pigeonburger
1yr ago
his current 10-4 workday
I'm sure if the Chinese decided to invade Taiwan they'll wait until those hours as a courtesy.
What would happen is they'd do it in the middle of the night, his aides would wake Biden up and he'd insist they put him on a call with Mao so he can talk him off this.
Him not running, so basically admitting he's not mentally sharp anymore, but remaining in office brings really uncomfortable questions for the Democratic nominee to answer (provided someone with a microphone and some reach in the public asks them).
Like "If Joe is not in condition to run, do you believe he is capable of taking charge of the most demanding office on earth? If he's not, who's in charge? Do you support this? Why aren't you (or your party) invoking the 25th? Aren't you irresponsibly gambling with the nation that there won't be a sudden crisis that will demand the President to act quickly and decisively until inauguration? Don't you think that our adversaries might see the Commander-in-Chief being unfit as a unique window of opportunity?"
If the media won't ask these questions, you can be sure the Republican campaign advertising will. "Kamala/Gavin/Gretchen/whoever thinks it's fine that america be without competent leadership for months. Should you trust the judgement of someone who leaves Dementia Joe with control of the nuclear football?"
pigeonburger
1yr ago
Exactly, expressing the idea that maybe unlimited immigration from absolutely anywhere, or unlimited free trade from absolutely anywhere are not unalloyed goods is, or was, outside the overton window regardless of who said it. Anyone who would express it would have gotten the same treatment. Trump noticed a majority of people still largely held that opinion even if they could not express it, saw an opportunity there, so he went and stood outside the window, drawing all the aggro to him. And since he's a legendary tank, to keep the MMORPG allegory going, he's somehow doing fine, and now the overton window is a bit wider than it was before. Outside of the specifics of his first and presumed second presidency, of whether he's too pro-Israel or too close to Russia, or of whether he's capable of wielding the executive bureaucracy effectively, at least his ability to take the slings and arrows is unmatched, and his forceful widening of the overton window was probably a necessary first step for any actual move to the right (or neutralisation of leftward drift).
I expressed the same idea a while back and people thought I was crazy. Even if the Democrats/deep state were not so terrified of another Trump presidency (which they might not be, Trump is a moderate and after 4 years they should know by now he's not a madman either), the thought of losing to him in a rematch is unthinkable, because it means unmistakably that after having had an A/B comparison of a populist and of the rule of the enlightened, the population prefers the populist. And that means they can't spin the election as anything but a complete repudiation of the last four years; it cannot be dismissed as the people being dazzled by some fresh new candidate, it's "this was shit, give us back the guy we had before". To avoid that, I thought they would quickly embrace ANY option, even letting the Republicans win and sweep, as long as Trump is not the one to do it, and offering amnesty in exchange for retirement could have been an option.
It's also especially personal and insulting for Biden himself, to the extent he's aware of it; being behind the guy you were supposed to replace in the polls. I think he refuses to leave because the only two ways for his legacy not to be that of a failure, is to retire while he's ahead in the polls (in which case, he'll think "Do I really HAVE to retire then?") or beat Trump himself. Well, before he possibly could have made the offer to exchange amnesty for retirement and added his retirement on top, that would have avoided him the humiliation of being beat by Trump (or of retiring because he's polling behind Trump). Both of them could have made a cute gesture like playing a game of golf together and then their legacy would have at least the positive note that they put themselves aside to help the country heal from its division or something. But it's looking like it's too late for that, now Trump holds almost all the cards, save from election day shenanigans, so I don't think he'll be inclined to accept, yeah.
I think the smarter Democrats will quickly learn to see as a positive that lawfare is not paying out, because they could soon be the defendants. Though I have to say that the recent assassination attempt reduces the likelihood of Trump retaliating, I believe. (he wants his legacy to be that of a uniter, and the attack gave him a path to that if he acts the bigger man)
And in any case, if Democrats want to replace Biden and have a chance in the election they need the spotlight squarely set on them, not on Trump, especially when it's clearly not even damaging his chances at election. Any attention spent on the Trump sideshow is not used to pressure Biden to step down, and then not used to build up the replacement.
pigeonburger
1yr ago
Interstellar?
