nopie
4mo ago
Sorry, I don't engage in obvious falsehoods.
I have so many Kremlin apologists doubting that MH17 happened. I don't have time and energy to respond to all this. It is not very productive use of my time.
Doubting Bucha when we have so much confirmed evidence is pointless. It is what before we used to call FUD at the start of internet. I am that old.
I think that HIV is rather irrelevant in the US because most people, including drug addicts have correct beliefs about it. They will try to use clean needles when injecting to avoid getting infected and so on.
I just look at this from public health point of view – if beliefs are causing people to make wrong health choices, then how can we change those beliefs?
Atul Gawande writes in detail how polio vaccination programs worked in India. The organizers knew that some people have beliefs that polio vaccine is causing disease or making people infertile etc. They also knew that shaming people or forcing vaccine doesn't work. If someone refuses, calmly explain why vaccine is beneficial and move on. In one episode the supervisor who otherwise was calm about all problems, got angry to vaccinator who berated a mother for refusing to vaccinate her child. He said, “she was listening to you before but now she will not listen at all”.
This approach was slow but successful, polio was eradicated in India. One has to be very stoic by allowing people to make wrong choices and then empathising with them when bad things happen without the slightest reproach.
Somehow we forgot all this and during covid acted very irresponsibly by forcing people to get vaccinated, by shaming them officially etc. Child vaccination rates predictably are going to fall and it will be hard work to improve them again.
With HIV beliefs in Africa, it's probably because we don't have vaccine against HIV so they never had contacts with field workers like that. Those people with HIV in Africa who happen to be involved in programs that provide treatment, quickly understand how all this work. But there is no a systemic reach like going from home to home to vaccinate or treat everyone.
The leaders could do that but they are tribal leaders. They have no capabilities to think or act rationally. It requires deep political scheming to entice them to implement such programs. The WHO is often accused to be working for China and other dictators but I don't see a way how they could not be. Otherwise those dictators are not going to listen to them.
nopie
5mo ago
1% of a national budget spending on strong antibiotics, that would terrify me. Clearly that cannot be right.
Obviously costs include much more than cost of drugs but workforce, transportation, storage in Philippines most likely are cheap. Drugs for treating resistant TB are expensive but not that expensive to be 1% of the national budget.
Maybe they are, I don't know. My intuition is that USAID probably spends 5% on medicines and 95% on everything else, salaries to western volunteers, rent etc. that are normal for the US but very high compared to local prices. The local government could probably do it for a fraction of cost.
nopie
6mo ago
Not everybody noticed that Lex's Russian is actually poor. He is a native Russian speaker but his vocabulary is stuck at the level of 11-year-old and is not sufficient for discussing complex and abstract ideas. When speaking Russian, he takes long pauses and uses simple sentences. Somewhere he even mentioned that he is not fluent in Russian.
Zelensky's Russian is much better but clearly he decided against it, apparently he thought that it will not improve his chances to be better accepted by Russian speaking community. He explained that he tried speaking in Russian shortly after invasion in 2022 and no one listened to him. He is probably right. While translation is less effective than direct address, Ukrainian is actually similar sounding to Russian and if a Russian speaking person has a positive attitude towards Zelensky, he will enjoy listening to his Ukrainian (it has some nice sounding vibes) while reading subtitles.
Zelensky is also right – if someone doesn't want to hear, he will not hear what you are saying, regardless which language.
nopie
2mo ago
People have been expecting Trump comebacks all the time and somehow he always did. At least with elections, he still had his genius. But ultimately everyone succumbs to old age and loses everything. It is very hard to accept the ultimate demise but with Trump it is now. With Biden most people including Scott Alexander managed to live in denial until the end of his term. Could happen the same with Trump.
