non_radical_centrist
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User ID: 1327
non_radical_centrist
1yr ago
I've heard that narrative before, I'm not totally convinced by it. I'd want to see some decently strong evidence for it before buying into it.
Especially since generally, moderates win swing states, not whoever motivates partisans the hardest. The nation as a whole is like one giant swing state in many ways.
I don't believe framing has that much power. I think voters mostly make their own decisions, propaganda has an impact but it's relatively small.
non_radical_centrist
1yr ago
Hot jihad against Israel has been tried 3 times previously. It failed disastrously each time, Israel had decisive victories and ended with more land than they started with. Israel's international stance and its military is much stronger today than the past as well.
I think pushing Russia back to 2013 is unlikely, but back to 2015 is not impossible. Especially since Russia's having difficulties, they're going deep into debt and relying heavily on China giving them loans and buying oil.
non_radical_centrist
1yr ago
I think Palestinians have absolutely 0 plausible paths to victory through violence. Right it's looking like Ukraine won't regain its lost territory, but I wouldn't put the odds at 0. Plus Russia's been continuously slowly expansionist for the past two decades- if Ukraine just gave up no, I wouldn't be surprised if Russia tried to take it over again in twenty years.
non_radical_centrist
1yr ago
Do you have good sources showing "moderating" will lead to fewer votes, especially in swing states where votes actually matter? I buy more into Median Voter Theorem, where moderating is usually the single best move a politician can make
non_radical_centrist
1yr ago
I feel like it's a bit of a writing hack too. Part of why those series can be so enticing is that they present mysteries that seem impossible to resolve, and you desperately want to know how they do resolve. But turns out the author can't resolve them and you were enticed by the mystery under false premises.
non_radical_centrist
1yr ago
Tracing Woodgrains.
non_radical_centrist
1yr ago
Saudi military is incompetent. It doesn't matter what the tech you have is of you can't fight. It's how the RPF beat the French supported government of Uganda in the 90s, because the government forces were just that pathetic and ill led.
non_radical_centrist
1yr ago
War is brutal. Israel has done many bad things, perhaps more than necessary, but that's how war goes. America was hardly polite and soft on Japan in WW2.
If Native Americans started randomly suicide bombing American cafes and launched roughly one attack every twenty years that would kill hundreds, how many Native American civilian casualties would you max out at before saying "no, the cost is too high to keep bombing reservations"?
non_radical_centrist
1yr ago
There's definitely a massive disconnect among pretty much everyone between how much they sympathize with and care about any animal they see or hear about, even just in a book or video, and how much meat they eat. I'm not a vegan, but I'll whole heartedly admit to not actually consistently following my principles in real life, and I respect vegans who shape their lives around their beliefs.
I just accept that most people are not very self-aware.
non_radical_centrist
1yr ago
I think environmentalists want to help the environment, although aesthetics is definitely a major aspect, but they are dumb and don't understand what actually helps the environment. A lot of the people who vote for rent control don't want there to be an under supply of housing; they just don't get how economics work
non_radical_centrist
1yr ago
If you gave me even odds, I would bet the house that Mark has masturbated in women's underwear before he showed up at your work in women's clothes.
How'd you arrive at those numbers?
And if you had to follow one into combat, to lay down your life in the company of other men, fighting for your home and hearth, would you rather follow Mark who calls himself Mary, or would you rather follow the one who calls him a man? Everything in this world is downstream from violence, although we've done wonders to conceal that.
Combat is involved in very, very few aspects of life. It's vastly more likely OP has to follow Mary into the world of finance, where Mary will crush the vast majority of people who insist Mary is Mark. For most people, trying to surround themselves with the best warriors is not a path to a succesful life.
non_radical_centrist
1yr ago
People don't become psychotic out of nowhere.
Some people do just have schizophrenic breaks and become bad for society if not medicated out of nowhere.
non_radical_centrist
1yr ago
Biden seems determined to hold on right now, and there isn't any easy process to oust him by other Democrat leaders. I think it's likely he won't be nominee, but I'm not super confident on it.
