real issues - the housing crisis, corruption, school shootings, inflation, wealth inequality, social services being stripped away, the erosion of the middle class. Why do you care about this? Why do trans issues keep getting posted, over and over, when it’s a largely irrelevant issue to the vast majority of people?




Welcome to the culture wars in America. This trend dates to the early 90s, in which a few suicides possibly due to lyrics was the most pressing thing in America at the time. 'Big issues' are understood to be hard to fix and out of anyone's control. Smaller-stakes culture war battles get more mileage. Trans  issues are seen as being symptomatic of broader-scale problems...the canary in a coal mine.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 13, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I am going to give it to Scott. There are no references online to 'motte and bailey' in a context that does not have to do with castles, until Scott's 2014 article. And then it exploded from there.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 16, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
SBF could have sure benefited from a gag order.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 4, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


.Can Michael Lewis just release the book? Because I need to know how his mind ticks




hasn't considerable ink been spilled on this matter? he's a basically  a high IQ sociopath and some narcissism too, similar to many white collar criminals and cult leaders. he had the boy genius thing going on, but same sort of thing.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of June 26, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
as i wrote in an earlier blog post (https://greyenlightenment.com/2022/09/01/elite-overproduction-not-that-big-of-a-deal-yet/) , the case for elite overproduction, assuming such a thing is real, being societally destabilizing  seems weak, imho. I agree society is much more competitive at the top-end compared to generations ago, such as math and coding competitions, Silicon Valley tech jobs, NYC finance jobs, high-stakes admissions, etc., but I fail to see how this is a threat per say  even if it creates more anxiety among the striver-class or disillusionment. If anything, it's beneficial to have smarter people at the top, running companies, which is a tailwind for innovation and economic growth.  Brain drain and capital outflows are  way bigger problems than having too many elites. I would go so far as to say that elite overproduction is at the bottom of the ladder of possible things that are a problem.  This is why emerging markets and most other foreign markets have done so poorly relative to the US economy and the S&P 500 since 2009 or so.,.,fewer brains, exiting  capital, lack of innovation.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of June 19, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


I know it's beating a dead horse at this point, but this whole Prigozhin situation made one fact crystal clear: American dissident right (and "anti-nato left" by extension) is extremely solipsistic, much more than other factions in American culture war. Just take a look at some of those takes which are prevalent among this crowd




This war-as-a-distraction meme dates back to the 90s, such as wag the dog, and is not just the fringe-right. Conspiratorial thinking is a major tradition/aspect of American  politics. Americans in general have a  low opinions of its leaders. But our leaders haven't done much to burnish this reputation, so it's understandable why so many feel this way. Even if elites are not directly coordinating, they share a similar worldview nonetheless. The us vs. them framing is not entirely wrong, but i think both sides overestimate how well the opposing side is able to coordinate.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of June 5, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
This is why relying on APIs for business model is always risky. Same for Apple app store. you  are at the mercy of these companies. no diversification.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 29, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
reddit sucks. news at 11... it has been going downhill for a long time in terms of worsening censorship of anything outside of an increasingly narrow approved worldview. mods have too much power, no way to remove bad mods. it's ridiculously  easy to get banned on subs on reddit for even dumbest of reasons or no reason at all.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Friday Fun Thread for May 12, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


This will probably get buried but it's outrageous that you can be bankrupted by medical debt if you get sick in the US! In Europe this doesn't happen.




I run a cancer forum on reddit https://old.reddit.com/r/coloncancer In the  6+ years moderating the community, I have encountered exactly zero Americans being bankrupted or made destitute due to medical debt, or being denied treatments or long delays owing to unaffordability. Everyone gets good, timely, high-quality treatments regardless of socioeconomic status, including costly surgeries and the latest chemo even if there is low likelihood of the procedures working. High medical bills are either negotiated lower, covered by various insurance programs (like Medicaid), covered by charity care, etc. Medical debt can be easily discharged, unlike other types of debt.