lollol
18hr ago
Ooops, sorry, I was in a rush. I read the whole thread again and looks like I misunderstood your position. I think we have the same initial position that there has been a correction from the exuberance and so the vibes are bad even though stats wise it's not worse than average, and in fact underemployment is actually better than average for new grads in CS. The slight difference in between us is that I do believe there is a kind of protracted downturn (3+ years) in total CS employment count that has not been fully attributed yet AND that this slow erosion of total CS jobs also mean lowered wages, which changes the calculus of CS jobs attractiveness.
lollol
1d ago
So what would you agree to in terms of being an American? I really would like to know your true desire vs the minimal you would accept.
lollol
1d ago
I still believe it has not been proven that he wasn't framed, and therefore he isn't guilty beyond a reasonable doubt.
Just as you think "it has not been proven that he wasn't framed", you also haven't provided evidence strongly against "it has not been proven that he was framed". And I do think Daniel Tocci has a lot of avenues to pursue justice if he so desires. At the very least, he probably can get someone whom he trusts to lay out the evidence that he was framed.
My priors on him already possessing it are low because I'm skeptical anybody actually enjoys obscene photographs, I'm skeptical such a person would go to J6, see the news about investigations, and choose not to throw it away or at least encrypt it, and I am generally skeptical that the few people who do enjoy such material actually let it sit around in a giant downloaded collection unencrypted.
Uhhhhhhhh, I mean out of 1.5k+ people, only one or two did so, is it really that surprising? My priors is that people who would follow a liar are not that intelligent, they are depressed about the loss of their political idol, stressed about news of investigations, or just stupidly overconfident, and let things slip. I don't know anyone who like obscenity but there's a reason why anime is looked down upon because of the weeb's penchants for lolis, and that's the public ones, who knows what they do in private.
I'm thinking it's more likely a rogue agent or technician, motivated by hatred for MAGA, planted it, knowing that Trump would likely pardon him for the J6 behaviors.
So this person, a rogue agent, or this group of people, a rouge group, was able to plant:
- More than 100,000 CSAM files spread across five thumb drives.
- More than 10,000 CSAM files found on Tocci’s laptop.
- Extremely disturbing images of violent acts, such as a cat being killed by being put in a blender; a male shooting a female in the head; a dog being beaten to death; severed limbs; as well as images and videos of bestiality on said laptop.
- Google searches related to child sexual abuse, such as “countries with legal prostitution under 18.”
This rogue agent, or this group of rogues, was able to pull the wool over the judge (who could be part of the group), all the people that handled chain of evidence (who could also be part of the group), and the defense attorney (who could also be part of the group), and the interrogators (who could also be part of the group) would put pressure on Daniel Tocci so that even though he's innocent would then plead guilty. And they must have done it with future sight because their search (and therefore planting of the evidence) was done November 2023, a full year before the 2024 November election. And of all the J6ers, they just decided to plant evidence on this random Daniel Tocci guy.
Look, I am always ready for stories of systematic abuse of power and coverups. No need to look further than the Catholic Church and Boston to know that decades of widespread wrongdoing and injustice can escape the public eye. But that proves the point: there was a system that worked its weight to let the crime happen and then coverup the crime. Like I said, if framing Daniel Tocci was so easy, I would have expected an order of magnitude more at the very least (so 20+ instead of 2) also had that done to them.
lollol
1d ago
hmmmmm, by your standards, if all wannabe naturalized citizens are subject to a jury who must unanimously affirm whether that person is American or or not, and if the jury does so, that person is an American?
lollol
1d ago
Think of what it will be able to do in 6 months to a years time. I do think there is something to the position of: "we already have AGI we just don't know it yet".
lollol
1d ago
As mentioned, college pipelines are 3-4 years delayed. Job numbers are currently down to -42k/year. Just as the greater economy might not have a big effect on one industry (2008 where tech only had "limited impact"), this time, the greater economy might not/has not yet noticed the relatively constant downturn of one industry. Just because the squeeze is slow does not mean the squeeze isn't there.
lollol
1d ago
I do agree that naturalized citizens would actually have to do their civic test and therefore already out-qualify many if not most non-naturalized citizens in that aspect. I am interested in what /u/Opt-out counts as "an American" though cause it's starting to sound awfully like "what kind of American are you?"
lollol
1d ago
well this is a different argument isn't it? Trump pardoned the J6 stuff, and looks like the DOJ is arguing that evidence of other crimes collected during J6 investigation should not be prosecuted further. And yes, looks like they're only doing that for the politically defensible stuff. And yes that's bad because it's inconsistent.
But what you're saying happened to Daniel Tocci is clearly a lot different: intimidation, planting of evidence, and framing of child porn possession. Again, if Daniel is innocent, there are now plenty of platforms in which he can tell his story.
