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aqouta  1mo ago (text post)   Edited 1mo ago   950 thread views

2026 prediction thread

As we roll into the end of 2025 I think it'd be good to have a thread in the rationalist tradition of putting down predictions with confidence ratings for 2026. Feel free to take the my list and make your own predictions off them and/or add new things to predict and I'll add them to the op with my own prediction. I'll put my predictions in spoilers at the end. Feel free to critique other people's predictions but for fairness if you're going to say someone's prediction is wrong you should supply your own odds as well. Of course let me know if any of these categories are under defined.

By December 31st 2026

AI:

  1. Yudkowski declares AGI/ASI Achieved
  2. We have federal regulation passed through congress to regulate AI
  3. Anthropic announces IPO
  4. A Chinese model is released that is widely considered to be the best coding model(not just on price per token)
  5. AI System wins an award for a significant contribution in mathematics
  6. A lab releases a fully autonomous drop-in worker agent that at least five fortune 200 companies implement
  7. OpenAI revenue exceeds $30 billion
  8. A frontier lab experiences a security incident that requires public disclosure

US Domestic politics:

  1. Democrats have a majority in the House
  2. Democrats have a majority in the Senate
  3. Trump Approval rating exceeds 50% at any point
  4. A government shutdown exceeds 14 days
  5. total deportation in 2026 exceed 500k
  6. Mamadani implements fare free busses city wide
  7. Mamdani implements at least three state run grocery stores
  8. Trump is impeached
  9. A Major political figure is assassinated(Congress/SCOTUS Judge/Executive cabinet member)

Wars:

  1. Israel-palestine conflict reignites
  2. Ukraine war ceasefire lasts greater than 30 days at any point
  3. China invades Taiwan
  4. US officially at war with Venezuela at any point

China:

  1. Official GDP growth below 4%
  2. Youth unemployment (16-24) reported above 15% at any point in 2026
  3. Major Chinese property developer (top 20) enters formal bankruptcy
  4. SMIC achieves volume production at 5nm or below

Economics:

  1. US enters recession (2 consecutive quarters negative GDP growth)
  2. S&P 500 higher on 12/31/26 than 12/31/25
  3. US unemployment rate exceeds 5% at any point
  4. Bitcoin above $150k at any point
  5. YoY inflation exceeds 4%

Technology:

  1. Starship upper stage (Ship) successfully lands (caught or propulsive landing)
  2. Blue Origin New Glenn completes 5+ successful launches
  3. Tesla releases vehicle with SAE Level 4 autonomy to consumers
  4. US approves new nuclear reactor construction (not SMR)

AI: 1. Yudkowski declares AGI/ASI Achieved: 10% 2. We have federal regulation passed through congress to regulate AI: 30% 3. Anthropic announces IPO: 60% 4. A Chinese model is released that is widely considered to be the best coding model(not just on price per token): 10% 5. AI System wins an award for a significant contribution in mathematics: 50% 6. A lab releases a fully autonomous drop-in worker agent that at least five fortune 200 companies implement: 30% 7. OpenAI revenue exceeds $30 billion: 80% 8. A frontier lab experiences a security incident that requires public disclosure:20% US Domestic politics: 1. Democrats have a majority in the House: 80% 2. Democrats have a majority in the Senate: 60% 3. Trump Approval rating exceeds 50% at any point: 10% 4. A government shutdown exceeds 14 days: 30% 5. total deportation in 2026 exceed 500k: 10% 6. Mamadani implements fare free busses city wide: 40% 7. Mamdani implements at least three state run grocery stores: 15% 8. Trump is impeached: 20% 9. A Major political figure is assassinated(Congress/SCOTUS Judge/Executive cabinet member):10% Wars: 1. Israel-palestine conflict reignites: 20% 2. Ukraine war ceasefire lasts greater than 30 days at any point: 20% 3. China invades Taiwan: 10% 4. US officially at war with Venezuela at any point: 20% China: 1. Official GDP growth below 4%: 25% 2. Youth unemployment (16-24) reported above 15% at any point in 2026: 30% 3. Major Chinese property developer (top 20) enters formal bankruptcy:40% 4. SMIC achieves volume production at 5nm or below: 10% Economics: 1. US enters recession (2 consecutive quarters negative GDP growth): 25% 2. S&P 500 higher on 12/31/26 than 12/31/25: 70% 3. US unemployment rate exceeds 5% at any point: 50% 4. Bitcoin above $150k at any point: 50% 5. YoY inflation exceeds 4%: 50% Technology: 1. Starship upper stage (Ship) successfully lands (caught or propulsive landing): 60% 2. Blue Origin New Glenn completes 5+ successful launches: 65% 3. Tesla releases vehicle with SAE Level 4 autonomy to consumers: 50% 4. US approves new nuclear reactor construction (not SMR): 30%

