justmotteingaround
No bio...
User ID: 2002
justmotteingaround
7mo ago
Indeed. To take an easy case, I have to constantly admonish secular people have to such empathy and magnanimity towards religious people. Many secular people consider religious folk mentally diseased and morally defective. This is not meant to be insulting. I just take ethics seriously. It would be easy for me decide that all religious people are intellectually and morally deranged; a lost cause. They routinely claim certainty about something I know they are not certain. Almost always they were indoctrinated about what to believe, and then not to question it. Case closed, right?
But that's not the whole story. I know that religion does so much good for so many people. I know what spiritual yearning and salvation feels like. Order. Comfort. Community. Humility that this world is much bigger than we can even begin to understand. To realize that the purpose life - no matter who is controlling it - is to love whoever is around to be loved. To realize that one friend is all one needs in order to be well supplied with friendship. Imaginary friends should count, too.
So yeah, I think being religious means something is mentally wrong with you. But don't let what I have written tell on me. I - the author of this post - actually, sincerely, earnestly, unsarcastically and unironically, have empathy for religious people.
But this isn't about religion.
This is about empathy. Not pity. Not sympathy. And certainly not about condoning actions one finds immoral. Empathy isn't best derived from an analogous personal experience. Thoughts can overcome emotion. As a straight guy, I too find depictions of men blowing and butt fucking one another to be inherently gross. According to John Haidt, this is fairly normal as when some straight men are show such images, areas in brain related to disgust become active. However, I have the analogous feelings of love and lust to fall back on. When a gay person says "I want that too" my emotions are easily overcome. When it comes to trans related issues I'm more at a loss. I have hated myself in one way or another, but never in a way that altering my outward appearance would be useful. I'm quite open to experience, so when a trans person tells me they want to be trans on their own time, I have to felt sense or moral or ethical implication, and am willing to make reasonable accommodations in kind. However, when trans activists make a religion out of woke, I can delineate what and is or is not a reasonable accommodation in kind. Importantly, I can still have empathy for the terminally woke. It probably is genuinely distressing to think the Cass Report is bigoted pseudoscience, or that there is some sort of trans genocide, as is often hysterically claimed. Empathy has a role to play in destroying bad ideas.
justmotteingaround
7mo ago
The election doesn't effect the argument not to agitate against Swift. If it was a bad idea prior, its a bad idea now.
justmotteingaround
4mo ago
My first thought is that a studio is allowed to pursue any business plan they wish. I don't think this will work out well, but I'm not a gamer. AFAIKT, this game is known for is historical accuracy, and OP is underselling the extent of the about-face towards inaccurate propaganda in the newer version. (according to a new reddit thread, with screenshots and explanations here.
justmotteingaround
5mo ago
So to be fair, I went back and gave a light read to the two linked posts and threw 5 minutes of googling at the results. AFAIKT, the posts contain mostly hysteria, confusion, and misunderstandings. The Mogen Clip is very much around. Complication rates in US setting for serious adverse events is somewhere around 1/1M, or 700/1M for any serious event - usually not enough skin removal, leading to a repeat procedure. Complication rates go up 10-20X 1 year after birth. Any complication, including excess bleeding, 2%.
The PEPFAR program seems like it is regulating itself on the cautionary principle, and winding down circumcision efforts (despite the fact that Hillary Clinton gave PEPFAR $40M in tax dollars OMG!!! Not Hillary!!)
I saw language about "high numbers" of "botched" circumcisions. But I didn't see data or definitions. Maybe I missed it, but given the insanely low serious complication rate in the US, I'm highly suspicious. I imagine this voluntary up to 15 tanner-3 circumcision program has a higher relative rate, but probably a low absolute rate. This is just a guess. Circumcision in Africa are (were?) complicated by dint of being rolled out in AIDS endemic areas (1/3rd of adult male population in 2000 iirc), so its at least plausible that such programs, having performed tens of millions of circumcisions, prevented hundreds or thousands of horrid deaths from HIV/aids. But who knows? They seem to be pulling back in 2019 (when AIDS meds were quite good).
