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aqouta  7d ago (text post)   Edited 6d ago   776 thread views

2026 prediction thread

As we roll into the end of 2025 I think it'd be good to have a thread in the rationalist tradition of putting down predictions with confidence ratings for 2026. Feel free to take the my list and make your own predictions off them and/or add new things to predict and I'll add them to the op with my own prediction. I'll put my predictions in spoilers at the end. Feel free to critique other people's predictions but for fairness if you're going to say someone's prediction is wrong you should supply your own odds as well. Of course let me know if any of these categories are under defined.

By December 31st 2026

AI:

  1. Yudkowski declares AGI/ASI Achieved
  2. We have federal regulation passed through congress to regulate AI
  3. Anthropic announces IPO
  4. A Chinese model is released that is widely considered to be the best coding model(not just on price per token)
  5. AI System wins an award for a significant contribution in mathematics
  6. A lab releases a fully autonomous drop-in worker agent that at least five fortune 200 companies implement
  7. OpenAI revenue exceeds $30 billion
  8. A frontier lab experiences a security incident that requires public disclosure

US Domestic politics:

  1. Democrats have a majority in the House
  2. Democrats have a majority in the Senate
  3. Trump Approval rating exceeds 50% at any point
  4. A government shutdown exceeds 14 days
  5. total deportation in 2026 exceed 500k
  6. Mamadani implements fare free busses city wide
  7. Mamdani implements at least three state run grocery stores
  8. Trump is impeached
  9. A Major political figure is assassinated(Congress/SCOTUS Judge/Executive cabinet member)

Wars:

  1. Israel-palestine conflict reignites
  2. Ukraine war ceasefire lasts greater than 30 days at any point
  3. China invades Taiwan
  4. US officially at war with Venezuela at any point

China:

  1. Official GDP growth below 4%
  2. Youth unemployment (16-24) reported above 15% at any point in 2026
  3. Major Chinese property developer (top 20) enters formal bankruptcy
  4. SMIC achieves volume production at 5nm or below

Economics:

  1. US enters recession (2 consecutive quarters negative GDP growth)
  2. S&P 500 higher on 12/31/26 than 12/31/25
  3. US unemployment rate exceeds 5% at any point
  4. Bitcoin above $150k at any point
  5. YoY inflation exceeds 4%

Technology:

  1. Starship upper stage (Ship) successfully lands (caught or propulsive landing)
  2. Blue Origin New Glenn completes 5+ successful launches
  3. Tesla releases vehicle with SAE Level 4 autonomy to consumers
  4. US approves new nuclear reactor construction (not SMR)

AI: 1. Yudkowski declares AGI/ASI Achieved: 10% 2. We have federal regulation passed through congress to regulate AI: 30% 3. Anthropic announces IPO: 60% 4. A Chinese model is released that is widely considered to be the best coding model(not just on price per token): 10% 5. AI System wins an award for a significant contribution in mathematics: 50% 6. A lab releases a fully autonomous drop-in worker agent that at least five fortune 200 companies implement: 30% 7. OpenAI revenue exceeds $30 billion: 80% 8. A frontier lab experiences a security incident that requires public disclosure:20% US Domestic politics: 1. Democrats have a majority in the House: 80% 2. Democrats have a majority in the Senate: 60% 3. Trump Approval rating exceeds 50% at any point: 10% 4. A government shutdown exceeds 14 days: 30% 5. total deportation in 2026 exceed 500k: 10% 6. Mamadani implements fare free busses city wide: 40% 7. Mamdani implements at least three state run grocery stores: 15% 8. Trump is impeached: 20% 9. A Major political figure is assassinated(Congress/SCOTUS Judge/Executive cabinet member):10% Wars: 1. Israel-palestine conflict reignites: 20% 2. Ukraine war ceasefire lasts greater than 30 days at any point: 20% 3. China invades Taiwan: 10% 4. US officially at war with Venezuela at any point: 20% China: 1. Official GDP growth below 4%: 25% 2. Youth unemployment (16-24) reported above 15% at any point in 2026: 30% 3. Major Chinese property developer (top 20) enters formal bankruptcy:40% 4. SMIC achieves volume production at 5nm or below: 10% Economics: 1. US enters recession (2 consecutive quarters negative GDP growth): 25% 2. S&P 500 higher on 12/31/26 than 12/31/25: 70% 3. US unemployment rate exceeds 5% at any point: 50% 4. Bitcoin above $150k at any point: 50% 5. YoY inflation exceeds 4%: 50% Technology: 1. Starship upper stage (Ship) successfully lands (caught or propulsive landing): 60% 2. Blue Origin New Glenn completes 5+ successful launches: 65% 3. Tesla releases vehicle with SAE Level 4 autonomy to consumers: 50% 4. US approves new nuclear reactor construction (not SMR): 30%

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France may be far away for you, but in my opinion, the consequences of this prediction will have repercussions throughout the world. France's deficit is well over 5% of GDP and France has no functioning government. There is no majority in parliament. Furthermore, there are no libertarian parties in France. Government spending is rising inexorably. France's credit rating has already been downgraded several times by the rating agencies – and quite rightly so. Currently, the ECB is buying bonds through the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI). The TPI is equivalent to the central bank printing money for a country, completely contradicts the purpose of the ECB's introduction, and will inevitably leads to inflation. However, the ECB is only allowed to buy bonds on the secondary market. Now for my prediction for 2026: at some point, the market will stop buying French bonds, causing interest rates to explode, which will lead to a severe euro crisis, the collapse of the euro and – since this will not be accepted – introduction of capital controls and the introduction of the EUSSR. If this doesn´t happen in 2026, it will come at latest 2027. The only thing that can save France from being the cause of a global crisis is if the currency crisis hits the US first.

That's certainly a big prediction. I'd put something like 15% odds on a big Euro crisis, what do you think would be a reasonable likelihood?

Yes, 15-25% is also my feeling. Maybe more. Because it is possible be that the countermeasures will last much longer. Germany was bankrupt in 1917, yet it took until 1924 for the full crash to come...

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