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I am still hugely confused by those numbers and what they mean, and have no idea how to quantify these things, so I will just put my predictions in words.

  • Yudkowski declares AGI/ASI Achieved - Too early for 2026, but I don't really care tbh.
  • We have federal regulation passed through congress to regulate AI - Some regulation, maybe, even likely, really comprehensive one - probably not yet, too much of a moving target.
  • Anthropic announces IPO - Could be, but looks a bit too early and I understand they have enough money anyway?
  • A Chinese model is released that is widely considered to be the best coding model(not just on price per token) - Nah, don't believe it. I can give them "cheap and barely adequate if you squint enough" but "best in class, no questions asked" sounds very unlikely.
  • AI System wins an award for a significant contribution in mathematics - Plausible. I mean, it only requires one award committee to decide it. There are many award committees. Some of them are not averse to publicity, likely. And by now nobody among the normies (including me and pretty much everybody I know, for example) can distinguish "significant contribution" from a bag of nonsense anyway.
  • A lab releases a fully autonomous drop-in worker agent that at least five fortune 200 companies implement - nope, not for any reasonable meaning of "implement".
  • OpenAI revenue exceeds $30 billion - 3x current revenue seems to be a bit too much, I could go for 2x though.
  • A frontier lab experiences a security incident that requires public disclosure - very likely. Though "requires disclosure" and "is actually disclosed" is not the same thing...

  • Democrats have a majority in the House - about 50-50
  • Democrats have a majority in the Senate - same, about 50-50
  • Trump Approval rating exceeds 50% at any point - according to who? Some pollsters give him over 50% right now, some do not. Seems a bit too vague.
  • A government shutdown exceeds 14 days - 50-50, depending on how the parties see their electoral chances
  • total deportation in 2026 exceed 500k - I'd like to see it but unlikely, a lot of "deportations" counted seem to be at the border, and border traffic have gone down significantly. Low hanging fruit are already processed mostly. So likely what is left would not be enough to get 500k.
  • Mamadani implements fare free busses city wide - there probably would be some free buses. City-wide is a very vague term. In general, MTA fare revenue is ~4B per year. That's about 3.5% of city budget. If he wants it enough, he could find funds to cover it. But more likely, he would just put up some amount of free buses along the routes which had historically low fare collection rates, and declare victory.
  • Mamdani implements at least three state run grocery stores - three is a low number. Even a communist, given hundreds of billions of dollars, can open three stores that survive for a year.
  • Trump is impeached - not in 2026. Though if Dems take the House, 2027 impeachment is very likely - why not, it's fun for the whole family and costs them nothing.
  • A Major political figure is assassinated(Congress/SCOTUS Judge/Executive cabinet member) - impossible to know, but unlikely - successful assassinations are hard.

  • Israel-palestine conflict reignites - it never de-ignited, and 2026 is the year when Israel has to decide whether to go all in on destroying Hamas, or prepare for Oct 7 repeat in 10 years. I suspect Bibi will go all in.
  • Ukraine war ceasefire lasts greater than 30 days at any point - not very likely, Putin is getting the territory anyway, albeit slowly, but he has nowhere to rush.
  • China invades Taiwan - don't think so, not yet
  • US officially at war with Venezuela at any point - probably not "officially", US Presidents are very reluctant to ask Congress for an official war, and Venezuela is certainly not an imminent danger to the US. There might be some "kinetic action" though.