In case its necessary to reiterate, I'm against circumcision.
justmotteingaround
7mo ago
Its worth keeping in mind the pitfalls of the media landscape. A fund manger posts screenshots of an AP article to 1.5M followers, with the incisive commentary "wait, what?!" What does the payoff matrix look like in this environment?
On one hand, information is spread widely and quickly. Great! On the other hand, I have an aunt who has long told me that Hitler put fluoride in the water to shrink the pineal glad of the populace, reducing their creativity and making them obey. She teaches anatomy and physiology at a community college, and loves listening to Coast To Coast on the AM radio. Crank it up fuckers!
But what does the article say? Well, the AP reported on this "long awaited study" two months ago. We didn't find this out this until quite recently. However, it seemingly only applies to 0.6% of US water systems, and then again only to children and pregnant women. For adults, more study is needed. The 300 page report was done by the National Toxicology Program, part of the Department of Health and Human Services. In 2015 Federal authorities revised their recommended level of fluoridation down from 1.2 mg/L to 0.07mg/L. This study pertains to levels of fluoridation of 1.5mg/L and above. How much above? I don't know, but the WHO currently thinks that 1.5mg/L is safe. The EPA actually mandates that water systems contain less than 4mg/L, the impetus in that case being fluorosis. This study extends research done in China in 2006 about cognitive effects of fluoride - naturally occurring and otherwise - and wait, what!? This is fucking booooooring. A bunch of nerds debating a the effects of less than one PPM of fluoride in a country that already recommends half the level studied? Fuck that. Give me Hitler. Give me chemtrails. Inject me with autism. Lets blast some Coast to Coast on the AM radio!
justmotteingaround
7mo ago
I'm pretty comfortable and drink liters of tap water daily. Always have. I always saw drinking bottled water at home as low class coded, like buying furniture on credit, or keeping a cc balance. Who pays that much for water? Tap water where I grew up and live has been pristine. Superfluous bottled water at events, or premium branded water is the real divide in America. I'd bet that anywhere in the developed world the the risk adjusted ROI for drinking bottled water is massively negative barring govt alerts (ie blue baby).
justmotteingaround
7mo ago
If a weather forecast says there is a 50% chance of rain tomorrow, and it does not rain, was the forecast wrong? If a betting market says there's only a 40% of rain, and it doesn't rain, did the betting market crush the weather forecast?
justmotteingaround
8mo ago
hahah no I think Zorbas dedication is unimpeachable. This fleshes out what I gathered from perusing the megathread about the move. A Seattle sub mod chimed in about getting new admin attention over milquetoast issues like homelessness and trans stuff. I suppose the chilling effect was bad enough, though I do think they should have forced the admins to kick us off with an escape plan in place. On one hand, I have a very open to any mere speech, but I can well understand why a private company wouldn't want themotte on reddit even if I think its the pinnacle of moderated free speech. The move did what I expected, but it was perhaps inevitable.
justmotteingaround
7mo ago
Nothing was more "move fast and break things" than entire neighborhoods of kids riding their bike behind "the fog truck" spraying DDT everywhere.
justmotteingaround
8mo ago
please engage with the substance instead of doing so with mockery.
Fair. As I've said here a few times, I loath safteyism. I find the hypothetical threat scenario so implausible that mentioning it screams of a persecution complex. I should have engaged more substantively.
I was against the move from reddit. I actually never saw a full explanation of why that was necessary. I recall a discussion of "((( )))" use trigging and auto-admin response). Iirc zorba said a full explanation would be forthcoming, but I missed it. I could be misremembering and no explanation was offered, but I remain open to one. That said, I thought having a backup motte was a good idea.
justmotteingaround
8mo ago
Grading Trump on a curve as, say, Ben Shapiro says he does, does not exclude dubious media hysterics over Trump. I think the shrinking institutional media leans hysterical while claiming objectivity, while new media tends to grade him on a curve, and simply says thats what they do.
