justmotteingaround
No bio...
User ID: 2002
justmotteingaround
5mo ago
Avoiding those bad things requires agency, and women demonstrate more of it than men in those contexts. This is true around the world. In general, males show greater impulsivity in both humans and lab animals. Nobody has argued for a broad societal reconsideration of whether men are adults. People would laugh that argument out of the room.
Is there a problem with women claiming a sexual encounter was consensual, and arguing for a take-back some time later? Absolutely. Does it follow that we should seriously consider whether women are adults? No. Thats insane.
justmotteingaround
5mo ago
Yeah I agree with your assessment quite a lot. My point is that extrapolating these outlying male deficits in self-control/agency all the way to questioning if society can treat men as adults is absurd.
justmotteingaround
8mo ago
Unless I'm missing something Skrimetti is just about banning / age limits on gender medicine. I don't see how it's qualitatively different from banning heroin or other recreational drugs.
I think I've been pretty clear that entire reason I'm against Skrmetti prevailing has noting - whatsoever - to do with banning flawed gender medicine. The precedent it sets can be argued in favor of the next Bad Thing(tm). Just sue the current bad thing for torts.
justmotteingaround
11mo ago
Serena wasn't anywhere close to dominating her sport
You may want to look into this. She has numerous career and individual superlatives, and won nearly half of all grand slams for 10 years straight.
justmotteingaround
5mo ago
Sometimes you can just do stuff.
That was my main take away, and probably where all the substance lies. That, and pondering how much time Petro wasted penning his reply. 20 minutes?
I highly recommend giving it a read. Its fairly beautiful. A chiding message from a particular kind of nationalist/ humanist who clearly thinks highly of himself. Delusional in parts, but oh so delicious to read knowing that all Petros hot air was rendered into farts when he capitulated a few hours later.
justmotteingaround
5mo ago
But if you entertain one groups racial grievances you have to entertain all groups racial grievances. That door gets shoved wide open. Yes, in more recent times some whites have been vilified and discriminated against in some awful cases. Welcome to the club. Now lets slam that door in Ibram Kendis face, dismantle such programs (as Trump recent initiated), and move towards a legally colorblind, merit based society. Organizing around race mistakes the map for the territory in most cases. The political needs of whites aren't inherent to them being white. Not all whites are equally susceptible to opioid addiction or welfare dependency. Whiteness certainly doesn't explain who those people are. And whoever they are, they have agency and thus responsibility. Government help is not out of the question, but skin color is a bad heuristic. And keep in mind that all this grievance is in the face of increasingly median prosperity, while bring the most decisive voting block, over-represented in positions of power.
justmotteingaround
11mo ago
Its wild that an algorithm can predict crime before it happens.
justmotteingaround
5mo ago
This is a common critique, but it is absolutely crazymaking. I don't intend to jump down your throat, so bare with me.
When a Christian says "I think gay sex is sin" and points the Bible, we don't sit around and questions if that's really why they don't condone homosexuality. We know why the Westboro Baptists say "God hates fags". Its not mysterious. We know why the Mennonites build barns, drive buggies, and live in their communities. They will tell us. We know why Mao opposed the bourgeoisie, and did his thing. We know why Hitler did his thing. We know why Spanish Inquisitors did their thing. Nobody questions it.
But religiously motivated Islamic terrorism seems to beget an isolated demand for rigor no matter how much it makes sense of otherwise bizarre behavior.
Incredulity doesn't necessarily follow from the actions of even a mass murderer. That has never been the case. Moreover, Bin Laden was not a lone, isolated actor. He was part of a wider movement, an ideology, with a long history of beliefs, documented in ancient texts, interpreted in the writings of modern Imams and ulama. His stated beliefs totally explains his actions, not only in war, but also in life. His actions and explanations were held consistent for decades. They make sense of the actions of millions upon millions of people (ie the Taliban, ISIS, the Muslim brotherhood).
Bin laden was first and foremost a deeply religious person. It totally explains every facet of his entire adult life. The Taliban is likewise deeply motivated by religion. So is ISIS. They tell us. They can trace their reasoning through modern scholarship of ancient texts in the exact same way as modern priests can legitimately claim that homosexuality is a sin under Christianity.
My argument is that if you take the perspective that the beliefs are sincere and literal, everything starts to make sense. I mean to seriously convince you of this. Charlie Hebdo, ISIS, the Taliban, and 9/11 - to name a few examples - become no less mysterious than an Amish person using a horse-drawn plough in 2025. Thousands of people will spell out in excruciating detail why they do what they do. As Dabiq printed, these actions are completely Islamic (to some minority of 1.8B Muslims), and people saying otherwise are peddling a false narrative.
justmotteingaround
5mo ago
Its not dead and there legal challenges were always going to happen. For the curious, the tweets in question were from this summer.
