iprayiam3
3d ago
I mean that’s a triviality compared to the Starks ruling Winterfell unbroken for 8,000 years!!
Timescales don’t make any sense in Westeros. The only helpful explanation is that the multiyear winter cycles basically frustrate change momentum and society is stuck in a particular local minimum of social technology it can’t escape. Basically can’t risk major upheavals without risking the entire continent plunging into famine on a hair trigger. Armies become thus much less willing to mobilize, lords don’t go along with destabilizing plots etc.
In this scenario, aegons Conquest, the Dance, Robert’s rebellion, and the Wo5K are extreme aberrations against otherwise bias toward extremely careful stability
Unfortunately, this isn’t actually played out at all in the books or shows, and the actual limitations of preparing for and surviving long winters is just ignored. Winter doesn’t even seem to exist on House of the Dragon.
iprayiam3
23d ago
I’m not saying that I have faith in the government here, but it is shocking that anyone might find “self regulating” private SF company of weird tech elitists to be a superior path.
I recall once Rush on a monologue saying that global warming can’t possibly be real the way the left says because if it was true, it would require government intervention in a way that undermined capitalism and he couldn’t accept that.
I remember being just shocked at the backwards reasoning. Obviously there’s a true point about backwards incentives reducing trust in the claim. But Rush himself was just openly engaging in the reverse mindset.
Here we have the same people saying that this threat exists also not wanting to have to overturn their grip on power over it.
iprayiam3
25d ago
I can’t say it means anything or not, but I can tell you many companies I sell to have already burned through all their AI budget for the year.
iprayiam3
29d ago
My point had nothing to do with whether the election was actually stolen. I was responding to the claim that democracy can’t work if the losing side doesn’t accept the legitimacy.
Many didn’t in 2020, yet hour democracy continues.
iprayiam3
30d ago
No I think 2020 disproves this quite soundly.
If you arrest dissenters and punish them severely enough; you’re fine
iprayiam3
30d ago
You’re missing the point: the question isn’t why they lean Democrat by why they lean Raman very disproportionately from how they leaned for bass in earlier batches.
You don’t just need to explain why late votes are Democrat but why they are a different kind of Democratic, and the exact one to bring 3rd place into 2nd to keep an R off the ballot.
If late votes leaned D, but with a propoetion
iprayiam3
1mo ago
I don’t know that my parents have worried about my health since I was a small child. Not in any active way that I was made aware of. My worry about my parents health is abstract. Yes they’re getting older. My father is definitely in worse shape these past few years. It is what it is.
iprayiam3
1mo ago
Again, I don’t see this anywhere except people on the internet saying this is so.
iprayiam3
1mo ago
The only place I see the left right distinction is in online spaces where right adjacent ai enthusiasts claim the distinction is there.
In real life every conservative I know is very AI skeptical and the people least skeptical are your tech savvy blue tribers (like programmers) and those folks seem split between enthusiastic or doomers
iprayiam3
1mo ago
In your mind how is the idea of a human being eternally damned irreconcilable with the a loving God, but not a fallen angel?
iprayiam3
1mo ago
Is it the universalist belief that Satan will also be reconciled with God?
iprayiam3
2mo ago
I am always surprised at much praise season 4 gets. In my mind it’s the worst of the first four; as it’s a giant retcon/reboot that just creates a new show inside of another one’s skin using the familiarity of the characters to sneak it through.
I think each season is dramatically worse than the one before it.
As for season 5 - go ahead and finish it. However, enjoyers and haters of season 4 alike find it bad. The only camp of fans I think is those who like all of ST uncritically
iprayiam3
2mo ago
they wanted me to try and lose weight and get fitter the old fashioned way (which I did).
Ozympic?
iprayiam3
2mo ago
“Selected for Aellea’s social network” makes any kind of social commentary or inference from the results completely meaningless.
iprayiam3
2mo ago
What does the anti-war side in the US want in the Iran conflict?
Deportations.
Housing affordability. Fraud reduction. A focus on domestic policy. Spending of political capital on wins for Americans.
iprayiam3
2mo ago
sure Clav is famous for looksmaxxing, and if he stopped looksmaxxing, hed become less famous. But he's wrong in how much he advocates looksmaxxing as a generally effective strategy for status/success.
If I was famous for hopping on one foot, then continuing to hop on one foot would likely be an important part of my continued fame. But I would be wrong to espouse any general theory of hop-on-one-foot-maxxing that positioned it as a key to fame, generally.
iprayiam3
2mo ago
He believes looks are the most important factor in achieving positive social outcomes.
What's funny about Clav is that he (apparently, though I don't follow closely enough), misses the irony that looks are less important than status, which is often self-reenforcing, and thus undermines the very thing he's popular for. Looks is a way to bootstrap into status, yes, but 'maxxing' it, hits diminishing returns fast.
He is not sustainingly popular because of his looks, but his fame, e.g. success. At this point, further maxxing on looks, has negligible effect on his further success, while staying in the spotlight, will.
