BANNED USER: /comment/483893
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phailyoor
No bio...
User ID: 1651
Banned by: @cjet79
phailyoor
1mo ago
Standoff munitions are poor means of aggression
True but apparently the US and Israel didn't think so. Highly plausible that Iran had similar levels of optimism when they built their missiles.
Presumably he could just go "we've got Iran where we want them and now I'm going to focus on American priorities" and let the problem solve itself.
If America just walked away Iran would still continue their extortion, with noone to help sneak ships past it. So the situation would be worse than just continuing the current status quo.
do you agree that Trump leaving right now would be a good move, since Iran is already beaten?
This is a stupid question. For example Venezuela is more undisputably beaten, yet there's good reason to get more involved there, such as normalizing relations and setting up renewed resource extraction. And all of this needs some military in the region to keep things in order, even though likely they won't fight at all.
phailyoor
1mo ago
If the Oman route was 100% safe (it's not) and the old route was risky, that would be a complete loss for Iran but we'd still see ships take the Oman route. So just the fact that the ships are taking a different route doesn't say much.
It's more important to look at how many ships slip through and how many get blown up.
phailyoor
1mo ago
or a new President takes over and gives up.
Even a hypothetical jew-hating democrat president isn't going to surrender to Iran's humiliating demands. Trump is ready to slink away in defeat if Iran just lets him out. They won't let him and they won't let a democrat out either.
phailyoor
1mo ago
I want to know what my ROI is as an American taxpayer who's paying this bill. What have we won? Killing a lot of Iranians and making them spend a generation rebuilding does nothing for me as an American.
Maybe a minority opinion, but withrecent events showing Iran's capabilites, I can't help but think they would find some excuse or another to use them sooner or later. And if it were later those capabilities would be even stronger than they are now.
Iran's endgame was never to suffer under sanctions for decades while slowly losing proxy conflicts around the region. They built those missiles to be used for aggression, not jist as a deterrent.
And if so, Iran threatening shipping is not an if but a when. And the current conflict makes that then now. But what we won is not having thic conflict later when iran is stronger and china/russia is more in a position to back them up.
phailyoor
1mo ago
Get this ai slop shit off my timeline. Fuck these grifters they deserve death.
The slop trackers don't show anywhere close to the numbers given by reputable ais trackers, and osint that looks at satellite footage shows even more traffic.
phailyoor
1mo ago
Fable/Opus 5 is not the best thing Anthropic has.
Fable is just mythos gimped for safety though
phailyoor
1mo ago
Again the media perverts reality assigning hot culture war topics to situations where it never happens. When has a 13 year old white "incel" ever stabbed a female classmate to death because she turned him down? When has a young biological woman ever carried out a cold blooded mass-murder style school shooting with a "military-style" weapon?
Maybe the film is fascinating because it asks "what if X" when X never happened and will never happen. But it's so disconnected from reality that there really shouldn't be any conclusions to draw about the real world from it. More realistically, most people who have enemies have had some fantasies of brutally murdering their tormenters, that's why revenge fantasy media is so popular in the mainstream. But even in this case her fantasy is perverted into some kind of obsession with the cool aesthetic of shooting up the place, obviously pushed by evil bloodthirsty gun marketing execs and the nra.
Though when it comes to real life, everyone should know that there are some dark secrets that you just don't tell other people no matter what. You just don't.
phailyoor
1mo ago
Distortion free watermarking is pretty well understood in the academic literature. I doubt anthropic is doing anything special to make it more resilient, so if a defeat script works on the oss version, it can also be used on this.
phailyoor
1mo ago
Seems like the law is quite complicated here but it seems that at least in the US the court cannot compel a takedown of content because of s230 protections, but a domain is a different story, and domain seizures are well supported under US law. I guess the fact is you don't need a domain to host some content, so you can pass around a bare ip or onion all you want, and tell texas to pound sand. And of course go jurisdiction shopping for a domain with more permissive laws.
Domains have already been subject to pretty bad censorship, mostly private, and that's why most wrongthink websites don't have a .com. This doesn't really change anything in that respect. And of course the fact that s230 means the government can't order your host to nuke your website, doesn't mean that your host can't decide themselves to nuke the website for whatever reason they want.
Other top-level domains aren't maintained by operators in the United States or maintaining a US presence, though they're likely to play along with ICANN anyway.