Haley might try and fail, but Desantis I imagine has more political sense than do that; going against a popular figure like Trump (and by association his family) damages a Republican's brand. Jeb is a joke and a non-entity now. Rubio had to go into hiding for years to recover. The Cheney name is dirty now. Haley might have destroyed her political future. Desantis probably gave up on the primary just in time not to damage himself for 2028.
pigeonburger
1yr ago
It's pretty much the two extremes as far as the appearance of strength of the two candidates.
pigeonburger
1yr ago
There was concerns and coverage when the famous "mugshot" was released a couple of months ago that it gave Trump streetcred in the "hood", with some circumstantial evidence that it did sway some.
There's a lot more people that are convinced by a simplistic appeal to strength and power than the people on a website like this one would like to imagine.
pigeonburger
1yr ago
Democrats / media playing that card would only sound convincing to the people they already convinced long ago, and it would be extremely off-putting to everyone else. They might not be able to help themselves but do it, as the alternative, doing the right thing (and the thing that wouldn't immediately disgust anyone who could be a swing voter) means giving Trump a couple of days at least of deferential, respectful coverage (in the case of the media) and unqualified wishes for a speedy recovery to Trump and complete unconditional condemnation of the assassin (for Democrat politicians).
If Democrats had allowed some sort of positive legacy to survive from the Trump presidency and hadn't made it so personal with the lawsuits, maybe he wouldn't be so incentivized to run again. But they went and reversed everything and even deny him the objective foreign policy wins that aren't partisan politics. Likewise, for Biden, if he wasn't running against Trump the election wouldn't feel to him like a direct referendum on whether he ended up being worse than the guy he was supposed to fix the messes of; if he was facing anyone else, or was polling above Trump, he could ride into the sunset with the satisfaction of having done his job.
pigeonburger
1yr ago
It's legacy, that's what they want, at that level. No one wants to be a one term president that handed over a massive mess. No one wants to be the next Jimmy Carter.
Neither Trump or Biden has secured a positive legacy. Trump wants to be remembered at least like a Reagan, a president at least half the US remember fondly, not a one term president impeached twice. Biden's legacy if he doesn't win is that he's the guy who people elected to replace the Big Bad Trump but was such a failure that the people prefered re-electing Trump over him.
pigeonburger
1yr ago
I'm not saying they don't complain but my experience with it is that when people complain about it, it's only with trusted friends and the way they say it is as if it is transgressive to admit that they don't think it's acceptable that mentally ill people scream at them on the bus. Then it's usually followed by multiple phrases saying how obviously it's not those people's fault and how it's because we're so terrible, etc...
In some societies like China or Turkey it's shameful to have a relative who is homeless.
To compare, in western liberal cities, it's shameful to express discomfort about anything the homeless do. It's seen as a lack of compassion and understanding (the most important virtues for the WEIRD).
With the incentives being where they are, the difference in outcomes is unsurprising.
The implication is that you suck for not being able to hold your nose and step around the human feces left in the street and public transport for a couple of minutes of your day, while the homeless' life is so much worse, it sucks all day every day. This all slots in nicely with belief that affluent people with more pleasant lives probably don't deserve it, and vice-versa, the homeless doesn't deserve his shitty life.
pigeonburger
1yr ago
Maybe she just thought she would show the country her prosecutor skills by making someone squirm on the stand, but forgot that the someone was one of the top judges in the land.
pigeonburger
1yr ago
Basically, they thought they could Jedi Mind Trick the entire world into thinking they did not just see a clearly, obviously senile POTUS.
pigeonburger
1yr ago
Yeah, I think we know he isn't and wasn't but since the media were loudly claiming he was it was still necessary to assign a legit percentage probability to the idea that maybe the media wasn't crazy (and Trump was), achieving the same effect.
What I'm less sure is that the same effect isn't in play for a litteral dementia case; what's to stop Biden to have an episode and decide that he needs to resist the Soviets by sending American troops to Ukraine?
