The only explanation I can make of this is that Paul Pelosi has dementia, or was so drunk that he couldn't make out what was happening. His 911 call sounds a lot like someone who has dementia. The male prostitute theory makes absolutely no sense--why would a prostitute break in?
magnax1
1yr ago
That double blind trial data is a lot better and very clear that this isn't the case. We don't have to do guessing games with outside factors (such as risk taking when you know you're vaccinated), so why would we?
Its common for people with extensive previous records or who are involved in violent crime. I don't think that's what people are thinking about when they hear someone went to jail for Marijuana for years.
magnax1
1yr ago
If we accept that NIMBY policies lead to lower density, then sure. I don't think that's the case. Very few places have an incentive to build up and not out, but regulations increases costs for both.
magnax1
1yr ago
Religiosity doesn't seem to have much correlation in general. There are exceptions (mormons, like you said, but even they are trending down fast) and the most religious countries in the world, the Arab peninsula states, have low birth rates that are trending down fast.
magnax1
1yr ago
I don't think this is as separated as you seem to think.
I don't think they're separate. Like I said-
the biggest fear of wokism in corporations comes from implicit regulatory burden
But civil rights suits and so on are not the biggest burden. It's one of many burdens, and the burdens become bigger and more arbitrary the bigger the company.
Yes. The deep south cash crop states were not the only slave states. You pointed out border states yourself, many of which are quite temperate in climate. There was no reason for them to be so undeveloped compared to new england, and even some of the relatively underpopulated great lakes states. Virginia is actually an ideal place for industrialization--lots of cheap coal, lots of riverways that can transport coal and then power industry in cities, and lots of amazing places for huge ports. Yet, Virginia never really industrialized.
Studies have actually been done, although the veracity will always be fuzzy with 150+ year old data, they never suggest the effects are "not very" large.
A lot of borders are arbitrary, but the outcomes are not. The policy of a state and culture of a region are maybe the most important single factor for economic development. Slave states vs non slave are maybe the best example outside of east and west germany.
Obviously the parent is still alive, the question is if they are contributing to child care in any meaningful way. Just splitting the time between households is probably not meaningfully different than having 1 parent. The benefit of nuclear family is probably mostly in having more child rearing labor at any time. You actually see the same effect in Japan, except with traditional multi generational families having better outcomes vs nuclear families.
Parents don't live together probably because one, or maybe both parents are assholes. These traits are passed to children.
This may have some effect, but given that even significantly heritable factors like height and intelligence aren't that inheritable (I think IQ is roughly 30%?), it really doesn't fit.
Remember, pre Civil-rights era such horrible share of single parent household didn't exist and the crime gap was about the same.
Pre ~1950 data isn't that good in the first place, (EDIT: actually even now I don't think the data is excellent) but there is a pretty huge uptick in crime that fits very well with the adolescence of the first generation of single parent children.
magnax1
1yr ago
Black people have a much higher propensity to crime at every income level, but single motherhood alone makes up almost all that difference. The problem is much clearer than people often let on.
magnax1
1yr ago
You massively over estimate the uniformity of American beliefs. If you travel from NYC, to Salt Lake, to Phoenix, the rural Midwest, the values indeed differ massively and always have. The only reason it might seem otherwise is because people self segregate. Most people succeed in seeking out their ingroup where ever they go. If they can't succeed (Like culturally black people in Salt Lake) they generally avoid those spaces.
There is an underpinning of enlightenment (far more than "post enlightenment") values among most of the non hyper urban settings, but I don't think that is built all that much by the schools, but by basic American tradition. Myths are powerful, and the American myth is an exceptionally powerful myth, up there with the Christian and Muslim myths. The American mythos leaves a lot of space for disagreement though.
You seem to believe institutions like schools are far more effective than I do. They're very effective for a certain type of person--mainly the quiet kids who get good grades and follow orders. Those kids are basically selected for by their predecessors in government backed institution. After they are selected they have an outsized voice, but probably not an outsized functional impact. If they had an outsized impact the leftist institutions would likely not have to rely on immigrant votes to eek out a 50% win rate in elections.
Since COVID-19 vaccinations have become available in December 2020, an estimated 182 million people in the United States were fully vaccinated against COVID-19 by September 21, 2021. However, since April 2021, the number of people starting to get COVID-19 vaccines has decreased. People have cited vaccine safety concerns as deterrents to getting a COVID-19 vaccine, concerns that include deaths following COVID-19 vaccination. Although deaths after COVID-19 vaccination have been reported to VAERS, there have been few studies done to evaluate the mortality not associated with COVID-19 among vaccinated and unvaccinated groups. To analyze this, researchers conducted a study using the Vaccine Safety Datalink, comparing those who received COVID-19 vaccines and those who did not between December 2020 through July 2021. This study included data from 11 million people; 6.4 million received either Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna or Janssen COVID-19 vaccine and 4.6 were unvaccinated. The analysis showed that those who received COVID-19 vaccinations had lower rates of mortality for non-COVID-19 causes than those unvaccinated. These findings provide evidence that COVID-19 vaccines are safe and support current vaccination recommendations.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/research/publications/index.html
There is another study in there as well with the same conclusion. This is just non-covid mortality risk, obviously the risk for COVID itself is much lower for people who took the vaccine, and that data is in there as well IIRC.
