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aqouta  13d ago (text post)   Edited 12d ago   835 thread views

2026 prediction thread

As we roll into the end of 2025 I think it'd be good to have a thread in the rationalist tradition of putting down predictions with confidence ratings for 2026. Feel free to take the my list and make your own predictions off them and/or add new things to predict and I'll add them to the op with my own prediction. I'll put my predictions in spoilers at the end. Feel free to critique other people's predictions but for fairness if you're going to say someone's prediction is wrong you should supply your own odds as well. Of course let me know if any of these categories are under defined.

By December 31st 2026

AI:

  1. Yudkowski declares AGI/ASI Achieved
  2. We have federal regulation passed through congress to regulate AI
  3. Anthropic announces IPO
  4. A Chinese model is released that is widely considered to be the best coding model(not just on price per token)
  5. AI System wins an award for a significant contribution in mathematics
  6. A lab releases a fully autonomous drop-in worker agent that at least five fortune 200 companies implement
  7. OpenAI revenue exceeds $30 billion
  8. A frontier lab experiences a security incident that requires public disclosure

US Domestic politics:

  1. Democrats have a majority in the House
  2. Democrats have a majority in the Senate
  3. Trump Approval rating exceeds 50% at any point
  4. A government shutdown exceeds 14 days
  5. total deportation in 2026 exceed 500k
  6. Mamadani implements fare free busses city wide
  7. Mamdani implements at least three state run grocery stores
  8. Trump is impeached
  9. A Major political figure is assassinated(Congress/SCOTUS Judge/Executive cabinet member)

Wars:

  1. Israel-palestine conflict reignites
  2. Ukraine war ceasefire lasts greater than 30 days at any point
  3. China invades Taiwan
  4. US officially at war with Venezuela at any point

China:

  1. Official GDP growth below 4%
  2. Youth unemployment (16-24) reported above 15% at any point in 2026
  3. Major Chinese property developer (top 20) enters formal bankruptcy
  4. SMIC achieves volume production at 5nm or below

Economics:

  1. US enters recession (2 consecutive quarters negative GDP growth)
  2. S&P 500 higher on 12/31/26 than 12/31/25
  3. US unemployment rate exceeds 5% at any point
  4. Bitcoin above $150k at any point
  5. YoY inflation exceeds 4%

Technology:

  1. Starship upper stage (Ship) successfully lands (caught or propulsive landing)
  2. Blue Origin New Glenn completes 5+ successful launches
  3. Tesla releases vehicle with SAE Level 4 autonomy to consumers
  4. US approves new nuclear reactor construction (not SMR)

AI: 1. Yudkowski declares AGI/ASI Achieved: 10% 2. We have federal regulation passed through congress to regulate AI: 30% 3. Anthropic announces IPO: 60% 4. A Chinese model is released that is widely considered to be the best coding model(not just on price per token): 10% 5. AI System wins an award for a significant contribution in mathematics: 50% 6. A lab releases a fully autonomous drop-in worker agent that at least five fortune 200 companies implement: 30% 7. OpenAI revenue exceeds $30 billion: 80% 8. A frontier lab experiences a security incident that requires public disclosure:20% US Domestic politics: 1. Democrats have a majority in the House: 80% 2. Democrats have a majority in the Senate: 60% 3. Trump Approval rating exceeds 50% at any point: 10% 4. A government shutdown exceeds 14 days: 30% 5. total deportation in 2026 exceed 500k: 10% 6. Mamadani implements fare free busses city wide: 40% 7. Mamdani implements at least three state run grocery stores: 15% 8. Trump is impeached: 20% 9. A Major political figure is assassinated(Congress/SCOTUS Judge/Executive cabinet member):10% Wars: 1. Israel-palestine conflict reignites: 20% 2. Ukraine war ceasefire lasts greater than 30 days at any point: 20% 3. China invades Taiwan: 10% 4. US officially at war with Venezuela at any point: 20% China: 1. Official GDP growth below 4%: 25% 2. Youth unemployment (16-24) reported above 15% at any point in 2026: 30% 3. Major Chinese property developer (top 20) enters formal bankruptcy:40% 4. SMIC achieves volume production at 5nm or below: 10% Economics: 1. US enters recession (2 consecutive quarters negative GDP growth): 25% 2. S&P 500 higher on 12/31/26 than 12/31/25: 70% 3. US unemployment rate exceeds 5% at any point: 50% 4. Bitcoin above $150k at any point: 50% 5. YoY inflation exceeds 4%: 50% Technology: 1. Starship upper stage (Ship) successfully lands (caught or propulsive landing): 60% 2. Blue Origin New Glenn completes 5+ successful launches: 65% 3. Tesla releases vehicle with SAE Level 4 autonomy to consumers: 50% 4. US approves new nuclear reactor construction (not SMR): 30%

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I am still hugely confused by those numbers and what they mean, and have no idea how to quantify these things, so I will just put my predictions in words.