The longer they wait, the more the Democrats are going to run into problems if they want to swap Biden. There are states with ballot deadlines, fundraising concerns (ie: current funds could not be redirected to anyone but Kamala), and Biden's state is not likely to get better. Not to mention that some voters would likely feel cheated by a last minute switcharoo (an earlier one for anyone but Kamala is still a betrayal of democratic principles, but at least they'd have some time to come to terms with it). In all cases, sitting back and waiting is the right move for Trump. Once they swap Biden and he knows who he'll be facing, or enough deadlines have passed that swapping Biden would be devastating, then he will resume his regularly scheduled shitposting. If he pounces now and deliver a killing blow to Joe's chances they'll swap him out early rather than later (or not at all).
pigeonburger
1yr ago
Hillary would be fuming, I love it.
pigeonburger
1yr ago
Teaching there could become the automatic next job of any new ex-president (as long as he was not removed by impeachment or 25th Amendment), and they would all give a different class.
pigeonburger
1yr ago
I think it's important to note that heads of state, being at the apex of accomplishment in the field of politics, are subject to different incentives as the average person.
For the most part, once you've reached that point, what more can you reasonably expect out of life? You already are garanteed to be able to have most of the earthly possessions you might reasonably desire, even if you did not abuse your position for personal gain, because of the inherent value of your importance and popularity, you can make millions trivially by letting a ghostwriter write a book for you, or by making a few corporate event appearances. Most of us scramble to try to make something significant out of our brief time on earth. Becoming President is significant. If I managed to do it, did what I believe to be a good job, yet after my term my opponents came to jail me, fuck it I'd off myself and go into the afterlife smiling knowing that I won at life and they can't take that away from me.
All that to say that the regular carrot and stick that keep us mere mortals from misbehaving are not really needed for them, because what's supposed to keep them honest is legacy. When you become head of state, you become someone who will be written in history books and known about centuries, quite possibly even millenias, into the future. Trying to play whack-a-mole with the million different ways a head of state could abuse his power is useless, just make sure, since you have the luxury to select them, that the people who get there are the kind who care that their entry in future encyclopedias read more like Marcus Aurelius' than Commodus'.
Weather is a universal, if cliché, starting point. If it's summer, you can ask if they're doing something for their vacation. If it's December, you can ask what their plans for the holidays are. Sports, if your city has a sports team that has the attention of a large portion of the population (here it's our hockey team).
The only divisive topic that's allowed is sports because it's sort of an agreed upon topic most normal adults nowadays can still have diagreements on without significantly affecting their esteem of the other. Avoid controversy, avoid politics, even if you think the person agrees with you (they might not and just be keeping quiet about their real opinion) and others might overhear and alter their opinion of you over it. Others with either less awareness or stronger filter bubbles might still bring politics up, being unaware (or not caring) that the topic is divisive, in those case stick to uncontroversial, non-committal answers or statements.
You don't necessarily have to remember every little detail of their answers (if you can, though, great!), but try to remember a few points to reference next time you chat with them. If, for instance, the person tells you that they're going to stay at her parents over the holidays because her mother is sick, next time you see them, ask how her mother is doing. That kind of stuff.
It feels almost gross of me to write it down, because I feel like it is faking sympathy for my fellow humans, but I certainly needed to figure out how to have small talk myself, and it wasn't because I didn't care about others.
pigeonburger
1yr ago
I don't know how comfortable with small talk you are, but I recommend practicing it, some people assume if you don't engage or reciprocate small talk with them then you hate them or something.
pigeonburger
1yr ago
Master and Commander was great
Honestly, the whole series is fun, and since you're already past the biggest obstacle (the nautical jargon) you should check it out
Considering how millions of computers are gonna have to be booted into safe mode and have OS/antivirus files tampered with, just wait until malicious actors start "helpfully" supplying USB thumb drive images that promise to deploy the fix automatically (alongside rootkits). Rootkits that might silently disable or bypass Crowd Strike entirely.
More options
Context Copy link