  • China - I abstain, don't know enough about China

  • US enters recession (2 consecutive quarters negative GDP growth) - unlikely
  • S&P 500 higher on 12/31/26 than 12/31/25 - very likely
  • US unemployment rate exceeds 5% at any point - no, likely would stay under 5%, though some fluctuation like 5.0-5.1% might happen
  • Bitcoin above $150k at any point - more no than yes, given it's at $90K now. It'll go over $100K almost certainly but $150k I think not (fair warning: I am extremely bad at predicting things like this)
  • YoY inflation exceeds 4% - very unlikely, fed is determined to keep it low, and it was under 4% since 2023. Now, if you go beyond the official numbers, there be dragons...

  • Starship upper stage (Ship) successfully lands (caught or propulsive landing) - no prediction, only hopes
  • Blue Origin New Glenn completes 5+ successful launches - as I see they only have 4 launches planned in 2026, so probably no?
  • Tesla releases vehicle with SAE Level 4 autonomy to consumers - As I understand Waymo is at level 4 for a while now, and other models in China are too. Time for Tesla to catch up! I think they can.
  • US approves new nuclear reactor construction (not SMR) - very much hope so, though unfortunately Trump doing this would mean every leftist would reflectively hate the nuclear for the next 40 years, which after they have been hating it for the last 40 years is very sad.

France may be far away for you, but in my opinion, the consequences of this prediction will have repercussions throughout the world. France's deficit is well over 5% of GDP and France has no functioning government. There is no majority in parliament. Furthermore, there are no libertarian parties in France. Government spending is rising inexorably. France's credit rating has already been downgraded several times by the rating agencies – and quite rightly so. Currently, the ECB is buying bonds through the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI). The TPI is equivalent to the central bank printing money for a country, completely contradicts the purpose of the ECB's introduction, and will inevitably leads to inflation. However, the ECB is only allowed to buy bonds on the secondary market. Now for my prediction for 2026: at some point, the market will stop buying French bonds, causing interest rates to explode, which will lead to a severe euro crisis, the collapse of the euro and – since this will not be accepted – introduction of capital controls and the introduction of the EUSSR. If this doesn´t happen in 2026, it will come at latest 2027. The only thing that can save France from being the cause of a global crisis is if the currency crisis hits the US first.

I am not sure I understand the details though. Like, can't ECB just decide to keep printing euros (in whatever form it takes, I am sure they can find a way), under the premise that France is too big to fail? I mean, France and Germany are like half of the EU economy, if they are OK with something I imagine EU is OK with it too. And Germany has pretty much the same deficit France has, so it's not like they have a standing to complain. Additionally, we have Russia, so if anybody would agitate for capital austerity, he'd be told "not now dummy, can't you see we're on the brink of war here?!" If you believe Eurostat, inflation is very low so nothing to worry about, right?

That's certainly a big prediction. I'd put something like 15% odds on a big Euro crisis, what do you think would be a reasonable likelihood?

Yes, 15-25% is also my feeling. Maybe more. Because it is possible be that the countermeasures will last much longer. Germany was bankrupt in 1917, yet it took until 1924 for the full crash to come...

No bet on when it happens in 2026. The arc of human happiness may have a sharp dip before the hockey stick.

But I will wager that by December 31st, 2026 there will be peace on earth and good will to all men. One way or the other.

I hope you're right.