How would you differentiate “lost a step” and “suffering from dementia”? Dementia is exactly like that, initially mildly losing a step, with some better days and some worse days. Trump has always been very erratic and that's why many people don't notice. But if you are able to separate his rhetoric, you could see that now he has lost a plot.
nopie
2mo ago
It has happened before: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v.Joseph(2019)
Not very likely that it will lead to guilty verdict. Probably will be a slap on wrist.
Maybe it is a bet that now times are different. I don't know but I tend to think that this bet will fail and it will be another loss of popularity to Trump administration. They are total losers who are on a fast track to self destruction. Good luck to them!
nopie
2mo ago
"You should deal with COVID a certain way Or We'll All Die" has built-in life-or-death stakes,
The problem is that it is not true. Covid wasn't ”we'll all die”, it was just framed that way.
nopie
4mo ago
Obviously the support for Zelensky is high. The fact that we cannot know the percentage with high precision doesn't mean that we don't know the percentage with error margin that is less than ±10%.
Is his course good for Ukrainian people? Who knows. I personally think that Ukrainians are too obstinate to consider they could ever get Crimea and other territories back. It prevents them thinking more about how to protect the rest of Ukraine. But that's their choice. Ignoring this will not be productive. Suppose the US forces Ukraine to do elections and Zelensky is again elected. Then what? Or someone else is elected with the same aspirations as Zelensky.
And forcing to elect a certain leader that yields to the US will lead to a new Maidan. Ukrainians want free elections not some US or Russian stooge.
nopie
4mo ago
I don't know the history well. FUD just means Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt. When internet was started (dialling in), everybody thought it will be a revolution but then spammers and FUD started. It can be about anything. It became clear that with open communications it is not easier to get true information as people are not inherently searching for truth but just want to express their opinions.
The great example is ivermectin effectiveness. Why this should be controversial? The story is very simple – we tried many things at the start of pandemic including ivermectin. There were some signals that it could be useful. But more studies were done and the signal disappeared. It happens with a lot of potential medicines. In about 10 prospective treatments only 1 passes final studies and are approved. Everybody can read data and this story. Starting from wikipedia and then Scott Alexander article for deeper interested laypersons. Specialists will simply read original sources. We have no controversy. Even Scott's assertion that it was ivermectin's anti-parasites effect that worked is a stretch and might not be true but I will assume that it is real.
Any information that somehow ivermectin effect is not resolved is FUD. I don't know why people continue bringing it up. Maybe they are really confused, maybe they have poor skills distinguishing real data from garbage, maybe they are propagandists or grifters. I don't care even if they are true believers. It is such a non-issue, not as close to that the earth is round but not that far either.
Obviously, sometimes we have to discuss things that the earth is round or that ivermectin is not effective. Usually with children or some learners. But it is boring to have such discussion in serious forums.
GDP by definition is an abstract measure of the country and not of an individual. It makes no sense to go back and say “hey, this one person is poor despite rising GDP”. Maybe some people are not able to see the big picture and will get stuck on individual examples?
Latvians suffered tremendously in the first years of the post-Soviet period. We never experienced famine, all the services were still working and everybody got basic healthcare and social needs covered. But income, or rather inflation made everyone very poor and limited of what we could buy. And the fact that goods finally were freely available in shops but no money to buy them probably was like psychological torture. Depression, alcoholism, suicides increased, life expectancy decreased.
Eventually the economy grew, people started earning more money, Latvia joined the EU which accelerated growth even more, some industries were restarted, yet many people emigrated to western countries for work because they wanted even higher income now instead of waiting 20-30 years until Latvia catches up with the west.
nopie
2mo ago
it sounds like an alien value
To be honest, it could be that some people have so different world view from others that it is indeed completely alien.
For me I cannot reconcile the idea that “societies didn't really need economic growth in the past”.
All societies wanted more, at all times. Obviously, some people are happy to be monks, live life in rejection of worldly pleasures and engage only in reading, talking about philosophy and commenting in online forums (he-he). I can understand them. But majority want more things, not less. It was never that they didn't need it, they simply couldn't have it.
