iprayiam3
4d ago
I think so too, but how many AI washes before it really gets to people heads?
iprayiam3
4d ago
With that being said, im of the opinion that the "AI will take our jobs" schtick is slightly overstated
Maybe so; my post is explicitly agnostic to this. I am noting the toll of the social perception that is here today. Let’s assume it’s more than slightly overstated and straight FUD.
Still, right now articles in the MSM are openly pondering the possibility and whether there will massive economic fall out, “influencers” have viral doom posts, AI leaders go on popular podcasts and doom speculate, and then we see real world shake up’s at least being attributes to AI job displacement.
This is all happening today whether or not it’s based on hype, an my point is that this is going to affect decisions and cause aggregate mental and systemic stress in the immediate term, whether or not the tech pans out.
iprayiam3
4d ago
To be clear, my thesis is not whether this is a bubble or not, rather the fact that already today, the fear is in the water and causing a mental toll on people and will affect decision making. Even if it pops in a few months, 1. That’s enough time to compound effects and 2. Does the shift in perspective just disappear?
Consider AI videos. That is certainly going dissuade may people from going to Hollywood or from seeing filmmaking as a career. Even if AI video capability stops right here and never completes the full verisimilitude, it is a bus stopped right on the edge of a cliff, and the will have a psychic toll.
iprayiam3
4d ago
No, I don’t think it’s a fire Alarm. I’m not making a claim about the actual immediate affect of AI, but about the perception and how it is going mainstream. A few weeks with 1-2 headlines a week, and I think we get some level of self-fulfilling prophesy as the aggregate behaviors of worried citizens has a material effect
iprayiam3
5d ago
The psychic cost of AI is already here
Ugh, another AI post.
Today Block laid of about half its 10k employees for AI reasons and the sock soared. Was this pr cover for shedding bloat? Maybe. Elon famously slimmed down Dorsey’s crazy bloated twitter, no AI cover story needed.
But still, the market loved this and will demand more.
Earlier this week IBM stock dived on some Anthropic COBOL skill. Was this premature doom? Maybe. But still.
Let’s put aside whether AI will destroy white collar work in a short term time horizon. Despite the outcome, the idea that it very much might is already mainstream. It’s in the water. How much is the impending fear already shaping decisions? How much psychological weight is it already causing? How much will it accelerate
Certainly people are already changing career plans, college plans, savings strategies, family planning, etc. and it will only get much worse. New broadly available opportunities in AI are not going to open up faster than the fear of AI disruption will spread; we are already in a spiral.
Like many in these spaces, I’ve been worried for a while now, but now it’s going mainstream and will cause aggregate changes in behavior which will have their own effects on society and the economy regardless of the first order effects of AI disruption.
As a minor example, my wife has wanted to move for a few years now. Unfortunately, we’re chained to a 3% mortgage without enough income to achieve escape velocity beyond moving sideways to pay more. We’re finally in a spot this year where we could be a little indulgent and justify moving into a house the right size for a young family of 7, even if means taking on some unoptimized mortgage rate increase.
But I can’t imaging compounding that risk with AI disruption. The music could stop and never start again. Our marriage is good, but my resistance causes its own minor stress. How many marriages aren’t so good, break down over things like this?
How many people don’t get married altogether, etc.
Regardless if Covid was just a flu, the real world response to the percieved threat was transformative. Regardless if AI is just a fad…
You're missing the point of my post. I am emphatically not making any prediction about AIs first order effect on anything, including the market, much less an individul company's stock price. I am pointing to examples where it's already producing mainstream headlines, and (although early) seems to be quickening and broadening in it's reach. I am suggesting the depsite the realities, the costs of the narrative are surely already affecting real people.
Do you not thing there weren't CEOs out there who are udpdating on these stories? Hiring manager who update or hesitate on this news? White collar workers, who rethink their savings plans?
My whole point is not the effects of AI on the economy, which remains to be seen, but the effects of the anticipation of those effects on society, which is here today.
We don't have to agree on the CFR rate of Covid to note that schools are already closing, business trips are already being cancelled, toilet paper is already running out. 'Maybe wait a little and see how the CDC responds' is misunderstanding a comment that is specifically - regardless of how and whether this deepens and whether it's overblown, the effects are here and starting today.
You yourself gave an example of making a financial decision based on this news.
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