Have you considered that your position in this matter may not depend on what's true at all?
I think you should consider that your worldview is contrarian to try to make yourself feel that you're smarter than others but actually tarnishes your ability to view these things objectively. We're also approaching a tertiary problem not very related to covid here--there's enough information on the internet that you can find some information somewhere to support any contrarian claim. As a contrarian I fall into this trap sometimes, but the data on this subject is quite clear. Just to be nice, I typed in "Covid vaccine safety" into google, and copy and pasted the first link. I shouldn't really need to copy and paste links from simple google searches. If this was more niche not easily accessible data you might have a point.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/research/publications/index.html
There are only a gajillion studies in there, some of them the original double blind IIRC, and most concerns related to the vaccine have multiple studies posted under them.
There are outlier events for lots of vaccines, usually allergic/autoimmune reactions, but there is pretty clear that, no, there is not a higher mortality rate among the vaccinated. There is the opposite.
magnax1
1yr ago
Basically all industrialized countries went through the modernization that led to declining birth rates post WW2, but France definitely lagged behind Germany and the UK economically before the 2nd world war.
magnax1
1yr ago
You may be right that rational is not the right word (I actually kind of hate that word, I just wasn't being precise enough I guess) but projection and the general meaning of the statement as a whole should be pretty obvious--they are projecting their worldview and values onto other countries, that America and co have the same zero sum authoritarian worldview and that will lead them to conflict with russia, when it's obvious by their different actions (How NATO plays out vs historic Russian alliances) that this isn't the case. They then use this claimed worldview to justify things they were going to do anyways (invade a third party). I think it's totally fair to call this irrational, in that it's just not an argument that stands up to any scrutiny, but it is also has a clear purpose and the term rational is too wishy washy relativistic to be meaningful.
magnax1
1yr ago
The serbs shot down one stealth jet (that is an order of magnitude less stealthy than an F35 or F22) out of dozens of bombing runs in the exact same flight path. Not exactly a good track record.
magnax1
1yr ago
It's worth adding that the Soviet casualties in the early and mid parts of the war ranged from 2-4 times as high as the German. Even during the end when the Soviets outnumbered the Germans 4 to 1 with better equipment, more fuel, and total air superiority, the Soviets usually only achieved around 1 to 1 casualty ratios. Not only is it hard to believe the Russians had much faith in their leadership, its hard to actually call Zhukov et al better than what the Russians are putting out now. They were just in a much more favorable situation materially.
magnax1
1yr ago
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No_one NapoleonBonerpart5 1d
You vastly overestimate China here and vastly underestimate Russia, especially in terms of "dying" countries. China's demographics are the worst on Earth by far, Russia's are the best in Europe outside France.
magnax1
1yr ago
The cause of death and data surrounding it would be more what I'm worried about.
magnax1
1yr ago
I think that some people saw greedy bankers im a fantasy world and immediately went "Wow! Those are jews! How dare she!" Says more about them than anything else. There is just so little connection that it doesn't deserve a counterargument.
magnax1
1yr ago
If their fear was that NATO would prevent them from invading their neighbors, they were quite right to be afraid. That just means that the fear is more projection than rational opposition.
magnax1
1yr ago
I cannot express just how confident I am that the price of a square foot of housing in the United States is not an important driver of low fertility rates
You are absolutely wrong. Population density and it's associated costs are maybe the biggest difference in variation between tfr of developed countries.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1693032/
This is why France, Russia, and the US have had relatively higher birth rates than other developed countries--they all still have quite a bit of low cost free space. On the other end of the spectrum, extremely densely populated over urbanized countries with high cost per square foot of property in east asia, such as Korea, China, and Japan, are on the opposite end of the spectrum.
You can easily see this within the US as well. Places like NYC have abnormally low birth rates, especially among native populations.
Just because someone is a degenerate weirdo in silicon valley doesn't mean that dating norms, or the stated (but entirely ignored) norms set out by HR departments and oversocialized libs are valid either. Nor is being a silicon valley degenerate weirdo particularly a big deal. People don't have a right to social comfort beyond the option of just getting up to leave. This is a case of hysterics in the face of someone who is maybe slightly out of line.
And the point was that the threshold for discomfort can be lower. Again, a person doesn't have a right to total social comfort. The moral question of polygamy is a whole other thing which really isn't done justice by any leftist lenses.
magnax1
1yr ago
It's like work is not fun and workers are in a precarious position and must be on their toes.
I'm not speaking on this particular incident because I don't know enough details, but a lot of these people who get shoved out ceremoniously are in a precarious position for a reason totally unrelated to the incident--workplace feuds, poor performance, being a weirdo in a general undefined sense, etc. Then management or HR will take some arbitrary unsubstantiated claim and kick them out. This is pretty common in the mid and higher ranges of bureaucracies and probably makes up a lot of woke firings IMO.
magnax1
1yr ago
Winning arguments is about evoking a story or a mythos more than offering up meaningful facts. This is why politicians have random people they don't know come and sit in during their policy speeches. Like, "Our refugee program saved Jenny's life when gangs were hunting her down in el salvador." Or whatever.
Find a meaningful emotionally resonant consequence of their beliefs and turn it into a story. Tell them about the person just like them whose life would be harmed by their beliefs.
That's not an argument against what I'm saying. You can't predict exactly how future growth will work, but betting it will be there is pretty obvious.
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