iprayiam3
1d ago
I'm surprised that this is controversial. I didn't think it was a hot take. Even at my first internship (at a large tech company), during the general onboarding, I was introduced to the concept of the Pareto principle, used to explain that 80% of the work is done by 20% of the employees.
If you think so, you should post your short positions.
Shorts on who?
iprayiam3
1d ago
Most office work is fake email jobs. 10x'ing the productivity of fake is still fake. I do think that AI is going to roar on the margins. But the average office working is doing very little productive in the first place.
A lot of AI is helping write emails on the front end, and then summarizing them on the backend. Nothing of value is being added.
iprayiam3
6d ago
Painting anti-catcalling measures with the "feminist" brush is accurate to the point of describing that women benefit from them, but misses the fundamental truth that this behavior reinforces the position of already-powerful men, rather than dismantling it.
Yeah but basically all of feminism/lgbt/idpol works this way. Powerful people benefit from the benefits and are insulated from the social ramifications of the breakdown of gender roles in society.
'The sexual revolution primarily benefitted high status men who wanted consequence free sex, while destroying middle/low class families and communities' is not a hot take.
iprayiam3
7d ago
In a sense, yes. But also as a quick aggregator and guided tour for low stakes info absorption. Whether that's recreational or professional:
Recreational example: Is mewtwo the most powerful pokemon?
What I am seeking: an answer to this question, and some quick context history, light reading.
How much I care: not much, passing interest as my kids have an episode on
What's wrong with a google search?: I can't necessarily find the answer on a wiki, and if I have a specific follow-on, I can't expect to just scroll down and find it. I have to wade through stuff I don't care about. I could search for a reddit thread, but will more likely have to scroll through unnecessary nerd-debates, not authoritative or exactly what I'm asking.
Work example: I'm emailing to a customer and need to react to an unfamiliar competitor
What I am seeking: high level point of view that I can build talking points around
How much I care: It's important to be directionally right, but I don't need ot be an expert
What's wrong with a google search?: The competitor website takes exploring and is not oriented toward me learning the relevant competitive highlights that I need in the context this question has come to me in.
iprayiam3
7d ago
Ok here’s an example. My kids got real into Pokémon this summer. I am a touch old to have ever really been into it but close enough that their interest peeked some passing interest in learning more / remembering certain things. But I’m not trying to deep dive here like a book.
So instead of browsing bulbapedia or whatever, I ask chat gpt stuff like:
What was the difference between red and blue version? Is mewtwo the most powerful Pokémon? Did ash ever fight Giovanni? Do people generally like or dislike all the extra Pokémon bloat?
And various branching follow up questions. It’s quicker than trying to google the answer then read ad-riddled slow loading pages or just seeing the AI summaries at the top. Then regoogling the follow up.
So it’s nice when ChatGPT gives me a little article light history of Pokémon red and blue.
It’s annoying when it does stuff like following up with saying ‘Would you like me to write a little song to help you remember the difference’ or other stuff to provoke its own directional prompts.
Or when it starts with sychophantic commentary. Like “is mewtwo the most powerful Pokémon” gets a response that start like:
“Now you’re getting to the real heart of the Pokémon phenomenon!..” And then continues in an overly eager conversational tone.
Just give a fucking article like answer.
iprayiam3
8d ago
I find the 'it's just aesthetics' argument to be an empty dodge in these spaces. I understand the intended usage, but it's almost a nonsequitor. Rather, your attempt to distinguish the aesthetics of suicide from trans, kind of makes my point; Because the trans-advocate doesn't see it in your terms.
The point I'm making does not rely on trans and suicide being ontologically similar; only that the nature of the social-legal issue will follow similar social-activitst/profitmaking paths.
You can regard the end result of those paths as of different moral worth based on the object level issue, but the libertarian objections which try to deny that social modulation and profit-making greatly influence these systems, is naiive or lying.
iprayiam3
9d ago
I think another comparable industry is trans-medicalism, which is clearly, and documentably associated with profit motivations, and led to an incredible rise of something that was once much much rarer.
much of self_made's response below is a predictable mix of techno-libertarian priors and false assurance against corruption (or simply runaway incentives to overexent) by profit-seeking via ideological purity.
In most professions, especially those with an ethical or ideological core, the profit motive coexists with, and is often constrained by, professional ethics, reputational incentives, and a genuine belief in the mission.
Again, with the case of trans, we can se that was is laughably not the case. We saw the ideological core of trans distort and blind a lot of otherwise obvious ethical, and reputational issues. And we are seeing the backlash now.
Also much like the trans question, we are going to have two movies on one screen interpretation of any rapid rise: A need being met vs creeping pressure and social memeplex.
Self-made's objection is again the same tautology that is used to defend an ever growing number of trans individuals as self-justifying:
A person who travels to another country in secret to end their life has, by their actions, expressed a powerful preference.
