So... don't walk in a bad neighborhood if you don't want to be raped?
jeroboam
21d ago
Iran doesn’t have the logistics to mobilize large groups of soldiers to the front or to arm, equip, or feed them. It’s a mythical man month problem. Mobilizing more soldiers would actually lead to worse outcomes.
jeroboam
4mo ago
Average age of "World's Sexiest Man" in People is 38.
You attractiveness is almost certainly far higher now than at 23 (unless you went bald or fat).
Nevertheless, women are still tethered to age expectations, so a typical 23 year old isn't going to date you at age 38 even if she finds you attractive. But it does happen, a lot more than people like.
Yeah, it's weird. To me there doesn't seem to be that much difference between Ukraine and Russia. They're both poor, corrupt, Slavic-speaking countries that share a lot of culture. Sure, a European-leaning Ukraine is probably better than a Russia-leaning one, but it's not a huge difference.
But nationalism fucks with people's brains. No one wants to be ruled by a foreign race, even if that foreign race is only superficially different.
I'm reminded of how Bosnians, Serbians, and Croats all speak the exact same language but insist that they speak different languages. I've heard of courtroom trials where the defendant insists on getting a translator because, as a Bosnian, he can't understand Serbian. And then the translator just recites the exact same sentence back.
The differences between Ukraine and Russia are much smaller than the differences between Ukraine and Germany. And that's perhaps why nubile Ukrainian women vastly prefer to stay in Germany.
Yes, I believe the IDF's numbers. I think they say 103 of 110 ballistics were intercepted, and 100% of drones. Potentially the 7 that got through were let through deliberately as a cost/benefit calculation.
Iran remains completely incapable of affecting Israeli warfighting capability. They are not able to accurately target Israeli military installations.
They could, of course, overwhelm Iron Dome if they shot their wad all at once at densely populated areas.
jeroboam
1mo ago
here are emerging small / micro PE firms that will blow you out of the water because they don't need to finance the way a solo-preneur does.
Color me skeptical. While PE is rolling up certain kinds of businesses, they are not buying landscaping and tire repair shops at the $1 million level. They aren't going to buy anything that depends on the sweat equity of the owner.
Financing as a solo-preneur is not prohibitive. There are SBA loans. There is seller financing. You can do it for 10-20% down, maybe less.
it's EZ to buy a business" nonsense.
It's not "EZ" nor did I claim it was. That's why people don't do it. Most people would rather earn W2 income where someone else has all the responsibility and they just show up and drone.
jeroboam
7mo ago
Funny enough, I stated earlier on this week's thread that I only participate in hyperstitious slur cascades once 90% of people have joined. (versus Scott's 70%).
I stand by that here, and believe that lurch is used negatively nearly 100% of the time. We'll have to agree to disagree.
jeroboam
22d ago
Is the Iranian military truly this incompetent?
Yes. They look like clowns. Keep in mind this is a country which fought Iraq to a standstill for ten years, the same Iraq which the U.S. defeated in a week with a 1000-1 casualty ratio during the Gulf War.
It is going to be very tempting for Israel to attack their nuclear sites now after this demonstration of "strength" by the Iranians.
If the Israelis were smart, they might have let some of the missiles get through, lol. This is just too comical.
jeroboam
22d ago
Most likely you're right.
But I do believe that Israel is at least able to hurt Iran if they wanted to. The same is not true of Iran. Getting all your missiles shot down does not project the message of strength they intended.
jeroboam
1mo ago
As was mentioned, this clashes with Cesar Chavez Day
Holy shit! They are even dumber then I thought. Political malpractice.
Yes, I think this is clear evidence that Biden himself is a non-entity and that his staff is running the show. No one who has ever run for office would ever be so out of touch.
jeroboam
1mo ago
Here's my model.
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Normie opinion. AI is great because it will create jobs or something. Sam Altman actually tweeted this, which proves that he's just playing the game: "building massive-scale ai infrastructure, and a resilient supply chain, is crucial to economic competitiveness." So ask yourself. What would a 70-year old senator think. This is the normie opinion.
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Contrarian. Actually, maybe we shouldn't build AGI if we want to survive as a species.
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Meta-contrarian: Lol, don't you know nothing ever happens. Contrarians are always wrong. Let's listen to the normies.
jeroboam
6mo ago
I'd believe it. You're getting pushback but it's all in the form of "trust me bro".
