jkf
20hr ago
If it's possible for someone to get away with two boxing and get both boxes, and you can put yourself in that scenario, then you can win by two boxing.
Let's put a number on it -- what successful prediction rate would Omega need to have for you to consider taking both boxes? Depends how badly you need a thousand bucks I guess?
jkf
1d ago
Too late for voting, too early for shooting -- we're at an awkward moment, but it will work itself out one way or another...
jkf
3d ago
I understand that that's the story -- I just don't believe it. (as with the earlier story that you are particularly likely to die a horrible death from sweeping out your cupboards without putting on a bunny suit first)
jkf
5d ago
It's been around since forever in western North America -- endemic in deer mice IIRC? This new one is a different strain I guess, but now that I think about it the mouse droppings thing was a very early nudge towards me being radicalized by public health morons.
"You need to be Extremely Concerned about cleaning up mouse poop in your cabin" -- which you and everyone else has been doing on a yearly basis since Time Immemorial, riiiight...
I can't be arsed to do it, but it seems pretty trivial to plug whatever parameters you like into some simulation code and let it run a few million times? Some cases you will take one box but the alien predicted wrong and you get nothing; sometimes you take two and he was wrong and you get 1M + 1K. So long as he is mostly correct I don't see how the EV is not strongly driven by the cases where you pick the mystery box and get $1M -- no loss of free will required.
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