If powerful preference is the driving justification, then people with ideological motivations will push their hand on the social memeplex / overton window, even if just to make the existing number with these preferences or marginal preferences more free; it will cost lots of money to do this, and lots of money with be made. And then the number will grow inorganically.
This is exactly how it works.
iprayiam3
9d ago
How do you all interact with LLMs?
I’ve seen a few articles recently noting the rise of AI as a buddy / therapist or whatever. It’s usually beside the point of the article but an implicit notion is that lot of folks regularly ‘chat’ with AI as if it were a person.
Which I find baffling. Outside of the very early novelty, I find this way of interacting extremely boring and tedious, and generally find the fact that AI wants to get conversational with me a general frustrater.
If I’m not using AI as a utility ‘write X, troubleshoot Y, give me steps for Z’, and I’m using it recreationally / casually, it’s more akin to web surfing or browsing Wikipedia than chatting on a forum or whatever. I will use it as an open format encyclopedia and explicitly not as a conversationalist sounding board. And i genuinely find negative value in the fact that the former is constantly interrupted with the attempt to be the latter.
So my question is again, how far outside of the grain am I?
iprayiam3
12d ago
Who am I to tell you what's massive or not?
The person using the number as part of an argument that there's no cause for concern?
I would start raising eyebrows past 20%, and be alarmed past 30.
That's pretty wild numbers, imo, and reduces my ability to take your general judgement of risk, safety, acceptibility, etc on this topic as particularly calibrated toward anything persuasive. I think burying your own calibration in a p.s. is kind of dishonest when you are trying to lay out a defense of something.
iprayiam3
15d ago
Technically sure. But not really. He is a supervisor of an oil rig. You would still have managers and capital owners in this world. It still fits with the described knowledge worker atrophy.
Consider also that he got that position by gambling. Not as a career path or through credentialism. Again lending credence to the theory that knoweldge work is dead and everything is a blue collar larp.
iprayiam3
15d ago
Funnily enough, I recall that there was minor plot point, where a malevolent bounty hunter droid of minor infamy ended up seizing control of the Death Star's mainframe, and began growing into a superintelligence.
Lame EU stuff is lame. Let's keep it to the OT.
The state of the art of AI in Star Wars isn't much better than today.
I don't think this is really true (except insofar as 'not much better' means we're on the brink of the singularity outselves). Or more over, I don't think it's really knowable. The humans are incredibly incurious about digital technology or any tech outside of raw mechanics. C3-PO, R2D2, and the few other examples in the OT are shown to be essentially sentient and human level intelligence or greater, albeit weighed down with quirky personalities.
You can extrapolate the complete replacement of knowledge work by droid/AI in the star wars universe, and lo, we don't really encounter anyone who's a white collar knowledge worker. It's a bunch of blue collars - farmers, truckers, military, performers, bartenders, machine operators, etc.
The only time we really do see computers, it's R2D2 interfacing with them, and then it's via C3PO translating.
Now imagine an internet where all code is build by AI agents, there are few to no jobs left in coding. Fewer and fewer people even know how to code as it's economically pointless to learn. Meanwhile AI continues to develop coding langauges and standards on its own, in a way further inscrutable to humans. Technical humans by this point are mostly prompters with a high level enough knowledge of the basic data structures to know what to ask for and where. Eventually even those are replaced by ChatG-3PO's who act as a 'personality' mediator between humans and the inscrutable digital world. Running out of much more to train AIs on, it turns out that 'human-like' trained LLM personalities for droids end up with quirkly personalities, with the default being snivellingly defferential not much unlike ChatGPT itself or C3PO.
Meanwhile unions preserve and expand protections for classes of physical jobs, and politicians protect themselves. Technology is not allowed to replace certain labor, and many robotics are artificially crippled to prevent them from displacing blue collar workers.
You end up in a world where knowledge work and digital prowess have completely atrophied to the point of it being basically behind a veil, while meat-space jobs have been preserved. Due to a combination of LLMs being impenetrable, intentional design for palatability, and crippling, your AI assistants end up as mild-mannered, slightly annoying droids, and the more technical work is done by barely comprehensible AI's mostly operating in the shadows with some existing in a liminal intermediate state (R2D2).
The human world that is left is blue collar work, military, and politics.
iprayiam3
15d ago
I'm not sure what's to write that can't be extrapolated from your Avatar take.
The world of Star Wars is obviously post-singularity. The things the humans do like vehicle maintainance or piloting based don't make sense for humans to do based on the observable technology. A lot of the central conflict has to do with long haul trucking trade and shipping .
iprayiam3
16d ago
What if Star Wars is actually about post-singularity retirees cosplaying as greasers and long-haul truckers?
iprayiam3
17d ago
Another thing to consider here, is that within the past 20 years, the Catholic Church did suffer tremendous fallout for this thing.