“You could not pay me to marry outside of my ethnicity,”
“Normalize Indian hate” in reference to a post noting the prevalence of people from India in Silicon Valley
“Just for the record, I was racist before it was cool"
“I would not mind at all if Gaza and Israel were both wiped off the face of the Earth.”
Not sure how that last one is conceivably racist. The now-deleted account was @nullllptr but previously was called @marko_elez - the staffers name.
justmotteingaround
5mo ago
My guess is the relevance is here:
2019 Background: PEPFAR (President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief) has used millions of tax dollars in a campaign to circumcise Africa under the guise of reducing HIV risks, based on some very controversial studies.
Links to a blog of an activists who writes books and makes documentaries to end circumcision. IME the intactivist bunch make radical claims well beyond anything the evidence supports, and bring up circumcision whenever possible in hope of ending what just might be the most barbaric practice mankind has ever conceived.
Do I support unnecessary circumcision of children? No, not really. But every time I look at the evidence, I can't see any reason to get worked up about the topic. I hope the bizarre practice dies out.
justmotteingaround
5mo ago
I can grant that, and the original hypothesis still doesn't follow. We're talking about an entire category of people, only some of whom demonstrate lower agency in at least one area. Men are less able to control their drinking and gambling, but we wouldn't consider all men to be children. Its the same in the Pavlovich et.al cases. Some women claim they can't meaningfully consent to sex even when they do. They're insane and a moral hazard. I'm not gonna play in that framework. Whether they like it or not, they're adults.
justmotteingaround
7mo ago
Humas seem wired for such entrapment. It pattern matches pretty well to various cults, especially those that grew out of EST Training and its numerous offshoots. A charismatic visionary puts a new skin on old ideas, finds seekers, cordons them off, messes with their brain chemistry (though drugs, fasting, sleep deprivation, conflict, sex) Intragroup adherence is amplified though group activities, financial and relationship ties (which are sometimes totalizing). This pattern pervades Scientology, EST, The Landmark Institute, Osho, original Bikram Yoga, the Peoples Temple, Nexium; probably some companies, families, and churches. Landmark (which grew out of EST), appears to have found a stable payoff matrix. Good for them. As a rule of thumb, if you're invited to The Esalen Institute, you're 1% more likely to be joining a cult. If you hear the word ayahuasca weekly, 2%. If you're suddenly contemplating whether water has a memory, the importance of Ley lines, or past life regression, 50%. If half your discretionary incomes goes to this new group, 200%. When the leader is fucking your wife, you're probably in a cult.
What are your broad thoughts on testosterone? I've long been curious for various reasons. It seems to me like a reasonable tradeoff to a healthy, ageing person, but I haven't looked into it too much.
justmotteingaround
7mo ago
I think it'll be a continuation of the polarization arc, guided by the incentives of profitable content. Obama was a Marxist Kenyan and we got the Tea Party. Trump was Hitler and we got Wokeist nonsense. Election conspiracies and QAnon notwithstanding, I think Jan 6th was peak derangement. Biden was more honestly criticized than either Trump or Obama because it simply wasn't profitable to publish election conspiracies for 4 years. Bidens brain really was mush. He really was hiding. The border really did get worse. Crime really was being minimized. Trotting out ye olde "this president controls gas prices" chestnut was practically quaint.
Conservatives are dominating media. The MAGA narrative and style really are popular. Liberals will have to find or wait for a narrative and delivery that actually resonates. People are sick of race and trans obsession and a style of condescension. Harping on these issues isn't nearly as profitable as it was in 2016. For the last four years it was hard to get rich running ads on dem narratives. It was much easier to get rich harping on US foreign expenditures, inflation, the plight of the working man, the plight of men, crime, and just straight up duking on dem talking points. The anti-Trump machine is comparatively weak right now. It'll have to pivot or die as the well that pays the bills is running dry. Orange man bad will still work to a degree, but nothing like in 2016.
justmotteingaround
8mo ago
If a weather forecast says there is a 50% chance of rain tomorrow, and it does not rain, was the forecast wrong? If a betting market says there's only a 40% of rain, and it doesn't rain, did the betting market crush the weather forecast?
justmotteingaround
8mo ago
Does anyone know if there are models that take into account sentiment analysis (ie ingest lots of data from TV viewership, FB,YT, comment sections, clean it, weight it, etc)? This is how I'd solve the game for betting purposes.