There's enough arms length here that it's unlikely that a court can order icann to threaten a regional registry to take down a domain. I bet the judges won't even try, and if they do they'll be slapped down badly.
phailyoor
1mo ago
No it doesn't. Flying a plane is Nintendo-hard;
Put the average person in a plane and he won't even be able to figure out how to turn it on. For a car all you need to do is find the start button. Sure, anyone can learn how to do it with enough practice and instruction but that doesn't make it easy. In the times I've played with a flight sim game (to be fair not that many times), every takeoff and landing usually resulted in blowing up, and a flight sim game is easier than the real thing, it's literally a game.
phailyoor
1mo ago
It takes temendous skill and knowledge to even get a plane off the ground. Most people have the monetary means to at least become a recreational pilot but not the the commitment to learn. Meanwhile anyone with a screwdriver can steal a car. Tyrone joyrides happen every day and usually end in lots of collateral damage.
Doing a barrel roll with a passenger plane has likely never been done before, and likely never will ever again. Like it or not, this is a moment that all aviation enthusiasts around the world will take notice of. Meanwhile tyrome has done nothing that hasn't already been done by yesterday's tyrone.
If tyrome steals a car and sets a world record lap time or something, I think we'd all be impressed.
phailyoor
1mo ago
Of course I hate the idea of AI trained on the sensibilities of silicon valley elites or chinese communist commissars. But that's what's on the table right now. Grok is too shitty and Elon is too fickle to make his alternative worth using. And there's nobody around to put up enough money to make another good model.
In addition to his personalization shtick, Gwern also explores some other chatbot problems. I think each of these is potentially a research problem in its own right and can pay dividends unrelated to any personalization or alignment thing.
phailyoor
1mo ago
Huh my experience is totally the opposite. I checked my chatlogs with this longtime google employee I know, and I started raging at him monthly about SEO slop right at the beginning of 2023
phailyoor
1mo ago
Tried it and it doesn't work. The writing models will spend more effort bypassing your policing layers than actually doing the task. It'll come up with some twisted way to be "nu-uh I didn't use "figurative language" there" in a way that the layer will buy it. This is the creature we have created with RLVR.
Once added a requirement that all entries in bulleted lists need to be verified against a certain criteria. Instead of verifying the criteria, it replaced all the bulleted lists with numbered lists.
phailyoor
1mo ago
This is a very standard SEO article: it's got a nice list hook in the title; Good number of links, both internal and external; Couple of CTAs; etc. etc.. And it's all pretty low effort: no custom design work, no diagrams, just the 1 stock cover image; no quotes, no insight; it's just a very standard presentation of the basics on this topic.
Yeah it's pretty standard. Now let's look at AI slop. Which one is better?
The human slop is a very mid fluff piece that has some useful information. The AI slop one is disgusting and its very existence is an insult to humanity.
nothing to distinguish them from a typical AI written blog
I would have to disagree with you there. They lack the "We have optimized this article using high-ranking keywords ... to ensure it not only provides unmatched value but also performs strongly in search engine rankings." part
I'm sure they put together a scalable and low cost way of doing this. For example, they mention a newsletter, it may send out requests for opinion regularly, and subscribers can send in their hot takes via a form. Then they can simply cherry pick a bunch of halfway decent responses, write 1 paragraph of exposition, and have an article in less effort than it takes to manually write one.
If you look at the other articles on that page, it's clear they're not in the business of putting a lot of effort into each article.
phailyoor
1mo ago
No. There is no such thing as cd compression. Cds do not have distortion period. He is full of shit.
phailyoor
1mo ago
Some human scuff can be a good thing. Not sure if I have enough information to make the call in this case.
Sure, I agree that llms are adequate if that's the bar, but this is quite a low bar.
If only there was a worldwide network where domain experts could share concise answers to a variety of questions. And if only there was some sort of engine that let people search this network to find the answers they are looking for. I would argue such a system could serve many queries better than an LLM can.
But alas there's no way soemthing like that could exist.
You can make an LLM avoid ... figurative language.
Literally impossible. Never seen a prompt that succeeds at this and would love to see one if you have one.
phailyoor
1mo ago
This guy is full of crap
CD distortion
Red book cd is the closest we're ever going to get to perfect undistorted audio in the mainstream. Streaming is a slight step down unless you use a meme audiophile service like tidal. 99% of listeners can't tell the difference in a blind test.
jitteriness of digital video
What?
the crap sound of 8-bit - all of these will be cherished and emulated as soon as they can be avoided. It’s the sound of failure: so much modern art is the sound of things going out of control,
8bit is perfectly in control. 8bit synth is basically an instument and artists make the music on it that they can.
The distorted guitar sound is the sound of something too loud for the medium supposed to carry it.
True, though generally made as an artistic choice rather than unavoidable.
The blues singer with the cracked voice is the sound of an emotional cry too powerful for the throat that releases it.
Singers have to practice and learn techniques to make these sounds
Which ships got charged? I'm sure you know so feel free to share here. In fact, if you're so confident you should go buy polymarket contracts and see what happens :)
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