magic9mushroom
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User ID: 1103
magic9mushroom
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4d ago
I honestly don't know what's going on or will be going on. I pay very little attention to the Israel/Palestine situation because I already know what I want to do with it (nothing) and because there's not much chance of it blowing up into Global Thermonuclear War (if Iran gets nukes and nukes Israel, I imagine that would suck for anyone in the region, but it's not clear how that turns into great-power arsenals flying).
Just saying, if I were Bibi I'd assume that mostly either the funding will be pulled or it won't and my war conduct wasn't super-relevant. It's not impossible that war crimes could affect the money tap, but it's hardly a clear deciding factor.
magic9mushroom
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26d ago
(this doubles as a reply to @Lewis2)
I quoted what I thought was wrong; the idea that the right will not have the power to do censorship any time soon.
Indeed, one would not need to worry about "wokeness at Harvard", because my whole point is that Harvard would be a smoking ruin. I would be concerned about White Terror, both immediately (in cases of supply-chain interruption and government disruption causing hungry chaos, I don't imagine that being the HR lady would do wonders for one's survival chances) and in the months and years to follow.
magic9mushroom
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23hr ago
That isn't my impression at all, I feel like she was very serious about it.
Yeah, I figured that was a real possibility; it was just that from what you initially said I wasn't clear on that and as such I couldn't give a definite "aieee".
If you're doing okay, that's great, I'm genuinely happy for you.
I'm actually still dealing with the social fallout of the blackmail Drama two years back (I miraculously avoided legal trouble, but my uni is mad at me), so I wouldn't say I'm doing okay. But I'm safe enough to be around for people who don't think holding me over the volcano's edge sounds like a great idea (even during Drama I'm pretty good about avoiding harm to bystanders).
magic9mushroom
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5d ago
Israel is dependent on the US, and US voters care about genocides which make the news, and anything involving Israel will make the news.
I kind of wonder about that. The institutions that launder that sort of information into public awareness are to a large extent captured by people who are anti-Israel, so it's actually kind of questionable how many people they'd lose vs. the counterfactual by actually doing massive war crimes. A lot of the populace already thinks Israel's guilty of ethnic cleansing, and a reasonable amount have heard "Wolf!" cried enough times that they've tuned out and won't believe reports of massacres; there's just not all that much of the US meaningfully in play here.
magic9mushroom
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13d ago
I mean, the key attribute here is the monotony of it. As he notes, n=1 isn't really enough to say much because the pairing is not exactly unknown. It takes a good memory, a reasonable amount of exposure to modern Western media, and some level of political awareness to, as you put it, "notice". Most people don't have that. TheMotte concentrates those who do, but it's still not everyone here.
As it happens, @George_E_Hale has just admitted that he's not exposed to all that much of this.
Some charity would be nice. Even a reasonable amount of SJers haven't noticed this sort of thing; I didn't until somewhat after I left.
magic9mushroom
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26d ago
Note the word "force". "If you put a gun to my head and demand I ally with X or anti-X, I pick anti-X" =/= "I am, IRL, allied to anti-X".
magic9mushroom
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11d ago
· Edited 11d ago
The paper's authors seem to be making the same mistake and/or a slightly-different one. The slightly-different mistake is to prove that the atmosphere can't warm the ground on net (true enough on a global scale, though there are local exceptions) and then assume that this means the ground can't warm because of atmospheric effects (AGW is strictly-speaking a case of the atmosphere and radiation-to-space cooling the ground less, and while 2LoT does indeed forbid the atmosphere or space net warming the ground it says nothing about the rate at which the cooling occurs; the ultimate source of the energy that warms the planet is of course the Sun).
The obvious analogy here is that a blanket can't warm you up - it does not generate or actively transfer heat - but you get warmer when you are covered in one because it reduces the rate at which the environment cools you and thus you get net-warmed by your metabolic activity.
Yes, I know the authors go around claiming that lots of people are wrong, some of whom say things similar to this. These claims are a mixture of straight nonsense and cherry-picking people who did indeed fuck up in either their understanding or their exact wording. It's not like thinking AGW is real is an infallible defence against being a moron or messing up a description, after all.
As for their supposed training: well, they're making script-kiddie mistakes. I legitimately don't know whether the reason they're making script-kiddie mistakes is that they're script-kiddies themselves or that they're deliberately lying to fool script-kiddies like you (to be clear, I'm a script-kiddie about a lot of things; no offence intended). I'm not sure it especially matters.
magic9mushroom
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26d ago
If I could buy puts for countries, I think puts on Britain would have the most alpha.
You'd better make sure your put-writer has enough money (and will survive) to actually pay out, or you're not the one making alpha.
magic9mushroom
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18hr ago
Mild symptoms complicate both diagnosis and treatment - much of what DBT is designed to help is for moderate functioning people (can be great) and low functioning people (where it isn't likely to).
Your diagnosis could be wrong, but I'd guess what's happening is that you are well enough, and the underlying biological reality of a borderline brain gets in the way sometimes.
To give the most obvious example, there was an emphasis on meditation, but all that accomplished for me was sending me catatonic.
However also possible you are what you are and don't meet criteria for anything.
Oh, I absolutely meet criteria for HFA/Asperger's and (currently) for depression. And I absolutely do have tendencies in the direction of borderline; I hit two or so of the nine with no question and there are quite a few with at least some question marks. The most obvious thing I categorically don't do is that I've never been a "splitter" (quite the opposite, to be honest), which means I avoid the most severe and characteristic borderline failure mode of "has both the tendency to incorrectly conclude that people are cardboard villains and the temperament for vigilante justice, causing repeated and unwarranted murder attempts and other hostile actions".
magic9mushroom
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6d ago
Why wouldn't the ecumene include Ethiopia and India?
