pigeonburger
8mo ago
No, that's just how I schematize it personally. Thanks for the link, though, that's a very interesting video!
pigeonburger
8mo ago
That said, it’s quite puzzling to me from a rationality and decision-theoretic framework to incorporate these kinds of predicted value-shifts into your views.
I think it's the sign of a particularly self-aware mind. The spectrum would go like this:
- Everyone believes what I believe.
- Not everyone believes what I believe but they've always been wrong when they didn't.
- I have been wrong before, but I was always right to believe what I believe (my mistakes are only bad luck, my reasoning and my information are flawless).
- I have been wrong before, but I always had the correct position for the information I had (my reasoning is flawless but I can sometimes have incomplete or incorrect information).
- I have been wrong before, sometimes due to my reasoning, but now I am right (my reasoning was flawed, but now it is flawless). <- Most people are here
- I might be wrong. <- Most people who are not in the previous category are here
- Considering past trends in my belief, I am probably wrong now. <- You are here
Personally I have always had a hard time pinning down my actual beliefs. I have the habit of being a devil's advocate in the extreme, defending positions whenever I see a hint that they might actually be defensible. So I would probably incorporate the anticipated value shift, even if I find myself on shakier ground to defend for now.
To interrogate this a little: do you think that attempted murder should have the same punishment as accomplished murder?
It's a difficult question, but there is a compelling (to me) consequentialist argument as to why it should not have the same punishment. It's a variation on the Dazexiang Uprising issue; if the consequences are the same, the moral event horizon of having "nothing left to lose" is crossed earlier, which could harden the resolve of would-be murderers in cases where they might have otherwise hesitated. It might also encourage them to take more extreme, deadlier methods because the risk of their victim surviving and becoming a witness becomes too great. One might chose to go with shooting or stabbing when they would have gone with a less effective "softer" poisoning because the downside of failure has increased dramatically.
*EDIT: Context for those unfamiliar with the Dazexiang Uprising story; two Qin dynasty officers who were going to be late taking their men to defend a village figured that since the penalty for lateness (no matter the reason) was death, they might as well take their chances in an uprising since the penalty for that was the same.
pigeonburger
8mo ago
Reddit when it started was not full of normies.
Yeah, but it was also technically superior to the incumbent (Digg) AND appeared at a time where the said incumbent had created a window of opportunity by going through a badly recieved overhaul (Digg 2.0).
If we assume the 90-9-1 rule is right (90 percent of people are only interested in lurking, 9 percent are "remixing", sharing or commenting, and 1 percent are creators), when Digg cratered, reddit almost immediately captured the 9%. It just turns out that until about the mid-2010s, that was mostly tech nerds, but as more and more normies became constantly online, that 9% started representing them. Normies were not participating in online communities on other websites than Reddit or Digg, they were not participating in online communities at all.
pigeonburger
8mo ago
Are you selective with your votes or do you vote on most/all posts you see?
I'm selective, about 1 post a day get a vote from me each day, except answers to my comments (I tend to vote these more systematically except for the situation I'll explain on the 3rd question)
Do you find yourself upvoting people you disagree with due to the quality of their argument, or vice versa?
Yes. I routinely upvote posts I disagree with because they were well argued, and downvote posts I agree when I feel the poster argued it poorly or in an unproductive way.
Do you downvote people you're arguing with or do you leave judgement entirely to the masses?
Depends on whether I feel my reaction is emotional or not. If I feel like my negative opinion of the post is due to defensiveness about my position, I try not to vote (or I upvote to reward engagement).
Do you remove the auto self-upvote on your posts/comments?
No, does anyone do that? I mentally account for it on my posts.
pigeonburger
8mo ago
how does a pretty mainstream conservative policy agenda end up with lizardman numbers?
Half of the electorate is against because it's a roadmap for the other team, and the team it's a roadmap for has had its marching orders from the boss to say they don't like it.
pigeonburger
8mo ago
Absolutely! I've been playing the Marvel vs Capcom Fighting Collection that just came out and the game there most were waiting for was Marvel vs Capcom 2 (MvC2)
The main selling point of MvC2 was its gigantic roster (like 50 characters). Competitive play over the like 24 years the game existed identified that there are like 5 actually viable characters. That meta is stronger than in other fighting games, there is only one competitive player known to be able to beat it and yeah, he's been playing 24 years so no one's catching up to him. Other than him, forget about situations like happened at EVO this year for SF3 Third Strike: forget about a cheeky Hugo or Elena making it far into the finals.
The community had to create the norms to resolve it. Picking a meta team when your opponent signaled he was not going to play a meta team makes you an asshole in the eyes of the community. People have to purposefully play suboptimally and run low tier teams otherwise the competitive meta sucked all the fun out of MvC2.
