jkf
5hr ago
Well his actual prediction (with the 50% caveat) would have been for 2019 -- so yeah, it's not really quibbling to say that he's wrong on the timeline. How wrong exactly is an open question, but that kind of the problem with timelines, yeah?
Timelines of exponential progress are very sensitive to the exact exponent.
Indeed, but the existence of an exponential term is very debatable in this case.
jkf
16hr ago
We evolved from creatures that hunted in bands and were probably murdered by our kin shortly after we could not longer provide for ourselves.
vs
I'm confident in a post work society we can conjure up meaningful games to substitute for the drudgery of what is currently required to upkeep society.
Hmmm...
jkf
16hr ago
Or something like this.
Sure, but does that thing talk? It's somewhat reasonable to argue that we have those things individually, but your guy seems to be expecting all of them as a unit?
Also 2011 + (8*1.5) would be 2023, at which point it would have been a much less reasonable argument...
jkf
16hr ago
he was the sort of person to wander into a random shady New Age magic shop and pick up some tacky shit with purported magic powers.
Wait, the guy literally finds the wish-granting thingee in a creepy shop? That seems like a pretty strong monkey's paw callout in and of itself...
"fiction of my imagination", "state of nature"; potato, potahto.
We are only a hundred years out from the state of nature in the west; swathes of the world are more or less still there -- I don't think we can take for granted that backsliding is impossible. Especially if we are postulating something as bizarre as non-human superintelligence.
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