  • Yudkowski declares AGI/ASI Achieved - Too early for 2026, but I don't really care tbh.
  • We have federal regulation passed through congress to regulate AI - Some regulation, maybe, even likely, really comprehensive one - probably not yet, too much of a moving target.
  • Anthropic announces IPO - Could be, but looks a bit too early and I understand they have enough money anyway?
  • A Chinese model is released that is widely considered to be the best coding model(not just on price per token) - Nah, don't believe it. I can give them "cheap and barely adequate if you squint enough" but "best in class, no questions asked" sounds very unlikely.
  • AI System wins an award for a significant contribution in mathematics - Plausible. I mean, it only requires one award committee to decide it. There are many award committees. Some of them are not averse to publicity, likely. And by now nobody among the normies (including me and pretty much everybody I know, for example) can distinguish "significant contribution" from a bag of nonsense anyway.
  • A lab releases a fully autonomous drop-in worker agent that at least five fortune 200 companies implement - nope, not for any reasonable meaning of "implement".
  • OpenAI revenue exceeds $30 billion - 3x current revenue seems to be a bit too much, I could go for 2x though.
  • A frontier lab experiences a security incident that requires public disclosure - very likely. Though "requires disclosure" and "is actually disclosed" is not the same thing...

  • Democrats have a majority in the House - about 50-50
  • Democrats have a majority in the Senate - same, about 50-50
  • Trump Approval rating exceeds 50% at any point - according to who? Some pollsters give him over 50% right now, some do not. Seems a bit too vague.
  • A government shutdown exceeds 14 days - 50-50, depending on how the parties see their electoral chances
  • total deportation in 2026 exceed 500k - I'd like to see it but unlikely, a lot of "deportations" counted seem to be at the border, and border traffic have gone down significantly. Low hanging fruit are already processed mostly. So likely what is left would not be enough to get 500k.
  • Mamadani implements fare free busses city wide - there probably would be some free buses. City-wide is a very vague term. In general, MTA fare revenue is ~4B per year. That's about 3.5% of city budget. If he wants it enough, he could find funds to cover it. But more likely, he would just put up some amount of free buses along the routes which had historically low fare collection rates, and declare victory.
  • Mamdani implements at least three state run grocery stores - three is a low number. Even a communist, given hundreds of billions of dollars, can open three stores that survive for a year.
  • Trump is impeached - not in 2026. Though if Dems take the House, 2027 impeachment is very likely - why not, it's fun for the whole family and costs them nothing.
  • A Major political figure is assassinated(Congress/SCOTUS Judge/Executive cabinet member) - impossible to know, but unlikely - successful assassinations are hard.

  • Israel-palestine conflict reignites - it never de-ignited, and 2026 is the year when Israel has to decide whether to go all in on destroying Hamas, or prepare for Oct 7 repeat in 10 years. I suspect Bibi will go all in.
  • Ukraine war ceasefire lasts greater than 30 days at any point - not very likely, Putin is getting the territory anyway, albeit slowly, but he has nowhere to rush.
  • China invades Taiwan - don't think so, not yet
  • US officially at war with Venezuela at any point - probably not "officially", US Presidents are very reluctant to ask Congress for an official war, and Venezuela is certainly not an imminent danger to the US. There might be some "kinetic action" though.

  • China - I abstain, don't know enough about China

  • US enters recession (2 consecutive quarters negative GDP growth) - unlikely
  • S&P 500 higher on 12/31/26 than 12/31/25 - very likely
  • US unemployment rate exceeds 5% at any point - no, likely would stay under 5%, though some fluctuation like 5.0-5.1% might happen
  • Bitcoin above $150k at any point - more no than yes, given it's at $90K now. It'll go over $100K almost certainly but $150k I think not (fair warning: I am extremely bad at predicting things like this)
  • YoY inflation exceeds 4% - very unlikely, fed is determined to keep it low, and it was under 4% since 2023. Now, if you go beyond the official numbers, there be dragons...

  • Starship upper stage (Ship) successfully lands (caught or propulsive landing) - no prediction, only hopes
  • Blue Origin New Glenn completes 5+ successful launches - as I see they only have 4 launches planned in 2026, so probably no?
  • Tesla releases vehicle with SAE Level 4 autonomy to consumers - As I understand Waymo is at level 4 for a while now, and other models in China are too. Time for Tesla to catch up! I think they can.
  • US approves new nuclear reactor construction (not SMR) - very much hope so, though unfortunately Trump doing this would mean every leftist would reflectively hate the nuclear for the next 40 years, which after they have been hating it for the last 40 years is very sad.

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