The other alternative would be to try to get an alternative off the ground, perhaps building on active and healthy diaspora communities.
The main problem with alternatives is that it only attracts people who even see the need for an alternative, people who consider Reddit being captured by one side of the culture war is a problem. That means you get for the most part people on the other side of the culture war (of which not all of them are high IQ either, that means you probably get flooded by people who just really want a place to spam the N-word) and the very rare few people who are on the side that captured Reddit but are actually principled enough to prefer a neutral platform. If you get a site whose members are all hyper aware of culture war topics, the best case scenario is that you get a website where culture war topics dominate (see: The Motte). Worst case scenario is something like poast.
Those you are missing out on is the large contingent of not terminally online people who don't care that much or are unaware of the culture war stuff online; a lot of my friends are like this. Those who don't see it as a problem that reddit is captured, because they still get enough engagement on their posts. While you might not care about their opinions on culture war topics, you might actually want to hear what they have to say about IT, about cars, about AI, about health, etc...
To make a viable alternative, you need normies too. Reddit is a natural Schelling point for communities on any topic, until you break that aspect of it. Either Reddit's reputation has to be ruined, or you have to offer something that's technically better that becomes the first place anyone interested on a community on any topic would check out (and not just terminally online contrarians).
It all comes down to the expectations of both parties.
If there's a street promoter outside of a club trying to convince me to pay a cover fee and go inside he might tell me things like it's the best club, that they have the biggest crowd inside of any bar in the city, everyone's having a great time, probably ever. Yuge night! Maybe they even say that they've heard rumors that there's a movie star who was planning on coming tonight. If I go inside and find it to be not all that, was I decieved? I wouldn't say so, because I was talking to a club promoter; I know what they're like, they know I know what they're like, the expectation was that they would exaggerate everything to try to get me to go inside.
There is a distinction though if they say something like "after you pay the cover fee your first two drinks are free" and it turns out not to be true. Because I don't expect them to be allowed by the bar (to say nothing of the law) to say something like that if it isn't true.
Also, I would consider myself decieved if I (before marriage of course) got in touch with a girl on a dating app and she insisted on meeting me at a club, and I found out after getting there that she was a promoter using the app to bring in clients to the club, even if she never said anything technically untrue. This is the kind of lying I associate in politics with the activists that masquerade as unbiased subject experts.
Lying about “prospects” seems pretty hard to prove because they’re predictions.
So's estimating the value of an asset. Until you put the asset on the market and find out how much someone is willing to pay, you are only trying to predict what someone is going to be willing to pay for it.
There are certainly tools one can use to have a basis for estimating the value of their assets, but that is also the case for valuing a startup.
And Trump as a salesman is a lot like a car salesman, Obama is more like a startup founder pitching to angel investors.
I don't recall seeing it formulated close to that before saying that but I absolutely could have, I don't think of it as any kind of personal insight, I see it as trivially derived from other insights I took elsewhere (taking Trump seriously not literally, him talking like New Yorker, being directionally if not literally correct, etc...)
pigeonburger
9mo ago
Later reporting apparently sourced from Lebanese security says that less than 20g of PETN (Pentaerythritol tetranitrate) was placed on the batteries and then detonated by remotely overheating the battery.
Which is still terrifying to me, tbh, as I have a device in my pockets that has a significant amount of components built in a country that my country could realistically be at war with within this decade.
pigeonburger
9mo ago
As of a few minutes ago, reports sourced by Sky News Arabia claims that Mossad had placed "Pentaerythritol tetranitrate" within the batteries, and then triggered it by remotely causing a battery overheat, so kind of an inbetween scenario for my "should I be worried that the opening salvo of a war involving my country will be my cellphone blowing up my crotch?" question.
Inbetween scenario because there would have been tampering, but also it doesn't seem to have been big obvious bombs. It's concievable that China could be putting this in devices shipped to adversaries undetected.
a limited time window to use it was closing
If it is planted explosives, the time window to use it would have been very short to begin with as it would all be dependant on the explosives not being detected, and no accidental detonation occuring that would give away the plot. If I were planning something like that, I wouldn't wait more than a week or two after deployment. Apparently they waited 5 months.
pigeonburger
9mo ago
I doubt it is too, but I hope we'll find out more within the few weeks.
pigeonburger
9mo ago
Technical part is not interesting.
I don't know about you, but I carry a cell phone close to my crotch daily, I am really interested as to whether this is a lithium battery detonation due to software abuse, lithium battery detonation due to physical tampering or the detonation of implanted explosives, as it would change my behavior, especially in times of heightened geopolitical tension.