And that is similarly true in the immediate post-Soviet-breakup aftermath: life expectancy dropped!
This proves again that economic growth is super important. Indeed, GDP dropped substantially in the shock after the breakup of the USSR. People didn't starve but they were very unhappy, alcoholism, depression, reduced healthcare etc. all contributed to shorter life expectancy.
Maybe this shock severely traumatized some people and that's why they still argue after 30 years that the Soviet system was better. Because it was so terrible experience in their lives, they are unable to see that eventually we recovered and greatly surpassed the Soviet baseline.
This was one of the reasons why I was so adamant against widespread lockdowns and closing of schools during covid. It traumatized children too much. In Latvia math results for children who missed this time at school are still considerably lower than to others. The whole generation will be less competitive in job market. Undeveloped social skills were already serious problem in some countries and all this made it even worse.
The economy suffered during covid but this time economists did the right thing by showering people with free money. It caused terrible inflation later on but they knew that effects of suffering from more poverty would cause even greater trauma similar to what people experienced after the breakup of the USSR. By their efforts it didn't happen and at least people were prevented from this trauma. Most people don't even realize that economists are the real heroes in the pandemic.
I think that both left and right makes the same mistake by not valuing economy enough.
Obviously, all people in the past depended on economy 100%. When it was on a subsistence level and they run out of game to hunt, they had to change to agriculture. When crops failed, a lot of people died from famine etc.
Only relatively recently in the history we have something more in our lives than just food to survive. But some of the values that ensure growth are not intuitive, for example, free trade. No wonder people have difficulty getting their heads around.
When Latvia got independence from the USSR, its nationalistic government didn't think clearly about economy, their idea was that we are finally free from the Soviet occupiers we should concentrate on agriculture and close all factories because they pollute. That shows this primeval thinking of economy only as a food source. In a way it is right, we would die without food. But they were unable to grasp the idea that economy is something bigger than that and people got very unhappy when they couldn't get stuff other than food. Food is to survive, what makes life worth living are other things that is not food.
nopie
2mo ago
Sleepy doesn't mean senile.
At the end even Scott Alexander admitted that Biden was senile and had to write a post apologising why he didn't see it sooner.
Now Trump is boasting that he is better than a senile man. If I was a Trump's fan, I would find it disgraceful.
nopie
2mo ago
I think nothing is more important than economy. People talk about different values and in that sense we need more than economy, for example, democracy and pure air (ecology). But economy is a central thing that allows the country to thrive because everything is based on it. It is just that historically the growth was non-existent (0.01% per year) therefore not many past thinkers have mentioned it in the list of good values. We need to add this to the constitution of every country that achieving growth is very important.
nopie
2mo ago
that seems to be shaping up, as reported, of essentially forcing countries to choose between the US and China does make sense.
Yes, it forces other countries to choose China instead of the US. How does it make sense?
nopie
4mo ago
I think that a lot of young people today are very sympathetic to communist ideas especially in Latin America. I don't understand why, probably due to lack of growth, high unemployment, especially among young people.
For me it is unimaginable because I grew up in the USSR and we all hated it. Yet, a lot of old people are nostalgic towards the Soviet times. They had hard time to adapt to competitive system. I can understand that. Transition had to be done in more thoughtful manner. In Russia it is probably even worse due to widespread corruption and inequality.
We had to study communist ideology, read Marx and other works already at the primary school. It was very boring. I don't understand how people can find them inspiring at all. At the same time other teachers let us know, in short passages, what was wrong about the Soviet system. Biology teacher told about Lysenkoism, others mentioned deportations and so on. I think that we all grew up more like Kolgomorovs, knowing well what to say to authorities to survive, while retaining a different perspective in private. When Gorbachev started his glastnost (openness), the gates opened and the Soviet system could not survive.