I was watching a Youtube video from Jeff Nippard yesterday. He said it's possible for an untrained person to gain 15 pounds of lean muscle mass in a single MONTH using steroids.
So it's clear that the results of using steroids are simply miles above what you can get naturally.
Many people with good genetics will have decent (not elite) strength without working out. Steroids could take this to an even higher level. Low confidence but I would bet on a steroids user with 1 workout per month outperforming a non-steroids user with 3 workouts a week.
jeroboam
6mo ago
It's a very interesting meme that people have started referring to him as "Bibi". This seems new to me.
I think it's a clout chasing thing. It seemed to start a few years ago as a way for people to imply they know Netanyahu personally (or at least know people who do). Same as referring to Jeff Bezos as "Jeff" or William Shatner as "Bill".
jeroboam
7mo ago
At this point I have to ask, what are your numbers and where are you getting them from? The demands for rigor are all coming from one direction. What is the evidence that CICO diet messaging has any value in the long term? What's the evidence that you can lose weight with CICO and not experience hunger or lethargy?
CICO is the current bog standard advice. The results over the general population are miserable. I also want to know, do you even believe it works?
Let's say that you, as a trusted authority figure, are given the opportunity to design a 1 page infographic. This infographic will be distributed to everyone in your country who has expressed a sincere desire to lose weight. In 10 years, you will be measured by the BMI, mordibity, and diabetes level of your cohort. What do you put on your infographic? Do you really think CICO messaging will have any positive effect?
For one, all your competitors are limited-liability.
"Many" is a weasel-word here. "Many" could be 5 businesses in the whole country. While there are some some sole proprietorships, you would be a fool to own one. Serious businesses are not run that way. Sole proprietorships are for hobbyists and the naive.
jeroboam
7mo ago
Ah... I get it the objection. Yes, there is no problem with using the word lurch. Lurch, lurch, lurch. It's fine. Use it all you want.
But when you refer to the arguments of your political opponents in the same way that you are refer to the movements of a drunkard, then you are slurring them. "Swedish voters are drunkenly stumbling to the right" is just as bad. Lurch itself is not a bad word.
jeroboam
7mo ago
The pejorative meaning crowds out other meanings. If your movements were described as "lurching" you would not feel this as a neutral descriptor.
No one says, "the goalie lurched to his left, making an amazing save". They say "the goalie lurched to his left, tripping on his face". It is only used in a negative context.
In fact, I'll go further. A negative connotation matters more than the actual definition. There are tons of words that average people can't define but they know are "bad". Using these words to describe your outgroup reveals a bias.
jeroboam
8mo ago
Just remove the artificial restrictions to building new housing and the market will do the rest.
I used to believe that but I'm starting to have second thoughts. Look at square feet of housing per capita in the U.S.. It's never been higher. California is uniquely stupid of course, but there is lots of housing going up all over the country. But prices keep going up too. This despite interest rates which have made housing less affordable than ever.
Population growth? What population growth? California is shrinking and the U.S. has flat-lined. And yet still housing prices go up.
My personal thesis: Housing prices behave like a meme stonk. They go up because they go up. China proves how far this insanity can go before it hits a breaking point.
Housing is hard because no one knows what to do. On the other hand we KNOW how to stop drug use because we have examples from other countries. We don't have those examples.for housing. Until we get examples of what works it's just, like, your opinion man that building more houses will fix affordability.
jeroboam
8mo ago
Agree on all points. Preventing weight gain is easier than weight loss.
My guess is that the causes of obesity are multifactorial: sugar, seed oils, soft hyperpalatable foods, and chemicals all seem likely. Lack of exercise and collective loss of willpower can be ruled out safely, I think. I agree that Lithium hypothesis is not 100% explanatory, but the high altitude anomaly sill hasn't been adequately explained.
jeroboam
20d ago
If a plantation has 60% free workers and 40% slaves, that hardly excuses the plantation owner does it?
jeroboam
20d ago
Or comparing Belarus with Estonia.
Yeah, that's the fantasy. But it won't be the reality. Ukraine is a Slavic country that is culturally similar to Russia. Whether they are politically part of Russia that won't change.
Estonia, on the other hand, is demographically most similar to Finland. That's why they got rich and Ukraine didn't.
It's an issue of scale isn't it? The media treatment of Romney (binders full of women!!!) was stupid, but it never approached anything like what we're seeing now. It's like the difference between conventional and thermonuclear weapons.
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