My very quick estimates, little more that gut feelings + looking a bit for sources:

AI:

  • Yudkowski declares AGI/ASI Achieved: Pass.
  • We have federal regulation passed through congress to regulate AI: 10%
  • Anthropic announces IPO: 40%
  • A Chinese model is released that is widely considered to be the best coding model(not just on price per token): 20%
  • AI System wins an award for a significant contribution in mathematics: Pass
  • A lab releases a fully autonomous drop-in worker agent that at least five fortune 200 companies implement: NA. Very dependent on what marketing term people use.
  • OpenAI revenue exceeds $30 billion: 50%
  • A frontier lab experiences a security incident that requires public disclosure: 40%

US Domestic politics:

  • Democrats have a majority in the House: 75%
  • Democrats have a majority in the Senate: 40%
  • Trump Approval rating exceeds 50% at any point: 30%
  • A government shutdown exceeds 14 days: 25%, but not sure.
  • total deportation in 2026 exceed 500k: 60%
  • Mamadani implements fare free busses city wide: Pass
  • Mamdani implements at least three state run grocery stores: 10%
  • Trump is impeached: 5%
  • A Major political figure is assassinated(Congress/SCOTUS Judge/Executive cabinet member): 7% if only those specific categories, if including someone like Charlie Kirk them much higher.

Wars:

  • Israel-palestine conflict reignites: 70%, has already done so
  • Ukraine war ceasefire lasts greater than 30 days at any point: 70%
  • China invades Taiwan: 5%
  • US officially at war with Venezuela at any point: 20%, hard for Congress to give the go ahead.

China:

  • Official GDP growth below 4%: 30%
  • Youth unemployment (16-24) reported above 15% at any point in 2026. 15%, going with https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1dpDA
  • Major Chinese property developer (top 20) enters formal bankruptcy. Pass
  • SMIC achieves volume production at 5nm or below. Pass

Economics:

Technology:

  • Starship upper stage (Ship) successfully lands (caught or propulsive landing). Pass
  • Blue Origin New Glenn completes 5+ successful launches. Pass
  • Tesla releases vehicle with SAE Level 4 autonomy to consumers. 40%
  • US approves new nuclear reactor construction (not SMR). 55%

Yudkowski declares AGI/ASI Achieved

Very doubtful, as that would imply (to a lot of people at least) that Bad Things should happen in the very short-term future, and if those Bad Things don't materialize then he'll look foolish. Yudkowsky has steadfastly refused to make any falsifiable predictions so far, so I don't see why he'd get close to one now.

We have federal regulation passed through congress to regulate AI

Any regulation? You should probably specify that you think it will be big regulation, like how the DMCA was for Internet copyright. Obviously there will probably be something that at least affects AI in some small way.

A Chinese model is released that is widely considered to be the best coding model(not just on price per token)

Is this a "China's model robustly surpasses the West" take, or is it a more modest take that you think something like Deepseek will join the rotating list of 4 frontier companies? I could see the latter perhaps with like a 30% chance this year, while the former is highly unlikely.

A lab releases a fully autonomous drop-in worker agent that at least five fortune 200 companies implement

Hell no, not gonna happen. As I've said, there's too many missing capabilities in terms of general computer use and long context management, and those are not easy problems to solve. Well, maybe a lab will release a broken version and a few companies will try it before dropping it, but if you consider that to satisfy your prediction then it's probably already been satisfied in 2025 or even 2024.

Very doubtful, as that would imply (to a lot of people at least) that Bad Things should happen in the very short-term future, and if those Bad Things don't materialize then he'll look foolish. Yudkowsky has steadfastly refused to make any falsifiable predictions so far, so I don't see why he'd get close to one now.

Yeah, my odds aren't very high for it, It was hard to come up with something to capture if this is the year we get recursive self improvement and things go hyperbolic.

Any regulation? You should probably specify that you think it will be big regulation, like how the DMCA was for Internet copyright. Obviously there will probably be something that at least affects AI in some small way.

Congress doesn't pass a lot of bills. I guess I should say that a minor rider on another bill doesn't count, stand alone legislation that's main purpose is the regulation of AI.

Is this a "China's model robustly surpasses the West" take, or is it a more modest take that you think something like Deepseek will join the rotating list of 4 frontier companies?

