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phailyoor
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User ID: 1651
Banned by: @cjet79
phailyoor
17d ago
In other news open satellite footage has shown that daytime transit of the strait in the southern route has resumed for the first time since the mou end.
There are multiple ways to interpret this, but I suspect that Iran only has the capability to blow up one or two ships per week - irregardless of if the transit is happening during the day or if the ships are being sneaky or not. If so, and a couple ships are going to get blown up anyways every week, the logical strategy is to yolo as many ships as possible through and accept the losses. Same losses, more throughput compared to the sneaky option.
If this is indeed true, it represents a major loss of leverage for Iran. They may continue to cause economic damage in the losses of ships and cargo, but the previous total shutdown of traffic will not continue. Previously ship owners feared an overwhelming chance of getting blown up for crossing, but if the chance is only 5%, then yoloing it makes economic sense. And there is a collective action problem but the more ships that yolo it the lower the chance of getting blown up (if the interpretation is true).
For Iran to regain disruption, they would have to show they have the ability to blow up an entire convoy or most of it, but it's likely they are not being restrained, but instead lack this capability.
phailyoor
17d ago
better relations with Iran would have been justified on the grounds of cheaper pistachios alone
Iran's current regime wouldn't normalize relations even if you went and begged them. They were chanting death to America long before America tried to fuck with them in the first place.
phailyoor
17d ago
Don't forget Iran simps defending Iran blowing up random hotels because allegedly US military could be staying in them.
phailyoor
17d ago
There's literally a link you can click in the post, yet you continue mindlessly claiming that 100% of all civilian deaths in the conflict were caused by bloodthirsty Americans murdering them in cold blood.
phailyoor
17d ago
Who were the ancient Christians??? Who were they???
You're the one who keeps bringing them up.
And Trump literally committed the worst sin by slaughtering the leader of Iran surreptitiously.
I'm pretty sure it's well agreed that the Israelis murdered the ayatollah. Whether the US's participation in the war was instrumental in his death is certainly up for debate, but Trump was nowhere near ordering him to be blown up.
Additionally the list of criteria you listed is one of secular philosophy. Despite incorporating elements of christian thinking, the overall criteria is the result of secular thought.
most Ancient Christians would agree the USA system of government is structurally invalid. It is basically just mob rule. It's not different than some random street gang going to war.
Yeah and instead they believe that rule by kings an emperors is good and right. Murdering the previous emperor and taking power in a bloody coup like the Romans loved to do was a perfect and flawless example of legitimate secular authority in Jesus's teachings.
phailyoor
18d ago
If you looked at the source at all, you would see that the majority were slaughtered by the opponent of the Americans. You may argue that the conflict would not have happened without US intervention, but it was still the opponents who blew up those people.
And anyways I clicked through the source to look at some actual cases, I randomly clicked on Eighteen gay men and boys killed in Baghdad. I'm just gonna make a huuuge leap and guess that the Americans didn't have much to do with this.
phailyoor
18d ago
This situation is quite different from existing euthanasia cases because the subject did not have the ability to ask for it or consent at all. My understanding is in most past cases the subject agreed to it in some capacity or another.
If this case holds, then logically just killing vegetables and tards in general will follow. Honestly I'm not all that against it. The idea of having to take care of a disabled human for life is insanely terrifying, and I think leaving an escape hatch would sooth alot of worrying. Ideally it can even apply to the trash on the streets with brains irreversibly fried by hard drugs.
phailyoor
18d ago
I don't want to pay to throw weapons we'd need to defend Taiwan into the trash for the possibility of some distant payoff.
China's capabilities are far exceeding those of Iran, so if our stockpiles are truly being completely depleted by a 2-bit dictatorship, then they never stood a chance against China.
If anything, if this is true, then it should be a wake up call that we need to buy some new weapons that are suitable for 21st century warfare.
phailyoor
19d ago
wtf how can I be this retarded. How have I used this site for years and never intersected the mouse cursor with the hitbox...
phailyoor
20d ago
The thing with people who have a toxic past is like, can't you just not hire them? I'm sure there are other people out there who are just as qualified who aren't nationally famous criminals.