If it's purely software, maybe I'll carry my phone in a bag instead of pockets. If it required physical tampering, maybe I'll reconsider used devices, or maybe it will increase my worry about letting my phone be handled by people I don't trust (airport security in a country I don't trust, for instance, or dodgy phone repair shops).
pigeonburger
9mo ago
oh they also keep a 180k person list of enemies of the state with personal info of Ukrainian enemies which includes westerners like Elon Musk
The man who's absolutely critical to their war effort through Starlink and could trivially sabotage all of it?
Quite an outrageous claim.
pigeonburger
9mo ago
And I remember (and so does my liver) the preceding trend to IPAs in craft beers, at least in my local market during my college years in the mid-2000s: strong, sweet, meal-like belgian or trappist beers.
I do not miss them. Whatever is next, I hope it's not a return to that.
pigeonburger
9mo ago
TBH, I don't think it makes sense to rollout on a permanent basis. I don't know about you, but to me even the exploiter's side of a dystopia sounds less pleasant than an open society.
I do think though for a lot of governments it served as a rehearsal for when they believe they will need to enact those measures again, for possibly less popular reasons (for instance to curb civil unrest following unpopular laws).
pigeonburger
9mo ago
Would posing in a Trump hat qualify as a grenade?
It's kind of hard to tell if that was...
a) exactly as his PR claims it was and he deliberately did it in an attempt to show bipartisan spirit,
b) a mistake his PR is trying to spin as deliberate because the alternative is admitting he's not sharp enough to read bold fonts on a hat, or understand their significance anymore,
c) a deliberate fuck you to Harris. Of course he's not going to officially endorse Trump or anything that dramatic but "accidentally" putting a very embarassing picture like that in the news is not exactly going to help her. Has he even ever been photographed wearing Harris campaign merch?
pigeonburger
9mo ago
I've been mostly playing old fighting games these days (with some forays back into deckbuilders like Slay the Spire and Balatro once in a while). I'm hyping myself up for the release of the MvC Collection on thursday. And building up the hype for the Fighting Collection 2 next year.
Honestly I don't know why I'm so excited about this; I could play MvC2 or CvS2 other ways at any time, for free. But there's something about having the game legally that's exciting and that I can't explain.
pigeonburger
9mo ago
They have their own topics on which they'll ignore the other side's nuanced opinions and just go by what's most convenient to assume the other side's saying. Accusations of "communism" from that side are often like that.
pigeonburger
9mo ago
Are you saying that "feels > reals" doesn't apply to Trump's base as well? It is the human condition, not specific to one party or group.
I am definitely not saying that. It is absolutely universal.
pigeonburger
9mo ago
You're missing that feels > reals. To the Democrats and to a sizeable chunk of unaligned it's not a complex philosophical or political issue with any nuances. There's the good guys who want abortion to be more accessible and the bad guys who want it to be less accessible (either due to ignorance or for cartoonishly evil reasons). Anyone who says it should be up to the states is for making it less accessible, because the position they were working from is it being federally protected. The idea that one could personally wish for it to be available but shouldn't be a federal matter does not register because Democrats consider government as a tool to use and not a neutral umpire enforcing rules and codes. It's baked in to both parties' core identity; in a democracy the majority votes and gets their way, but a republic is a specific structure.
Previous Republicans gestured at reducing accessibility but it didn't change. Due to Trump's supreme court nominations, abortion is less accessible. Nevermind that it's just he was in charge when something Republicans were working on for decades reached a tipping point, his presidency is the one that put the final nails in the coffin of Roe v Wade, so he's the worse of them all.
I do own a bike but I rarely use it because using it involves bringing it in from my back balcony, through my apartment to the front door, then carrying it downstairs 2 floors (and all that in reverse when I'll be back, maybe tired). Then I have to carry a lock, I have to find a place to lock it at my destination and hope it's still there when I go get it. And that's a normal bike, NOT an e-bike, which is usually heavier, more expensive and appealing to thieves, and adds the concern of having to have it topped off before I take it out.
Browsing quickly, it seems the low-end of the "worth buying" ebikes starts around 750$ (so close to 1000$CAD). Mechanical components and batteries wear off on bikes, and those bikes at the low-end of the spectrum are likely Aliexpress specials that you cannot expect to get any significant post-sales service for. This is also no counting any electricity cost.
The local bike share program is 107$CAD from mid-april to mid-november (the months non-crazy dedicated "bike people" would consider riding in). After that it's 0$ for any number of "up to 45 minutes" rides in non-electric bikes, or 17c CAD/minute for an ebike.
Unless it's for daily commute, and/or you live at the ground floor and have a safe place to keep your bike, I can see the bike share system having massive appeal!
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