I don't believe that this is a case with all communistic countries today. Maybe Cuba is similar but in North Korea people are probably too brainwashed and not sufficiently educated to be willing to reject communism.
nopie
4mo ago
To me it is interesting why Kennedy while believing the scientific evidence, delves so much into speculations that are known to be without strong evidence?
In a way, it could be healthy skepticism. We can benefit by examining our beliefs once in a while. Science changes, new evidence appears and sometimes people forget to update. But it doesn't seem what is happening here.
Maybe it is just that his tribal consciousness has become stronger with age that now it supersedes his rational thinking.
Most people are very tribal. They don't think deeply and just repeat what their tribe leaders tell them. Only a rare person is looking for truth. That is a hard work and requires to be in constant defiance towards the rest of the society who is very tribal. At the end you get tired and decide to live like everybody else, have an easier life and even make some profit.
nopie
4mo ago
Most Ukrainians are not in army, it doesn't mean they wouldn't resist if suddenly Russians would appear to take their homes.
A lot of Ukrainians work for army, produce weapons etc. but not actively fighting.
Zelensky saved a lot of Ukrainians lives. Without his actions more deaths would have happened.
Russians do not slaughter more civilians in Ukraine because they are not able to. That's how powerful Zelensky's defence is.
Obviously, Russia is still very powerful and is able to take over more territory but it is relatively small size.
Not believing that Bucha is reality is like believing that ivermectin is effective in treating covid and covid vaccines are pure poison (instead of not very effective in stopping infection but moderately effective in elderly reducing death and severe outcomes).
nopie
3mo ago
Without new evidence you might see some governments abolish or discourage it specifically for children, but others will continue to feed a fraction of every new generation into the trans pipeline and even places that get rid of it could easily flip back in a generation.
I don't think that this is going to happen. The progress can be slow at times but following evidence-based practice is not a partisan thing, it is just a way forward. Takes a lot of work, hard work assessing evidence, figuring it all out, learning who can you trust since no one person is able to do fully etc.
It is said that currently about 50% of medical practices are not strictly evidence based. It takes time to re-evaluate everything, do high quality studies and so on. Many doctors have their own biases and can be very resistant to change. Maybe it will never be that their recommendations are 100% or even 99% based on good evidence. But I expect that it will become better with time as it is much better than it was 50 or 100 years ago. Maybe there will be some temporary setbacks in some places. That is also expected and in a way it is also good as it will provide a control group :)
Thanks for this overview.
In Latvia melatonin is over the counter and people sometimes buy it but generally they find it ineffective. Benzos are commonly prescribed although recently the health authorities have started to push back. Still, when someone is hospitalized, the patient is almost always given alprazolam at night. My elderly mother doesn't like benzos and she has to instruct the hospital staff every time to not give any benzos to her. She tells that she has a paradoxical reaction to them that she becomes even more agitated. You would think that by now it would mentioned in her medical records but no, she still has to actively refuse them every time. I think doctors are completely irresponsible in this regard. There was a case of one famous elderly person dying from a fall while normally walking through the city. I am 100% that was due to benzos she was prescribed.
Quetiapine gets prescribed a lot for sleep but in cases when doctors suspect that anxiety or depression is the cause. In the UK it is much more restricted. Quetiapine on prescription indicates rather serious psychiatric problems or strong anxiety that is not resolved by usual antidepressants. Tricyclic antidepresants especially mirtazapine or amitriptyline get often prescribed as sleeping pills too especially when if pain keeps a person awake at night but can also prescribed just for sleep.
Interestingly that melatonin is prescription only in the UK. Most commonly it is prescribed to autistic children. I cannot believe that it works so well for them but carers seem desperate to get the prescription filled. I wonder if a placebo effect by proxy is involved. The UK guidelines are very strict that no medication is effective for autism, so all benzos, antipsychotics, even antidepressants are out of question unless one can prove respective co-morbidity indication.
