Yes, 15-25% is also my feeling. Maybe more. Because it is possible be that the countermeasures will last much longer. Germany was bankrupt in 1917, yet it took until 1924 for the full crash to come...
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Yes, 15-25% is also my feeling. Maybe more. Because it is possible be that the countermeasures will last much longer. Germany was bankrupt in 1917, yet it took until 1924 for the full crash to come...
119/71 is not right up against the edge of "elevated" blood pressure at all but completely normal.
Just to better classify the risk factors for cardiovascular events (sudden cardiac death, heart attack, stroke, essentially):
First of all, blood pressure is one risk factor among many. The fewer risk factors you have, the more relaxed you can be. The two main risk factors are age (!) and gender (male), followed by: smoking, diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, family history of disease (not your grandmother who had a stroke at 80, but a cardiovascular event before the age of 55 in men and 65 in women), and hypertension. And no, BMI alone is not an independent risk factor.
Secondly, the risk associated with high blood pressure follows a J-curve. See, for example: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41440-024-01593-y (page 1552). At a blood pressure of <110 mmHg, the risk increases again... Between 120-135 mmHg, nothing changes, nor does anything happen at 70-85 mmHg. Hence the recommendation (in Europe at least): <140/90 mmHg, and <135/85 mmHg for high-risk patients.
Unfortunately, the pharmaceutical industry is constantly trying to invent new diseases, push boundaries, and influence guidelines. This is not a conspiracy theory; anyone in the healthcare sector would confirm this, and you only need to look at the guidelines from the last 30 years. As HereAndGone2 writes: " Blood pressure categories in the new guideline are: Normal: Less than 120/80 mm Hg; Elevated: Top number (systolic) between 120-129 and bottom number (diastolic) less than 80; Stage 1: Systolic between 130-139 or diastolic between 80-89; Stage 2: Systolic at least 140 or diastolic at least 90 mm Hg; Hypertensive crisis: Top number over 180 and/or bottom number over 120, with patients needing prompt changes in medication if there are no other indications of problems, or immediate hospitalization if there are signs of organ damage." That is definitely not evidence-based.
Finally, one more consideration: let's assume a person is 40 years old, has no risk factors except perhaps slightly elevated cholesterol, does exercise, is fit. His cardiovascular risk is 2% in 10 years with a blood pressure of 125/75 mmHg. The same person develops a blood pressure of 150/90 mmHg. The risk increases by +40%. So, in absolute terms, 0.8% in 10 years. This means that treatment only makes sense if the side effect rate is <0.8%/10 years. Which medication can achieve this? The same person at age 75, risk 16% without blood pressure. With hypertension +6.4% in absolute terms – the risk-benefit ratio looks very different.
That's why I would never just look at values, but always assess the "total package."
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