I feel like there must be some kind of other angle. Some kind of favors or backroom dealings that is securing her this position, and probably the fact it may also be a sinecure.
phailyoor
21d ago
Those sailor and pilots are going to get paid the same whether they're patrolling near iran or flying in circles for training in the middle of the ocean
phailyoor
21d ago
It's interesting the Houthis have been remarkably restrained. I even thought it was them who struck the pipeline but no it was Iran backed militias in Iraq.
Hopium but I bet the Houthis just want to win their own fight, and don't really care too much about the Iran thing except that it's distracting the rest of the world. And they know that if they start trouble, the Americans will get involved, but if they keep allowing shipping through, the American's won't touch the conflict with a 10 foot pole. The Saudi backed side has remarkably underperformed so likely they will probably turn tail and run back to their corner of the country and hunker down.
As far as oil going through the strait, IMO it is difficult to ascertain the true figures. ... Maybe someone has better data.
For osint the best I found was twitter for tankertrackers lvision_trading, phileeppos
phailyoor
21d ago
My understanding is the material in a warhead isn't that dangerous and it's mostly the fission products that cause fallout.
More likely materials would probably be the isotopes used for radiotherapy or irradiaton like cobalt 60 and cesium 137
phailyoor
22d ago
My armchair urbanist take is that exclusionary zoning (rather than density) is much more of a detriment to walking and other use cases, though I'm not sure how much this links directly with white flight and de facto segregation. I do think there is a significant potential connection, in that by making it so there's no legitimate reason for an outsider to be in your neighborhood, it makes it easy to call the cops on anyone who isn't a neighbor walking his dog or baby or something. If there's a shop in the neighborhood it brings in lots of people just coming through or loitering.
Honestly at this point I'm not even racist anymore when it comes to urbanism, I just want all the walking garbage on the streets to be rounded up and disposed of.
phailyoor
23d ago
Are you claiming you read the paper or used the model in the link you sent?
phailyoor
23d ago
Stop wasting my time sending stuff you haven't even read or tried yourself.
phailyoor
23d ago
I've written about translators a few times now, but they've been first on the chopping block for close to a decade, and yet have held on admirably with no particular impact on their employment at a macro level.
I wonder if this is because the labor stats aren't looking at the right thing. It's over for translators, like major streaming services are just slapping ai translations on most new shows.
The stats clinging on are probably mostly in asl interpretation, which doesn't get helped by gpt, and in person translation like legal, social services, and illegal alien resettlement.
phailyoor
23d ago
In other words, Coffeezilla is now on the case.
I don't get the appeal of this guy. He's just a dramaslop youtuber but he manages to drag on what should take 10 minutes into a 3 part hours long series
phailyoor
23d ago
Fair enough, you want specifically prompts,
You made claims about prompts not me. Now I'm only asking you to back them up.
But you even look at the stuff you send me? This isn't a prompt, it's an agentic workflow. And this doesn't make the ai write differently it instructs the ai to modify already existing text.
But nitpicks aside, the results from something like this aren't even good, they're just plain bad. From your posting I assume you never tried it so I suggest you do that and experience the most soulless slop writing ever.
Finetuning
People keep saying this but never share the loras
phailyoor
23d ago
You claimed:
You can prompt models to actually have decent writing style with enough effort
The paper does not demonstrate prompting a model, showing that with that prompt the writing is decent, and does not share such a prompt.
We're so incredibly far from RSI that I think safety people have no business messing with the current advancement of AI. Certainly AI models are dangerous, but mostly at the hands of enabling unskilled bad actors to approach human expert level performance on dangerous tasks.
While AI usage may be speeding up frontier AI development, mostly this happens through helping human researchers do boilerplate work faster. While an AI agent may be able to eke out a few more percent on optimizing a model to be better, a soft takeoff requires the model to think of novel, never-before-seen techniques to build a better new model, and the new model needs to be able to think of new techniques that the previous model couldn't. And even if we got a soft takeoff, it would give many chances in the future to pull the plug.
Meanwhile a hard takeoff is completely unthinkable. Current frontier AI has zero ability to self modify, only the ability to make new models that might be better than themselves. This happens on the scale of months not minutes.
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