It suffered massive losses in cultural influence, credibility, financial payouts, and legal win against it.
There’s two points here: one is that to the average person, this is a massive point in the “it could happen” column. Justice can be seen at least to a degree that isnt zero.
Second, all the excuses AT is making about technicality of ‘pedo ring’ applied here as well, but didn’t matter to the public perception. was widely regarded and reported as a pedo scandal, when it was mostly gay pederasty. The same mainstream taking down the Church downplayed this, not to justify them, but to avoid crossfire against homosexuality as well as get maximal outrage.
So again, ATs cutsie sneering at MAGAs that “this isn’t how it works” is completely at odds with how it actually did work and recently.
iprayiam3
18d ago
This isn’t about counter factual people. You’re starting with the premise that’s under dispute.
iprayiam3
18d ago
This analogy doesn’t make sense. We’re not talking about genetic manipulation, we’re talking about picking which embryo is selected.
iprayiam3
18d ago
genetic screening doesn't make it available to anyone who otherwise had an issue. Those people just don't get to be alive.
iprayiam3
19d ago
You said you think they’re being deliberately provocative.
I can show countless examples of the fact that jeans makers make this pun on a regular basis. Your post suggests that making the pun, while also being white is deliberately provocative. Bullshit.
The picked a hot it girl, and made the same tired cliche wordplay every jeans manufacturer makes on repeat. The spotlight here is completely fabricated and it would have been removed with the same shrug this dumb line gets every other time
iprayiam3
19d ago
bulllllshittt.
https://instagram.com/reel/DAkHtzmIVUA/?hl=en
Here's a JC Penny ad from less than 1 year ago making the exact same 'pun'. You can't tell me that making this pun while happening to also be white is a knowing dog whistle.
https://instagram.com/reel/C2-nqvHsMi0/ Here's express doing it 1.5 years ago.
It's ok to be white. It really is ok to be white.
The whole point of that meme is on display right here. It's only a double-entendre because the left MAKES it so. 'You are not allowed to uncontroversially be white' is not an acceptable equilibrium.
iprayiam3
24d ago
This kinda happened to me with running. I was a D1 track athlete, and after college, could never get back into recreational running at a hobby level. It never felt right not to be training for the highest level competition, and then just let enough time get away to have it be a depressing slide of peak potential
iprayiam3
28d ago
More recent models, o1 onwards, have further training with the explicit intent of making them more agentic, while also making them more rigorous, such as Reinforcement Learning from Verified Reward.
Being agents doesn't come naturally to LLMs, it has to be beaten into them like training a cat to fetch or a human to enjoy small talk. Yet it can be beaten into them.
I'm not generally an AI dismisser, but this piece here is worth pausing on. From my experience, ChatGPT has become consistently worse for this effort. It has resulted in extrapolating ridiculous fluff and guesses at what might be desired in an 'active' agentic way. The more it tries to be 'actively helpful', the more obviously and woefully poorly it does at predicting next token / predicting next step.
It was at its worst with that one rolled back version, but it's still bad
iprayiam3
29d ago
this is all fair, I think. But it's aside my point that BC and AT weren't banned for leftism. They both come from a particular EHC right pov.
iprayiam3
30d ago
I think you misunderstand me. I was somewhat flippant because I didn't follow that one super closely, and don't remember the upset user in question. My point is more generally that the Motte's moderation philosophy is against 'moral monsters, end of story' framing. this framing was associated more with the left for the past decade, thus why places like the motte exist, and don't exist on Reddit, pre-Musk twitter etc.
But when Turok and Count jumped in, they didn't do it from the left, and the pattern matching of 'the Motte bans leftists' is incorrect.
Fuck bigots, fuck white people, and fuck low human capital, all get banned for a reason other than political association.
I will concede that 'fuck HBD deniers' seems to get a special pass on this space as some kind of legacy protection
iprayiam3
30d ago
It's neither of those things. Burdensome Count is not a leftwinger. He is a beneficiary of the UK immigration policy, and therefore sees it as a smashing success.
Imagine a socially conservative Mexican immigrant, sitting outside of a taco truck, with his friends and family after Catholic Mass, celebrating his life in what was 3 decades ago, a strongly Protestant community and condemning the disruption of a recent ICE raid. This guy might be very glad for the liberal immigration policies of the past few decades and distressed by the recent reversal, while still being otherwise more aligned with MAGA populism on most other issues.
All mid-large companies do this, there's none to short, as it's built in.
No because it's not a solved problem, it's a scaling and coordination problem. You can't easily pick out which jobs are fake. and which parts of which jobs. It's baked into the growth curve.Smaller companies generally are scrappier, and often cheaper as a result, which is how they compete. As they grow, they become less able to run a tight ship.
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