Just by eyeballing it, Trump seems to have a massive advantage. Trump-positive yt vids are more viewed and have a better like/dislike ratio than any vaguely Dem positive video. The top comments are often mostly pro Trump. A large percentage of MSM TV coverage is pro Trump, FB used to lean more pro Trump, Twitter is operated by a Trump fanatic. Polling leans old, this leans younger. The comment section of NYT, WaPo are obviously anti Trump, but these are comparatively microscopic players. What does themotte think, and what might I not be seeing?
justmotteingaround
8mo ago
what precedent is it setting?
As I stated, legislators can eschew medical/expert consensus for anything they please. Imagine the scientific consensus states that natal males in womens contact sports poses an injury risk. Well, Srkmetti would provide precedent that elected representatives can ignore that consensus. Is mifepristone safe? Thats now up for legislators to decide on their own. Does MDMA provide a therapeutic benefit to veterans with PTSD? Etc.
you should be arguing for the total abolishing of the regulatory state.
No, I want both internal and external experts to study things without their findings being handwaved away by politicians with an ideological agenda. Or course in this scenario, I don't trust the APA, AMA, and WPATH view on gender medicine. But experts will be mugged by reality far faster than case law. The cass report led to a reversal in the UK; science slowed down gender medicine in the Nordic countries. It takes far too long to get bunk science out of the legal system because the legal system is unscientific; relies on case law (eg bite mark analysis). In general, trust experts more than politicians because experts are responsible for the modern world.
justmotteingaround
8mo ago
But society does need genuinely trustworthy, credible institutions. Trumps has been going on mostly comedy podcasts. They might be bigger and better than the dying MSM, but they're not a solution for what is needed.
justmotteingaround
11mo ago
The justification for the high costs will be similarly analogous. For the death penalty, you want to execute as few innocent people as possible. In principle, no innocent people would ever be executed. In real world practice, a legal death penalties always puts innocent people do death in rare circumstances (governments are incompetent, Juries composed of Everymen, etc).
Likewise, the real world of deportations are far more complex than a simply wishing that the correct people are deported in the correct way. Laws are frequently squishy. A few million cases a year are clear, and people are quickly deported (roughly 10k per day). The others have to be argued. Removing barriers before understanding why they are there is an understandable impulse, but a dubious policy.
Granted, in both circumstances activists are incentivized to run up costs. That seems like more a feature than a bug. The US government is set up to protect people from the government.
justmotteingaround
11mo ago
At what point will the cultures, artists, and creativity of Europe be crushed under a mass of a billion immigrants, a throng of unproductive mouths to feed?
I thought this was going to be an anticapitalist screed until it took this turn. Mass immigration poses issues, but I fail to connect it to boring, incompetent, commodified art.
The olympics have become a famously ill-advised production. The number of cities bidding to host gradually fell to just two in 2024: Paris and LA. The IOC already awarded 2028 to LA over concerns there might not be any interest in a few years. Broadcast revenue is flatish, but broadcast hours are way up.
justmotteingaround
3mo ago
My whole point is people hesitance to even ask questions. Maybe Soros did everything you claim. None of that is my point.
As you stated, Musk has overt power. He bought a SM site, which he uses spread narratives and skew peoples perception of reality to a preferred political end, and has been appointed to directly audit the government, after being the by far the largest donor. Why on Earth should we be allergic to asking questions now?
As I noted, its probably too early to tell, but I'm mystified by the lack questioning given the power. Musk is one of the largest individual beneficiaries of government money. Thats notable. A $400M contract to buy armored Teslas appeared out of nowhere, only to be canceled. The Biden admin authorized a 450k plan to look into a similar EV scheme. Weird. DOGE has made some errors publicly, always overstating their findings. Okay, mistakes happen. They tried to make DOGE un-FOIA-able for 10 years. Whats that about? Practically overnight the media narrative became that USAID is some sort of scam that needs to be shuttered immediately. This came on faster than COVID-19 in Google Trends. How very odd.
justmotteingaround
5mo ago
I'm highly skeptical of those absolutes, but that's irrelevant. The problems of a murderous, totalitarian, intransigent ideology are vastly understated, and wildly misunderstood. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills!!
Concerningly, it took a lot of digging to unearth some of the following highly influential, well-known, and explanatory quotations. They remove so much of the "mystery" as to what Islam means to hundreds of million of people.