The markets are definitely super volatile though, you might be able to find some good arbitrage opportunities that will be just straight free money
non_radical_centrist
1yr ago
I got a star projector that puts pretty colours on my ceiling, it makes a much more aesthetic room imo.
non_radical_centrist
1yr ago
I've liked the groups I attended. Intelligent, friendly, and surprisingly not that socially awkward.
non_radical_centrist
1yr ago
I think a reified debate format is possible. Take this interview:
https://youtube.com/watch?si=zc3iAibHgxxf6gir&v=fPQ9uA_M1Eg&feature=youtu.be
In it, Tucker Carlson pushes back against a member of the media who said that Tucker's head was in the sand about the Assad regime being responsible for gas attacks. Carlson comes off increasingly hysterical as the debate goes on, as the media member stays calm and lands good points. That sort of debate is absolutely possible, if Biden behaved like that guy and had cool and factual responses to Trump, he could've knocked it out of the park. Instead, Biden flubbered on abortion that should've been an easy popular issue for him, and didn't press Trump on stuff like Ukraine that he has no plan for beyond asking Putin to pretty please stop the war.
I do think verbal debates are over hyped and in an ideal world they would write oppositional essays to each other, and the media would do honest fact checking to explain context on any misleading statements in the essays, and we could have actually trusted experts to summarize the most important take aways. But obviously even that is too boring for most voters.
At the very least it might be interesting if both candidates had to provide their sources to the opposition ahead of time like how lawyers have to tell each other which witnesses will be involved ahead of time. That way debunkings can be prepared for bogus sources.
non_radical_centrist
1yr ago
It being bipartisan is probably exactly why it got little coverage. The media did write about it, but the stuff that reaches front pages and gets spread all over social media is the stuff that people actually share. Ragebait gets way more clicks than good news.
non_radical_centrist
1yr ago
Hanson throws a lot of crazy ideas out there. I think to have a really high number of good ideas in absolute numbers, you've also got to have a lot of stinkers in absolute numbers, so I don't hold his worst ideas against him as long as he doesn't start constantly shouting about them
non_radical_centrist
1yr ago
I agree on House to House. It was the first military biography I listened to but tbh not that good. Also it was weird how he went on about "We are America's warrior class"- not a perspective most veterans actually have these days. Especially since it doesn't mesh well with the existence of very numerous support military jobs like logistics and communications that are absolutely crucial for military success but aren't that warrior-y.
non_radical_centrist
1yr ago
No, it's pretty fast for me
non_radical_centrist
1yr ago
I meant a non-nuclear ICBM. Or any other sort of explosive strike that kills hundreds that's very difficult to defend against.
non_radical_centrist
1yr ago
International law is not binding. If Timidland decides not to join Moralland, there are no nation police who'll arrest them for violating their contract. All that is hurt is their reputation. How badly their reputation is hurt depends on the scenario; I think few people would accuse Timidland of really violating their alliance if they didn't come to the aid of Moralland there.
But if the people of Timidland consider themselves bound by honour to help, or would want Moralland to help them if the situation were reversed, then they should go and help.
non_radical_centrist
1yr ago
Having a much larger military can be necessary to decisively win an asymmetrical war. Say Iran started lobbing ICBMs into NATO capitals. You can lob ICBMs back with little difficulty, but that might not actually get them to stop, maybe they're happy to take lots of losses if it means they can hurt the Western devils. If NATO actually wants to protect as many of its citizens as possible, they'll need to actually invade Iran in that scenario. And that'll take a very large military to win an offensive intercontinental war with a regional power.
non_radical_centrist
1yr ago
Hosting billions of videos is expensive. Most companies can't turn that into something actually profitable. It's debatable if Google even is getting anything nearly worth its investment.
I'm somewhat sympathetic to blackpill ideas, but I think the context it's missing is men will often be even worse. A 6'6 guy with a swastika tattoo might get lots of dates- but not as many as a skinny girl with D cups who has a swastika tattoo. You can condemn women for being superficial and horny, but you should be condemning men 100x as much. Us men are much more likely to look past horrible personality defects just to get laid by someone hot.
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