It passes if for any time China has the top coding model so it wouldn't need to be particularly robust, just be state of the art and hit in between the top US lab cycles. In practice they would probably just need to join the list of the top frontier companies as all of them but grok have traded off that position occasionally in my opinion. I should probably pick a benchmark but there are a lot and it's hard to say which will even be relevant in a year. I'm trusting Dec 31st 2026 aqouta's taste with evaluation.

Hell no, not gonna happen. As I've said, there's too many missing capabilities in terms of general computer use and long context management, and those are not easy problems to solve. Well, maybe a lab will release a broken version and a few companies will try it before dropping it, but if you consider that to satisfy your prediction then it's probably already been satisfied in 2025 or even 2024.

Only time will tell, things are moving fast. I don't need the company to be run entirely autonomously, just some slots in some roles being done entirely by an ai drop in worker. I'd accept promising trial announcements that aren't rolled back.

Israel-palestine conflict reignites

Prediction: Sun rises tomorrow.

So 100%?

Has it stopped?

Sorry, I'm being flippant. I don't follow Israel/Palestine beyond it being the background radiation of international news for my entire life. As such it strikes me as almost humorous to predict it might re-ignite when its continual conflict appears as perennial as the sun rising.

There's been a ceasefire since October.

I think the US being officially at war with Venezuela is very slim maybe <5 %. They never officially declared war on Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan etc.

I would put invasion at around 15-25% though.

Didn't Yudkowsky already declare Claude Opus 4.5 an AGI?

This is another vague, plausibly deniable statement from him. Very on-brand for Yudkowsky. It's not firm enough that he couldn't just deny it later.

AI:

  1. Yudkowski declares AGI/ASI Achieved 10%
  2. We have federal regulation passed through congress to regulate AI 30%
  3. Anthropic announces IPO 35%
  4. A Chinese model is released that is widely considered to be the best coding model(not just on price per token) 15%
  5. AI System wins an award for a significant contribution in mathematics 30%
  6. A lab releases a fully autonomous drop-in worker agent that at least five fortune 200 companies implement 20%
  7. OpenAI revenue exceeds $30 billion 25%
  8. A frontier lab experiences a security incident that requires public disclosure 50%

US Domestic politics:

  1. Democrats have a majority in the House 80%
  2. Democrats have a majority in the Senate 30%
  3. Trump Approval rating exceeds 50% at any point 15%
  4. A government shutdown exceeds 14 days 15%
  5. total deportation in 2026 exceed 500k 50%
  6. Mamadani implements fare free busses city wide 60%
  7. Mamdani implements at least three state run grocery stores 30%
  8. Trump is impeached 10%
  9. A Major political figure is assassinated(Congress/SCOTUS Judge/Executive cabinet member) 20%

Wars:

  1. Israel-palestine conflict reignites 30%
  2. Ukraine war ceasefire lasts greater than 30 days at any point 40%
  3. China invades Taiwan 15%
  4. US officially at war with Venezuela at any point 15%

China:

  1. Official GDP growth below 4% 35%
  2. Youth unemployment (16-24) reported above 15% at any point in 2026 Lol idk
  3. Major Chinese property developer (top 20) enters formal bankruptcy Lol idk
  4. SMIC achieves volume production at 5nm or below Lol idk

Economics:

  1. US enters recession (2 consecutive quarters negative GDP growth) 20%
  2. S&P 500 higher on 12/31/26 than 12/31/25 55%
  3. US unemployment rate exceeds 5% at any point 40%
  4. Bitcoin above $150k at any point 25%
  5. YoY inflation exceeds 4% 35%

Technology:

  1. Starship upper stage (Ship) successfully lands (caught or propulsive landing) Lol idk
  2. Blue Origin New Glenn completes 5+ successful launches Lol idk
  3. Tesla releases vehicle with SAE Level 4 autonomy to consumers 40%
  4. US approves new nuclear reactor construction (not SMR) 20%

China invades Taiwan 15%

A Major political figure is assassinated(Congress/SCOTUS Judge/Executive cabinet member) 20%

These seem a bit high, but otherwise reasonable. Some leeway in how to interpret "approves new nuclear reactor construction".

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