In addition, based on what I can find, "[s]ix of the pardoned January 6th insurrectionists are charged with committing child sex crimes, ranging from sexual assault to possession of child pornography." (I think I counted only 2 with child porn charges). Seeing as there's 1.5k+ J6ers, that's a very very very small amount of people being framed. I can easily see at least an order of magnitude more and most people won't bat an eye. I also don't see any reason why Daniel Tocci is so special that he needed child porn planted. Occam's razor points to that Daniel Tocci was highly likely already in possession of child porn.
lollol
2d ago
I'm going to pushback a bit at least on tech employment and present this data analysis posted on /r/cscareerquestions yesterday. Bolded mine:
From the data, several distinct periods can be identified:
Following the early 1990s recession and during the Clinton admin. economic and internet boom, tech employment increased exponentially at a 12% annual rate, peaking at 1.358 million in March 2001. It then collapsed in the dot-com bubble, up to an 18% downturn at its worst, and only recovered to the same level 6 years later, on March 2007. However, the market returned to growth in under 3 years.
The 2008 global financial crisis actually had only a limited impact on tech employment, since tech continued to boom during this time. From June 2009 to the pandemic in February 2020, tech employment increased in a remarkably stable and rapid linear growth pattern of around 80k per year.
The disruption caused by the pandemic was incredibly brief. It caused a net change of -70k, but by June 2020, hiring restarted at the fastest pace in history, around 130k per year. Having been a high schooler in this period, I definitely remember how insane the hype was around tech.
Hiring finally began to plateau beginning in May 2022. Total employment peaked at 2.483 million in March 2023. Ever since then, it has changed at a net rate of -42k a year.
The current slump is characterized by being less severe compared to the massive displacement of the dot-com bubble, which was much worse in percentage terms.
However, the current slump is also very protracted. This is the longest contiguous period of declining tech employment in the 36 years of data. That probably explains why this slump feels worse than anything in history. Even if it is not as intense as the dot-com bubble was, it is already longer, and it also followed the most rapid period of hiring in the history of tech.
It seems obvious that 2021-2022 overhiring has contributed to a disproportionately large glut of CS majors who had been expecting that 130k/yr employment growth rate when the market has actually suddenly shifted to -42k/yr, a gap in expectations of 172k.
This can be seen by the recent shifts in CS major enrollment. We can see enrollment as a rough 3-4 year lagging indicator for the sentiment of the candidate pool (since the data I have only tracks the employee pool, not how many people are applying for those positions). It started to drop rapidly this year.
So there is definitely a downturn in tech employment. And because tech ate the world, there are reverberations outward.
FRED source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ces6054150001
lollol
2d ago
I'm going to reply here to keep the conversations we have together concentrated.
In the United States federal system, guilty pleas are procedurally manufactured through defendant intimidation.
So, imagine, you are told by the judge you can't allege the government framed you in your trial. You can stage a half-defense at your trial, but if the jury doesn't buy it, since it is not the true defense, you will go to jail for 5 to 10 extra years. They plea out at this point.
I don't doubt that instances of this happens. But for this particular case you cited, I see that Daniel Tocci plead guilty to child pornography. Let's say he was intimidated and framed into pleading a guilty plea on "sprinkle some child porn on him", well, this is the perfect administration and the perfect FBI director with a great conservative media system who would love to hear this story and spread it as far and as wide as possible. His defense attorney also doesn't seem like the type to let his client make such a plea seeing as they're fighting on procedural ground for evidence dismissal. If the injustice to Daniel Tocci is real, Trump is right there in the correct spot to help him.
I would love to have a different example where you can point to J6er defendant intimidation/framed.
lollol
2d ago
I think "100 IQ worker with cop brothers and cousins" would also get filtered out (unless the defense is a joke at jury selection).
lollol
2d ago
Daniel Tocci plead guilty to possession of child pornography. Doesn't seem like the police sprinkled it on his computer.
lollol
3d ago
The discussion that feels most balanced regarding the settlement from my perspective was this: https://youtube.com/watch?v=Zl4L2OZXFC4
It will percolate through time that this is one of the most corrupt administration in early 21st century US history.
lollol
3d ago
They did this to several J6ers.
You're saying that the FBI framed several J6ers by "sprinkle some child pornography on him" ? source? would love to read up on this.
lollol
3d ago
I guess this is what we get from jury system which is basically a theater where regular people can use state power for their own power trips.