Islamic World Front - 1998:
"On that basis [of jihad], and in compliance with Allah's order, we issue the following fatwa to all Muslims: The ruling to kill the Americans and their allies -- civilians and military -- is an individual duty for every Muslim who can do it in any country in which it is possible to do it... We -- with Allah's help -- call on every Muslim who believes in Allah and wishes to be rewarded to comply with Allah's order to kill the Americans and plunder their money wherever and whenever they find it. We also call on Muslim ulema, leaders, youths, and soldiers to launch the raid on Satan's U.S. troops and the devil's supporters allying with them..." -
Bin Laden, 'Letter To The American People' - 2002:
"...jihad against the tyrants and the aggressors is a form of great worship in our religion. It is more precious to us than our fathers and sons. Thus, our jihad against you is worship and your killing us is a testimony."
Bin Laden 'Letter to America' - 2005:
"The first thing that we are calling you to is Islam... complete submission to His Laws; and of the discarding of all the opinions, orders, theories and religions... It is the religion of Jihad in the way of Allah so that Allah's Word and religion reign Supreme... You are the nation who, rather than ruling by the Shariah of Allah in its Constitution and Laws, choose to invent your own laws as you will and desire. You separate religion from your policies, contradicting the pure nature which affirms Absolute Authority to the Lord and your Creator."
Dabiq Magazine 'Why We Hate You and Why We Fight Your" - 2016:
"One would think that the average Westerner, by now, would have abandoned the tired claim that the actions of the mujahideen—who have repeatedly stated their goals, intentions, and motivations—don’t make sense... There are exceptions among the disbelievers, no doubt, people who will unabashedly declare that jihad and the laws of the shari’a—as well as everything else deemed taboo by the Islam-is-a-peaceful-religion crowd—are in fact completely Islamic, but they tend to be people with far less credibility who are painted as a social fringe, so their voices are dismissed and a large segment of the ignorant masses continues believing the false narrative... We hate you, first and foremost, because you are disbelievers... we have been commanded to fight the disbelievers until they submit to the authority of Islam, either by becoming Muslims, or by paying jizya... We hate you because your secular, liberal societies permit the very things that Allah has prohibited... What’s important to understand here is that although some might argue that your foreign policies are the extent of what drives our hatred, this particular reason for hating you is secondary... we will never stop hating you until you embrace Islam."
Che Guevaras purported last words:
"I know you've come to kill me. Shoot, coward, you are only going to kill a man"
justmotteingaround
5mo ago
That's kind of how I interpret it, but as written its nonsensical as is it misunderstands or misuses the term 'atheism' at a very basic level. Atheism doesn't necessitate any specific moral stance. Moreover, some religious are atheistic.
justmotteingaround
5mo ago
A central part of being an effective leader is allaying opposition to actually get things done. Blaming people he failed to lead makes no sense unless everyone is a good leader, people just don't listen. Despite the massive debt, Trump didn't even start the wall he promised. He won the popular vote this time, and seems better prepared and better supported. I expect it to be better than before, which is a low bar.
justmotteingaround
7mo ago
If you feel consigned to your home after sunset, you're more likely to need psychiatric medication than moving boxes. On average, people are moving to cities, and aren't afraid of the dark. I've never known a city dwelling woman to carry any means of protection. Fertility rates have remained about 10% lower in large metro areas than rural areas for over a decade. Not being able to imagine something 10% less frequent is caused by a broken imagination.
I'm happy with this EO but I think calling Trump an idiot who couldn't govern was reasonable during his first term. He spent like a drunken sailor on non Covid stuff (more than double Biden!) to purchase a tax cut, a trade war, remain in Mexico, Space Force, and he warp sped a vaccine. Negotiated with the Taliban to end the war. No new wars. Pressured NATO to up the price of admission. And as an indefatigable culture warrior, he got the ball rolling on a vibe shift. Okay, all great.
But no wall. Lots of illegals regardless. No Trumpcare. Domestic manufacturing barely budged. People in his orbit regularly went to prison, were disbarred, or quit. The trade deficit remained the same. No critical infrastructure. No strategic industrial policy. Covid was a disaster despite him publicly saying it'd be gone in a few months, while saying on private tape he knew it wouldn't be. Initiated the stimulus stairway to inflation. Total of 8.4T added to the deficit (also double Biden). Nationwide riots under his watch. Historic amounts of golf. Told Brad Raffensperger 'I'm informing you that certifying the current GA votes is illegal, so certifying them will cause big problems for you' thus igniting the embers of J6. All this while The Blob remained unaffected.
I think its fair to ask for better, and notice that Trump 1.0 wasn't the most effective leader. Trump 2.0 could deliver, but a victory lap now is retro causal. Trump is energetic and with it for a 78 year old, and JD Vance is sharp and hardworking. Here is to hoping for a golden age!
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