justmotteingaround
4mo ago
Perhaps it's unpopular because its the "WMD's" of the Russian invasion. Do Ukrainian and US actions/ provocations best explain the Russian invasion compared to belligerent revanchism and (ethno? lingo?) nationalism in the minds of Russian leaders? Or the significant ethnic/language/regional divide within Ukraine itself? Putin has stated his revanchist worldview in stark terms, but his casus belli was denazification? The Russia-supported conflict in Donbas killed around 15k people, the invasion has killed ballpark 1M. Stated another way: has the Russian state really pursued its own survival, or an ideological project? Just like the WMD in Iraq its probably a bit of both, but I can't fault people for thinking its mostly the latter.
justmotteingaround
4mo ago
In his own words, Bin laden repeatedly states his theological concerns as his sole justification for both wanting to kill Iraqis and Americans (esp in his 96 and 98 fatwas). He quotes scripture. His modern followers do likewise. They think Non Muslims should not be in "Muslim lands" unless they pay the tax. That's what they're upset about. Not geopolitics - but pissing-off the creator of the universe. They have stated this stated explicitly, many times, pointing to scripture, quoting specific passages, getting ascent from Imams and ulama. Bin Laden viewed the Baathists as apostates. That was is issue with them.
If you take the view that all these movements are sincere religious movements and really believe what they say, everything starts makes sense. The same goes for Hamas.
I posted bin ladens fatwas and writings recently, as well as this, which seems apt:
Dabiq Magazine 'Why We Hate You and Why We Fight You - 2016:
"One would think that the average Westerner, by now, would have abandoned the tired claim that the actions of the mujahideen—who have repeatedly stated their goals, intentions, and motivations—don’t make sense... There are exceptions among the disbelievers, no doubt, people who will unabashedly declare that jihad and the laws of the shari’a—as well as everything else deemed taboo by the Islam-is-a-peaceful-religion crowd—are in fact completely Islamic, but they tend to be people with far less credibility who are painted as a social fringe, so their voices are dismissed and a large segment of the ignorant masses continues believing the false narrative... We hate you, first and foremost, because you are disbelievers... we have been commanded to fight the disbelievers until they submit to the authority of Islam, either by becoming Muslims, or by paying jizya... We hate you because your secular, liberal societies permit the very things that Allah has prohibited... What’s important to understand here is that although some might argue that your foreign policies are the extent of what drives our hatred, this particular reason for hating you is secondary... we will never stop hating you until you embrace Islam."
justmotteingaround
5mo ago
I'm highly skeptical of those absolutes, but that's irrelevant. The problems of a murderous, totalitarian, intransigent ideology are vastly understated, and wildly misunderstood. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills!!
Concerningly, it took a lot of digging to unearth some of the following highly influential, well-known, and explanatory quotations. They remove so much of the "mystery" as to what Islam means to hundreds of million of people.
Islamic World Front - 1998:
"On that basis [of jihad], and in compliance with Allah's order, we issue the following fatwa to all Muslims: The ruling to kill the Americans and their allies -- civilians and military -- is an individual duty for every Muslim who can do it in any country in which it is possible to do it... We -- with Allah's help -- call on every Muslim who believes in Allah and wishes to be rewarded to comply with Allah's order to kill the Americans and plunder their money wherever and whenever they find it. We also call on Muslim ulema, leaders, youths, and soldiers to launch the raid on Satan's U.S. troops and the devil's supporters allying with them..." -
Bin Laden, 'Letter To The American People' - 2002:
"...jihad against the tyrants and the aggressors is a form of great worship in our religion. It is more precious to us than our fathers and sons. Thus, our jihad against you is worship and your killing us is a testimony."
Bin Laden 'Letter to America' - 2005:
"The first thing that we are calling you to is Islam... complete submission to His Laws; and of the discarding of all the opinions, orders, theories and religions... It is the religion of Jihad in the way of Allah so that Allah's Word and religion reign Supreme... You are the nation who, rather than ruling by the Shariah of Allah in its Constitution and Laws, choose to invent your own laws as you will and desire. You separate religion from your policies, contradicting the pure nature which affirms Absolute Authority to the Lord and your Creator."