You don't need to worry. Ukrainians will not surrender. I give greater chances that they will die out as a nation due to bad demographics than they would be living under Russian government.
Eastern regions are more Russian populated, the language is dialect continuum between Ukrainian and Russian and their loyalties might be more towards Moscow than Kyiv but the rest of Ukraine is strongly nationalistic.
Think about Palestine and Israel, unsolvable problem because Palestinians are imbued with hate towards Jews. They don't care about their own country, only how to harm Israel. That's how bad nationalism works but it is a reality that no one knows how to solve.
Ukraine is similarly 100% imbued with idea that Russians are their oppressors. Except that in this case they really are. Russification worked better during the Soviet times because technically it was an independent republic. I think it even had its own seat at the UN then. The Soviet government was more like a local tragedy (like Trump in America) and not occupation.
Anyone harbouring hopes that if we let Russia win and occupy whole Ukraine thus creating peace and stop people from dying does not know anything about Ukraine. They read dry analysis that doesn't tell what real people in Ukraine feel.
I learned about Ukrainians during my time with Hare Krishnas. When the movement sizzled in the US, it became very popular in Russia and other Soviet countries. Hare Krishnas are very apolitical, their only interest in politics is if the governments will let them do what they want to do – preach, sell books, distribute food, dance on streets etc. For many hinduism is not a religion you can convert to, it is something you are born into. With Hare Krishnas it is that they go deeper and consider that your material body, your family origin is temporary and irrelevant, you are eternal soul and your natural tendency is to be a Hare Krishna. Apparently putting on robes, dancing on streets, changing diet to strictly vegetarian, even leaving the family and practically becoming a monk requires strong determination to throw away previous conceptions and in practice I didn't observe any discrimination due to nationality, race or previous status in this movement. You could criticise them for many things but not for racism.
I was living among many Hare Krishna devotees for several years and the cooperation and trust between them was phenomenal. I have never seen a better community since then. But sometimes we talked about our origins which country we are coming and what traditions we used to practice before. Devotees from Central Asia told me about their islamic practices like ramadan etc. Georgians made hachapuris, their national dish. Ukrainians however mostly told stories about Russians, how they were suffering under their rule (Holodomor), different jokes that put Russians into bad light etc. It didn't create any enmity though. The understanding was that it is all past and nationalistic designations no longer apply to devotees and it seemed they had all overcome this.
But these Hare Krishnas are practically monks. They are not like regular people who still hold these grudges. I could better judge how deep this resentment against Russians goes into Ukrainian psyche because as devotees they became more open, more willing to share these stories, to analyse and discard them as material contamination on their path to spiritual uplifting. But when I had to travel to Lviv, they warned me not to speak Russian on the street because I might get beaten by locals. I speak Russian but not Ukrainian, so it would be better for me to pretend not speaking Russian and use English instead. I spoke Russian anyway and didn't get beaten and they were nice, probably they sensed that I have an accent in Russian.
In short: anybody who thinks that you can ask Ukrainians (Zelensky is irrelevant, any other leader will be required to do the same or will be removed by another maidan) to make peace with Russia, should first show that he can make Palestinians to make peace with Israel. I mean why this is even a problem? Invite them to come to the White House, sign the peace treaty and they live in peace forever, right? Build a high wall between both countries to avoid unintended incursions and everybody is happy. Where is the problem?
Less intelligent decisions are one thing but doing senseless things are completely another.
Trump's dealings with tariffs make no sense. Some people continue to refer to hidden motives but by now we are aware that this is not the case. He is not capable to fulfil the duties and is greatly harming the US. It's only going to be worse with every day. A lot of loyal people will be in denial. Just like many still believe in Havana syndrome as real or something like that. And his election was mostly luck. Democrats hid Biden's dementia and people felt cheated and decided to punish them for this. It just happened that Trump was the candidate. Could have been any other guy. Now people will be even more angry when they realize they have been cheated again.
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