lollol
4hr ago
Things got bad enough economically because of the president's choices. Gas prices did peak June 2022 but the average voter I'm sure is able to differentiate when it's Russia starting a war then vs America starting a war now.
One can think of the stretch of time from 2000 to 2008 as the peak and beginning of the end for the neocon. 2008 to 2016 as the peak and fall of the neolib, with Biden being a last gasp. Trump 1 can be largely perceived as an attempt to communicate something new, and there was something there, or at least just lucky enough, to become first winner from the various different populous movements of the current times (Bernie/DSA, MAHA, techbro/UBI, etc.). Unfortunately or fortunately, Trump 1 was shackled by the last gasp of the neocon. Trump 2 though is just Trump. I don't think there is anything suggestive of an ethos or a doctrine or a philosophy or an ideology or a platform or a manifesto or anything here, except maybe the instinct of an octogenarian. Once the US populace got to experience the nakedness of Trump, the callousness, the capriciousness, the avarice, they quickly changed their minds (it would take time to admit regret).
One can see that the Democratic party has fielded bad candidates for 3 straight presidential elections. Hilary Clinton might have been a good candidate up to 2008, but not after. Biden might have been good in 2016, and he got lucky in 2020, but we all saw what happened on that debate stage. Harris was unimaginative, offered nothing new, anchored by the past, and again, we know how that went. And bubbling in the background the whole time was the perfect breeding ground for the future.
With 2026, I think the Democratic Party has an exciting bench of new faces with new voices articulating new ideas, or at least new (and seductive) to the American populace. Talarico in Texas and Hamilton in Kansas is spearheading a rejuvenated religious-based moral left. El-Sayed in Michigan is the natural successor of Bernie in the Senate, wrapped in a drop of Trumpian-style, being a charismatic bruiser for the populous cause (his chosen dragon is healthcare for all). Ossof in Georgia is the closest to the path Obama took, a polished and disciplined orator with a relatively clean political record, but with the airs of a firm patrician, not a perfected generic Democrat but possibly a transcendent one.
We must not forget that two years ago, the entire political spectrum of punditry was bemoaning that the Democrats will now have to go into the political wilderness. In 2025 January, Talarico was a Texas state house representative (not even federal), Hamilton was a pastor of a church (a megachurch though), El-Sayed was a director of a county department of health (admittedly the largest one in the state), and Ossof is a US Senator who last time won only by 1 point. Well, Trump blundered his way into accelerating the Democrats emergence. Yet, 2024 was just the latest in a decades long series of shellacking the Democrats had to have to finally let go of that neoliberal hammer they picked up since Bill Clinton. Some might be worried about how the left will hone their identity-grievance sickle instead, and there might still be a last gasp, but I think Trump is a bitter warning of its double-edges. In contrast, the Republicans have delayed trying to do the homework since 2012 now. There was a reason Trump won the primary in 2016: because the other Republicans are braindead with neocon rhetoric and offered nothing else. Once Trump came in and took the reins, Trump let them turned off their brain, they didn't have to decide anything, they didn't have to think of anything, they didn't have to feel anything; Trump decides and they just scramble behind him while offering sycophantic adulations. In a way, the 12 years of the Trump-era (2016-2028) taught both the Democrats and Republicans what not to do. They finally have to think and do something new.
I have never been excited for the Republican party until after this election because I know the Democratic party has and will give it a shellacking. America is stronger when both side of the political spectrum is strong. Not in the gridlock balance of power kind of way that Americans are used to since the 90s, but like how a pair of knives sharpen each other. Trump isn't it, and I'm not sorry to say it. Vestiges of Trumpian-style will continue, but movements of Tea Party/America First/MAGA/religious right just needed Trump as a vehicle for a while, they certainly don't need Trump to continue, and they shouldn't be defined by Trump either.
Aren't you excited for the new faces with new voices articulating new ideas of the Republicans in the future? I am.
lollol
19hr ago
From what I understand, the Dems already won a bunch in 2006, that's why the Republicans didn't lose as hard, 2008 was just the Dems running up the score after the blowout already happened. "Corruption" became the top rated issue, higher than grocery and gas prices, following a monthslong messaging effort by Democrats to link widespread economic dissatisfaction with what they allege is rampant corruption by President Donald Trump and his Republican allies.. It was about, for a voter, going from, "my life is hard because everything is so expensive" to "my life is hard because all this corruption and billionaires is making my life expensive" or "my life is hard because Trump cares more about his own personal benefit than making my life easier".
There is this idiom in China: "Water that is too clear has few fish, and one who is too critical has few friends". I really don't think people cares about Trump's corruption if prices are low and they can still "seem" to improve their life reasonably. But now that their life gotten so hard and so bad quickly enough, and with a clear decision made by the one in charge (Iran war), voters become instantly persuaded. Republicans may not vote for the other guy, but why would they show up for their team when they feel like they're being treated as chumps.
What factors about gas prices that the average voter would have linked to Biden and therefore punished him in the 2022 midterms for?
Ukraine is fighting an existential war with a nuclear power, if I was in charge of Ukraine I would do the same. Maybe if Trump was a better diplomat or his administration has better expertise in a strategic sense, they could have maintained relationships with Ukraine, be in the know, and asked/negotiated so that Russian refineries be hit after the midterms. Ukraine isn't in the game to help Trump, Ukraine is in the game to help itself. If Trump turns off all help and let Ukraine gets overrun, he will go down as the US president that let the re-emergence of Russia. Add in the unfolding blunder with Iran and what is there except to laugh.
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