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There was a Hezbollah rocket attack on the Golan heights about 45 minutes ago. I don’t think it was that large overall, but one of the rockets hit a school soccer practice. Mass casualties confirmed, including at least four dead children. Prime Minister Netanyahu has been pulled into an emergency security meeting due to the incident. My gut tells me the response will be severe and that this will trigger a war between Israel and Hezbollah, which has already been brewing for some time.
Edit (7:30 PM GMT) Israeli media is reporting that Prime Minister Netanyahu has received approval from the United States for a major operation against Hezbollah.
Edit 2 (8:00PM GMT) Israeli authorities are saying at least 10 dead.
Edit 3 (8:47PM GMT) Massive GPS jamming occurring throughout the Mediterranean
Edit 4: (10:23PM GMT) Prime Minister Netanyahu has expressed condolences to the Druze community, dates that the attack “will not pass on silence”
Edit 5 (4:43AM GMT) Unconfirmed reports in Lebanese media of Israeli air strikes in Lebanon.
Edit 6 (5:10 PM GMT) Confirmed IAF air strikes on Lebanon occurring now.
Edit 7 (7:32 PM GMT) Israeli drones are airborne over Beirut. Israel is calling up medical volunteers to surge staff to hospitals in northern Israel in anticipation of large volumes of casualties.
Edit 8 (8:02 PM GMT) Municipal officials in Western and Northern Galilee regions are ordering residents into shelters
Edit 9 (3:04PM GMT) The Israeli Cabinet has given Prime Minister Netanyahu authorization for a strike on Hezbollah forces in Lebanon.
The only thing that concerns me is that such a war is going to make elements of the left flip out at the Dems, most probably at the convention, and get Trump elected. Like, do they think that Trump, the guy who moved the US embassy to Jerusalem, would be better for the Palestinians than Harris?
Trump unironically probably would be better for everyone in the ME, including Palestinians (though not for the reasons that Democrats think). The worst outcome for Palestinians is that Hamas keeps using them as meat-shields in new conflicts they feel emboldened in starting because they're confident a Democrat administration will keep restraining Israel. That factor is lessened with Trump in power.
Of course, as I've said before, none of the people who claim to care about Palestinian lives really do. They're far more invested in killing Israelis.
I find it pretty ironic that most of the people on Reddit that are telling the Palestinians to just give up and leave are the same ones telling the Ukrainians to fight to the last man woman child and dog.
I think Palestinians have absolutely 0 plausible paths to victory through violence. Right it's looking like Ukraine won't regain its lost territory, but I wouldn't put the odds at 0. Plus Russia's been continuously slowly expansionist for the past two decades- if Ukraine just gave up no, I wouldn't be surprised if Russia tried to take it over again in twenty years.
"Incite hot jihad between everyone else in the ME and Israel" seems more plausible than "push Russia back to 2013 borders" to me. (not that either is very plausible, but there's clearly a non-zero chance that Israel could be overwhelmed in the unlikely event of a grand alliance against them.)
Hot jihad against Israel has been tried 3 times previously. It failed disastrously each time, Israel had decisive victories and ended with more land than they started with. Israel's international stance and its military is much stronger today than the past as well.
I think pushing Russia back to 2013 is unlikely, but back to 2015 is not impossible. Especially since Russia's having difficulties, they're going deep into debt and relying heavily on China giving them loans and buying oil.
Neither is it literally impossible that the Arabs get their shit together this time -- just that there's not much evidence that they will, and plenty that seems to point in the other direction. Much like the situation in Ukraine.
Their only >1% path that I can see is somehow convincing NATO to start WW3 -- and since Russia has a lot more nukes than Israel, and is fighting in a place that does not include their own holiest sites, the chances disproportionately skewed towards the 'ruling over radioactive rubble' side of things for them than the Palestinians.
I think it's completely possible the West keeps funding Ukraine, maybe pays for some private military companies to help it too to make up for the manpower shortage. Russia goes deeper into debt, eventually their economy collapses, Ukraine wins by default. I don't know what exact number I'd put on that, but if the West doesn't give up on Ukraine, I'd maybe give it a 20% chance?
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Maybe about the same as pushing Russia back to post-Crimean Annexation borders. Maybe less, considering I've seen no indication at all Egypt or Jordan is up for another round.
But inciting hot jihad between everyone else in the ME and Israel doesn't mean the Palestinians win; it doesn't even mean the Israelis lose.
Yeah I'm not saying it's a good plan (or that Hamas even has a plan) -- but it's a plausible path. Maybe the only one.
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