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aqouta  17hr ago (text post)   Edited 11hr ago   236 thread views

2026 prediction thread

As we roll into the end of 2025 I think it'd be good to have a thread in the rationalist tradition of putting down predictions with confidence ratings for 2026. Feel free to take the my list and making your own predictions off them and/or add new things to predict and I'll add them to the op with my own prediction. I'll put my predictions in spoilers at the end. Feel free to critique other people's predictions but for fairness if you're going to say someone's prediction is wrong you should supply your own odds as well. Of course let me know if any of these categories are under defined.

By December 31st 2026

AI:

  1. Yudkowski declares AGI/ASI Achieved
  2. We have federal regulation passed through congress to regulate AI
  3. Anthropic announces IPO
  4. A Chinese model is released that is widely considered to be the best coding model(not just on price per token)
  5. AI System wins an award for a significant contribution in mathematics
  6. A lab releases a fully autonomous drop-in worker agent that at least five fortune 200 companies implement
  7. OpenAI revenue exceeds $30 billion
  8. A frontier lab experiences a security incident that requires public disclosure

US Domestic politics:

  1. Democrats have a majority in the House
  2. Democrats have a majority in the Senate
  3. Trump Approval rating exceeds 50% at any point
  4. A government shutdown exceeds 14 days
  5. total deportation in 2026 exceed 500k
  6. Mamadani implements fare free busses city wide
  7. Mamdani implements at least three state run grocery stores
  8. Trump is impeached
  9. A Major political figure is assassinated(Congress/SCOTUS Judge/Executive cabinet member)

Wars:

  1. Israel-palestine conflict reignites
  2. Ukraine war ceasefire lasts greater than 30 days at any point
  3. China invades Taiwan
  4. US officially at war with Venezuela at any point

China:

  1. Official GDP growth below 4%
  2. Youth unemployment (16-24) reported above 15% at any point in 2026
  3. Major Chinese property developer (top 20) enters formal bankruptcy
  4. SMIC achieves volume production at 5nm or below

Economics:

  1. US enters recession (2 consecutive quarters negative GDP growth)
  2. S&P 500 higher on 12/31/26 than 12/31/25
  3. US unemployment rate exceeds 5% at any point
  4. Bitcoin above $150k at any point
  5. YoY inflation exceeds 4%

Technology:

  1. Starship upper stage (Ship) successfully lands (caught or propulsive landing)
  2. Blue Origin New Glenn completes 5+ successful launches
  3. Tesla releases vehicle with SAE Level 4 autonomy to consumers
  4. US approves new nuclear reactor construction (not SMR)

AI: 1. Yudkowski declares AGI/ASI Achieved: 10% 2. We have federal regulation passed through congress to regulate AI: 30% 3. Anthropic announces IPO: 60% 4. A Chinese model is released that is widely considered to be the best coding model(not just on price per token): 10% 5. AI System wins an award for a significant contribution in mathematics: 50% 6. A lab releases a fully autonomous drop-in worker agent that at least five fortune 200 companies implement: 30% 7. OpenAI revenue exceeds $30 billion: 80% 8. A frontier lab experiences a security incident that requires public disclosure:20% US Domestic politics: 1. Democrats have a majority in the House: 80% 2. Democrats have a majority in the Senate: 60% 3. Trump Approval rating exceeds 50% at any point: 10% 4. A government shutdown exceeds 14 days: 30% 5. total deportation in 2026 exceed 500k: 10% 6. Mamadani implements fare free busses city wide: 40% 7. Mamdani implements at least three state run grocery stores: 15% 8. Trump is impeached: 20% 9. A Major political figure is assassinated(Congress/SCOTUS Judge/Executive cabinet member):10% Wars: 1. Israel-palestine conflict reignites: 20% 2. Ukraine war ceasefire lasts greater than 30 days at any point: 20% 3. China invades Taiwan: 10% 4. US officially at war with Venezuela at any point: 20% China: 1. Official GDP growth below 4%: 25% 2. Youth unemployment (16-24) reported above 15% at any point in 2026: 30% 3. Major Chinese property developer (top 20) enters formal bankruptcy:40% 4. SMIC achieves volume production at 5nm or below: 10% Economics: 1. US enters recession (2 consecutive quarters negative GDP growth): 25% 2. S&P 500 higher on 12/31/26 than 12/31/25: 70% 3. US unemployment rate exceeds 5% at any point: 50% 4. Bitcoin above $150k at any point: 50% 5. YoY inflation exceeds 4%: 50% Technology: 1. Starship upper stage (Ship) successfully lands (caught or propulsive landing): 60% 2. Blue Origin New Glenn completes 5+ successful launches: 65% 3. Tesla releases vehicle with SAE Level 4 autonomy to consumers: 50% 4. US approves new nuclear reactor construction (not SMR): 30%

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Israel-palestine conflict reignites

Prediction: Sun rises tomorrow.

So 100%?

Didn't Yudkowsky already declare Claude Opus 4.5 an AGI?

AI:

  1. Yudkowski declares AGI/ASI Achieved 10%
  2. We have federal regulation passed through congress to regulate AI 30%
  3. Anthropic announces IPO 35%
  4. A Chinese model is released that is widely considered to be the best coding model(not just on price per token) 15%
  5. AI System wins an award for a significant contribution in mathematics 30%
  6. A lab releases a fully autonomous drop-in worker agent that at least five fortune 200 companies implement 20%
  7. OpenAI revenue exceeds $30 billion 25%
  8. A frontier lab experiences a security incident that requires public disclosure 50%

US Domestic politics:

  1. Democrats have a majority in the House 80%
  2. Democrats have a majority in the Senate 30%
  3. Trump Approval rating exceeds 50% at any point 15%
  4. A government shutdown exceeds 14 days 15%
  5. total deportation in 2026 exceed 500k 50%
  6. Mamadani implements fare free busses city wide 60%
  7. Mamdani implements at least three state run grocery stores 30%
  8. Trump is impeached 10%
  9. A Major political figure is assassinated(Congress/SCOTUS Judge/Executive cabinet member) 20%

Wars:

  1. Israel-palestine conflict reignites 30%
  2. Ukraine war ceasefire lasts greater than 30 days at any point 40%
  3. China invades Taiwan 15%
  4. US officially at war with Venezuela at any point 15%

China:

  1. Official GDP growth below 4% 35%
  2. Youth unemployment (16-24) reported above 15% at any point in 2026 Lol idk
  3. Major Chinese property developer (top 20) enters formal bankruptcy Lol idk
  4. SMIC achieves volume production at 5nm or below Lol idk

Economics:

  1. US enters recession (2 consecutive quarters negative GDP growth) 20%
  2. S&P 500 higher on 12/31/26 than 12/31/25 55%
  3. US unemployment rate exceeds 5% at any point 40%
  4. Bitcoin above $150k at any point 25%
  5. YoY inflation exceeds 4% 35%

Technology:

  1. Starship upper stage (Ship) successfully lands (caught or propulsive landing) Lol idk
  2. Blue Origin New Glenn completes 5+ successful launches Lol idk
  3. Tesla releases vehicle with SAE Level 4 autonomy to consumers 40%
  4. US approves new nuclear reactor construction (not SMR) 20%

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