Dabiq Magazine 'Why We Hate You and Why We Fight Your" - 2016:
"One would think that the average Westerner, by now, would have abandoned the tired claim that the actions of the mujahideen—who have repeatedly stated their goals, intentions, and motivations—don’t make sense... There are exceptions among the disbelievers, no doubt, people who will unabashedly declare that jihad and the laws of the shari’a—as well as everything else deemed taboo by the Islam-is-a-peaceful-religion crowd—are in fact completely Islamic, but they tend to be people with far less credibility who are painted as a social fringe, so their voices are dismissed and a large segment of the ignorant masses continues believing the false narrative... We hate you, first and foremost, because you are disbelievers... we have been commanded to fight the disbelievers until they submit to the authority of Islam, either by becoming Muslims, or by paying jizya... We hate you because your secular, liberal societies permit the very things that Allah has prohibited... What’s important to understand here is that although some might argue that your foreign policies are the extent of what drives our hatred, this particular reason for hating you is secondary... we will never stop hating you until you embrace Islam."
Che Guevaras purported last words:
"I know you've come to kill me. Shoot, coward, you are only going to kill a man"
justmotteingaround
7mo ago
This is fascinating. I would have remained blind to it otherwise, so thanks. I wonder how many other religious people feel this way. I have learned to put conscious effort into empathizing with people taking their religion as literally true. It explains so much, and has changed me for the better. However, I never considered that religious beliefs themselves would be, seem, feel, etc. like they were not a conscious choice.
For example, I prefer exclusively women over men when it comes to having sex. No argument exists which could convince me to sexually prefer men (any more than there is a convincing argument that I prefer eating poo over ice-cream). I'm just not wired to prefer those things. However, I could be convinced to become a Christian or Muslim or Flat Earther or 9/11 truther, or whatever. My non-theism remains a choice. Perhaps I'm misunderstanding something or this is all semantics, hinging on free will or something.
Are deeply held religious beliefs experienced the same way as be deeply held beliefs like murdering random people is wrong, or the Sun is driven by fusion, or the govt shouldn't tax unrealized gains, or the US is a great country, etc. How are religious beliefs experienced differently?
justmotteingaround
7mo ago
Another case of why having principles sucks. The state offered him a sweetheart deal and then reneged. The worst person you know was a darling, but then a victim, of the state. The former doesn't inveigh on the latter as it would enshrine a terrible precedent.
his career is effectively over.
This would be interesting to bet on. It amazes me how people can eek out public careers for decades despite being vile. How many millions would tune in to a reality TV show featuring Smollett, now or in the future? We know he's shameless.
justmotteingaround
5mo ago
I'm a bit confused. Who am I understating and misunderstanding? Just let who have what?
In case I read you right: I could go a on lengthy anti-Israel screed, especially regarding the settlers, their growing government support, and how the settlements function in or around Area C, or whatever. Some crazies - probably numbing in the hundreds of thousands, if not more - faithfully believe a maximalist, forceful, Biblical entitlement to Israel.
My post intended to highlight why basically the entire globe is subject to eternal warfare until every person on the planet submits to a version of Islam that makes sense to hundreds of millions of Muslims (and perhaps less; hard to say)
The former isn't compatible with an easy path to peace in Israel, the latter isn't compatible with civilization. Its relevant to OP because I think the main challenge in Israel is killing - or at best reforming - the latter idea. Far too many people fail to recognize its a challenge to begin with. Currently, the numbers are in favor of simply ignoring the settlers, but the power structure in Israel is not. The ideologies of the settlers pose a problem too.
justmotteingaround
8mo ago
This is kind of how it worked at the top levels of online poker in ~2016ish. Various groups spent 100kish each to build analysis software years before a dev released a version for sale. Top regs eventually pooled resources to build GTO bots, prompting top poker sites to learn how to ban them. For prediction markets the stats are way different (ie fewer trials, lots of noise) and a 10% edge wouldn't translate translate into a lot of money unless you could bet many millions, plus the variance would be insane. With active trading (ie more trials) I could see decent profits, but I don't know what liquidity looks like.
justmotteingaround
8mo ago
Given that the election is a dead heat, the House is split and by thin margins, and a conservative leaning SC, perhaps there isn't any non-conformity so much as an extremely common difference of opinion. I'd wager that R's win elections because approximately half of voters are R's.
justmotteingaround
8mo ago
Thats why having principles sucks. It will be an improvement in this one case. But the expansion of legislative caprice can be broadly interpreted for a long time. There are equally useful alternative toys of power to exact justice. Torts maintain a comparatively narrower scope, and stay within the realm of liability.
justmotteingaround
11mo ago
At what point will the cultures, artists, and creativity of Europe be crushed under a mass of a billion immigrants, a throng of unproductive mouths to feed?