Who knows. Maybe if you were on that jury you would have come out to the same conclusion.
lollol
3d ago
I did. And as I pointed out, unless you're like a detective, most people look at other people and don't notice anything. But clearly, detectives do. Investigators do. Police do. Researchers do. Scientists do. They are trained to pick up on details and infer information that normal people don't. And training meant written down and was probably part of LLM training data. So yes, I am not surprised that LLMs know things about people based purely on images.
lollol
4d ago
So detective work? Anything a human can do, I do think an LLM can do. People are not that good at hiding who they are under scrutiny.
lollol
4d ago
Excellent essay. It's essentially a long form explanation of the adage "Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line". I suppose in some sense the GOP is a cult from the perspective of those against the typical Republican agenda.
lollol
4d ago
This is not about Massie but Cassidy. But I believe on The Bulwark, they did qualitative interviews of Republican primary voters and of the ones that voted against Cassidy all had the first reason being because he voted to impeach Trump. People will say different things and cite different reasons but at the end of the day, I do believe the Republican base, especially the primary base, like Trump more as a stand in figure for their hopes and dreams, than actually care about the actual results of the Trump political agenda.
lollol
4d ago
You are right and that is true. There is a motte of "they are guilty" and there is a bailey of "the consequences should be this".
lollol
4d ago
I am of the opinion that we never found out the extent of the guilt/liability because the process of the law was not carried out to its conclusion when the IRS and DOJ decided to settle behind close doors essentially. No judge, no jury, and certainly no congress. All I know about the case that has been decided so far is that the leaker, Charles Littlejohn, is definitely guilty and was sentenced to the maximum sentence under the law
If I have to put a number based on vibes and information I know at the moment, let's say confidence percentage (I'm not well versed in terminology for opinion/prediction) I would say:
- 0%: there was an org-wide conspiracy that the entirety of the IRS organization from the top of the chain of command down to the rank-and-file organized themselves so that they can leak Trump's tax return through a contractor.
- 100%: Littlejohn is guilty of leaking Trump's and thousands of other high net worth individuals tax returns.
- <1%: there was a particular conspiracy of close-knitted people that instigated Littlejohn to be the leaker and fall guy in such a way that Littlejohn thought he had the idea of his own will and therefore they can't be implicated.
- 1%: there was a particular conspiracy of close-knitted people that included Littlejohn and he decided to be the fall guy and is really good at not being a snitch.
- 5%: IRS was negligent in the hiring and vetting of Littlejohn as the contractor
- 1%: IRS was criminally negligent in the hiring and vetting of Littlejohn as the contractor
- <5%: IRS was illegally negligent in the hiring and vetting of Littlejohn as the contractor
- 80%: IRS was negligent in the designing, creating, maintaining, monitoring, and auditing the processes that led to Littlejohn be able to access, download, and leak the tax returns of Trump and other high net worth individuals.
- <20%: IRS was criminally negligent in the designing, creating, maintaining, monitoring, and auditing the processes that led to Littlejohn be able to access, download, and leak the tax returns of Trump and other high net worth individuals.
- 70%: IRS was illegally negligent in the designing, creating, maintaining, monitoring, and auditing the processes that led to Littlejohn be able to access, download, and leak the tax returns of Trump and other high net worth individuals.
If I have to couch the case so far from my perspective in this forum's terminology. The motte is that "the leak was bad", and the bailey is "the consequences of the leak should be this". The laws are clear and the leaker was guilty and sentenced when it comes to his case. When it comes to the IRS case though, the process of the law was not carried out so it's all murky and easy to understand as being viewed as unjust by a certain part of the public, especially when the consequences are now being reported as:
- third party settlements of over a billion dollars
- a group of individuals are now "immune from IRS audits"
For what it's worth, bills were voted in by congress, the legislative body, which were voted in by voters, so at least in some sense that's the will of the people that insane amount of money were shoveled into ostensible purposes.
Here it's Trump's IRS pitting against Trump's DOJ, both under the executive, making a settlement. Not a judge ordered settlement, but the two comes to settlement (wink wink nod nod) together.
Sarah Isgur (Trump 1 DOJ spokesperson) makes a good point that the proper way would have been to "en banc" the case so that the statue of limitation is frozen. The case would have resumed when Trump is merely a citizen and not the current president, and he would have likely won because the case is pretty solid.
She commented that the judge of the case asked a legal point on how: "It is unclear to this Court whether the Parties are sufficiently adverse to each other so as to satisfy [the Constitution’s] case or controversy requirement.". The judge then asked that both sides submit more information to answer and make claim their position on the point she made. Then conveniently the two teams (and remember, they both work for Trump) drop the case and settle two days before the judge's deadline.
Look, if Congress pass laws to appropriate this $1.7 billion for the same purpose, there won't be an outcry because again, in some sense it flows from the will of the people. Like almost all crimes, it's how you do something that's important, not what was achieved.
edit1: "the outcry would be less justified"
Let me give an example of what I mean. Let's assume a version of a liberal/leftist with terms of "world where people don't go hungry", where their "true desire" is probably some form of "utopian communism" but they recognize the reality for what it is (that not all men are angel/that we don't have a post-scarcity world/etc.), and they settle. They don't settle all to the same position, but most settle with at least some form of what can be called "progressive tax system".
That's what I want to know about your stance. Your stance is "cultural and genetical assimilation as barrier to American-hood". I would like to know what is your "true desire", the one you wish the world would be to fully satiate your stance. But because of hard/impossible to solve constraints, you have to settle, and I want to know what is the least/minimal would you settle for.
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