That institutional inertia, i.e. the airtight legal architecture and bureaucratic path dependence, is the decisive factor in the US-Israel relationship.
And I dont believe this at all. Yes, the institutional inertia is a factor, but Israel has had such a chokehold on some politicians that it goes way beyond this. We are in a position now where the US is depleting its own missile defense in a war that serves no obvious benefits for anyone except Israel.
Re AIPAC, consider that it is a human organisation run by humans with very human judgements that are neither perfect nor 100% rational. Yet, they have been extremely competent in shaping elite opinion and supporting So yes, they want "their" candidates to win. But even if they don't, the US-Israel relationship would still be protected by institutional inertia.
This is interesting. So we are supposed to believe that hundreds of millions are being spent by what is arguably the most successful lobbying operation to ever exist, and it is all for no reason at all? Because nothing can change! Yeah, I am going to trust Aipacs judgement on this, over yours.
rudig
20d ago
I suspect know AOC is not quite as incorruptible as you would have me believe
I dont think she is incorruptible at all. However there are multiple people in line to take her mantle as leader of the left if she does not deliver. Remember AOC crawled back to DSA this year to ask for their endorsement and promised not to support the iron dome. This is after they had un-endorsed her over this. She quite obviously did this because she sees where the wind is blowing, and was worried Mamdani would outshine her as the standard bearer of the left.
Building a case gradually" suggests that you're winning tangible stepping-stone victories along the path
Yes, and winning multiple pro-Palestinian senators + winning primaries against pro-Israel incumbents in congress in one midterm, would be one of these stepping stones.
successful political movement for change is so laughable This is a clear example that you are in a echo-chamber, which is a vibe I get from many zionists these days.
rudig
20d ago
There seems to be a motte and bailey in your argument. The fact that AOC cannot completely over night turn Israel into a pariah, does not mean that she (or someone like her) cannot take serious steps to disadvantage Israel.
Aipac is spending 100 million or more each cycle now to keep their representatives in congress and senate. That is a big increase from previously. They are quite obviously doing this because "their" candidate winning is important to keep the rest of Dems in line.
these movements rarely impact foreign policy
I think we will see, but a DSA member winning statewide in a swing state (which seems possible at this point) is a rare moment indeed. It quite obviously will have knock-on effects.
rudig
20d ago
Comparisons with BLM are illustrative.
No they are not, because support for BLM rose in the weeks after George Floyds death, and then within a few month fell off a cliff. Support for ending aid to Israel is on the rise for 3 continuous years.
Let's say AOC secures both the Dem nomination and the presidency. At the end of her first term (in 2032) do you honestly think relations between the US and Israel will have significantly changed in any way?
Yes, it will quite obviously entirely change the US policies towards the whole of the Middle East, including Israels enemies. If you are in denial about this, I suspect you are in a minority, even among zionists.
Aipac is spending 40 million on one senate race in Michigan, and they spent 30 million to primary Thomas Massie.
Okay, but what has any of this actually accomplished for the Palestinian people with which the movement is ostensibly so concerned?
Well like any movement, they build their case gradually. See the pro-life movement.
rudig
20d ago
The pro-Palestinian movement in the US is absolutely an underdog compared to the zionist one, but have been very successful in shaping public opinion against Israel in the past few years.
Aipac now routinely have to spend tens of millions for their candidate to win, and the ads mostly dont even mention Israel, because they know it is a losing position in most of the country. As we know from many culture war issues, elite consensus can hold on for a while against overwhelming public disapproval, but usually not forever.
Israel have been a rallying cry for the leftist insurgents in the party and many democrats have already fallen in line, and are promising to never take aipac money again. If the august primaries goes well for the DSA types, I expect AOC to be the dem frontrunner for 2028.
rudig
20d ago
I dont see how him being Moroccan changes anything. Living in an antisemitic society is not the same as being a part of a successful political movement for change.
Suffice it to say I think he has more than a passing familiarity with the movement.
Im sure there are many lolcows among protestors, but do zionist like Meshkout ever stop to think why the American public have moved sharply against Israel in recent years, even accounting for this? Could it be that people like himself, and other online warriors like Destiny and Ben Shapiro are even more off-putting?
Dems and indys, and basically every voter group under the age of 50, have adopted the pro-palestinian movements most important political goals according to nearly every poll on the matter, so all Meshkout is revealing himself as a zionist zealot.
rudig
20d ago
I have asked a few palestine supporters how they think palenstine might treat the Jews if they were suddenly in charge.
I could write a long reply, but to keep it short:
I dont want to use my tax money to make sure jews are the ones who dominate Palestinians and not the other way around.
From a humanitarian perspective, I would prefer if they find some workable 2-state solution. There are plenty of Palestinians in the West Bank who live with constant harassment from IDF and settlers, and they mostly try to live their lives the best they can. I think that shows some promise towards peaceful coexistence being possible. Muslims and Christians also coexist in the West Bank much better than with Israeli settlers.
But again, even if it is not possible, I dont particularly get riled up over possible future bloodshed among Israelis
rudig
20d ago
No doubt there are numerous movements meeting the descriptions above, but for me the first that comes to mind is the pro-Palestine/anti-Zionist movement.
This is quite weak from Meshkout and gives the impression that he has never been a part of a movement. The comparision to NAACP is particularily hilarious, because the black liberation movement had plenty of radical elements, and the pro-palestinian movement also have orgs like IMEU that stick to respectable retoric.
To take a more recent example:
The pro-life movement including very wide ranging views on women/society:
-girl-bosses like Amy Coney Barrett
-the Quiverfull
-mormons
-some who want to fight abortions by increasing access to contraceptives, other who want to teach chastity culture.
-even som democrats
But they all had one overarching "Abortion is murder. Period. Abortion should be outlawed".
I could make the same case for the civil rights movement, MAGA, hell the american zionist movement is full of contradictory positions.
The pro-Palestinian movement is, like the pro-lifers aligned, on 1 very potent political cause: "Israel is committing genocide. We should not give Israel any of our money".
Thats it, that is the winning message according to every poll, and before that is achieved the movement is not going to fracture. If it is achieved, meaning zionist zealots are reduced to mere 20-30% of congress/senate, I expect the cause to quickly lose steam outside of select pockets.
rudig
24d ago
We have the stats from the Netherlands, non-Western, non-East Asian migrants are usually net losses in tax, they comprise the bulk of the migrant pool. Mass immigration is expensive!
I suspect the solution from many of these countries will be to pivot to Indian immigration. Most of the culture war in Europe is focused on muslims more than immigrants as a whole, and the thought leaders on the right seems quite comfortable with Indians.
The billions of dollars of aid that we give to Israel is "material", and the US depleting its missile-interceptors to defend Israel in a war started on Israels behest is materially good for Israel and bad for America.
I have to say the confidence that you have that there is nothing that could ever change the US-Israel relationship is interesting. It would also indicate that all zionist orgs who are freaking out about Mamdani or Ms Rachel, and the Ellisons buying CBS to turn it into a zionist propaganda hub, are just dumb. The should just understood like you do, that there is nothing they can do to effect the relationship between the US and Israel.
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