My understanding is that they weren't quite as well-mixed with Europe/Mediterranean. Certainly, on a superficial level, it's much easier to distinguish Indians and Ethiopians from Italians than it is Arabs. There's definitely a line-drawing problem in Persia, as I said, because indeed there was a lot more geneflow between the Ecumene and India than there was between e.g. India and China.
Regression to the mean is an argument for having higher or lower trait thresholds for certain races, but not for excluding those races altogether.
Agreed.
magic9mushroom
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8d ago
Maybe it does, but if so I don't know it.
magic9mushroom
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8d ago
Go into the .xlsx file of public results, search by the most identifiable answers you gave (I used diagnoses) to work out which row is you, read off that row.
I don't know another way, or how to get the private answers (other than straight-up asking Scott to email you the row that includes your email address).
magic9mushroom
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8d ago
I think it'd be easier to answer if you elaborated.
magic9mushroom
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10d ago
You heat it up by a degree, you cool it down by a degree. I don't see the problem here.
As I've said, I agree with this logic when restricted to longwave. Removing greenhouse gas from the atmosphere with air-capture is indeed fine.
The problem is that reducing shortwave - i.e. blocking sunlight - doesn't just cool the planet. Sunlight is also needed for photosynthesis, which has massive indirect effects through the carbon cycle and, more directly, is how we grow food.
We can bound the harms of global warming pretty well. The harms of global dimming are much harder to bound, particularly at the unprecedented levels needed to do multiple degrees of cooling via dimming. You fuck with sunlight at your peril.
magic9mushroom
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19d ago
Fair point.
magic9mushroom
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19d ago
The reply rates are strong evidence, yes. And that does show the effect I expected where Indian women don't get the same effect as sub-Saharan African women.
Conceded.
magic9mushroom
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20d ago
· Edited 20d ago
Okay, I looked again. "Black" (which I will take to mean sub-Saharan African here, this being largely US data and all) men rated "black" women about the same as other women (varied between -4% and +1% over the years, whereas e.g. white men rating "black" women ranged from -25% to -17%).
(I use the scare quotes and distinguish "African" because there are South Asians and Aboriginal Australians with similar skin tone to sub-Saharan Africans - and the latter are even called "black" - but the face shape is very different and that almost certainly affects these kinds of figures.)
magic9mushroom
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23d ago
Lastly, Australian aboriginals aren’t black and are highly genetically and phenotypically distinct from both African and European populations; Africans and Europeans are much more genetically close than either population is to indigenous Australians and Papuans.
My understanding is that it's close. Yes, there's Denisovan admixture in Aboriginals (previously I thought that that was also in East Asians and thus ruled out as relevant, but I checked in response to this and there's far less of it in Asians), but (sub-Saharan) Africans don't have Neanderthal admixture and have much-longer isolation as far as the H.s.s. part goes.
magic9mushroom
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4d ago
My point is: suppose Israel commits an atrocity. People who consume pro-Palestinian media will hear about it and be outraged, but they mostly already hate Israel so nothing's changed. People who consume pro-Israel media will just hear Israel's side of the story, as implausible as it may be, and therefore won't be outraged because they don't know it happened, so nothing's changed.
Sure, there are people who care about the truth, have a variety of sources, but are not either already pro-Palestinian or rabidly pro-Israel and thus can be flipped - those people are in play. But there aren't actually all that many of them.
magic9mushroom
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4d ago
I mean, I did forget about the ADL, and that's my bad, but as you say they aren't in play either and so I think the overall issue of "remarkably little of the USA is actually movable by any potential Israeli warcrimes, because most of the populace either is already dead-set against Israel, is shielded from the information, or is so pro-Israel it'd still support it" still exists.
magic9mushroom
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26d ago
· Edited 26d ago
I feel I should note that there is such a thing as "being neutral", and thus that RenOS' note that he doesn't want to ally with you is not the same thing as declaring alliance with your enemies.
You might consider neutrality naïve, and you might very well be right, but you can't just treat naïveté as malice - not if you want to be intellectually honest, anyway.
magic9mushroom
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28d ago
"Cut spending" is definitely a real solution to deficit, and one that Kulak straight-up noted. Whether doing so would be peaceful or not I'm not sufficiently knowledgeable to comment on.
magic9mushroom
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28d ago
Your particular alternative doesn't work for the stated case. Inflating away obligations works if your obligations are for a specific number of a currency that you control. But here what is being claimed is an inequality between the amount of stuff produced and the amount of stuff required; no amount of macroeconomic black magic will turn 1 kg of meat into 2 kg of meat or 1 kg of steel into 2 kg of steel. If you devalue the dollar by half and don't double the nominal amount of welfare, this is effectively the same thing as cutting welfare by half. If you devalue the dollar by half and do double the nominal amount of welfare, then it still uses the same chunk of your budget as it used to and this doesn't help you get out of the hole. Same thing goes for military spending, or for civil service salaries. Interest payments on existing debt are the only thing that can be gotten rid of via inflation, because everything that cashes out in some form of real good or service scales with inflation.
magic9mushroom
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1d ago
She then goes on to reveal to me that she's been formally diagnosed with BPD. I'm screaming and reacting with a 💀 emoji. Proceeds to tell me it's not that bad, to which I earnestly disagree.
I resent this remark. I've been formally diagnosed with BPD too. To be fair, in my case it's probably a misdiagnosis (I definitely have tendencies in that direction, but you have to stretch to get to 5/9), but it's not like that's unheard-of.
I do. It's called nuclear war. I don't, y'know, want nuclear war, but it's pretty obvious that the small-town conservatives comprise a much-larger percentage of the population immediately following one because nobody nukes farmhouses or small towns.
Assuming that nothing flips the table is potentially assuming your way out of reality.
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