I thought this was going to be an anticapitalist screed until it took this turn. Mass immigration poses issues, but I fail to connect it to boring, incompetent, commodified art.
The olympics have become a famously ill-advised production. The number of cities bidding to host gradually fell to just two in 2024: Paris and LA. The IOC already awarded 2028 to LA over concerns there might not be any interest in a few years. Broadcast revenue is flatish, but broadcast hours are way up.
justmotteingaround
3mo ago
My whole point is people hesitance to even ask questions. Maybe Soros did everything you claim. None of that is my point.
As you stated, Musk has overt power. He bought a SM site, which he uses spread narratives and skew peoples perception of reality to a preferred political end, and has been appointed to directly audit the government, after being the by far the largest donor. Why on Earth should we be allergic to asking questions now?
As I noted, its probably too early to tell, but I'm mystified by the lack questioning given the power. Musk is one of the largest individual beneficiaries of government money. Thats notable. A $400M contract to buy armored Teslas appeared out of nowhere, only to be canceled. The Biden admin authorized a 450k plan to look into a similar EV scheme. Weird. DOGE has made some errors publicly, always overstating their findings. Okay, mistakes happen. They tried to make DOGE un-FOIA-able for 10 years. Whats that about? Practically overnight the media narrative became that USAID is some sort of scam that needs to be shuttered immediately. This came on faster than COVID-19 in Google Trends. How very odd.
justmotteingaround
4mo ago
From a CW perspective its also fascinating that a speech Mearsheimer had given years prior went super viral after the Russian invasion. The content is pretty dry, and nobody seemed to consider whether Mearsheimer was just flat wrong. I don't think he was, but it was a surprising chain of events.
The video did induce me to read a popular 2018 book by one of Mearsheimer's contemporaries "The Hell of Good Intentions". There was a lot I agreed with in both Mearsheimer's talk and the book, and some that I didn't. AFAIKT the "not one inch east" talking point is bullshit (is was a non binding quip from a powerless US functionary made to the USSR only in reference to German reunification, with the understanding that the Warsaw Pact there to stay). And while I think modern US influence in the region can fairly be questioned, it never came close to justifying a full invasion. However, realists would argue that states cannot know the intentions of other states, and so often over-react.
justmotteingaround
5mo ago
“If you drive [Gaza’s civilians] into the arms of the enemy, you replace a tactical victory with a strategic defeat.”
Lloyd Austin, December 2023. Whatever you think of him, that's pretty much what happened.
"Peace will come when the Arabs will love their children more than they hate us.”
Golda Meir, 1973. Whatever you think of her, that's pretty much why Israel felt it necessary to 'drive civilians into the arms of the enemy'.
Humas seem wired for such entrapment. It pattern matches pretty well to various cults, especially those that grew out of EST Training and its numerous offshoots. A charismatic visionary puts a new skin on old ideas, finds seekers, cordons them off, messes with their brain chemistry (though drugs, fasting, sleep deprivation, conflict, sex) Intragroup adherence is amplified though group activities, financial and relationship ties (which are sometimes totalizing). This pattern pervades Scientology, EST, The Landmark Institute, Osho, original Bikram Yoga, the Peoples Temple, Nexium; probably some companies, families, and churches. Landmark (which grew out of EST), appears to have found a stable payoff matrix. Good for them. As a rule of thumb, if you're invited to The Esalen Institute, you're 1% more likely to be joining a cult. If you hear the word ayahuasca weekly, 2%. If you're suddenly contemplating whether water has a memory, the importance of Ley lines, or past life regression, 50%. If half your discretionary incomes goes to this new group, 200%. When the leader is fucking your wife, you're probably in a cult.
What are your broad thoughts on testosterone? I've long been curious for various reasons. It seems to me like a reasonable tradeoff to a healthy, ageing person, but I haven't looked into it too much.
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