Contrast his with say, Mr. Beast, who also bootstrap himself into virality. But Mr. Beast didn't misunderstand himself as 'counting-maxxing' but rather recognized the metagame as, 'stunt-maxxing' or 'brand-maxxing' on a path to 'virality-maxxing'. From what I've seen, Mr. Beast (whom I pay little attention to) talks about his own success with this awareness, rather than giving general advice that others also try to do viral video stunts to be successful too.
Suppose instead, after first going viral, Mr. Beast had decided that "looks are the most important factor in achieving positive social outcomes" and doubled down on that, rather than his 'stunt' focused avenue. Would he have ended up with better social outcomes? No.
Looksmaxxing is a stupid ideology because, aside from getting meta-famous for looksmaxxing, as an object level strategy itself -> improving looks is very important to a point, then hits RAPID diminishing returns. This is true of almost anything, unless you are trying to win a zero-sum tournament niche, which is always a bad 'general' strategy.
iprayiam3
2mo ago
Late 30s - from time to time.
I’ll drink socially an every few weekends or so. From time to time I’ll buy a six pack and work on it 1-2 a night spread over the week. This is usually while unwinding after the kids go down or doing some late night work at the computer.
I’ll also go stretches without drinking at all, like Lent.
iprayiam3
2mo ago
The banana thing is a combination of being picked too early and stored too cold.
Once bananas get too cold the ripening process stops and they will rot not ripen.
iprayiam3
2mo ago
To me, it seems wild to look at this and not want to shut all eonomic immigration down hard, (H1-Bs, etc).
Economics is often not intuitive, and this is not likely to actually help the situation.
It's pat to say this. But that isn't going to change the fact the CS grad working as a waiter can literally count the CS H1-Bs being brought in, and the CS foreign exchange students getting those jobs he isn't.
"No, no, no, this is all good for the economy" doesn't seem like it can hold if native americans can't get jobs.
iprayiam3
2mo ago
Sure, what I'm saying is that this isn't itself a 'political constituency'- we aren't seeing protests, or advocacy groups that are explicitly around jobs for the young. There's no "Occupy Wallstreet", Tea party, or anything else. Rather, it's fractured and absorbed into the two other party's existing platforms - socialism on the left, and economic and immigration protectionism on the right.
On the left, this concern is subordinate to general immigration welfare, on the right it was kind of forefront, but has been backseated to the current... whatever.
iprayiam3
2mo ago
Snap (Chat) stock rises on AI motivated layoff
Now, I am surprised that Snap even still exists, and would assume that financial pressures would have forced down layoffs anyway. The article says about 1000 people are affected, which implies they have over 6000 employees. Wild.
But regardless, whether AI is an accelerant (I can't see how it's not) or a convenient excuse, we are going to continue seeing tech downsizing and stock jumping, encouraging more of it.
Meanwhile 43% of US grads are underemployed.
I am not going to bank on any hard predictions, I am not a great forecaster. But it does seem like things have already unravelled much more than the PMC and neoliberal middle class want to admit.
We will continue to have more Mandamis and more Trumps gaining popularity as alternatives to the stuck middle that seems to be held hostage. As long as keeping housing market, medicare, and 401ks proppped up for the older middle class are the primary concern, we're building pressure to the system.
To me, it seems wild to look at this and not want to shut all eonomic immigration down hard, (H1-Bs, etc). Yet somehow, the economic disenfranchisement hasn't quite reached that fever pitch. I am surprised (again I'm not a good predictor) that such an economically disenfranchised college graduate population (if that 43% is accurate) haven't solidified into any kind of a political movement yet. I can still understand (while disagreeing with) wanting to keep cheap laborers here to work manual labor. But the writing appears to be on the wall about the white collar squeeze that's already here.
Left unaddressed, I'm sure we'll get more Mandami's and socialism, with a leftish solution that is more about socialist subsidizing while promising immigrants can have it too; but we are also seeing massive fraud being uncovered in California, and Mandami claiming NYC is worse than broke; if both those fall apart, it will certainly undermine 'welfare' + immigration based solutions; and it seems like we will also have to get realistic economic opportunity protectionism as a major political block as well. But what do I know
I agree it’s a bad post for the reason you think it’s a bad post, but it’s not a gish gallop. Beyond that, even though the Gish Gallop proper is pointing at a real bad argument tactic , I hate it for the reasons demonstrated here. Incorrect accusations of Gish gallops are too common, and becomes its own bad argument itself.
Anyway, the problem with the bad post is that it is, as you point out a long post with multiple topics but no thesis or theme. Personally, post length is much less interesting as a heuristic of quality than having a strong thesis with some supporting material.
A pithy post with a strong thesis delivered in a few sentences or less is much better than some of the meandering mess of stream of consciousness. Unfortunately too many folks fancy themselves lil’ Scott Alexanders (who himself, while a great writer is overly long to his own detriment).
So you get people (1-2 who really over do it) writing cute little anecdotes and tedious stories with many words and little point beyond a vibe, and that’s treated wrongly as the gold standard.
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